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Economic Times
02-07-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
Rohit Srivastava sees limited downside, eyes fresh highs for Nifty in July
So, a lot of the negatives might get discounted, which is why in the beginning I said this quarter may be very interesting in terms of results because people may not expect great numbers but we might still end up absorbing a lot of whatever happens in terms of volatility. Synopsis Despite mixed earnings influenced by advanced taxes and GST, market momentum, fueled by liquidity and interest rate changes, is expected to sustain an upward trend. Rohit Srivastava suggests a buy-on-dip strategy, anticipating a move towards all-time highs, particularly in sectors like metals and interest rate-sensitive areas such as autos, realty, and financials. "Even though the earning season could have a pretty mixed picture given the kind of numbers we have seen from advanced taxes or from GST, but the momentum simply driven by liquidity, the interest rate changes is what will keep it perked up and therefore, purely when we are talking about the index, the downside is limited to either 25,400 or a worst case if at all it breaks that down to 25,300, but eventually we should be headed towards all-time highs," says Rohit Srivastava, Founder, Strike Money Analytics & Indiacharts. ADVERTISEMENT So, not a great day today as we can see the markets are not able to hold on to the gains, but then still the undertone is bullish, buy on dips, what is your recommendation on Nifty and Bank Nifty if at all someone wants to initiate any kind of trade positionally? Rohit Srivastava: Today is a good day to just sit back and wait for this correction to end. But the view remains that somewhere it is a buy on dip. Let the dip happen and take that opportunity because the overall trend is likely to be up. We have broken out last week out of that congestion zone that we were there for almost three weeks below 25,100. And having done that, the potential is that we will continue to add to those gains in the month ahead in the month of July. Even though the earning season could have a pretty mixed picture given the kind of numbers we have seen from advanced taxes or from GST, but the momentum simply driven by liquidity, the interest rate changes is what will keep it perked up and therefore, purely when we are talking about the index, the downside is limited to either 25,400 or a worst case if at all it breaks that down to 25,300, but eventually we should be headed towards all-time highs. Yes, of course, the index-wise markets are not really showing good signs of contribution and positivity, but if we see news flows as well as the stock specific action, there is a lot of action on that side. What are your stock specific approaches for the day? Rohit Srivastava: Well, there are sectors that you are seeing performance in, for example, metals, so that is clearly showing up in terms of positive performance which has to do more with what is happening on the dollar, which then we end up anticipating higher commodity prices and a positive commodity cycle. So, I think that is something which is standing out and the dollar has been falling for a large part of the entire week, so that helps. Second is, continue to focus on interest rate sensitive areas because the interest rate cycle is down. Even though we have had two cuts and a potential pause, there would be eventually more cuts on the table and therefore, rate sensitives is where the action will continue to build over time, that includes sectors like autos, realty, and they become interesting play and even financials, financials are probably poised to be one of the top performing sectors for the year as we go along and as credit offtake really picks up and also, they remain relatively more undervalued compared to other sectors, so that is the easy part to really focus on. But I do think other segments which have done well over the last two years including power which is being talked about less and less will also come back into focus. Since you have mentioned your sectors over here, I just wanted to figure out if there is something specific in auto that you would want to highlight. Looking at the mixed bag numbers of sales across the board, what is on your radar and any specific buying call in any of the counters auto, auto ancillaries? Rohit Srivastava: No, I cannot really recommend any stocks. Your view on the sector and auto ancillaries? Rohit Srivastava: Yes, that is what I have broadly given my outlook on these sectors. ADVERTISEMENT Specific take looking at the sales numbers of auto companies. Rohit Srivastava: So, like I said, these are near-term concerns. Eventually the interest rate cycle is what drives buying in this segment and as the rate cycle continues lower, you will see an improvement going forward in the next few quarters. So, the market might just end up discounting some of the near-term factors because you have already seen a significant correction last year in the auto index. 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Time of India
02-07-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Rohit Srivastava sees limited downside, eyes fresh highs for Nifty in July
"Even though the earning season could have a pretty mixed picture given the kind of numbers we have seen from advanced taxes or from GST, but the momentum simply driven by liquidity, the interest rate changes is what will keep it perked up and therefore, purely when we are talking about the index, the downside is limited to either 25,400 or a worst case if at all it breaks that down to 25,300, but eventually we should be headed towards all-time highs," says Rohit Srivastava , Founder, Strike Money Analytics & Indiacharts. So, not a great day today as we can see the markets are not able to hold on to the gains, but then still the undertone is bullish, buy on dips, what is your recommendation on Nifty and Bank Nifty if at all someone wants to initiate any kind of trade positionally? Rohit Srivastava: Today is a good day to just sit back and wait for this correction to end. But the view remains that somewhere it is a buy on dip. Let the dip happen and take that opportunity because the overall trend is likely to be up. We have broken out last week out of that congestion zone that we were there for almost three weeks below 25,100. And having done that, the potential is that we will continue to add to those gains in the month ahead in the month of July. Even though the earning season could have a pretty mixed picture given the kind of numbers we have seen from advanced taxes or from GST, but the momentum simply driven by liquidity, the interest rate changes is what will keep it perked up and therefore, purely when we are talking about the index, the downside is limited to either 25,400 or a worst case if at all it breaks that down to 25,300, but eventually we should be headed towards all-time highs. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like 기미 잡티, 이제 헛돈 쓰지말고 집에서 이렇게 해보세요 두아이연구원 Undo Yes, of course, the index-wise markets are not really showing good signs of contribution and positivity, but if we see news flows as well as the stock specific action, there is a lot of action on that side. What are your stock specific approaches for the day? Rohit Srivastava: Well, there are sectors that you are seeing performance in, for example, metals, so that is clearly showing up in terms of positive performance which has to do more with what is happening on the dollar, which then we end up anticipating higher commodity prices and a positive commodity cycle. So, I think that is something which is standing out and the dollar has been falling for a large part of the entire week, so that helps. Second is, continue to focus on interest rate sensitive areas because the interest rate cycle is down. Even though we have had two cuts and a potential pause, there would be eventually more cuts on the table and therefore, rate sensitives is where the action will continue to build over time, that includes sectors like autos, realty, and they become interesting play and even financials, financials are probably poised to be one of the top performing sectors for the year as we go along and as credit offtake really picks up and also, they remain relatively more undervalued compared to other sectors, so that is the easy part to really focus on. But I do think other segments which have done well over the last two years including power which is being talked about less and less will also come back into focus. Since you have mentioned your sectors over here, I just wanted to figure out if there is something specific in auto that you would want to highlight. Looking at the mixed bag numbers of sales across the board, what is on your radar and any specific buying call in any of the counters auto, auto ancillaries? Rohit Srivastava: No, I cannot really recommend any stocks. Live Events Your view on the sector and auto ancillaries? Rohit Srivastava: Yes, that is what I have broadly given my outlook on these sectors. Specific take looking at the sales numbers of auto companies. Rohit Srivastava: So, like I said, these are near-term concerns. Eventually the interest rate cycle is what drives buying in this segment and as the rate cycle continues lower, you will see an improvement going forward in the next few quarters. So, the market might just end up discounting some of the near-term factors because you have already seen a significant correction last year in the auto index. So, a lot of the negatives might get discounted, which is why in the beginning I said this quarter may be very interesting in terms of results because people may not expect great numbers but we might still end up absorbing a lot of whatever happens in terms of volatility.
Economic Times
30-04-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
We should be ready for some pullbacks; go for value theme in 4 sectors: Rohit Srivastava
Rohit Srivastava, Founder, Strike Money Analytics & Indiacharts, suggests preparing for midcap and smallcap underperformance until valuation consolidation occurs, favoring stocks with clear growth. A shift towards largecaps and outperforming sectors like banking and PSUs is expected to persist. Value themes in financials, PSUs, and metals, alongside interest rate-sensitive sectors like automobiles and realty, are anticipated to gain traction due to stable to accommodative interest rates. ADVERTISEMENT What are you making of the market moves we are seeing today? There is no move at all. We are totally lacklustre and very range-bound. Given the kind of outperformance that Indian markets have seen recently, do you believe this is the start of a little bit of a correction or do you believe this is just a one-off and we could see better days going ahead? Rohit Srivastava: It has been a long rally. At some point of time we will come to the end of at least the first leg. What I mean by that is that on a six-month basis, we probably are in an uptrend, but every uptrend will have ups and downs and once we complete this first leg, then we can actually get the first meaningful pullback. Now, have we already reached that point? It is slightly hard to say because we are not really seeing a clear-cut breakdown in the Nifty. I can say that we are in the final stage of the up move from where that can happen. But we will have to watch it for a day or two for an actual price reversal to be able to say that okay now the pullback has actually started. To do that, we probably look at 24,200 levels could be one important support. If we break 24,200, then possibly we could start somewhat of a corrective phase. As long as we are holding that, there is always the possibility that it will still stretch a little more towards maybe 24,600 before that happens or maybe even a little higher. So, keeping some upside open, watching if prices actually break and confirm a reversal, once we do get a reversal, then we will look for a retracement of the entire rise that we have seen from 21,700, so that will be more meaningful, maybe more time based, but as of now we are just waiting and watching what happens. Talk to us about the banking pack as well because Nifty Bank especially the PSU bank have been a clear outperformer, but today we saw a bit of a reversal coming in in the banking pack. In fact, the financial pack is getting weighed down by the Bajaj twins today, but on technicals, what do you make of Nifty Bank? Rohit Srivastava: Banking itself is made up of private sector banks. The weakness you are seeing is coming from the NBFC space. Initially Shriram Finance reported poor results. Now the Bajaj Group is doing the same and that is causing a pullback. But if you look at the last year's results on an ongoing basis, this is a sector that had been outperforming as well. So, it could be something that we are seeing temporarily, but in the short term it is causing a pullback. ADVERTISEMENT Now, financials have also been outperforming and therefore what we are really looking at is that at each stage, whenever there is a pullback, we really make a higher bottom than the last time. For example, the last time we were at 41,154 and we have actually moved up to 55,000. There was a case it could have gone on till 56,500. Now, we will watch key supports closer to around 54,800. If that does not break, there is a possibility we can still head towards 56,500. If that does break, then we will probably see a pullback of this rally from 49,200 and some retracement but eventually, that should give us a bottom that is higher than the previous one at 49,200. So that is the overall progress that slowly and steadily we move higher in the medium-term, but in the short term, we need to be ready for some pullbacks as we have had a strong up move. ADVERTISEMENT What about the broader end of the market? On the fundamental side, lots of actions are coming in on the earnings front on the mid and the smallcap space. But on the charts, how are you seeing the SMIDs placed right now because we have seen the midcap and smallcap have been underperforming the benchmarks, which is not a trend that we usually saw in the leg up before the correction in August or September last year. We are seeing a little bit of trend reversal. Rohit Srivastava: While the midcaps and smallcaps move up and down with the market, the expectation has been for quite a while that they will underperform the rest of the market. Now, underperforming means in the end, they go up less and that largecaps end up doing better. Basically, the outperformance of the midcap, smallcap has gone away and it might be a trend that we might see for several months before it changes – may be – in a year. So, we have to be a little prepared to see underperformance on the midcap, smallcap side for quite some time till there is further consolidation in the valuations. It may only be stocks that are able to show clearcut growth that might do well in this phase. At a very broad level, the shift has been towards largecaps that are seeing outperformance and that will continue. We will continue to see segments like banking outperform, PSUs which we have seen do well, will hold out much better than the midcaps and smallcaps. ADVERTISEMENT What are the pockets of value for you? What are the sectors you are bullish on right now in this next leg once the correction is over? Also, what sectors are you bullish on? Rohit Srivastava: There are two themes; one is a value theme where you look for undervalued segments of the market that did not get overpriced in the last rally and have corrected quite a bit and second is interest rate sensitive stocks because we are now entering a phase where the interest rate cycle has turned from rising interest rates to stable interest rates. We are now into accommodative interest rates as per the RBI policy which means that interest rates and bond yields will continue to go down and that will bring down the cost of borrowing and thus push interest rate sensitive sectors. In the value sectors, I would say on top is the financials followed by PSUs and after that, I will put metals and on the side of interest rates, it is automobiles and realty which will get some attention over time. You mentioned autos and realty. Auto, of course, on the back of the tariff reduction from the US. So, that is largely fundamental. But what is driving this surge that we are seeing in the Nifty realty index today? After quite some time, we have seen this index find its footing and once again outperform the market. How sustainable is it? Rohit Srivastava: Near-term, there is still a case for some more consolidation in the realty sector till lower rates are able to stimulate enough demand for especially housing in the lower cost region. So, giving it a quarter, if you slightly look outside a quarter then realty will be set to outperform as rates continue to come down and demand starts coming back. That is how you will have to look at it. Keep a slightly high time horizon. The bump up today might be just performance happening for a day, but in the short term, it can also pull back with the rest of the market and we should keep that in mind. But serious outperformance of the sector would probably happen a quarter or two down the line. ADVERTISEMENT (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel)
Time of India
30-04-2025
- Business
- Time of India
We should be ready for some pullbacks; go for value theme in 4 sectors: Rohit Srivastava
Rohit Srivastava , Founder, Strike Money Analytics & Indiacharts , suggests preparing for midcap and smallcap underperformance until valuation consolidation occurs, favoring stocks with clear growth. A shift towards largecaps and outperforming sectors like banking and PSUs is expected to persist. Value themes in financials, PSUs, and metals, alongside interest rate-sensitive sectors like automobiles and realty, are anticipated to gain traction due to stable to accommodative interest rates. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like What is the best way to earn $2,700 per week as a second income? News Portal Learn More Undo What are you making of the market moves we are seeing today? There is no move at all. We are totally lacklustre and very range-bound. Given the kind of outperformance that Indian markets have seen recently, do you believe this is the start of a little bit of a correction or do you believe this is just a one-off and we could see better days going ahead? Rohit Srivastava : It has been a long rally. At some point of time we will come to the end of at least the first leg. What I mean by that is that on a six-month basis, we probably are in an uptrend, but every uptrend will have ups and downs and once we complete this first leg, then we can actually get the first meaningful pullback. Now, have we already reached that point? It is slightly hard to say because we are not really seeing a clear-cut breakdown in the Nifty. I can say that we are in the final stage of the up move from where that can happen. But we will have to watch it for a day or two for an actual price reversal to be able to say that okay now the pullback has actually started. To do that, we probably look at 24,200 levels could be one important support. If we break 24,200, then possibly we could start somewhat of a corrective phase. As long as we are holding that, there is always the possibility that it will still stretch a little more towards maybe 24,600 before that happens or maybe even a little higher. So, keeping some upside open, watching if prices actually break and confirm a reversal, once we do get a reversal, then we will look for a retracement of the entire rise that we have seen from 21,700, so that will be more meaningful, maybe more time based, but as of now we are just waiting and watching what happens. Live Events You Might Also Like: 'Equities are no longer optional': Qode's Rishabh Nahar on navigating market uncertainty with quant strategy Talk to us about the banking pack as well because Nifty Bank especially the PSU bank have been a clear outperformer, but today we saw a bit of a reversal coming in in the banking pack. In fact, the financial pack is getting weighed down by the Bajaj twins today, but on technicals, what do you make of Nifty Bank? Rohit Srivastava: Banking itself is made up of private sector banks. The weakness you are seeing is coming from the NBFC space. Initially Shriram Finance reported poor results. Now the Bajaj Group is doing the same and that is causing a pullback. But if you look at the last year's results on an ongoing basis, this is a sector that had been outperforming as well. So, it could be something that we are seeing temporarily, but in the short term it is causing a pullback. Now, financials have also been outperforming and therefore what we are really looking at is that at each stage, whenever there is a pullback, we really make a higher bottom than the last time. For example, the last time we were at 41,154 and we have actually moved up to 55,000. There was a case it could have gone on till 56,500. Now, we will watch key supports closer to around 54,800. If that does not break, there is a possibility we can still head towards 56,500. If that does break, then we will probably see a pullback of this rally from 49,200 and some retracement but eventually, that should give us a bottom that is higher than the previous one at 49,200. So that is the overall progress that slowly and steadily we move higher in the medium-term, but in the short term, we need to be ready for some pullbacks as we have had a strong up move. What about the broader end of the market? On the fundamental side, lots of actions are coming in on the earnings front on the mid and the smallcap space. But on the charts, how are you seeing the SMIDs placed right now because we have seen the midcap and smallcap have been underperforming the benchmarks, which is not a trend that we usually saw in the leg up before the correction in August or September last year. We are seeing a little bit of trend reversal. Rohit Srivastava: While the midcaps and smallcaps move up and down with the market, the expectation has been for quite a while that they will underperform the rest of the market. Now, underperforming means in the end, they go up less and that largecaps end up doing better. Basically, the outperformance of the midcap, smallcap has gone away and it might be a trend that we might see for several months before it changes – may be – in a year. You Might Also Like: Short-term geopolitical jitters may pause market, but earnings will regain focus: Nischal Maheshwari So, we have to be a little prepared to see underperformance on the midcap, smallcap side for quite some time till there is further consolidation in the valuations. It may only be stocks that are able to show clearcut growth that might do well in this phase. At a very broad level, the shift has been towards largecaps that are seeing outperformance and that will continue. We will continue to see segments like banking outperform, PSUs which we have seen do well, will hold out much better than the midcaps and smallcaps. What are the pockets of value for you? What are the sectors you are bullish on right now in this next leg once the correction is over? Also, what sectors are you bullish on? Rohit Srivastava: There are two themes; one is a value theme where you look for undervalued segments of the market that did not get overpriced in the last rally and have corrected quite a bit and second is interest rate sensitive stocks because we are now entering a phase where the interest rate cycle has turned from rising interest rates to stable interest rates. We are now into accommodative interest rates as per the RBI policy which means that interest rates and bond yields will continue to go down and that will bring down the cost of borrowing and thus push interest rate sensitive sectors. In the value sectors, I would say on top is the financials followed by PSUs and after that, I will put metals and on the side of interest rates, it is automobiles and realty which will get some attention over time. You mentioned autos and realty. Auto, of course, on the back of the tariff reduction from the US. So, that is largely fundamental. But what is driving this surge that we are seeing in the Nifty realty index today? After quite some time, we have seen this index find its footing and once again outperform the market. How sustainable is it? Rohit Srivastava: Near-term, there is still a case for some more consolidation in the realty sector till lower rates are able to stimulate enough demand for especially housing in the lower cost region. So, giving it a quarter, if you slightly look outside a quarter then realty will be set to outperform as rates continue to come down and demand starts coming back. That is how you will have to look at it. Keep a slightly high time horizon. The bump up today might be just performance happening for a day, but in the short term, it can also pull back with the rest of the market and we should keep that in mind. But serious outperformance of the sector would probably happen a quarter or two down the line.
