Latest news with #Stahle
Axios
03-07-2025
- Business
- Axios
Economic uncertainty casts shadow over June's solid jobs report
The American labor market keeps hanging on, even as signs of weakness crop up. Why it matters: Hiring is solid, defying expectations that the worrisome macroeconomic backdrop — huge uncertainty about trade, immigration, and the fiscal outlook — would keep more employers on the sidelines. But Thursday's Bureau of Labor Statistics report stops well short of giving an "all-clear" for the economy. Beyond the headline, labor supply is dwindling and demand for workers is narrowing. These issues could plague the labor market in the months ahead. By the numbers: Employment increased by 147,000 last month, surpassing the gain of 115,000 jobs forecasters anticipated. The unemployment rate edged down a tick to 4.1%. The government revised up payroll figures for April and May, noting that employment in the prior two months was higher by a combined 16,000 than initially forecast. The report showed that 80.7% of the prime-age population — those aged 25-54 — was employed, just 0.2 percentage point shy of the peak seen in this economic cycle. Zoom in: Conditions look less cheery beneath the surface. The private sector added just 74,000 jobs in June, almost half as many as the previous month. Jobs growth was overwhelmingly concentrated in state and local government, with less impressive gains in the most cyclical sectors — that is, those most exposed to the weakening economy. State and local government added 73,000 jobs, offsetting the continued declines in federal government (-7,000) from DOGE-related layoffs. The other big gainer was health care, which added 39,000 jobs. While the number of unemployed Americans fell, the labor force also continued to shrink for the second consecutive month, helping keep downward pressure on the unemployment rate. Another 130,000 workers exited the workforce in June. What they're saying:"There are real weaknesses in the market — including concentrated job gains, slowing wage growth, and falling participation — that have persisted for months, and there are scant signs of those concerns fading anytime soon," Indeed economist Cory Stahle wrote Thursday morning. The big picture: Stahle compared the current labor market to a sturdy tent, but one that is "increasingly held up by fewer poles." Among those poles are structural forces, including a shortage of workers from America's aging population and the immigration crackdown. There is also an "ongoing reluctance among employers so far" to layoff workers in masse, a scarring effect of the pandemic when it was impossible to find and train staff. Yes, but: There are profound economic changes underway that look set to supersede those factors; the adoption of AI is already shifting employers' hiring plans. President Trump is ending the era of free trade, making it more costly for businesses to get goods from overseas — a dynamic that will force a reckoning among companies about their other expenses, including labor.
Business Insider
20-06-2025
- Business
- Business Insider
In a rocky job market, power has shifted back to employers. Hiring is down, promotions are scarce, and RTO is in.
Companies are back in control, at least for now. Workers, in general, have lost their power after being spoiled during the Great Resignation. Career growth opportunities, flexible work-from-home benefits, and wage growth have cooled. It's getting harder to negotiate a new job and move up the career ladder at your current gig. Exclusive data from Gusto, a payroll and benefits platform for small and medium-sized businesses, showed that the rate of workers receiving a promotion, meaning a title bump and a raise of at least 5%, peaked at 14.5% around mid-2022 and has now fallen to just over 10%. Economic uncertainty is likely a reason. Aaron Terrazas, an economist with Gusto, said companies are pausing big decisions, and more employees are staying put. "It's clear that during that period of intense competition for talent, companies were using promotions as another incentive to retain their employees, prevent them from looking elsewhere," Terrazas said. Compensation and job mobility have worsened Don't expect high wage growth in the near future. Indeed data shows the year-over-year change in pay advertised in US job postings on the platform has cooled from the Great Resignation high of 9.5% in November 2021 to 3% this past April. What it boils down to: It's gotten harder to find a new job, so people are willing to work for less. A survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York showed the average lowest wage people said they would accept for a new job dropped from about $82,000 this past November to $74,000 in March. And once at a job, they're not advancing as quickly as in recent years. Gusto data showed promotion rates at small to midsize businesses declined across the board from May 2022 to this past May. Technology took the biggest hit, sliding from 17.4% to 10%. Terrazas said companies could be stepping back from their "aggressive talent retention strategies" they had a few years ago. "There's less of an urgent need for companies to lure their employees to stay in positions through promotions," Terrazas said. There's less bargaining power, especially in white collar and retail Cory Stahle, an economist at the Indeed Hiring Lab, said people looking for white-collar roles, especially in software development, have less bargaining power than in healthcare, where workers are more in demand. He added that the power has shifted to employers in retail, where Indeed data shows postings have cooled to below pre-pandemic demand. Tariff uncertainty could be a reason. Though many of President Donald Trump's plans have been paused or walked back, Stahle said "the damage" could have already been done. "With the on again, off again tariffs and a lot of the other uncertainty in the economy, businesses are a little more hesitant because they're saying, 'We're not sure what spending is going to look like going forward,'" Stahle said. People hoping to get a work-from-home gig will have a harder time finding one than in the past few years, when more companies allowed this during the pandemic. Indeed data shows the share of job postings mentioning hybrid or remote has cooled down to 7.5% at the end of May from 10% in 2022. While some companies are requiring people to work a few days a week in person, Amazon and JPMorgan are among the companies that have called on workers to be in the office every day. All hope isn't lost for workers hoping to negotiate for more. Because of how business cycles work, Stahle thinks bargaining power will shift back to workers eventually — and then employers will have the upper hand again someday, too. "It really is this tug of war, back and forth, that is driven by broader economic forces rather than some moral force," Stahle said. Stahle doesn't think people have to wait. He said if you have the skills an employer needs, you can try to negotiate what you want. "If you have an opportunity to negotiate, you should always be trying to negotiate, " Stahle said. "Always be trying to make sure that you are getting upfront the pay and the compensation and the benefits that match your skills and your experience." Have you struggled to land a promotion or find a new job in the current economy? Reach out to this reporter at .
CNBC
13-06-2025
- Business
- CNBC
‘White collar' jobs are down — but don't blame AI yet, economists say
While there hasn't been much hiring for so-called "white collar" jobs, the contraction is not because of artificial intelligence, economists say. At least, not yet. Professional and business services, the industry that represents white-collar roles and middle and upper-class, educated workers, hasn't experienced much hiring activity over the past two years. In May, job growth in professional and business services declined to -0.4%, slightly down from -0.2% in April, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. In other words, the sector has been losing job opportunities, according to Cory Stahle, an economist at job search site Indeed. Meanwhile, industries like health care, construction and manufacturing have seen more job creation. In May, nearly half of the job growth came from health care, which added 62,000 jobs, the bureau found. More from Personal Finance:Here's what's happening with unemployed Americans — in five chartsThe pros and cons of a $1,000 baby bonus in 'Trump Accounts'Social Security cost-of-living adjustment may be 2.5% in 2026 However, economists have said that the decline in white-collar job openings is more driven by structural issues in the economy rather than artificial intelligence technology taking people's jobs. "We know for a fact that it's not AI," said Alí Bustamante, an economist and director at the Roosevelt Institute, a liberal think tank. Indeed's Stahle agreed: "This is more of an economic story and less of an AI disruption story, at least so far." There are a few reasons AI is not behind the declining job creation in white-collar sectors, according to economists. For one, the decline in job creation has been happening for years, Bustamante said. In that timeframe, AI technology "was pretty awful," he said. What's more, the technology is even now still in early stages, to the point where the software cannot execute key skills without human intervention, said Stahle. A 2024 report by Indeed researchers found that of the more than 2,800 unique work skills identified, none are "very likely" to be replaced by generative artificial intelligence. GenAI creates content like text or images based on existing data. Across five scenarios — "very unlikely," "unlikely," "possible," "likely" and "very likely" — about 68.7% of skills were either "very unlikely" or "unlikely" to be replaced by GenAI technology, the site found. "We might get to a point where they do, but right now, that's not necessarily looking like it's a big factor," Stahle said. While AI has yet to replace human workers, there may come a time where the technology does disrupt the labor force. "Certainly, jobs are going to transform," Stahle said. "I'm not going to downplay the potential impacts of AI." Stahle said that openings for consulting jobs focused on implementing generative AI have been rising. Over the past year, management consulting roles with AI language accounted for 12.4% of GenAI postings, showing signs of growing demand, per a February report by Indeed. A separate report by the World Economic Forum in January forecasts that by 2030, the new technology will create 170 million new jobs, or 14% of the current total employment. However, that growth could be offset by the decline in existing roles. The report cites that about 92 million jobs, or 8% of the current total employment, could be displaced by AI technology. For knowledge-based workers whose skills may overlap with AI, consider investing in developing skills on how to use AI technology to stay ahead, Stahle said.
CNBC
11-06-2025
- Business
- CNBC
Here's what's happening with unemployed Americans — in five charts
While the unemployment rate in the U.S. is still fairly low, data shows it's not uncommon to see individuals job hunting for extended periods of time. The unemployment rate remained flat at 4.2% in May, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday. However, over the past six months, it's become "drastically harder to find a job," whether you're entering the job market for the first time or you've been looking for a while, according to Alí Bustamante, an economist and director at the Roosevelt Institute, a liberal think tank. "It's not that folks are losing their jobs," Bustamante said. "It's just that businesses are much more reticent to hire people, to make investments, because they just feel this very uncertain economic climate." More from Personal Finance:Millions of Americans would lose health insurance under House GOP megabillCheck your home insurance ahead of an 'above normal' hurricane season401(k) balances drop due to market volatility: Fidelity Bustamante and other economists say several data points beyond the headline job market numbers — the job-finding and quits rates, the share of workers who have been unemployed for 27 weeks or more, a broader rate of unemployment and the state of so-called "white collar" jobs — showcase deeper issues within the labor market. "Employers aren't hiring, they're not firing. People aren't leaving their jobs, and there's just fewer opportunities right now," said Cory Stahle, an economist at Indeed, a job search site. As career coach Mandi Woodruff-Santos put it during a recent interview with CNBC: "The job market is kind of trash right now." Here's what's happening with unemployed Americans, in five charts. The job-finding rate reflects the share of unemployed workers who successfully found a job, Stahle said. Over the past few years, the job-finding rate for unemployment has been declining, he said. In other words, people who are looking for work are not finding jobs, Stahle said. On the flip side, the quits rate reflects the share of employees who have left their jobs in a given month, Stahle said. That figure has also been declining, meaning people are not voluntarily leaving their jobs. The quits rate was at 2.0% in April, little changed from 2.1% in March, both numbers seasonally adjusted, according to the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover report by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The number of quits was down by 220,000 over the year. Hiring activity has also been down in recent years. The rate of hires was at 3.5% in April, little changed from 3.4% in March, both seasonally adjusted, per the JOLTs report. As people stay put in their jobs and employers are reluctant to hire, such factors create a "low hiring, low firing" environment, Stahle said. The number of long-term unemployed workers dropped in the bureau's latest report. However, not only is the rate still high, the recent drop could also be a red flag, Bustamente said. The share of unemployed workers facing long-term unemployment — those who have been jobless for at least 27 weeks — was a seasonally adjusted 20.4% in May, according to the bureau's latest data. That's down from a seasonally adjusted 23.5% in April. But the recent decline may not be an improvement. It could be signaling that a large number of long-term unemployed workers left the labor force altogether, he said. Considering that 139,000 jobs were added in May and about 218,000 workers are no longer in the unemployment cohort, there's a significant gap of workers who were unemployed but did not secure new roles, Bustamante said. What's more, the number of people not in the labor force jumped by 622,000 in May. "All the data point to long-term unemployment declining because people left the labor force," Bustamante said. While the headline unemployment rate — also known as the U-3 rate — has remained steady, another measure shows a clearer picture of what's happening with unemployed workers still looking for jobs, experts say. The U-6 rate includes the total number of unemployed workers, plus all marginally attached workers, and the total employed part time for economic reasons. Marginally attached workers are those who are neither working nor looking for a job — but indicate that they want and are available for work, and looked for a new role recently. There's a subset of this group called discouraged workers, or those who are not currently looking for a job due to labor-market reasons. People employed part time for economic reasons are those who want and are available for full-time work but settled for a part-time schedule. As of the latest BLS data, the U-6 rate remained unchanged from April at 7.8%. This data tells us that more and more Americans have either stopped looking for work out of labor-market frustrations, or are picking up part-time gigs to get by financially, experts say. When looking at professional and business services — the industry that represents "white collar," and middle and upper-class, educated workers — there hasn't been much hiring, experts say. Fields such as marketing, software development, data analytics and data science have far fewer opportunities now than they did before the pandemic, Stahle said. On the other hand, industries such as health care, construction and manufacturing have seen consistent job growth. Nearly half of the job growth came from health care, which added 62,000 jobs in May, the bureau found. "There's been a divergence in opportunity," Stahle said. "Your experience with the labor market is going to depend largely on the type of work it is you're doing."
Business Insider
07-06-2025
- Business
- Business Insider
Here are the winners and losers in today's job market
The winners and losers of the workforce are coming into sharper focus. If you're looking for roles in healthcare or service work, you may have a very different experience than the white-collar workforce or new grads. Overall, the latest jobs data shows that the labor market isn't looking too shabby; the number of payrolls added in the Bureau of Labor Statistics' May report exceeded economists' expectations, and the unemployment rate held steady. But that doesn't mean all workers are navigating the labor market with ease. Instead, some are faring better than others. Cory Stahle, an economist at the Indeed Hiring Lab, said the new jobs report reflects that divide. "The headline number says the train keeps chugging along," Stahle said, "but at the same time, not everybody is experiencing that same thing." Here's who's winning in the job market right now A few industries stood out in the most recent jobs report. Employment in the private education and health services sector and the leisure and hospitality sector swelled. They alone accounted for over 100,000 new payrolls in May, and over the last three months have added around 374,000 jobs. In short, if you're trying to find a job in food service or home healthcare, the job market is in your favor. Other sectors that added roles in May include construction and retail trade, although not at the same clip. Daniel Zhao, lead economist at Glassdoor, said those service sectors have powered job growth, but "all of them have slowed in the first half of 2025 compared to the back half of 2024." There were also some winners in the white-collar world. Job-stayers — whether they still want to be there or not — are at least reaping some financial rewards. Average hourly earnings for workers in the information sector, which includes many aspects of tech, shot up from a year ago, as well as pay for those in professional and business services. For the white-collar workers who are waiting out the Big Stay, that's a win. Indeed, job stayers have a bit of a financial edge right now: Their raises are now slightly outpacing those of job switchers, per the Atlanta Federal Reserve, a big change from the days of the Great Resignation. Who's losing in the job market right now White-collar workers who are actively seeking a new role probably aren't feeling too hot; neither are new grads. Employment growth in the information sector has been nonexistent since February, while employment fell by 19,000 in professional and business services during that time. The job switching pay premium has evaporated, and companies are taking longer to fill available roles. One subsection of white-collar workers has reason to be especially nervous: Middle managers are getting flattened out of corporate structures in the name of efficiency. Then, of course, there's the bottom rung of the labor market: New graduates trying to land a full-time role. The share of recent college graduates with jobs that don't require a degree ticked up in March, according to the New York Federal Reserve's analysis. Similarly, that data shows recent college graduates ages 22 to 27 had higher unemployment rates compared to the larger 16- to 65-year-old workforce, a reversal from longer-term historical trends. "There's fewer people coming in, fewer people heading out," Guy Berger, the director of economic research at The Burning Glass Institute, said. "That mix tends to favor established workers who tend to be older and tends to hurt younger people trying to get their foot in the door." Stahle said college and high school graduates are entering a frozen labor market where the quits rate is low, people are staying put, and employers aren't really looking for new folks. "We're seeing unemployment rates rise most notably for those younger workers, college graduate-age workers — which is very different than what we've seen in the past, where those workers tend to do pretty well," Stahle said. Are you a job seeker, middle manager, or new grad with a story to share? Contact these reporters at jkaplan@ and .
