Latest news with #Trump1.0
Indian Express
4 days ago
- Politics
- Indian Express
Iran, US and the 400-kg enriched Uranium bargaining chip
Written by R Swaminathan In the aftermath of the US airstrikes on Iran's nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan, the international community found unexpected relief in Tehran's restrained military response. Dubbed 'Besharat al-Fath', Iran's retaliatory strike targeted the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, CENTCOM's largest hub in the region. It was a carefully calibrated operation: No casualties, no infrastructure damage, and prior notification given to both Qatar and the United States. It was more restrained even compared to Iran's military response during Trump 1.0 following the assassination of Qassem Soleimani, the commander of the elite Quds Force, in 2020. Tehran opted for symbolism over escalation, signaling a strategic priority — regime survival. The most striking feature of Iran's response was not what it did, but what it deliberately avoided — it did not withdraw from the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), and refrained from activating its regional proxies or disrupting the Strait of Hormuz. Further, the Supreme National Security Council has not yet endorsed the decision of Iran's Parliament to suspend its cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Iran's restraint, facilitated in part by Qatar's backchannel diplomacy, helped sustain a fragile ceasefire following President Donald Trump's forceful intervention with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Though tentative, the truce has held so far. As the guns fell silent, attention quickly pivoted to the damage inflicted on Iran's nuclear infrastructure and whether the mission was accomplished. A leaked Pentagon Initial Damage Assessment Report suggested the strikes might have set Iran's nuclear programme back by only a few months, a claim that infuriated President Trump and prompted swift rebuttals from the CIA and Pentagon. They insisted the facilities were 'obliterated' and maintained that Iran had not relocated its 400-kg stockpile of uranium enriched to 60 per cent. Israel's intelligence claimed that Iran's capabilities were degraded significantly, including a 50 per cent reduction in its missile launcher capacity and several years of delay to its nuclear programme. Yet, at the heart of the post-conflict ambiguity lies a far more critical and unresolved question: The whereabouts of the 400 kg of highly-enriched uranium (HEU) last verified by the IAEA before the Israeli strikes on June 13. The Fordow facility, Iran's primary centre for higher enrichment of uranium, was struck by GBU 57, the Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) or the Bunker Buster bombs. Craters at the site confirmed deep penetration, but the IAEA has not been able to physically verify the damage so far. On June 13, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi informed IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi that Iran would 'adopt special measures to protect our nuclear equipment and materials'. Grossi responded the same day, reminding Tehran of its obligations under the Safeguards Agreement to declare any transfer of nuclear material. However, no formal declaration followed. Subsequent satellite imagery from June 19-20 revealed unusual movement of trucks and bulldozers around Fordow, suggesting that Iran may have relocated sensitive materials, including the HEU stockpile, before the US bombing on June 22. Although Tehran has issued no official confirmation of such a move, unnamed senior Iranian officials told Reuters on June 23 that a preemptive transfer of the uranium had taken place. This claim, however, remains unverifiable. The IAEA's post-strike assessments noted localised radioactive and chemical releases inside the damaged facilities, yet no off-site radiation levels were detected. This led observers to speculate that either Fordow's containment systems withstood the MOP bombardment, or the enriched uranium had indeed been moved. European intelligence reports suggest that Iran's HEU reserves were distributed across multiple, undisclosed facilities rather than being stored solely at Fordow. If true, this dispersal strategy not only safeguarded Iran's nuclear assets but also complicates verification efforts. It may take months for the IAEA to inspect the Fordow site, especially if structural integrity has been compromised. This uncertainty grants Tehran diplomatic leverage. By neither confirming nor denying the relocation of the uranium, Iran preserves ambiguity, which can be tactically used in future negotiations. This is particularly important as Trump, speaking at the NATO Summit in The Hague, signaled potential talks with Iran next week, albeit in his characteristic manner: 'We may sign an agreement. I don't know. To me, I don't think it's that necessary.' Meanwhile, Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei delivered a fiery speech on June 26, reinforcing Iran's posture of defiance. He declared that Iran had delivered a 'hard slap' to the US by striking Al Udeid and warned of further retaliation if provoked. 'The nuclear facilities may be damaged, but our will and our capabilities are intact,' he said, dismissing any possibility of surrender. While military confrontation has paused for now, the geopolitical stakes remain high. Iran still retains a significant portion of its long-range missile arsenal, and airstrikes alone cannot permanently dismantle a nuclear programme. But Iran is under pressure to have a deal, as otherwise all the UN sanctions that were imposed on it from 2006 to 2010 and suspended under the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action endorsed by the UNSC in July 2015) will 'snap back'. As the ceasefire endures and oil prices stabilise, the immediate crisis appears contained. Yet, without a return to JCPOA-style negotiations, the world remains trapped in a cycle of brinkmanship. At the center of this unfolding drama is the still-unresolved mystery of the 400 kg of HEU. Whether hidden, destroyed, or dispersed, its status will shape the contours of diplomacy in the coming weeks. Until inspectors return to Fordow and other sites, this enriched uranium serves both as a potential flashpoint and a bargaining chip. The writer is a former Governor of India to the IAEA, Vienna, former Ambassador to Egypt, Austria, and Montenegro, and former Permanent Representative to the Arab League
Axios
13-06-2025
- Business
- Axios
Shale boom helped shape Trump foreign and trade policy, essay says
Don't sleep on the shale boom as a force behind Trump 2.0's "disruptive" foreign and trade policies, a new essay argues. Why it matters: The provocative Foreign Affairs piece calls the U.S. oil and gas export surge an "overlooked" driver of America's posture on the global stage that's "mostly unrelated to [President] Trump's particular preferences." These huge shipments abroad are a relatively recent thing that followed many years of growing imports. The big picture:"Since then, the country has begun to behave less like a liberal hegemon and more like a classic petrostate," write UCLA political scientist Michael Ross and Georgetown geopolitics and justice professor Erik Voeten. When oil imports were much larger and rising, the U.S. "aligned with other energy-consuming countries in securing maritime trade routes, stabilizing markets, and supporting international institutions." "Now, like other top oil exporters, such as Russia and Saudi Arabia, the United States has lost its long-term interest in international cooperation and has become more willing to use the leverage gained by its production capacity to secure short-term concessions," they write. The intrigue: Ross and Voeten are not making some kind of monocausal argument about what enabled MAGA's rise. They characterize Trump's trade wars, withdrawal from treaties and his "contempt" for traditional allies as rooted in his worldview and populist leanings. But they do fear that the relatively recent revival of America's petro-might is enabling the U.S. to seek near-term gains over long-term alliances. State of play: It's not just a Trump thing, the essay states. It traces declining U.S. support for free trade to the shale boom that really took flight in the mid-2010s. They note former President Obama refused to appoint appellate judges to the WTO, "effectively crippling the body's dispute-resolution mechanism." They also point out former President Biden kept many Trump 1.0 tariffs in place and "adopted new protectionist industrial policies and export sanctions." "The erosion of U.S. support for multilateral trade cooperation coincided with the shale boom," it states. Zoom out: Whether they're on target or out to lunch, Ross and Voeten aren't the first analysts to start considering how the U.S. petro-boom is fundamentally changing the country's place on the world stage. Scholars with Columbia's energy think tank recently published a piece announcing the arrival of a "new form of energy bipolarity." The dividing line is between petro-states (notably the U.S., Russia and Saudi Arabia) and electro-states led by China and the EU that are racing ahead on renewables, EVs and grid tech.
CNBC
13-06-2025
- Business
- CNBC
JPMorgan upgrades Newell Brands to overweight thanks to tariff-hedging abilities
Newell Brands ' tariff-hedging advantages gives it a leg up over its peers, according to JPMorgan. The bank upgraded shares of the consumer and commercial goods manufacturer to an overweight rating from neutral. Simultaneously, analyst Andrea Teixeira raised her price target to $7 per share from $6. Newell, which owns brands such as Rubbermaid, Paper Mate, Sharpie, Elmer's, Yankee Candle and Crock-Pot, has stumbled 45% so far this year. However, Teixeira's revised forecast implies an upside of 29% from the stock's Thursday closing price of $5.43. NWL YTD mountain NWL YTD chart One reason for the upgrade comes from a recent meeting with several members of Newell's senior management. "We came away more confident that NWL is finally on the right track to deliver on the turnaround with a more focused portfolio, efficient systems and logistics that should set NWL as a winner in its categories, in particular as the company is a tariff beneficiary with most of its manufacturing in the U.S. vs. abroad for most competitors, including private label," Teixeira wrote. As additional catalysts, the analyst pointed to Newell's increased speed of recent innovation, alongside its distribution gains in key retailers. She added that Newell is also in a good position to hedge tariff risks, and could even gain more market share since most of its peer companies source from abroad. "We think NWL is tariff advantaged with its 15 U.S. plants and two U.S. MCA-compliant plants in Mexico, and is likely to benefit as the company secures more retailer wins in its 19 tariff-advantaged categories, which in turn would aid the top line and in turn gain market share," she wrote. "As it relates to tariff risk for NWL, majority of 15% China sourcing is due to baby gear but this is an industry-wide issue and was exempt under Section 301 during Trump 1.0." Additional tailwinds for Newell Brands include financial deleverage and continuing margin improvement.
Business Times
02-06-2025
- Business
- Business Times
Asean increasingly pulled in opposite directions
ALL eyes are on US trade talks, but for the Asean countries, visibility on progress remains poor. This partly reflects the US administration's priority to strike deals with other larger economies including India, Japan, and China. For Asean, only preliminary talks have taken place and formal discussions are yet to happen. In the case of Thailand, it is yet to get a schedule for its first-round talks with high-level officials. Big ask from the US There are other fundamental factors at play. Where some preliminary talks have already occurred, it is unclear what the US wants exactly and officials have been trying to figure out the specific demands. Once they have a sense, a framework to pursue formal negotiations will be put together along with possible proposals. The US has made it unequivocally clear to its trading partners to clamp down on transshipments from China aiming to circumvent US tariffs. This demand is most relevant for Asean countries, but compliance will also likely be challenging. A few of them, especially Vietnam and Thailand, have benefited from these trade diversion effects since the first round of the US-China trade war and these will be difficult to reverse in the short run. Even in Singapore, where we did not see much re-routing in Trump 1.0, a surge in re-exports boosted its trade surplus to a record high in April. The concern is that this demand seems to be a hard constraint from the US. In Thailand's case, ahead of talks with the US, Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra reportedly ordered a tightening of the issuance of certificates of origin. But by her own admission, it will take time to resolve, likely longer than the 90-day reprieve period for tariffs which expires in early July. A NEWSLETTER FOR YOU Friday, 8.30 am Asean Business Business insights centering on South-east Asia's fast-growing economies. Sign Up Sign Up The US administration is likely bent on using negotiations with other countries to keep the pressure on China by preventing a re-routing of exports to the US via these third countries. China's calculated charm offensive At the same time, China is making its move to strengthen ties with the region, indicated by no less than President Xi Jinping's visit to Vietnam, Malaysia and Cambodia in April. Greater cooperation is the big buzzword from official statements. Key proposals from China include building an economic community and deepening supply chains with the region via the creation of industrial parks, special economic zones and technological corridors. Under China's Belt and Road Initiative, it also proposes fast-tracking the construction of infrastructure projects, particularly railways and an 'Air Silk Road' to improve regional connectivity. While the timeline for implementation of these initiatives remains unclear, the consistent theme across Asean to enhance trade and investment relations with China suggests these have likely been shaped by the desire for a common response to rising US protectionism. Follow-up action from China has also been swift, sending an even clearer signal to Asean leaders that its larger northern neighbour is serious in its intent. Before the Asean Summit in Kuala Lumpur last week, negotiations had already been completed to implement version 3.0 of the Asean-China Free Trade Area, an initiative that President Xi was encouraging as recently as his visit. This upgrade covers new sectors such as the green and digital economy and puts greater emphasis on developing regional supply chains. The inaugural Asean-China-GCC Summit also took place last week, attended by Premier Li Qiang. Malaysia can claim the unique distinction of hosting President Xi and Premier Li back-to-back within a month. In contrast, progress among Asean countries on trade talks with the US have been slow. A pivot adds to the uncertainty In addition to the complex nature of these trade negotiations with the US and the difficulties that Asean countries face in removing non-tariff barriers and reducing transshipments, being caught in the crossfire between the US and China will likely present more challenges for the region. The difficulty in coming up with a deal with the US could encourage a pivot by these countries to trade more with China and try to substitute exports to the US. China's share in Asean's total trade is already nearly twice that of the US, so this is not inconceivable, especially with China's initiatives that could bring benefits such as more investment inflows and assistance in infrastructure roll-out. On the flip side, signs of greater economic cooperation with China could prompt the Trump administration to keep US tariffs high against the Asean countries. The upshot is that uncertainty will likely remain elevated and tariffs may go back up after July, posing more downside risks for the region's growth outlook. The writer is chief Asean economist at Nomura
The Print
29-05-2025
- Business
- The Print
Musk's exit from Trump administration was inevitable. His shock-and-awe stint was unsustainable
Musk's exit from Trump administration was something everybody saw coming. His shock-and-awe stint, chain-sawing its way through bureaucracy, was unsustainable. Tesla was taking a big hit. His dislike for Trump's 'big, beautiful' spending bill was the perfect getaway. Trump 1.0 saw at least a dozen exits. It's two down already. Indian cyber scammers are targeting Japan's elderly. Act now, before it becomes a global threat After the US, Australia in 2023-24, Indian cyber scammers are targeting the elderly in Japan. ThePrint's report shows how massive amounts were stolen and converted into crypto. Stronger transnational strategy, uniform cyber laws, faster information sharing are urgently needed. Tackle the menace before Indian scam artists become a global threat.
