Iran, US and the 400-kg enriched Uranium bargaining chip
In the aftermath of the US airstrikes on Iran's nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan, the international community found unexpected relief in Tehran's restrained military response. Dubbed 'Besharat al-Fath', Iran's retaliatory strike targeted the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, CENTCOM's largest hub in the region. It was a carefully calibrated operation: No casualties, no infrastructure damage, and prior notification given to both Qatar and the United States. It was more restrained even compared to Iran's military response during Trump 1.0 following the assassination of Qassem Soleimani, the commander of the elite Quds Force, in 2020. Tehran opted for symbolism over escalation, signaling a strategic priority — regime survival.
The most striking feature of Iran's response was not what it did, but what it deliberately avoided — it did not withdraw from the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), and refrained from activating its regional proxies or disrupting the Strait of Hormuz. Further, the Supreme National Security Council has not yet endorsed the decision of Iran's Parliament to suspend its cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
Iran's restraint, facilitated in part by Qatar's backchannel diplomacy, helped sustain a fragile ceasefire following President Donald Trump's forceful intervention with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Though tentative, the truce has held so far.
As the guns fell silent, attention quickly pivoted to the damage inflicted on Iran's nuclear infrastructure and whether the mission was accomplished. A leaked Pentagon Initial Damage Assessment Report suggested the strikes might have set Iran's nuclear programme back by only a few months, a claim that infuriated President Trump and prompted swift rebuttals from the CIA and Pentagon. They insisted the facilities were 'obliterated' and maintained that Iran had not relocated its 400-kg stockpile of uranium enriched to 60 per cent. Israel's intelligence claimed that Iran's capabilities were degraded significantly, including a 50 per cent reduction in its missile launcher capacity and several years of delay to its nuclear programme.
Yet, at the heart of the post-conflict ambiguity lies a far more critical and unresolved question: The whereabouts of the 400 kg of highly-enriched uranium (HEU) last verified by the IAEA before the Israeli strikes on June 13. The Fordow facility, Iran's primary centre for higher enrichment of uranium, was struck by GBU 57, the Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) or the Bunker Buster bombs. Craters at the site confirmed deep penetration, but the IAEA has not been able to physically verify the damage so far.
On June 13, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi informed IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi that Iran would 'adopt special measures to protect our nuclear equipment and materials'. Grossi responded the same day, reminding Tehran of its obligations under the Safeguards Agreement to declare any transfer of nuclear material. However, no formal declaration followed. Subsequent satellite imagery from June 19-20 revealed unusual movement of trucks and bulldozers around Fordow, suggesting that Iran may have relocated sensitive materials, including the HEU stockpile, before the US bombing on June 22.
Although Tehran has issued no official confirmation of such a move, unnamed senior Iranian officials told Reuters on June 23 that a preemptive transfer of the uranium had taken place. This claim, however, remains unverifiable. The IAEA's post-strike assessments noted localised radioactive and chemical releases inside the damaged facilities, yet no off-site radiation levels were detected. This led observers to speculate that either Fordow's containment systems withstood the MOP bombardment, or the enriched uranium had indeed been moved. European intelligence reports suggest that Iran's HEU reserves were distributed across multiple, undisclosed facilities rather than being stored solely at Fordow. If true, this dispersal strategy not only safeguarded Iran's nuclear assets but also complicates verification efforts. It may take months for the IAEA to inspect the Fordow site, especially if structural integrity has been compromised.
This uncertainty grants Tehran diplomatic leverage. By neither confirming nor denying the relocation of the uranium, Iran preserves ambiguity, which can be tactically used in future negotiations. This is particularly important as Trump, speaking at the NATO Summit in The Hague, signaled potential talks with Iran next week, albeit in his characteristic manner: 'We may sign an agreement. I don't know. To me, I don't think it's that necessary.' Meanwhile, Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei delivered a fiery speech on June 26, reinforcing Iran's posture of defiance. He declared that Iran had delivered a 'hard slap' to the US by striking Al Udeid and warned of further retaliation if provoked. 'The nuclear facilities may be damaged, but our will and our capabilities are intact,' he said, dismissing any possibility of surrender.
While military confrontation has paused for now, the geopolitical stakes remain high. Iran still retains a significant portion of its long-range missile arsenal, and airstrikes alone cannot permanently dismantle a nuclear programme. But Iran is under pressure to have a deal, as otherwise all the UN sanctions that were imposed on it from 2006 to 2010 and suspended under the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action endorsed by the UNSC in July 2015) will 'snap back'.
As the ceasefire endures and oil prices stabilise, the immediate crisis appears contained. Yet, without a return to JCPOA-style negotiations, the world remains trapped in a cycle of brinkmanship.
At the center of this unfolding drama is the still-unresolved mystery of the 400 kg of HEU. Whether hidden, destroyed, or dispersed, its status will shape the contours of diplomacy in the coming weeks. Until inspectors return to Fordow and other sites, this enriched uranium serves both as a potential flashpoint and a bargaining chip.
The writer is a former Governor of India to the IAEA, Vienna, former Ambassador to Egypt, Austria, and Montenegro, and former Permanent Representative to the Arab League
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
United News of India
25 minutes ago
- United News of India
G7 Foreign Ministers reaffirm support for Israel, say Iran can never have nuclear weapons
The Hague, July 1 (UNI) G-7 Foreign Ministers have reaffirmed their support for Israel and asserted that Iran can never have nuclear weapons. The G7 Foreign Ministers in their meeting at The Hague said in a Joint Statement that Israel has a right to defend itself and urged Iran to refrain from reconstituting its enrichment activities. They called for resumption of negotiations resulting in a comprehensive, verifiable and durable agreement that addresses Iran's nuclear programme. For a "sustainable and credible resolution, we call on Iran to urgently resume full cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) as required by its safeguards obligations and provide the IAEA with verifiable information about all nuclear material in Iran, including by providing access to IAEA inspectors. We condemn calls in Iran for the arrest and execution of IAEA Director General Grossi." The Foreign Ministers underscored the centrality of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) as the cornerstone of the global nuclear non-proliferation regime and said it is essential that Iran remains party to and fully implements its obligations under the Treaty. Iran has already announced its decision to withdraw from the IAEA and expressed lack of faith in NPT. ''We reiterate our commitment to peace and stability in the Middle East. In this context, we reaffirm that Israel has a right to defend itself. We reiterate our support for the security of Israel.'' Reiterating support for the ceasefire between Israel and Iran, the G7 Foreign Ministers urged all parties to avoid actions that could further destabilize the region. They appreciated Qatar's role in facilitating the ceasefire and expressed solidarity with Qatar and Iraq following the recent strikes by Iran and its proxies and partners against their territory. "We welcome all efforts in the region towards stabilization and de-escalation." UNI RB SS
Indian Express
an hour ago
- Indian Express
20 states sue after Trump administration releases private Medicaid data to deportation officials
The Trump administration violated federal privacy laws when it turned over Medicaid data on millions of enrollees to deportation officials last month, California Attorney General Rob Bonta alleged on Tuesday, saying he and 19 other states' attorneys general have sued over the move. Health secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s advisers ordered the release of a dataset that includes the private health information of people living in California, Illinois, Washington state, and Washington, D.C., to the Department of Homeland Security last month, The Associated Press first reported last month. All of those states allow non-U.S. citizens to enroll in Medicaid programs that pay for their expenses using only state taxpayer dollars. The unusual data sharing of private health information, including addresses, names, social security numbers, immigration status, and claims data for enrollees in those states, was released to deportation officials as they accelerated enforcement efforts across the country. The data could be used to help the Department of Homeland Security locate migrants in its mass deportation campaign, experts said. Bonta said the Trump administration's data release violates federal health privacy protection laws, including the Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act (HIPAA). 'This is about flouting seven decades of federal law policy and practice that have made it clear that personal healthcare data is confidential and can only be shared in certain narrow circumstances that benefit the public's health or the Medicaid program,' Bonta said during a news conference on Tuesday. The Trump administration has sought to arm deportation officials with more data on immigrants. In May, for example, a federal judge refused to block the Internal Revenue Service from sharing immigrants' tax data with Immigration and Customs Enforcement to help agents locate and detain people living without legal status in the U.S. The move to shore up the federal government's data on immigrant Medicaid enrollees appears to have been set in motion in May, when the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services announced it would be reviewing some states rolls to ensure federal funds have not been used to pay for coverage for people with 'unsatisfactory immigration status.' As part of the review, CMS asked California, Washington and Illinois to share details about non-U.S. citizens who have enrolled in their state's Medicaid program, according to a June 6 memo signed by Medicaid Deputy Director Sara Vitolo that was obtained by the AP. The memo was written by several CMS officials under Vitolo's supervision, according to sources familiar with the process. CMS officials attempted to fight the data sharing request from Homeland Security, saying that to do so would violate federal laws, including the Social Security Act and the Privacy Act of 1974, according to the memo. The legal arguments outlined in the memo were not persuasive to Trump appointees at HHS, which oversees the Medicaid agency. Four days after the memo was sent, on June 10, HHS officials directed the transfer of 'the data to DHS by 5:30 ET today,' according to email exchanges obtained by AP. HHS is 'aggressively cracking down on states that may be misusing federal Medicaid funds,' agency spokesman Andrew Nixon said in a statement. The agency has not provided details on DHS' role in the effort. Nixon also defended the legality of releasing the data to DHS. 'HHS acted entirely within its legal authority – and in full compliance with all applicable laws – to ensure that Medicaid benefits are reserved for individuals who are lawfully entitled to receive them,' he said in the statement. Dozens of Democratic members of Congress — in both the House and Senate — have sent letters to the involved agencies, demanding that data sharing cease and that Homeland Security destroy the information it has received so far.
The Hindu
an hour ago
- The Hindu
Putin, Macron discuss West Asia, Ukraine in first phone call in 3 years
Russian President Vladimir Putin and his French counterpart Emmanuel Macron on Tuesday (July 1, 2025) discussed the situation in West Asia after U.S. strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities and situation in Ukraine. This is the first phone call between Mr. Putin and Mr. Macron after almost three years. During the call, both leaders underscored their responsibility to maintain stability in West Asia as the permanent members of the UN Security Council, the Kremlin press office said. The two leaders underscored Iran's right for civil nuclear research as a signatory of NPT as a non-nuclear state, it said. While discussing the situation in Ukraine, Mr. Putin told the French President the West ignited the conflict in Ukraine by ignoring Moscow's interests and building a bridgehead against Russia in that country. 'Mr. Putin reiterated that the Ukrainian conflict is a direct consequence of the policy of Western countries, which for years ignored the security interests of Russia, were building an anti-Russian foothold in Ukraine and condoned violations of the rights of Russian-speaking residents,' the Kremlin release said. Last time Mr. Putin and Mr. Macron had talked over phone was in September 2022, when they discussed the attack on Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant by Ukrainian forces.
