Republicans make a last gasp at Virginia

Politico

a day ago

What up, Recast fam. On today's agenda:
With her campaign far behind in polling and fundraising, Virginia GOP gubernatorial nominee Winsome Earle-Sears is set to announce staff changes later this week, according to three people familiar with campaign personnel decisions.
Earle-Sears, Virginia's lieutenant governor, is attempting to become the first Black woman ever elected governor in the nation's history — and the first Virginia Republican in nearly 30 years to succeed a sitting GOP governor. Democrats and Republicans alike see the governor's race as an important bellwether ahead of the 2026 midterms and an appraisal of President Donald Trump's first few months back in office.
But a recent poll from Virginia Commonwealth University has her trailing Democrat Abigail Spanberger by double digits — 49 percent to 37 percent. The latest campaign finance reports also show Spanberger with a significant fundraising advantage. Between June 6 and June 30, Spanberger raised $4.2 million and had more than $15 million on hand, whereas Earle-Sears raised only $2.3 million in the same period. Her campaign has $4.5 million cash on hand as of July 15.
With little more than 100 days until Election Day, Earle-Sears is banking on a staff shake-up to help steady the campaign.
'At the end of the day, this is just … refocusing for the last push,' said one person close to the campaign who was granted anonymity to speak freely about staff reshuffling. The person characterized the move as a positive change that most staff welcomed, arguing the reports of the campaign being in peril are overblown.
''Let's rip off this tabloid Band-Aid and move on' is kind of the overall vibe,' the person added.
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It's not the first staff change to hit the beleaguered campaign. Following mounting pressure from fellow Republicans — including some within Trump's orbit who have referred to campaign staff as 'amateurs' — changes were made, including the reassignment of her campaign manager, Will Archer, a pastor with no political experience. (People familiar with the campaign say he will continue in a role focused on voter outreach.)
There is also a report from NBC News that Richard Wagner, Earle-Sears' political director, has left the campaign.
On top of the personnel shake-ups, Earle-Sears has run into controversy. Earlier this year the Earle-Sears campaign blasted a fundraising email comparing DEI to American slavery, where she remarked: 'Slaves did not die in the fields so that we could call ourselves victims now in 2025.'
Last week, a publication called Dogwood released an audio clip of Earle-Sears in which she appeared to acknowledge the cuts to the federal workforce negatively impacting her standing with voters, telling supporters that she and Spanberger were 'neck and neck' before her Democratic opponent brought up DOGE repeatedly and began opening up a lead. Northern Virginia is home to a lot of federal workers who were targeted by DOGE, and in March the progressive Meidas Touch Network released a different recording in which Earle-Sears appeared to be downplaying the severity of the DOGE cuts.
'I've always had concerns about this race, but not because of Winsome, just because of the overall environment,' said one Republican strategist given anonymity to discuss the state of the race. 'I expected to be where we are, and when I saw a lot of the DOGE activities and Elon Musk activities having a major impact on Northern Virginia, it gave me even more of a concern.'
Taken together, the campaign is amplifying the monthslong concerns that Earle-Sears does not have enough time or the right personnel in place to get the campaign on track in the final stretch.
'This is not the kind of conversation you want to have as an organization in the middle of July in Virginia politics, because voting starts in 60 days,' said Republican Chris Saxman, a former member of the Virginia House of Delegates, referring to the period when early voting begins in Virginia.
Those close to the campaign say they are hoping to secure in the fall 'one or two' debates with Spanberger, a format in which they expect Earle-Sears will shine. But others remain skeptical about her prospects.
'Winsome is not going to trust anyone who comes in here in the last 100 days,' said one Republican strategist keeping tabs on the race. 'I mean, if she were really serious, she would probably fire the consultants and just get a team to try to have a respectable showing and not lose by 15 points.'
We'll keep tabs on how these upcoming staff announcements all shake out.
All the best,The Recast Team
EX-LOUISVILLE OFFICER SENTENCED IN TAYLOR KILLING
Brett Hankison, one of three Louisville police officers involved in the 2020 shooting death of Breonna Taylor, was sentenced to 33 months in prison — a sharp contrast to the Trump administration's request that Hankison receive a prison sentence of just one day.
Taylor's family had been pushing for Hankison to serve a lengthy sentence. (The maximum sentence for his conviction would have been life in prison.) In a Tuesday morning post on X, family attorney Ben Crump said: 'We respect the court's decision, but we will continue to call out the DOJ's failure to stand firmly behind Breonna's rights.'
Hankison was acquitted on state charges of wanton endangerment in 2022. The following year, a federal case against him ended in a mistrial when the jury could not reach a verdict. But last year, Hankison was convicted on one count of violating Taylor's civil rights by using excessive force. He discharged his firearm multiple times during the botched narcotics raid on Taylor's home. None of his shots hit anyone, but they did penetrate a neighboring apartment, where a man, pregnant woman and child had been sleeping.
The deadly incident occurred when officers executed a controversial 'no-knock warrant' one night at Taylor's home in predominantly Black west Louisville. Officers said the raid was connected to an investigation of Taylor's ex-boyfriend, Jamarcus Glover, who was not present at the scene and did not live there. No narcotics were discovered.
When the officers barged into Taylor's home, her then-boyfriend, Kenneth Walker, said he mistook them for intruders and fired a shot, hitting officer Jonathan Mattingly in the leg. The officers responded with a barrage of bullets, killing 26-year-old Taylor. Neither Mattingly nor Myles Cosgrove, the other officer involved in the shooting, were charged.
All three officers are white. Taylor was Black.
Her killing came during the height of the 2020 national protests raising awareness of law enforcement's harsh policing tactics during encounters with Black citizens. Taylor's name, along with George Floyd, Ahmaud Arbery and Rayshard Brooks, became a rallying cry at the nationwide protests calling for an end to harsh policing and systemic racism.
WHAT WE'RE WATCHING THIS WEEK
Epstein debacle scuttles votes — Internal party drama surrounding the Jeffrey Epstein saga brought the House Rules Committee to a standstill on Monday as several of my POLITICO colleagues Meredith Lee Hill, Mia McCarthy, Cassandra Dumay and Calen Razor report: 'House Republicans will scrap several votes this week…'
And more…
TODAY'S CULTURE NEWS
Malcolm-Jamal Warner Dead at 54 — The musician and actor best known as Theo Huxtable on 'The Cosby Show' died while vacationing in Costa Rica. Read tributes and remembrances from Bill Cosby, Tracee Ellis Ross, Morris Chestnut and more.
Josh Johnson elevated to hosting role this week — The comic and correspondent on 'The Daily Show' will get a shot behind the anchor chair this week, marking his first time serving as host of the program.
Speaking of 'The Daily Show'… Jon Stewart, the program's legendary host who serves as the Monday anchor, tore into Comedy Central's parent company, Paramount, with a litany of expletives — and a song with a church choir — for axing 'The Late Show with Stephen Colbert.' Starts around the 16:30 mark here.
Finally check out Tyler, the Creator's latest bop, 'Stop Playing With Me.'