Latest news with #ThirdWay
The Hill
27-06-2025
- Business
- The Hill
Missing in the Republican tax bill: A real answer to the US medical debt crisis
America is drowning in medical debt. It is a reality for nearly one in 12 adults, with at least $220 billion owed nationwide. This burden cuts across income, gender, geography and profession. Medical debt doesn't care about your politics; it quietly undermines families and the broader economy. Creating targeted tax incentives — both credits and deductions — for consumers should be on the table. Whether you cheer or groan, a Republican tax bill, approved by Congress, and signed by President Trump is likely to happen. Whatever emerges from the legislative sausage-making, the status quo is about to shift. And beauty to some is ugliness to others. The Republicans tout market-friendly reforms, such as expanding Health Savings Accounts and updating Individual Coverage Health Reimbursement Accounts. These tools use tax incentives to nudge Americans toward smarter health care spending. These are good for middle class, mostly healthy consumers, but not for low-income Americans. There will likely be steep Medicaid cuts and trims to Affordable Care Act subsidies. That means millions at or near the poverty line could lose coverage, driving up medical debt and forcing many into bare bones plans with high out-of-pocket costs and limited provider networks. The think tank Third Way estimates that proposed Medicaid cuts alone could push 2.8 million more Americans into medical debt, adding $26 billion to the nation's tab — a 10 percent jump. Is there a way to bridge this divide? Yes — if Congress is willing to think creatively. Supplemental 'gap' insurance plans, like those from Aflac, FlexBenefits or Colonial Penn, are designed to cover what primary insurance doesn't. Yet these plans are almost always paid for with after-tax dollars, and individuals receive no tax credits for buying. Why not change that? Let's make these plans tax-deductible for those who pay for their own health insurance. This isn't a radical idea — it's how health insurance deductions evolved for the self-employed over decades, growing from a 25 percent deduction in the 1980s to 100 percent by 2003. Back then, a typical plan cost $150–$300 a month with a $1,000 deductible. Today, premiums can run $500–$1,500 a month, with deductibles of $5,000 or more, plus co-pays and out-of-network charges. For $50–$100 a month, consumers can buy a comprehensive gap plan that covers up to $5,000 for accidents or illness, and even more for serious conditions like cancer or heart attack. If these plans were tax-deductible or — for lower-income Americans — came with a refundable tax credit enrollment would soar. Are all gap plans equal? No. Should there be minimum standards? Perhaps. But we need to start somewhere. What would it cost? If 10 million low-income Americans received a $500 tax credit for gap insurance, the price tag would be about $5 billion. Not everyone would sign up immediately, but those who do would see fewer medical bills leading to bankruptcy or collections and would avoid the 'private recession' of high-interest credit card debt. Freeing families from medical debt boosts consumer spending, increases sales tax revenue, and helps people get better jobs — raising state and federal tax receipts in the process. If 20 million Americans got a tax deduction — at a 25 percent tax rate — for a $1,000-a-year gap plan, the cost would also be $5 billion, phased in over time. This would further reduce medical debt, improve preventive care, and ease mental health burdens — key drivers of health care costs. There's a cost, but also a payoff: less cost-shifting by providers, more consumer spending, and a healthier, more productive workforce. When the self-employed could finally deduct health insurance in the 1990s, more farmers, tradespeople and blue-collar workers bought coverage. Tax incentives work. Make gap plans tax-advantaged, and millions more will buy them. It gives consumers new tools to manage out-of-pocket costs and encourages smarter health care choices. Reducing medical debt through tax incentives should be a bipartisan cause. It's smart politics for both parties. All it takes is a few leaders willing to think differently about rewarding responsible consumer behavior — no matter what income. Under current law, businesses can deduct disability insurance and, in some cases, life insurance as overhead. But accident and illness coverage doesn't get the same break. Accident insurance isn't deductible under an Health Savings Accounts or Individual Coverage Health Reimbursement Accounts, though it is under a Section 125 plan. Isn't it time to fix that? Jeff Smedsrud is a longtime advocate for market-centric health insurance reforms who started seven companies in the health insurance space, focusing on niche markets.
Yahoo
23-06-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
New York City Democrats face a clear choice: Socialist, or Cuomo?
A Zohran Mamdani victory in New York City's Democratic mayoral primary would give progressives much-needed energy as they try to keep the party's center of gravity from shifting to the right. And the nervous Democratic establishment is acting accordingly to make sure he doesn't survive Tuesday's ranked-choice vote. Mamdani, a progressive state assemblyman, is running as a 180-degree turn from scandal-laden incumbent Mayor Eric Adams, who declared himself 'the future' of his party just four years ago. The 33-year-old Muslim has promised New Yorkers free buses, rent freezes, and disinvestment from Israel — and he could become one of the most prominent Democratic figures in the US, should he win the nomination to take on Adams, a centrist who's now running on the independent line. He'll have to beat back a broad alliance of opponents, many of whom dislike his criticism of Israel's war in Gaza and some of whom are openly supporting his primary rival, former Gov. Andrew Cuomo. The Democratic Majority For Israel rebuked Mamdani for his 'long-standing enmity towards Israel' and urged New York Democrats to reject him; the center-left group Third Way called his potential victory 'a devastating blow in the fight to defeat Trumpism.' Whitney Tilson, a mayoral candidate and former hedge fund manager who helped start Teach for America, has campaigned extensively against Mamdani. He echoed the pointed criticism he has faced for his amid the war in Gaza. 'I think he's a particular threat to both the Jewish community and the business community, with his radical socialism and hatred of Israel,' Tilson told Semafor, after stopping at a Ukrainian festival in Brooklyn where he talked about sending aid to defend the country from Russia. A defeat for Cuomo, whose lead stretched as high as 32 points when he entered the race, would be a remarkable upset — and prevent a comeback that many city leaders had made peace with. 'Eight months after being at 1%, we now stand just a few points away from toppling a political dynasty,' Mamdani told supporters on Sunday, at one of his final pre-vote rallies. New York Democrats are filling out ranked-choice ballots that allow them to pick up to five candidates, out of 11, using the same electoral system that narrowly gave Adams his 2021 victory. That's loomed as a challenge for Cuomo. Universally known by voters, he's consistently led the field; more than a third of New York Democrats are calling him their first-choice candidate, dominating the expected vote in the Bronx and Staten Island. But Cuomo entered the race with the highest negative ratings of any Democratic candidate and his own scandal-marked record. His many enemies, including progressives who fumbled their 2021 campaign to stop Adams, had more time to plan. In February, before Adams quit the race and Cuomo entered, a group of progressives launched 'Don't Rank Eric Adams for Mayor,' or DREAM, to advertise their strategy. When Cuomo tagged in, the acronym was changed to Don't Rank Evil Andrew. Mamdani's campaign surged ahead of every Cuomo alternative, despite some liberal worries about whether he could build a winning coalition. By early June, they had accepted reality: The Working Families Party put Mamdani at the top of its slate, as did Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., as Comptroller Brad Lander cross-endorsed Mamdani and Bernie Sanders announced his own support for him. In the final days of the race, as public polling showed Mamdani with a real chance to win, Cuomo picked up endorsements from centrist Democrats who describe him as the most experienced candidate. But early voting was higher in the neighborhoods where Mamdani has run the strongest — and where his campaign has concentrated its volunteers. On Monday, centrist Democrats fretted that the 33-year old could beat Cuomo, with a combination of lower Election Day turnout during a heat wave, solidarity from most of the anti-Cuomo candidates, and an unapologetically progressive campaign that made no mistakes. The New York Times, which declined to endorse in the race, instead published an editorial (that would immediately be quoted in a Cuomo ad) labeling Mamdani's agenda 'uniquely unsuited to the city's challenges.' A Mamdani victory, argued Matt Bennett, senior vice president for public affairs at Third Way, would put Democratic Socialists for America under the spotlight at a weak moment for the anti-Trump opposition. 'The stuff in the DSA platform is insane,' Bennett said. Third Way, which usually ignores mayoral contests, weighed in against Mamdani because they saw his membership in DSA as an enormous optics problem. 'Open the prisons and shut 'em down? Open the borders and make everything free? It's like a 9th-grader's idea of what a Marxist fantasy would be. It's packed with ideas that could be weaponized by Republicans,' Bennett one sure thing about this race is that it won't be over on Tuesday night. It will take some time to count ballots until one candidate has crossed the 50% win threshold; polling suggested that this could take five rounds of ranked-choiced math, or more. If Cuomo wins, there will be pressure on the Working Families Party to give Mamdani its ballot line for November, and to elect him in a contest with Cuomo as the Democratic nominee, Adams as an independent, businessman Jim Walden as another independent, and Guardian Angels founder Curtis Sliwa as a Republican. The late angst about a Mamdani win suggests another possible five-way contest: Mamdani as the Democratic nominee, and Cuomo as the nominee of his Fight and Deliver Party. (Cuomo's father Mario, who lost the 1977 Democratic mayoral primary, lost again in November as the defunct Liberal Party's nominee.) The bigger question is what it means for the Democratic Party's brand. Outside New York, Cuomo's comeback looked inevitable until the last couple of weeks. Before that, Mamdani's rise as his chief rival gave pro-Cuomo Democrats hope. Surely, they thought, a less left-wing candidate like Lander or City Council Speaker Adrienne Adams would be more formidable. They viewed the choice the way Jeb Bush's campaign viewed Donald Trump's rise 10 years ago — a distraction that would get the anti-establishment bug out of voters' systems, preventing a challenger who might be able to win. Surely, a socialist who refused to acknowledge Israel's right to exist as a 'Jewish state' or condemn the slogan 'globalize the Intifada' would punch himself out before anybody voted. He didn't punch himself out. National Democrats have barely started to consider what it would mean if Mamdani can secure the nomination in New York — for their party's internal politics, for how their voters want to fight Trump, or for how ready they might be to throw off old Politico, Jonathan Martin a Mamdani campaign that made 'affordability' its 'heartbeat' and became more robust than Cuomo et al expected. In New York, Errol Louis stock of the mistakes the city's Democratic elites made on the way to the primary. Earlier this month, I looked at the lessons Mamdani was from Bernie Sanders, in campaigning and in governing.
CNBC
23-06-2025
- Business
- CNBC
Health-care cuts in GOP's budget bill may add up to $22,800 in medical debt for some families: Report
Proposed federal spending cuts to health care in Republicans' "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" may increase some families' medical debts by as much as $22,800, according to a new report from Third Way, a Washington, D.C.-based think tank. The Republican budget bill proposes $1.1 trillion in cuts to health care that target both Medicaid and Affordable Care Act coverage. An estimated 16 million people may lose health coverage based on those proposals, the Congressional Budget Office has estimated — 7.8 million who would lose Medicaid and 8.2 million who would lose Affordable Care Act coverage. Overall, medical debt would increase by $50 billion as a result of the budget bill changes — a 15% rise over today's $340 billion in unpaid debts, according to Third Way. Health coverage losses would increase the number of people in families with medical debt by 5.4 million, according to Third Way's report. More than 100 million people currently have medical debt in the U.S., according to KFF. More from Personal Finance:'SALT' deduction in limbo as Senate Republicans unveil tax planHow Senate GOP 'no tax on tips' proposal differs from House planSenate tax bill includes $1,000 baby bonus in 'Trump accounts' An estimated 2.2 million households would have medical debt because of Medicaid coverage losses, while 3.2 million more people would rack up balances due to Affordable Care Act reforms that may prompt coverage losses or higher premiums, according to Third Way. Without coverage, families may see their medical debts increase by as much as $22,800, according to Third Way's report. About 87% of households that previously had no medical debt would accumulate an average of $22,800 in balances. Meanwhile, 13% of households may accumulate an additional average of $8,790 in medical debt on top of $13,490 in existing balances. "That's going to put people's dreams back, if they're hoping to go to college or hoping to have a solid retirement or hoping to buy another house," said David Kendall, senior fellow for health and fiscal policy at Third Way. "Medical debt stands in the way of the American dream, and we shouldn't make it worse." The White House said proposed federal spending cuts are aimed at eliminating "waste, fraud and abuse" in government programs including Medicaid. The Trump administration has said the "big beautiful" bill is a potential "economic windfall for working and middle-class Americans" through tax cuts, higher wages and higher take-home pay. In a Monday letter that cites the Third Way report, Sen. Jeff Merkley, D-Ore., ranking member of the Senate Budget Committee, and Democratic Sens. Cory Booker of New Jersey, Chuck Schumer of New York and Ron Wyden of Oregon, urged Republican leaders to reconsider the proposed health-care cuts. Addressing medical debt is a "national priority" with "bipartisan support," the senators wrote in a letter to Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., and House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La. Currently, 16 states have moved to either cancel medical debt or eliminate medical debts from credit reports, they wrote. "Medical debt is a complex problem, but having health insurance coverage makes a measurable difference," the senators wrote. They pointed to a 2013 study in The New England Journal of Medicine that found Medicaid coverage reduces medical debt rates by 13.28 percentage points. The study, published ahead of state Medicaid expansion under the ACA, looked at the effects of Oregon's 2008 Medicaid expansion. Americans with unpaid medical balances may face "dire" consequences, which may include delaying or going without needed care, cutting back on food or other necessities or taking on additional debt, the lawmakers wrote. In addition to personal setbacks, medical debt also affects consumer spending, which may prevent economic growth, they said. "If the Republican reconciliation bill passes these drastic health care cuts into law, working class families across America risk going further into medical debt," the senators wrote. "It is not too late to stop these cuts," they wrote.
Politico
21-06-2025
- Politics
- Politico
Centrist Dems sweat DSA NYC candidate
Presented by With help from Eli Okun, Bethany Irvine and Ali Bianco Good Saturday morning. This is Adam Wren. Get in touch. TODAY: President Donald Trump flies back to Washington today from Bedminster, New Jersey, to attend another national security meeting in the Oval Office at 6 p.m. THE CONVERSATION: Ever since Trump's victory in November, Democrats have been asking some variation of one question: Why did we lose the election? Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) has a few answers. 'Well, one, we became the party of war,' Khanna tells Playbook's Dasha Burns on this week's episode of 'The Conversation,' which comes out tomorrow morning. 'I think the Gaza situation really hurt us with a lot of young people, certainly in Wisconsin and Michigan. We would have won those two states, but for that. 'Second, inflation,' Khanna continued. 'We were too late in recognizing how much people were hurting. We kept calling it 'transitory.' We didn't have the urgency of a plan of what we were gonna do to tackle inflation. Let me give you one example. Donald Trump, erroneously, is calling in the National Guard to Los Angeles to deal with the situation there. I oppose that. Did we ever call in the National Guard to say, you know what, we've got a supply chain shortage, we don't have enough people manning the ports, we're going to have an all-out mobilization and call the National Guard to deal with these supply chains shortages? …I think people just thought we weren't on top of it.' More from Jacob Wendler DRIVING THE DAY EMPIRE STATE OF MIND: Centrist Democrats are sounding the alarm that a surging democratic socialist mayoral candidate in New York City's Tuesday primary could further set back the party's already beleaguered national brand. Third Way, the center-left Democratic think tank, wrote in a memo Friday that they are 'deeply alarmed' by Zohran Mamdani, whom they argue holds positions 'that border on anti-semitism' and scan as if they were 'cooked up in the offices of a Trump-aligned ad maker.' At a time when the Democrats are searching for a way out of the wilderness, moderates in the party say that given New York City mayors' outsized role in national politics — three of the last four have run for president — Republicans could exploit Mamdani's positions for their gain up and down the ballot. 'We've seen the MAGA right's ability and eagerness to weaponize over steps by the left,' Third Way's executive vice president Matt Bennett tells Playbook. 'If you just think about the way the Trump campaign attacked [former Vice President Kamala] Harris, the way the MAGA right has attacked Democrats generally, it is by attaching them to ideas that are outside of the mainstream. Flipping [Minnesota Gov.] Tim Walz on its head: It turns out, they made us into the weird ones, and nothing's weirder than the stuff that's in the DSA platform, and we just cannot hand that to the Republicans.' The Third Way memo highlights defunding the police, closing jails, banning private healthcare and operating city-owned grocery stores as positions American voters would find beyond the pale. In a statement, campaign spokesperson Lekha Sunder said 'Mamdani's campaign is a model for the direction our party must head in: towards the people.' And Mamdani has repeatedly pushed back against the antisemitism label. 'I've said at every opportunity that there is no room for antisemitism in this city, in this country,' he said at a press conference earlier this week, adding the reason he does not have a more visceral reaction to being labeled that is because it has 'been colored by the fact that when I speak, especially when I speak with emotion, I am then characterized by those same rivals as being a monster.' At a post-election retreat for Democrats in Virginia earlier this year, Third Way conceded in a memo that the 'party needed to own failures of Democratic governance in large cities and commit to improving local government.' STATE OF THE RACE: Playbook checked in with one of our top POLITICO New York reporters, Emily Ngo, to get a pulse on Tuesday's primary, which she tells us is 'chaotic' and 'expensive.' 'The super PAC backing Andrew Cuomo has $24 million in contributions as of Friday, a third of that from former Mayor Michael Bloomberg, who does not want a democratic socialist as one of his successors,' Ngo writes in. 'The race is effectively between Cuomo, a former governor who resigned in disgrace in 2021, and Mamdani, a DSA state lawmaker who's 33 and was an unknown until he surged toward the front of the pack. But Brad Lander, the progressive city comptroller, is in the mix after grabbing national headlines upon being detained by federal officers while protecting a defendant outside immigration court.' Ngo also notes that the race has become a 'proxy battle' between progressives and moderates nationally: Mamdani has not just the endorsements of Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), but Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), while Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-S.C.) backed Cuomo Friday. 'It's also a proxy battle in the sense that Israel and antisemitism have come up again and again, which Cuomo wants to keep the spotlight on the topic,' Ngo tells us. 'In these final days, Cuomo has focused on Mamdani's response to a podcast question on whether the phrase 'globalize the intifada' makes him uncomfortable. Mamdani did not reject or condemn the phrase. He has said it means different things to different people and reiterated that he would protect Jewish New Yorkers and combat antisemitism.' 5 MINUTES WITH Welcome to '5 Minutes With,' a new Playbook weekend segment featuring a quick chat with a newsmaker. Rep. Greg Casar, the 36-year-old Texas Democrat, is backstage as the nu-cumbia DJ El Dusty warms up a crowd for another stop on Bernie Sanders' 'Fighting Oligarchy' tour. On Friday evening, in McAllen, the Congressional Progressive Caucus chair is getting ready to introduce the Vermont senator in Hidalgo County, in South Texas, which Trump flipped last November. It's part of the outreach Casar has been doing in red spaces — including three stops in GOP congressional districts, two town halls in Texas, Fox News, and Truth Social. 'We have to go talk to all the folks that voted for Trump and were lied to—all these folks that are feeling betrayed by a president who put corrupt billionaires first,' Casar says. 'At these rallies, I'm asking the thousands of attendees to go do the exact same thing that Bernie and I are doing — go and talk to their friends and coworkers who voted for Trump, who now have been betrayed by the president and his party.' Casar isn't afraid to punch right, including at those in his own party who argue the abundance approach can help Democrats win again: 'I saw Josh Barro the other day at this corporate Walmart fest — or whatever it was — out there saying that abundance means going and crushing labor unions,' Casar says. 'That's absurd. I think it's just like the 1988 Republican platform trying to disguise itself in abundance.' In the crowd, Casar can see people dancing as they wait for Sanders to speak. Casar says Democrats must nominate a progressive in 2028 to find their way back. 'If we don't transform the brand of the Democratic Party into an economically populist one, and one that is about everyday people's economics first,' he says, 'it won't matter who our candidate is, we'll lose.' FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, who is speaking at the Florida Democratic Party dinner today in Hollywood, Florida, is expected to burnish his ability to win in red parts of the country ahead of a possible 2028 presidential campaign, according to excerpts first shared with Playbook: 'The actions of the Trump administration are providing a huge opportunity for Democrats to go out and regain the trust of the American people — to be the party of common sense, common ground and getting things done,' Beshear is expected to say. 'To do that, we have to talk to people and not at them. And we have to explain our 'why.' That's how I won counties in Eastern Kentucky that normally vote for Republicans by large margins. Including Breathitt County, which is the county JD Vance pretends to be from.' He continues: 'For me, my 'why' is my faith. As governor, I restored voting rights to almost 200,000 Kentuckians who had paid their debt to society and deserve to have their voices heard at the ballot box. I got medical marijuana passed because no one who is going through cancer or dealing with PTSD should have to suffer instead of having access to relief. I removed the statue of Jefferson Davis from our State Capitol, because a glaring symbol of bigotry and division does not belong in any Capitol in our country, and that includes here in Florida. The current federal administration wants to make diversity a dirty word. They want people to believe that equity means everyone isn't worthy of opportunities. They want to rewrite the hard truths of our history.' 9 THINGS THAT STUCK WITH US 1. IRAN-ISRAEL LATEST: As the conflict between Israel-Iran hits a full week mark, Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, fearful of being assassinated, now mostly communicates with his commanders through a trusted assistant and 'has picked an array of replacements down his chain of military command in case more of his valued lieutenants are killed,' NYT's Farnaz Fassihi scoops. Khamenei also named 'three senior clerics as candidates to succeed him should he be killed, as well — perhaps the most telling illustration of the precarious moment he and his three-decade rule are facing.' The Iran leader's extraordinary precautions come as Israeli officials announced today they had killed a veteran Iranian commander, Saeed Izadi, in what Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz called 'major achievement for Israeli intelligence and the Air Force,' per Reuters. Though Trump has given Tehran a two-week deadline to reach a deal that will claw back its nuclear program, the country reiterated it will not enter into negotiations while under threat. Meanwhile, Israeli officials insisted yesterday that they will keep up their bombing campaign against the country until they believe their nuclear capabilities are fully eliminated, POLITICO's Nahal Toosi and Eli Stokols report. Iran has threatened to retaliate if the U.S. decides to strike, and the Iran officials have also suggested Washington may be using talks as a 'cover' for attacks: 'So they had perhaps this plan in their mind, and they just needed negotiations perhaps to cover it up,' Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told NBC News. 'We don't know how we can trust them anymore. What they did was, in fact, a betrayal to diplomacy,' Araghchi said. And the distrust goes both ways: FBI Director Kash Patel is reportedly ramping up surveillance of Iran-backed operatives and sleeper cells in the United States, CBS News' Jennifer Jacobs scoops. And from the West Wing: Trump publicly dismissed Intelligence Director Tulsi Gabbard's assessment of Iran's nuclear capabilities for a second time this week, flatly telling reporters 'She's wrong' about the existing program, per Eli. 2. THE HEAT IS ON IN CALIFORNIA: In a visit with state and federal officials in Los Angeles yesterday, VP JD Vance used a planned news conference to go after California Gov. Gavin Newsom and L.A. Mayor Karen Bass, suggesting they had encouraged violence during the recent slew of anti-ICE protests across the city, per the LA Times: 'What happened here was a tragedy,' Vance said. 'You had people who were doing the simple job of enforcing the law, and you had rioters, egged on by the governor and the mayor, making it harder for them to do their job.' Bass clapped back at Vance's characterization yesterday in a separate news conference: 'Unfortunately, the vice president did not take time to learn about our city and understand that our city is a city of immigrants from every country and continent on the planet … How dare you say that city officials encourage violence … We kept the peace.' Vance also accused Sen. Alex Padilla (D-Calif.) of indulging in 'political theater' after the senator was handcuffed and removed from a DHS press conference last week, referring to the lawmaker he served in the Senate with by the wrong name: 'Well, I was hoping Jose Padilla would be here to ask a question, but unfortunately, I guess he decided not to show up because there wasn't the theater,' Vance said. 3. MAHMOUD KHALIL LATEST: Pro-Palestinian activist Mahmoud Khalil has been released from an ICE detention center in Louisiana, where he has spent more than three months after he was arrested outside his apartment on Columbia University's campus, per CNN. Exiting the center wearing a keffiyeh, Khalil pumped his fists in the air, grinning: ''Although justice prevailed but it's long, very long overdue, and this shouldn't have taken three months,' Khalil told reporters outside the detention center, adding he couldn't wait to reunite with his wife and newborn son.' Khalil's release came hours after U.S. District Judge Michael Farbiarz ordered yesterday he was not a flight risk or a danger to public safety, adding his detainment was 'highly unusual.' As a reminder: Khalil has not been charged with any crime, though the Trump administration wants to deport him via a 'rarely used provision of immigration law that allows the government to deport any non-citizen,' Erica Orden and Kyle Cheney report. 4. SCHOOL DAZE: Trump posted on Truth Social yesterday that Harvard is in active settlement talks with the White House, suggesting a possible resolution could be announced within the next week: 'If a Settlement is made on the basis that is currently being discussed, it will be 'mindbogglingly' HISTORIC, and very good for our Country,' Trump wrote. 'It was not clear whether Trump was referring to formal settlement talks in one of the University's two ongoing lawsuits against the federal government, or informal discussions around the Trump administration's demands on Harvard,' The Harvard Crimson's Dhruv Patel reports. The post comes after the Trump administration launched a 'multi-front war' against the Ivy League institution, where it's 'accused Harvard of perpetuating antisemitism; terminated $2 billion in grants; and tried to ban the school from granting admission to foreign students,' POLITICO's Cheyanne Daniels and Josh Gerstein report. The supposed detente also comes after a federal judge directed the administration yesterday to restore 'every visa holder and applicant to the position that individual would have been' before the ban was enacted per NBC News. U.S. District Judge Allison Burroughs 'issued the preliminary injunction after having granted a temporary restraining order against the federal government this month.' 5. NEW RULES: In an effort to curb an alleged 'surge of improper enrollments' and reduce insurance prices, HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announced proposed rule changes that would further limit eligibility for Obamacare coverage, POLITICO's David Lim reports. In a press release yesterday, Kennedy suggested the administration would save $12 billion by changing the eligibility rule, though critics say the changes will 'cause eligible people to miss out on a chance at subsidized health insurance and increase the uninsured rate.' More on the numbers: 'CMS estimates about 725,000 to 1.8 million people will lose coverage as a result of the final rule. In January, CMS said about 24 million people had signed up for Obamacare coverage for 2025.' The final rule also 'shortens the annual open enrollment period from Nov. 1 to Dec. 31. The previous enrollment period ran from Nov. 1 to Jan. 15.' 6. SUNSHINE STATE UPDATE: A Senate disclosure form shows that Florida state Judge Ed Artau was already meeting with Senate staff about securing a nomination to the federal bench when he sided with Trump in a case, raising serious doubts among legal groups about his objectivity, POLITICO's Hailey Fuchs scoops. The Florida district court nominee 'met with staff in the office of Florida Republican Sen. Rick Scott to angle for the nomination less than two weeks after Trump's election last fall,' Hailey writes. About two weeks after Artau published his opinion in favor of Trump's case against members of the Pulitzer Prize board, 'he interviewed with the White House Counsel's Office. In May, Trump announced his nomination to the federal judiciary.' 7. A LOOK AHEAD: 'Trump wants one thing from the NATO summit. Europe is going to give it to him,' by Eli Stokols: In a major win for the president, the '32-nation transatlantic military alliance will pledge to dramatically increase spending on defense to 5 percent of gross domestic product — 3.5 percent on hard military expenditures and 1.5 percent on more loosely defined defense-related efforts. … But Trump's victory won't prevent him from pressuring countries to do even more, faster, which could prove difficult for some in the alliance.' 8. THE MAN BEHIND THE CURTAIN: 'Stephen Miller's Fingerprints Are on Everything in Trump's Second Term,' by WSJ's Josh Dawsey and Rebecca Ballhaus: '[White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen] Miller's portfolio covers almost every issue Trump is interested in. In recent months, he talked to CEOs about a coming tariff announcement; joined a meeting between Meta Chief Executive Mark Zuckerberg and Trump about the company's antitrust case; and met with other tech companies on artificial intelligence. … Several White House staffers said Miller always takes the most 'extreme' view of any issue, and his positions have cost the administration in court.' 9. IMMIGRATION FILES: 'Abandoned by Trump, a farmer and a migrant search for a better future,' by WaPo's John Woodrow Cox, Sarah Blaskey and Matt McClain: 'Swept up in the freeze was JJ [Ficken] and the $50 million grant program he'd signed up for along with 140 other farmers across the country. All of them had agreed to hire and, in many cases, house domestic workers or lawful immigrants willing to take jobs that Americans would not, but with the reimbursements in doubt, farmers worried they'd miss payrolls, default on loans or face bankruptcy. Many feared the checks would never come.' CLICKER — 'The nation's cartoonists on the week in politics,' edited by Matt Wuerker — 15 funnies GREAT WEEKEND READS: — 'MAGA and the single girl' by WaPo's Kara Voght: 'What do the young women of the modern right want? It's complicated.' — 'The Cost of Passage: Violence and Death on the Atlantic Route to Spain,' by POLITICO Mag's By Tim Röhn, Marie-Louise Ndiaye and Antonio Sempere: 'Every year, tens of thousands of migrants set off to Europe from Africa in fragile wooden boats. But there's growing evidence that these perilous journeys are marred by horrific crimes.' — 'What Happened to the Women of #MeToo?' by The New Yorker's Alexis Okeowo: 'Tina Johnson accused Roy Moore of sexual assault. Then the world moved on, and left her behind.' — 'The Army Was the Only Life She Knew. Trump's Trans Ban Cast Her Out,' by NYT's Greg Jaffe: 'Maj. Erica Vandal's superiors called her 'a superb officer.' The president said transgender soldiers like her lack the 'honesty,' 'humility' and 'integrity' to serve.' — 'Threat in Your Medicine Cabinet: The FDA's Gamble on America's Drugs,' by ProPublica's Debbie Cenziper, Megan Rose, Brandon Roberts and Irena Hwang: 'The Food and Drug Administration's 2022 inspection of the Sun Pharma factory in India warned of contaminations and deficiencies. But the plant received permission from the FDA to continue shipping more than a dozen generic medications to Americans.' — 'The Myth of the Gen Z Red Wave,' by The Atlantic's Jean Twenge: 'The best available evidence suggests that the youth-vote shift in 2024 was more a one-off event than an ideological realignment.' TALK OF THE TOWN FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Second Lady Usha Vance recorded her first longform, on-camera interview with Meghan McCain on 2Way and it is set to publish Wednesday. HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Rep. Pat Harrigan (R-N.C.) … Chad Wolf … Maury Riggan … NYT's Elizabeth Williamson and Elizabeth Dias … Mary Beth Donahue … WaPo's Laura Meckler … Cody Uhing … Shara Mohtadi … Madeleine Morgenstern … David Makovsky … Bully Pulpit's Caroline Weisser … Sanam Rastegar … POLITICO's Delece Smith-Barrow, Wiktoria Brodzinska and Rachel James … Axios' Mike Allen … Gary Maloney … Jake Maccoby … Forbes' Emma Whitford … Max Clarke … Greg Hitt … Sam Nunberg … former Reps. Dana Rohrabacher (R-Calif.), Marjorie Margolies (D-Pa.), Michelle Steel (R-Calif.) and Dan Burton (R-Ind.) … Kate Kochman … Jill Farquharson … former Oregon Gov. Kate Brown … Brian Kamoie… Tony Carrk … Iyanla Kollock of Rep. Shomari Figures' (D-Ala.) office THE SHOWS (Full Sunday show listings here): POLITICO 'The Conversation with Dasha Burns': Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.). FOX 'Fox News Sunday': DHS Secretary Kristi Noem … Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) … Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.). Supreme Court panel: Tom Dupree and Jonathan Turley. Panel: Matt Gorman, Stef Kight, Roger Zakheim and Juan Williams. CBS 'Face the Nation': Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) … Reps. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) and Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) … Israeli Ambassador Yechiel Leiter … retired Gen. Frank McKenzie. NBC 'Meet the Press': Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) … Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.). Panel: Lanhee Chen, Ashley Etienne, Jonathan Martin and Andrea Mitchell. ABC 'This Week': Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) … Steve Ganyard … Karim Sadjadpour … Chris Christie. 'Powerhouse' Roundtable: Donna Brazile, Reince Priebus and Sarah Isgur. CNN 'State of Union': Sen. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.). Panel: Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson, Kristen Soltis Anderson, Xochitl Hinojosa and Scott Jennings. NewsNation 'The Hill Sunday': Sen. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.) … Rep. Sean Casten (D-Ill.). Panel: Ian Swanson, James Hohmann, Molly Ball and Jasmine Wright. Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@ or text us on Signal here. Playbook couldn't happen without our editor Zack Stanton, deputy editor Garrett Ross and Playbook Podcast producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.
Yahoo
16-06-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Immigration protests put Democrats in tricky territory
Nationwide protests against President Trump's crackdown on immigration are putting Democrats in tricky political territory ahead of the high-stakes midterms. After demonstrations against Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) raids roiled Los Angeles and prompted Trump to call in the National Guard despite California's objections, protests cropped up this week in cities big and small, thrusting to the fore what has been a winning issue for Republicans in recent elections. While many in the party, including California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D), are using the moment to hammer Trump on executive overreach, some also see the controversy as a key opening for Democrats to define themselves on immigration, where the GOP has held the advantage. 'Democrats have been so untrusted to handle this issue, in such a deep hole, that unless they reestablish themselves as trusted folks to handle it, they're not going to be able to take advantage of any chaos or softening [poll numbers] that's happening with Trump,' said Lanae Erickson, senior vice president for social policy and politics at the centrist Democratic think tank Third Way. Trump, who won the White House last fall with promises to 'seal' the border and kick-start day–one deportations, has been implementing an aggressive crackdown on illegal immigration in his second term. ICE arrests have topped 100,000 under Trump so far, the White House announced last week, and border czar Tom Homan said workplace immigration enforcement is set to 'massively expand' amid the pushback. Protests broke out June 6 after ICE raids in Los Angeles, prompting Trump to call in National Guard troops and Marines, as well as spurring on similar demonstrations in other cities. More were planned for this weekend, though not all are specific to immigration, and set to coincide with Trump's massive military parade in Washington. The demonstrators have largely been peaceful, but Republicans have seized on scenes of chaos — including a viral clip of a figure brandishing a Mexican flag atop a vehicle amid flames — to support long-standing claims that Democrats are weak on immigration and crime. 'My party loses the moral high ground when we refuse to condemn setting cars on fire, destroying buildings and assaulting law enforcement,' Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.) pointed out on the social platform X this week. As a result, blue state leaders in California and elsewhere have been walking a balance beam between supporting the right to protest and condemning any violence, while also navigating debate on issues that have long been weak points for the party. 'This whole situation is doing something Trump has been very good at in his elections, which is to smash together immigration and crime and make it seem like Democrats don't care about addressing either of those problems,' Erickson said. 'If it seems like Democrats are letting [lawbreakers] do that with impunity and only criticizing Trump, I think that that'll really undermine our trust with American voters.' Meanwhile, some recent polls have suggested a softening of approval for Trump's immigration handling as the ICE raids make headlines. A Quinnipiac poll released this week had Trump 11 points underwater on the issue, compared with 5 points underwater in April. AP-NORC polling last week had him 7 points underwater, compared with 2 points last month. If Democrats can avoid playing into the idea of the party being soft on crime and border security, and use this moment to unify their messaging on immigration policy, they could make critical inroads ahead of the next election, argued Democratic strategist Maria Cardona. 'Part of the problem for Democrats in the last election was that we didn't talk about [immigration] enough, and we didn't define ourselves. … We gave Republicans a huge opening to weaponize it against us, and they took it,' Cardona said. Now, the growing protests present a 'terrific opportunity' for Democrats to lean in, Cardona said, pointing to the protests across the country as 'proof that Trump's approach on this is failing.' New polling on key 2026 battleground districts from the progressive group Way to Win and the firm Impact Research, conducted just before the protests, found that Trump was 'the strongest and most trusted voice' on immigration issues, with congressional Democrats a whopping 58 points in the negative, compared with their Republican counterparts' minus 11 points. But there were 'significant openings' for Democrats, researchers said. Most voters said Trump and Republicans have 'gone too far' in their handling of immigration, and there was a 6-point gap between voters' support for GOP immigration policies and the way that those policies have been carried out and enforced. 'Immigration was not a winning issue for Democrats last cycle. That's true … and certainly, remaining silent on the issue didn't help. So when Trump made his whole campaign a campaign that once again scapegoated immigrants … and there's no pushback, or if the pushback stays on his turf, making it a story about linking immigration to criminality only, then we lose,' Tory Gavito, president of Way to Win, told The Hill. 'Democrats need to remember that public opinion can shift, and Democrats have a role in shifting public opinion by making a clear argument about what they believe in and why,' Gavito said. When respondents in the survey were presented with messaging that suggested Trump and Republicans' immigration enforcement signals a threat to citizens' rights, his approval on immigration dropped 10 points. 'The immigration policy battlefield is a challenging one for Democrats, it truly is. But if you walk away from the battle, you're letting the other side play alone, and that's how they win.' At the same time, experts say the protests also pose a prime chance for Democrats to knock Trump for executive overreach and an abuse of power, even if they can't win the argument on immigration. 'The risk attached to the current protests over Trump's immigration raids is that Democrats will again be painted as 'soft on crime,' which requires that the immigrants being rounded up are overwhelmingly guilty of some serious criminal offense. Clearly this is not the case, but the administration and its allies are putting out tons of disinformation,' said Wayne Cornelius, director emeritus of the Center for Comparative Immigration Studies at the University of California, San Diego and a former immigration adviser to former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg's and former President Biden's campaigns, in an email to The Hill. 'The potential opportunity for Democrats … is that the administration will overreach, causing widespread economic disruptions and backlash in the communities into which long-staying immigrants have become integrated.' Newsom has been among the leading voices messaging along those lines, casting Trump's moves in California as an existential fight for democracy that could quickly impact the rest of the country. 'This is about all of us. This is about you,' Newsom said this week. 'California may be first — but it clearly won't end there. Other states are next. Democracy is next.' The complex conversations about how Democrats should approach immigration and border security come after the topics were seen as defining factors in their 2024 losses, and as the party looks toward a high-stakes midterm cycle next year. 'Immigration is quite possibly the wedge issue of this season for Democrats. If they swing too far in one direction, they will be painted and seen as anti-order on behalf of non-Americans. … If they swing too far in the other direction, they will be seen as complicit in the destruction of our democracy,' said Democratic strategist Fred Hicks. 'We have to connect this to larger issues with the Trump administration,' Hicks said. 'This can't be about immigration alone, or Democrats run the risk of losing the projected advantage in 2026.' Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
