Latest news with #SunilSubramaniam
Time of India
3 days ago
- Business
- Time of India
FIIs still cold on India; domestic flows to drive markets, says Sunil Subramaniam
"We should also keep an eye on the banking space. In the case of Axis Bank , the results were impacted by a one-off due to changes in NPA provisioning norms. Overall, banking results have been okay. Going forward, we'll need to watch credit growth and consumption trends. But broadly, I think today the market should see some stabilisation compared to yesterday," says Sunil Subramaniam , Market Expert. So, how is the market setup looking to you today? When we talk about global markets, it has been a winning session on Wall Street. Do you think that momentum will carry forward to the Indian markets as well today? Sunil Subramaniam: I believe so. After yesterday's correction, there should be a bit of a bounce-back. Also, Wipro 's earnings could offer some support. The IT sector has been under pressure due to TCS results, but Wipro's positive guidance for the future, along with LTIMindtree 's performance, should provide some comfort. As the earnings season unfolds, we're seeing resilience in results, especially in a sector that had underperformed so far. I expect IT to start picking up, particularly on a relative valuation basis. 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In the case of Axis Bank, the results were impacted by a one-off due to changes in NPA provisioning norms. Overall, banking results have been okay. Going forward, we'll need to watch credit growth and consumption trends. But broadly, I think today the market should see some stabilisation compared to yesterday. I want to dig a little deeper into the IT earnings. Most large-cap and several mid-cap IT companies have reported their numbers, and we've seen some positive commentary from Wipro, which expects the second half of the financial year to be stronger than the first. How do you interpret this, and what's your outlook—not just for Wipro but the broader IT sector? Sunil Subramaniam: The IT sector has been oversold for quite some time. Year-to-date, it has significantly underperformed the Nifty. So, a catch-up is certainly due. However, what's delaying that catch-up is the cautious stance of FIIs. From a valuation perspective, they still find China and emerging Europe more attractive, and the US remains strong in their portfolios. So, despite decent earnings, FIIs haven't returned in a big way, which is why IT remains under pressure. Now, with improving quarterly results, I expect that when FIIs do return, IT will be one of their preferred sectors. We're also waiting on Infosys ' numbers due on the 23rd. That should offer clearer direction based on the guidance they provide. But overall, like I've been saying for a while, IT is due for a medium-term pullback. Live Events Let's talk about the capital goods sector . ABB India reported its earnings yesterday. Despite a 9% decline in order intake from India, the stock posted significant gains. Thermax showed a similar trend. Do you think we're headed for another rally in capital goods, given the gradual pickup in private capex? Sunil Subramaniam: I think so. Private capex has been waiting for capacity utilisation to improve, and we're now starting to see early signs of that happening. Urban consumption remains subdued, but rural demand is picking up thanks to a good monsoon. That's a positive for capacity utilisation because rural demand, though small-ticket in nature, contributes significantly to volumes. Also, flows from domestic mutual funds and insurance companies are currently driving the market in the absence of FIIs. Their focus is clearly on the domestic economy, and the capital goods sector is at the forefront. Export-oriented sectors are still waiting for clarity around tariffs and the BTA, so domestic fund managers are cautious there. Given that, capital goods—being domestically driven—are receiving strong flows. In fact, mutual funds have also significantly deployed their cash reserves over the past two months. So as long as domestic investors are leading the market, capital goods should continue to perform well, especially with expectations of a broader private capex revival over the next year and a half.
Economic Times
11-07-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
Markets in wait-and-watch mode as earnings season kicks off: Sunil Subramaniam
The penetration and the overall numbers for the telecom sector I am fairly bullish on, but how the competitive forces at play between the three big players there is very-very hard to say. "India is not there in the letter, but the noises are coming are mixed. On the one hand he says, I am going to do a big deal with India on the other hand he talks about India importing Russian oil that he will put a 500% surcharge, the other hand he says in the brics if you are going to promote de-dollarisation, I will slap another 10%," says Sunil Subramaniam, Market Expert. We have barely seen any action on the index level over the last few days, perhaps everyone is waiting for some more action on the tariff war front, but what will your view be on the market and any sector specific ideas that you can share with us? Sunil Subramaniam: We are just at the beginning of the earning season with later today the IT bigwig going to report. So, everybody is waiting with bated breath to see how the earning season pans out. Till yesterday the BTA was top of mind. But the news that is coming out over the last day or two that I do not think we are going to see a deal in a hurry because one is, of course, that Mr Trump has been issuing letters to whole bunch of countries. India is not there in the letter, but the noises are coming are mixed. On the one hand he says, I am going to do a big deal with India on the other hand he talks about India importing Russian oil that he will put a 500% surcharge, the other hand he says in the brics if you are going to promote de-dollarisation, I will slap another 10%. Then, he is talking about copper, pharma. So, there are mixed signals. And it is clear from the Indian side also, the trade secretary and the team are again going back to the US for talks. So, now the BTA has gone off the radar in the sense it is not going to happen immediately and even the noise coming around is that there is going to be a three-part deal. There is going to be an interim deal, maybe over the next two weeks or so, then there will be a, what do they call, phase one deal by September-October and the real tough situations will probably take by end of year to solve. So, clearly the BTA does not look like it is happening in a hurry, that is the big change in the market over the last couple of days because the last couple of days everybody has been sitting up late saying is the deal going to be signed in midnight, midnight, and all of that, but clearly it is proved to be a false alarm. So, to that extent whatever built up around the expectation of the BTA is going through some amount of corrections, so you are seeing that volatility. Second, you saw that the mutual fund inflows have come on very strongly. The SIP book has touched a record high. Plus, there is about 25% month-on-month increase in net flows into equity. So, domestic fund managers obviously are sitting on a lot of cash, but they are not going to deploy it in a hurry because now the situation is going to be stock specific. Obviously, they will be wary about the export oriented because BTA if it is not going to get signed, then the uncertainty will continue. So, the focus will be clearly on the domestic sectors as opposed to export oriented sectors and within domestic, the two key things are supportive rate cut by the RBI and liquidity infusion, what is the effect on rate sensitives. Second is the flow through of the one lakh crore of the tax savings to the middle class in the budget, where are people spending it or are they saving it. The initial reports from the banking side indicates that deposits are growing strongly and credit growth is not happening. So, eager to wait and see how the realty, consumer durables, discretionary items, auto, all of these numbers are they showing A) first of all a good topline growth and second, how the EPS. So, we are entering that phase where everybody is going to be very stock specific and look for key data like the bellwethers for example in it, they will lead the charge for the entire sector. So, some of the big ones in sectors will probably set the direction, but my suggestion is that for the next two weeks you are going to wait and study these earning seasons. One good news which is there is that in the last quarter the guidances were very dim because of the tariff overhang, so that the actual numbers may turn out to be better than the guidances. So, to some extent there might be a positive fillip to the market from some of those counters. But like I said, we have to wait eagerly and watch the earnings season very closely now. I wanted to have your take on the telecom space as well and specifically on Bharti Airtel because it is the second straight day where the stock has seen decline and for today it is actually the biggest loser on the Nifty 50 side. We know that how and what kind of a multibagger Bharti Airtel has actually been, but give us some sense that from here on what as per will make Bharti move more from these levels on the higher side because what is actually in the price is actually the subscriber addition that Bharti Airtel has shown, what they have done on the 5G front and their investment plans on the 6G and well, of course, on the AGR issue as well, they are not much impacted. Give us your sense on Bharti Airtel. What as per you could be the key growth drivers if at all? Sunil Subramaniam: Well, I am sorry I cannot talk stock specific because I do not have a registration with Sebi and I do not track stocks as such. Alright. But your take on the telecom space, still bullish? Sunil Subramaniam: The overall telecom space I am bullish, but it is a very oligopoly. There are three players and one of them as you know is very challenged, seeking government support. The other one, of course, has been the aggressor and being a dedicated telecom players they are going to be much more volatile. The penetration and the overall numbers for the telecom sector I am fairly bullish on, but how the competitive forces at play between the three big players there is very-very hard to say. So, if you ask me, I would be a buyer in telecom, but I would then spread my investments across all the players there and not try to pick a winner, that is the best way because the moment you point out one as a loser you know that the other is a winner. I am overall bullish on the space because penetration has still way to go and pricing power will be with them in the days to come, beyond that, like I said, I do not want to comment on specific stocks.
Time of India
11-07-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Markets in wait-and-watch mode as earnings season kicks off: Sunil Subramaniam
"India is not there in the letter, but the noises are coming are mixed. On the one hand he says, I am going to do a big deal with India on the other hand he talks about India importing Russian oil that he will put a 500% surcharge, the other hand he says in the brics if you are going to promote de-dollarisation , I will slap another 10%," says Sunil Subramaniam , Market Expert. We have barely seen any action on the index level over the last few days, perhaps everyone is waiting for some more action on the tariff war front, but what will your view be on the market and any sector specific ideas that you can share with us? Sunil Subramaniam: We are just at the beginning of the earning season with later today the IT bigwig going to report. So, everybody is waiting with bated breath to see how the earning season pans out. Till yesterday the BTA was top of mind. But the news that is coming out over the last day or two that I do not think we are going to see a deal in a hurry because one is, of course, that Mr Trump has been issuing letters to whole bunch of countries. India is not there in the letter, but the noises are coming are mixed. On the one hand he says, I am going to do a big deal with India on the other hand he talks about India importing Russian oil that he will put a 500% surcharge, the other hand he says in the brics if you are going to promote de-dollarisation, I will slap another 10%. Then, he is talking about copper , pharma . So, there are mixed signals. And it is clear from the Indian side also, the trade secretary and the team are again going back to the US for talks. So, now the BTA has gone off the radar in the sense it is not going to happen immediately and even the noise coming around is that there is going to be a three-part deal. There is going to be an interim deal, maybe over the next two weeks or so, then there will be a, what do they call, phase one deal by September-October and the real tough situations will probably take by end of year to solve. So, clearly the BTA does not look like it is happening in a hurry, that is the big change in the market over the last couple of days because the last couple of days everybody has been sitting up late saying is the deal going to be signed in midnight, midnight, and all of that, but clearly it is proved to be a false alarm. Live Events So, to that extent whatever built up around the expectation of the BTA is going through some amount of corrections, so you are seeing that volatility. Second, you saw that the mutual fund inflows have come on very strongly. The SIP book has touched a record high. Plus, there is about 25% month-on-month increase in net flows into equity. So, domestic fund managers obviously are sitting on a lot of cash, but they are not going to deploy it in a hurry because now the situation is going to be stock specific. Obviously, they will be wary about the export oriented because BTA if it is not going to get signed, then the uncertainty will continue. So, the focus will be clearly on the domestic sectors as opposed to export oriented sectors and within domestic, the two key things are supportive rate cut by the RBI and liquidity infusion, what is the effect on rate sensitives. Second is the flow through of the one lakh crore of the tax savings to the middle class in the budget, where are people spending it or are they saving it. The initial reports from the banking side indicates that deposits are growing strongly and credit growth is not happening. So, eager to wait and see how the realty, consumer durables, discretionary items, auto, all of these numbers are they showing A) first of all a good topline growth and second, how the EPS. So, we are entering that phase where everybody is going to be very stock specific and look for key data like the bellwethers for example in it, they will lead the charge for the entire sector. So, some of the big ones in sectors will probably set the direction, but my suggestion is that for the next two weeks you are going to wait and study these earning seasons. One good news which is there is that in the last quarter the guidances were very dim because of the tariff overhang, so that the actual numbers may turn out to be better than the guidances. So, to some extent there might be a positive fillip to the market from some of those counters. But like I said, we have to wait eagerly and watch the earnings season very closely now. I wanted to have your take on the telecom space as well and specifically on Bharti Airtel because it is the second straight day where the stock has seen decline and for today it is actually the biggest loser on the Nifty 50 side. We know that how and what kind of a multibagger Bharti Airtel has actually been, but give us some sense that from here on what as per will make Bharti move more from these levels on the higher side because what is actually in the price is actually the subscriber addition that Bharti Airtel has shown, what they have done on the 5G front and their investment plans on the 6G and well, of course, on the AGR issue as well, they are not much impacted. Give us your sense on Bharti Airtel. What as per you could be the key growth drivers if at all? Sunil Subramaniam: Well, I am sorry I cannot talk stock specific because I do not have a registration with Sebi and I do not track stocks as such. Alright. But your take on the telecom space, still bullish? Sunil Subramaniam: The overall telecom space I am bullish, but it is a very oligopoly. There are three players and one of them as you know is very challenged, seeking government support. The other one, of course, has been the aggressor and being a dedicated telecom players they are going to be much more volatile. The penetration and the overall numbers for the telecom sector I am fairly bullish on, but how the competitive forces at play between the three big players there is very-very hard to say. So, if you ask me, I would be a buyer in telecom, but I would then spread my investments across all the players there and not try to pick a winner, that is the best way because the moment you point out one as a loser you know that the other is a winner. I am overall bullish on the space because penetration has still way to go and pricing power will be with them in the days to come, beyond that, like I said, I do not want to comment on specific stocks.
Economic Times
09-07-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
Retail traders provide liquidity but need guardrails, warns Sunil Subramaniam
"In India, all these people trade through brokers who are regulated by SEBI. SEBI must act through brokers—track investors' behavior. If someone is consistently throwing in large sums to recover losses, they should be restricted. Many of their families may not even know how much is being risked. So, brokers need to play a role—either voluntarily or through regulation," says Sunil Subramaniam, Market Expert. ADVERTISEMENT Not once, not twice, but for as long as markets have existed, we know that trading, over the long term, does not create wealth. It only destroys it, causes stress, and impacts an individual's overall wealth positioning. So, if the data clearly shows that trading is not favorable for retail investors, why is this activity still growing? Sunil Subramaniam: I like that you called it 'activity' and not 'investing,' which is a mistake many people make. I chose my words carefully. SIP is investing; trading is activity. Sunil Subramaniam: Exactly. What we're seeing is the gambling instinct in people. It's clear. In the absence of widespread lotteries or casinos across India, trading has become a vehicle for people to indulge that instinct. And when you look at it from that lens, in gambling, the house always wins—the casino wins, the lottery provider wins. So, it's not surprising. Now, regarding these losses—it's not that every single trade results in a loss. Traders win sometimes, but overall, they lose more. Ask any gambler: the more they lose, the more they bet. That's the core of gambling—chasing one big trade to wipe out all past losses. That's human nature, and you can't go against that context, two points come up. First, SEBI has been consistent in highlighting the risks and simplifying things to reduce potential losses. Around 20 lakh people have already stopped trading—from 60 lakh down to about 41 lakh. That's a positive move—a 27–30% drop. It shows that people are learning or becoming more cautious. Hopefully, next year, we'll see further we cannot ignore the Jane Street episode. Under normal circumstances, odds are already stacked against retail traders, but over the past couple of years, we've seen what could be described as price rigging—especially in the index. That's worsened the situation. Investigations have not stopped at just one player. Other HFTs are being examined too, which is encouraging. ADVERTISEMENT So, next year's data may show not just fewer traders due to fear or awareness, but also a possible decline in the total losses. And one final point: we tend to treat these people as the black sheep, saying they're reckless. But they provide essential liquidity to the market. As a developing market, India still lacks deep liquidity across segments. These retail participants help build that course, we must make it safer for them. They need to understand the risks, avoid chasing losses, and practice risk management. Brokers also have a role here. Instead of banning such trading, we should focus on educating participants. Financial literacy is key. Regulators should also crack down on bad actors, especially institutions. ADVERTISEMENT Yes, 91% are losing money, but the number of such participants has come down. Those who remain are typically the more aggressive gamblers, which explains why per-person and total losses have reached ₹1 lakh crore. SEBI will likely take further action. Many recent changes are still playing out. But overall, we have a proactive regulator, willing to take on big players and educate the public. There's only so much more SEBI can do, but they're doing an excellent job. Over time, I believe more retail investors will shift away from gambling-based trading and towards informed investing. That's where AMCs and mutual fund distributors must step in. We have more than twice the number of Demat accounts compared to unique mutual fund folios. These people must be targeted for education—teach them that while risk exists, it can be managed with diversification and professional advice. ADVERTISEMENT This is all part of a long journey. As a developing market, we will face these teething problems. But they're necessary steps toward building a healthy, well-regulated, deep capital market. One observation—the total loss figure has actually come down in Q4. Perhaps that's due to SEBI's curbs on weekly expiries. What more can the regulator do to curb the temptation of this so-called 'activity'? Sunil Subramaniam: I'm currently based in Singapore, and here we have Marina Bay Sands—the casino. What do they do? They track people who've incurred heavy losses and ban them because their behavior becomes addictive. ADVERTISEMENT Similarly, in India, all these people trade through brokers who are regulated by SEBI. SEBI must act through brokers—track investors' behavior. If someone is consistently throwing in large sums to recover losses, they should be restricted. Many of their families may not even know how much is being risked. So, brokers need to play a role—either voluntarily or through finfluencers are a big factor influencing retail traders. Regulating finfluencers and ensuring that brokers communicate risks—not just rewards—is critical. They must not oversell the idea of potential profits while ignoring the downside. But what more can the regulator do to reduce this kind of participation from traders? Equity penetration in India is still in single digits, compared to developed countries. Yet the number of traders is growing exponentially. Sunil Subramaniam: I wouldn't say we need to discourage this. When capital market penetration expands, more people will come in. The issue is whether they enter as investors or as traders. That's where the challenge lies. SEBI, just like the mutual fund industry allocates 2 basis points for investor awareness, should enforce a similar model for brokers. A portion of brokerage revenue should be used for financial literacy campaigns. Ultimately, people must be taught to enter the capital markets the right many enter via Demat accounts and directly into equities, only later transitioning to mutual funds. That's not ideal. Education must come curbing entry outright isn't the answer. These traders do provide liquidity. They also get to channel their gambling instinct in a regulated environment. So yes, we must regulate and guide—but not me, financial literacy is the top priority. Secondly, SEBI has advanced AI tools—that's how they uncovered Jane Street's role. Those tools can be used to study investor behavior: how losses impact decision-making, whether risk-taking increases, etc. Understanding emotional and behavioral patterns is a regulator, SEBI is already doing well—cracking down on institutional manipulation, reducing trading days, aligning expiry dates—all good steps. But the ultimate balance is this: bring more people into markets, but guide them to do it right—not through speculation but long-term investing. There are no easy fixes. But we need to keep moving forward. Equity participation must increase—but so must education, awareness, and regulation.
Time of India
09-07-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Retail traders provide liquidity but need guardrails, warns Sunil Subramaniam
"In India, all these people trade through brokers who are regulated by SEBI. SEBI must act through brokers—track investors' behavior. If someone is consistently throwing in large sums to recover losses, they should be restricted. Many of their families may not even know how much is being risked. So, brokers need to play a role—either voluntarily or through regulation," says Sunil Subramaniam , Market Expert. Not once, not twice, but for as long as markets have existed, we know that trading, over the long term, does not create wealth. It only destroys it, causes stress, and impacts an individual's overall wealth positioning. So, if the data clearly shows that trading is not favorable for retail investors, why is this activity still growing? Sunil Subramaniam: I like that you called it 'activity' and not 'investing,' which is a mistake many people make. I chose my words carefully. SIP is investing; trading is activity. Sunil Subramaniam: Exactly. What we're seeing is the gambling instinct in people. It's clear. In the absence of widespread lotteries or casinos across India, trading has become a vehicle for people to indulge that instinct. And when you look at it from that lens, in gambling, the house always wins—the casino wins, the lottery provider wins. So, it's not surprising. Now, regarding these losses—it's not that every single trade results in a loss. Traders win sometimes, but overall, they lose more. Ask any gambler: the more they lose, the more they bet. That's the core of gambling—chasing one big trade to wipe out all past losses. That's human nature, and you can't go against it. Given that context, two points come up. First, SEBI has been consistent in highlighting the risks and simplifying things to reduce potential losses. Around 20 lakh people have already stopped trading—from 60 lakh down to about 41 lakh. That's a positive move—a 27–30% drop. It shows that people are learning or becoming more cautious. Hopefully, next year, we'll see further decline. Live Events Second, we cannot ignore the Jane Street episode. Under normal circumstances, odds are already stacked against retail traders, but over the past couple of years, we've seen what could be described as price rigging—especially in the index. That's worsened the situation. Investigations have not stopped at just one player. Other HFTs are being examined too, which is encouraging. So, next year's data may show not just fewer traders due to fear or awareness, but also a possible decline in the total losses. And one final point: we tend to treat these people as the black sheep, saying they're reckless. But they provide essential liquidity to the market. As a developing market, India still lacks deep liquidity across segments. These retail participants help build that liquidity. Of course, we must make it safer for them. They need to understand the risks, avoid chasing losses, and practice risk management. Brokers also have a role here. Instead of banning such trading, we should focus on educating participants. Financial literacy is key. Regulators should also crack down on bad actors, especially institutions. Yes, 91% are losing money, but the number of such participants has come down. Those who remain are typically the more aggressive gamblers, which explains why per-person and total losses have reached ₹1 lakh crore. SEBI will likely take further action. Many recent changes are still playing out. But overall, we have a proactive regulator, willing to take on big players and educate the public. There's only so much more SEBI can do, but they're doing an excellent job. Over time, I believe more retail investors will shift away from gambling-based trading and towards informed investing. That's where AMCs and mutual fund distributors must step in. We have more than twice the number of Demat accounts compared to unique mutual fund folios. These people must be targeted for education—teach them that while risk exists, it can be managed with diversification and professional advice. This is all part of a long journey. As a developing market, we will face these teething problems. But they're necessary steps toward building a healthy, well-regulated, deep capital market. One observation—the total loss figure has actually come down in Q4. Perhaps that's due to SEBI's curbs on weekly expiries. What more can the regulator do to curb the temptation of this so-called 'activity'? Sunil Subramaniam: I'm currently based in Singapore , and here we have Marina Bay Sands—the casino. What do they do? They track people who've incurred heavy losses and ban them because their behavior becomes addictive. Similarly, in India, all these people trade through brokers who are regulated by SEBI. SEBI must act through brokers—track investors' behavior. If someone is consistently throwing in large sums to recover losses, they should be restricted. Many of their families may not even know how much is being risked. So, brokers need to play a role—either voluntarily or through regulation. Also, finfluencers are a big factor influencing retail traders. Regulating finfluencers and ensuring that brokers communicate risks—not just rewards—is critical. They must not oversell the idea of potential profits while ignoring the downside. But what more can the regulator do to reduce this kind of participation from traders? Equity penetration in India is still in single digits, compared to developed countries. Yet the number of traders is growing exponentially. Sunil Subramaniam: I wouldn't say we need to discourage this. When capital market penetration expands, more people will come in. The issue is whether they enter as investors or as traders. That's where the challenge lies. SEBI, just like the mutual fund industry allocates 2 basis points for investor awareness, should enforce a similar model for brokers. A portion of brokerage revenue should be used for financial literacy campaigns. Ultimately, people must be taught to enter the capital markets the right way. Today, many enter via Demat accounts and directly into equities, only later transitioning to mutual funds. That's not ideal. Education must come first. But curbing entry outright isn't the answer. These traders do provide liquidity. They also get to channel their gambling instinct in a regulated environment. So yes, we must regulate and guide—but not ban. For me, financial literacy is the top priority. Secondly, SEBI has advanced AI tools—that's how they uncovered Jane Street's role. Those tools can be used to study investor behavior: how losses impact decision-making, whether risk-taking increases, etc. Understanding emotional and behavioral patterns is essential. As a regulator, SEBI is already doing well—cracking down on institutional manipulation, reducing trading days, aligning expiry dates—all good steps. But the ultimate balance is this: bring more people into markets, but guide them to do it right—not through speculation but long-term investing. There are no easy fixes. But we need to keep moving forward. Equity participation must increase—but so must education, awareness, and regulation.
