Latest news with #Spanberger
Politico
7 hours ago
- Business
- Politico
Republicans make a last gasp at Virginia
What up, Recast fam. On today's agenda: With her campaign far behind in polling and fundraising, Virginia GOP gubernatorial nominee Winsome Earle-Sears is set to announce staff changes later this week, according to three people familiar with campaign personnel decisions. Earle-Sears, Virginia's lieutenant governor, is attempting to become the first Black woman ever elected governor in the nation's history — and the first Virginia Republican in nearly 30 years to succeed a sitting GOP governor. Democrats and Republicans alike see the governor's race as an important bellwether ahead of the 2026 midterms and an appraisal of President Donald Trump's first few months back in office. But a recent poll from Virginia Commonwealth University has her trailing Democrat Abigail Spanberger by double digits — 49 percent to 37 percent. The latest campaign finance reports also show Spanberger with a significant fundraising advantage. Between June 6 and June 30, Spanberger raised $4.2 million and had more than $15 million on hand, whereas Earle-Sears raised only $2.3 million in the same period. Her campaign has $4.5 million cash on hand as of July 15. With little more than 100 days until Election Day, Earle-Sears is banking on a staff shake-up to help steady the campaign. 'At the end of the day, this is just … refocusing for the last push,' said one person close to the campaign who was granted anonymity to speak freely about staff reshuffling. The person characterized the move as a positive change that most staff welcomed, arguing the reports of the campaign being in peril are overblown. ''Let's rip off this tabloid Band-Aid and move on' is kind of the overall vibe,' the person added. Was The Recast forwarded to you by a friend? Don't forget to subscribe to the newsletter here. You'll get a weekly breakdown of how race and identity are the DNA of American politics and policy. It's not the first staff change to hit the beleaguered campaign. Following mounting pressure from fellow Republicans — including some within Trump's orbit who have referred to campaign staff as 'amateurs' — changes were made, including the reassignment of her campaign manager, Will Archer, a pastor with no political experience. (People familiar with the campaign say he will continue in a role focused on voter outreach.) There is also a report from NBC News that Richard Wagner, Earle-Sears' political director, has left the campaign. On top of the personnel shake-ups, Earle-Sears has run into controversy. Earlier this year the Earle-Sears campaign blasted a fundraising email comparing DEI to American slavery, where she remarked: 'Slaves did not die in the fields so that we could call ourselves victims now in 2025.' Last week, a publication called Dogwood released an audio clip of Earle-Sears in which she appeared to acknowledge the cuts to the federal workforce negatively impacting her standing with voters, telling supporters that she and Spanberger were 'neck and neck' before her Democratic opponent brought up DOGE repeatedly and began opening up a lead. Northern Virginia is home to a lot of federal workers who were targeted by DOGE, and in March the progressive Meidas Touch Network released a different recording in which Earle-Sears appeared to be downplaying the severity of the DOGE cuts. 'I've always had concerns about this race, but not because of Winsome, just because of the overall environment,' said one Republican strategist given anonymity to discuss the state of the race. 'I expected to be where we are, and when I saw a lot of the DOGE activities and Elon Musk activities having a major impact on Northern Virginia, it gave me even more of a concern.' Taken together, the campaign is amplifying the monthslong concerns that Earle-Sears does not have enough time or the right personnel in place to get the campaign on track in the final stretch. 'This is not the kind of conversation you want to have as an organization in the middle of July in Virginia politics, because voting starts in 60 days,' said Republican Chris Saxman, a former member of the Virginia House of Delegates, referring to the period when early voting begins in Virginia. Those close to the campaign say they are hoping to secure in the fall 'one or two' debates with Spanberger, a format in which they expect Earle-Sears will shine. But others remain skeptical about her prospects. 'Winsome is not going to trust anyone who comes in here in the last 100 days,' said one Republican strategist keeping tabs on the race. 'I mean, if she were really serious, she would probably fire the consultants and just get a team to try to have a respectable showing and not lose by 15 points.' We'll keep tabs on how these upcoming staff announcements all shake out. All the best,The Recast Team EX-LOUISVILLE OFFICER SENTENCED IN TAYLOR KILLING Brett Hankison, one of three Louisville police officers involved in the 2020 shooting death of Breonna Taylor, was sentenced to 33 months in prison — a sharp contrast to the Trump administration's request that Hankison receive a prison sentence of just one day. Taylor's family had been pushing for Hankison to serve a lengthy sentence. (The maximum sentence for his conviction would have been life in prison.) In a Tuesday morning post on X, family attorney Ben Crump said: 'We respect the court's decision, but we will continue to call out the DOJ's failure to stand firmly behind Breonna's rights.' Hankison was acquitted on state charges of wanton endangerment in 2022. The following year, a federal case against him ended in a mistrial when the jury could not reach a verdict. But last year, Hankison was convicted on one count of violating Taylor's civil rights by using excessive force. He discharged his firearm multiple times during the botched narcotics raid on Taylor's home. None of his shots hit anyone, but they did penetrate a neighboring apartment, where a man, pregnant woman and child had been sleeping. The deadly incident occurred when officers executed a controversial 'no-knock warrant' one night at Taylor's home in predominantly Black west Louisville. Officers said the raid was connected to an investigation of Taylor's ex-boyfriend, Jamarcus Glover, who was not present at the scene and did not live there. No narcotics were discovered. When the officers barged into Taylor's home, her then-boyfriend, Kenneth Walker, said he mistook them for intruders and fired a shot, hitting officer Jonathan Mattingly in the leg. The officers responded with a barrage of bullets, killing 26-year-old Taylor. Neither Mattingly nor Myles Cosgrove, the other officer involved in the shooting, were charged. All three officers are white. Taylor was Black. Her killing came during the height of the 2020 national protests raising awareness of law enforcement's harsh policing tactics during encounters with Black citizens. Taylor's name, along with George Floyd, Ahmaud Arbery and Rayshard Brooks, became a rallying cry at the nationwide protests calling for an end to harsh policing and systemic racism. WHAT WE'RE WATCHING THIS WEEK Epstein debacle scuttles votes — Internal party drama surrounding the Jeffrey Epstein saga brought the House Rules Committee to a standstill on Monday as several of my POLITICO colleagues Meredith Lee Hill, Mia McCarthy, Cassandra Dumay and Calen Razor report: 'House Republicans will scrap several votes this week…' And more… TODAY'S CULTURE NEWS Malcolm-Jamal Warner Dead at 54 — The musician and actor best known as Theo Huxtable on 'The Cosby Show' died while vacationing in Costa Rica. Read tributes and remembrances from Bill Cosby, Tracee Ellis Ross, Morris Chestnut and more. Josh Johnson elevated to hosting role this week — The comic and correspondent on 'The Daily Show' will get a shot behind the anchor chair this week, marking his first time serving as host of the program. Speaking of 'The Daily Show'… Jon Stewart, the program's legendary host who serves as the Monday anchor, tore into Comedy Central's parent company, Paramount, with a litany of expletives — and a song with a church choir — for axing 'The Late Show with Stephen Colbert.' Starts around the 16:30 mark here. Finally check out Tyler, the Creator's latest bop, 'Stop Playing With Me.'
Yahoo
4 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Voters still aren't buying what Virginia Republicans are selling
Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears hoped winning the Republican nomination for governor of Virginia last month would help her party move past a primary season defined by lurid sex scandals and a boiling MAGA turf war. Instead, Earle-Sears is wrapping up her first month as nominee with a major campaign shake-up — and the GOP brand is facing an unprecedented losing streak. On Thursday, Earle-Sears asked her campaign manager, Will Archer, to step aside. A pastor by trade, Archer had never managed a campaign or participated in politics before. When campaign finance filings published this week showed Democrat Abigail Spanberger outraising Earle-Sears by 2-to-1, Republican leaders finally convinced their candidate it was time to part with her inexperienced staffer. Earle-Sears' campaign reshuffle comes at a moment when Virginia's Republicans are trying, and failing, to convince voters they're still a functional party. That's proving a lot harder than Republican Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin and Earle-Sears planned, because the state GOP just can't seem to stop embarrassing itself in public. Some fumbles have been especially striking. After nearly a decade topping the ranks of CNBC's Top States for Business, Virginia just lost its coveted first place spot to neighboring North Carolina. It's a ranking Youngkin takes seriously, to the point that he made attracting new businesses and defending the state's ranking a key element of his 2021 campaign strategy. Safeguarding Virginia's economic miracle was supposed to be Youngkin's defining legacy. Good luck selling Virginians on the GOP's know-how today, when local magazines publish discount sections for laid-off federal workers and rural communities across the state brace for sweeping hospital and clinic closures. Far from being the governor who brightened Virginia's economic flame, Youngkin is now permanently tarred in voters' minds by his defense of President Donald Trump's unpopular federal job cuts. It's a reputation toxic enough to drag down his entire party. Republicans are starting to see voters' skepticism in their dwindling pool of political contributions. Spanberger's $10.7 million in donations this quarter is nearly double Earle-Sears' own $5.9 million haul. Those fundraising shortfalls cost Archer his job this week, but swapping out campaign staff won't suddenly make Republican policies popular. And the numbers get even worse the deeper you go. The campaign for lieutenant governor is also proving to be an absolute disaster for the GOP. In that race, scandal-plagued Republican nominee John Reid has seemingly given up fundraising at all. Reid raised only about $440,000 last quarter and only has $163,082 on hand, compared to Democratic nominee state Sen. Ghazala Hashmi's $3.4 million. Hashmi also has nearly 10 times as much cash on hand as Reid. At a time in the campaign when Republicans should be putting Democrats on the defensive, the GOP's top two candidates are scrambling to keep the lights on. Virginians are getting a free preview of the mismanagement, disorder and chaos that would dominate an Earle-Sears administration. Virginia's Democrats would like to make sure every voter gets a good, long look at Republicans' political circus, and they've just got a huge assist from the Democratic National Committee. On July 15, DNC Chairman Ken Martin announced a $1.5 million contribution to Democratic Party of Virginia, a notable sum for the national party to invest in an off-year state race and a sign of confidence in the party's chances in November. That money will build campaign infrastructure and hire staff in key legislative districts, ultimately allowing Democrats to reach more voters more effectively. Republicans' problems are multiplied by the fact that Democrats are competing in every House of Delegates district this year, forcing cash-strapped Republicans to spend more money on more races for longer than anyone budgeted. At their current fundraising levels, GOP officials will soon need to make tough choices about where to cut back — just as the DNC's $1.5 million cash infusion hits Democratic campaign accounts. While Democrats prepare to embark on a summer spending spree, Earle-Sears' campaign is busy fending off accusations from a top MAGA official that her campaign is a 'clown car' skidding towards disaster. Spanberger and Democrats have leapt into the lead by making this year's election a referendum on competence. Virginia's dysfunctional Republicans don't stand a chance. This article was originally published on
Newsweek
6 days ago
- Politics
- Newsweek
Abigail Spanberger's Chances Against Winsome Earle-Sears in Virginia—Polls
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. Former Democratic Representative Abigail Spanberger held a double-digit lead against Republican Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears in the latest poll of the Virginia gubernatorial race released on Wednesday. Political scientist Larry Sabato told Newsweek the poll "reinforces the widespread view that, for now at least, the Democrat is well ahead." Meanwhile, a Spanberger spokesperson told Newsweek it "echoes what Abigail has been hearing from families across the Commonwealth." Newsweek reached out to the Earle-Sears campaign for comment via email. Why It Matters Virginia's gubernatorial race in November is a key test for both political parties this year. Once a battleground, Virginia has shifted toward Democrats over the past 20 years, though Republicans have proved competitive in the state's off-year gubernatorial races. The election pits Spanberger, a centrist Democrat who previously represented Virginia, against Winsome-Sears, the state's lieutenant governor, who was elected in 2021. Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin, who narrowly won four years earlier, is ineligible to run for reelection due to term limits. The race will be a crucial test for Democrats' messaging in the Trump 2.0 era—and a test of whether Republicans can maintain support from voters who shifted rightward in the 2024 election. Former Representative Abigail Spanberger speaks in Dumfries, Virginia, on October 25, 2022. Former Representative Abigail Spanberger speaks in Dumfries, Virginia, on October 25, To Know The new Virginia Commonwealth University poll gives Spanberger an advantage over Earle-Sears, with 48 percent of respondents saying they plan to vote for the Democratic candidate and only 36 percent backing the Republican. The poll also found Democrats leading in other statewide races. Democrat Ghazala Hashmi leads Republican John Reid in the race for lieutenant governor by nine points (45 percent to 36 percent), while Democrat Jay Jones leads Republican incumbent Jason Miyares by nine points in the attorney general race (46 percent to 37 percent). The poll surveyed 809 adults, 764 of whom are registered to vote, from June 19, 2025, to July 3, 2025, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.16 percentage points. Other polls have similarly shown Spanberger with a lead. A HarrisX poll of 1,000 likely voters from May 9 to May 13, 2025, showed Spanberger up four points (52 percent to 48 percent). A Roanoke College poll of 658 Virginians from May 12 to May 19, 2025, showed her up 22 points (48 percent to 26 percent). Sabato told Newsweek that Spanberger has led every public poll so far. "This survey just reinforces the widespread view that, for now at least, the Democrat is well ahead," he said. "Of course, voting doesn't start until the end of September, and most votes are cast in the last two weeks and on Election Day." A key dynamic of the race is Trump's "deep unpopularity in Virginia" versus Youngkin's "relative though not overwhelming popularity," Sabato said. Virginia, home to many federal workers, is a state that has been hit especially hard by Trump's cuts to the federal workforce. Last November, then-Vice President Kamala Harris carried the state by less than six points, down from former President Joe Biden's 10-point margin of victory in 2020. Historically, the party out of the White House performs well in the Virginia gubernatorial race. That was the case four years ago, when Youngkin defeated former Governor Terry McAuliffe by fewer than two percentage points. What People Are Saying A Spanberger campaign spokesperson told Newsweek: "This poll echoes what Abigail has been hearing from families across the Commonwealth — that the high cost of living continues to be top of mind for Virginians. During this moment of uncertainty, Virginians deserve a Governor who is laser-focused on making life more affordable. "That's why Abigail rolled out her Affordable Virginia Plan to lower costs for Virginia families across the board — including healthcare, energy, and housing costs. As the next Governor of Virginia, Abigail will work tirelessly to make sure every Virginian can afford to call the Commonwealth their home." Former Virginia Governor L. Douglas Wilder, a Democrat, wrote in the polling report: "Virginia voters are not buying political spin. They want action on the issues that hit hardest: the rising costs of living, threats to women's rights and immigration policies. The shift from education to economic and personal freedoms shows an engaged electorate." Dr. Harry Wilson, interim director for Roanoke College's Institute for Policy and Opinion Research, wrote in a May poll write-up: "Six months in a gubernatorial election season is an eternity in politics, but one would prefer to be ahead by 17 points. More than a quarter of Virginians are undecided, and there is good news for both candidates. "Spanberger is obviously leading at this point, and she leads among independents, but a large number of Republicans are undecided, and they will most likely end up voting for Earle-Sears. The favorable rating for Earle-Sears, however, should be cause for concern." What Happens Next The Virginia gubernatorial election is on November 4, 2025. The Cook Political Report currently classifies the race as Lean Democrat, meaning it is "considered competitive races, but one party has an advantage."
The Hill
6 days ago
- Business
- The Hill
Spanberger leads Virginia governor's race by 12 points: Survey
Former Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Va.) holds a double-digit lead over Virginia Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears (R) in the state's gubernatorial race, according to a poll released on Wednesday. The survey, conducted by the Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs at Virginia Commonwealth University, showed Spanberger leading Earle-Sears 49 percent to 37 percent among registered voters in the state. The latest results mark an uptick in support for Spanberger from the last poll, which showed her leading Earle-Sears 45 percent to 35 percent. The poll's results out of the lieutenant gubernatorial race and the attorney general race mirrored the governor's race results. In the lieutenant governor's race, state Sen Ghazala Hashmi (D) leads conservative talk show host John Reid 46 to 36 percent, while in the attorney general race former Del. Jay Jones (D) leads current Virginia Attorney General Jason Miyares 47 to 38 percent. However, roughly half of Independents in all three matchups said they were undecided. Most polling out of the governor's race so far shows Spanberger with an advantage over Earle-Sears. A Roanoke College survey released in May showed Spanberger with a wide 43 percent to 26 percent lead over Earle-Sears, with 28 percent of voters saying they were undecided. However, another May poll released by the business group Virginia FREE showed Spanberger leading by 4 percentage points. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report rates the race as lean Democratic. Earle-Sears has sought to tout her work during Gov. Glenn Youngkin's administration on the campaign trail. While the governor has enjoyed high approval ratings throughout his nearly four years in office, the VCU poll released on Wednesday showed a slight decline in support. Forty-nine percent of respondents polled said they approved of Youngkin's job as governor down from 51 percent in December. Thirty-nine percent said they disapproved of Youngkin's job up one point from December. The Virginia Commonwealth University poll was conducted June 19 through July 3 among 809 Virginia adults. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.16 percentage points.
Politico
6 days ago
- Politics
- Politico
Spanberger opens early lead in Virginia governor's race, new poll shows
The centrist Democrat is leading her opponent by double digits, according to new data from Virginia Commonwealth University. Virginia Democratic gubernatorial candidate Abigail Spanberger addresses an audience at an Everytown for Gun Safety rally on April 10, 2025, in Alexandria, Virginia. |By Jacob Wendler 07/16/2025 02:22 PM EDT Former Rep. Abigail Spanberger, the Democratic nominee for governor of Virginia, maintains a double-digit lead over her Republican opponent, according to a new poll from Virginia Commonwealth University. The survey, conducted between June 19 and July 3, found that 49 percent of registered voters support Spanberger, with 37 percent saying they would vote for GOP Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears if the election were held today. That's an even bigger lead than Spanberger enjoyed in Commonwealth's December poll, which had Earle-Sears trailing her by 10 percentage points. The poll also found that the cost of living continues to dominate as voters' top concern, with reproductive rights and immigration also ranking high among Virginians' priorities. Spanberger, who represented Virginia's 7th Congressional District from 2019 to 2025 after serving in the CIA, is leaning into the issue by touting an 'Affordable Virginia Plan' that lays out her vision for lowering housing, energy and health care costs.
