Latest news with #US-Israel-Iran
Indian Express
9 hours ago
- Politics
- Indian Express
US should negotiate a successor to JCPOA with Iran. Now is the time
The American strikes against Iran's nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan have brought to the fore three major issues: The success of the strikes, the future of Iran's highly enriched uranium (HEU), and the nature of US-Israel-Iran dealings going forward. It is too early to know the extent of the damage inflicted on the Iranian facilities. Of greatest interest is Fordow. Twelve GBU-57 bombs were used against the main ventilation shafts in an attempt to destroy the centrifuges and control centre, which are 80 metres underground. The GBU-57s are effective to a depth of 60 metres. It is unlikely, therefore, that the bombs penetrated through to the centrifuge hall and control room. The question, though, is: Did the hits severely damage the main underground facilities through the concussive effects of the bombs? If the main ventilation shafts collapsed, what happened to the personnel within the facility? If power supplies were interrupted, were the centrifuges damaged and is anything operating? Is the Iranian admission of severe damage a ruse? If Fordow has effectively been sealed and control over the centrifuges is lost, a direct hit on the centrifuge hall may not matter. The centrifuges will, over time, simply become inoperable. In this sense, the US President may be at least partly right: Fordow may have been obliterated functionally. The second question is: What has become of the HEU, which by all accounts is enriched to 60 per cent (and can be quickly enriched further to make a bomb)? Reports suggest there were about 160 kg of it at Fordow and perhaps 400 kg in total. The stockpiles were apparently moved before the strikes (though the Trump administration now contests this). If the stockpiles were removed, they would be dispersed to several sites to increase survivability. Nonetheless, given Israeli and US intelligence capabilities, the location of the HEU may soon be known. If Israel can find and kill top Iranian nuclear scientists and generals, it should eventually be able to find the HEU. Once the HEU is located, what can the US and Israel do? They could choose to do nothing, on the calculation that Iran will have difficulty in enriching the HEU for the bomb. Most analysts, however, conclude that Iran can sufficiently enrich the HEU, at a secret facility (assuming one exists), within months. So, doing nothing is probably not an option. Once the locations of the HEU are known, the US and Iran could resume their attack. The problem is that any direct strikes on the HEU would be tantamount to unleashing 'dirty bombs', in which radioactive materials are vented without a nuclear chain reaction. The global outcry would be significant were this to occur, and both the US and Israel may be wary of the blowback. Plus, Israel must worry that its own nuclear reactors could be targeted someday to produce a similar result. It may not, therefore, want to legitimate such an action. If a direct attack on the HEU is dangerous, Washington and Tel Aviv must instead gain control of the stockpile. Tehran would have to be persuaded to reveal the locations of the HEU, and full-scope safeguarding would follow. This, in turn, means that the IAEA inspectors must have access to Iranian nuclear facilities, as was envisaged by the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) agreement between the US and Iran during President Barack Obama's time. In addition, the various 24/7 surveillance mechanisms under the accord would have to be installed and operated. For a new deal to be struck on Iran's nuclear activities, the United States will need to negotiate a successor to the JCPOA. In his comments on the strikes on Iran, US President Donald Trump drew a parallel to the Hiroshima and Nagasaki attacks during World War II, seeming to suggest that Iran is similarly prostrate. In fact, the parallel is far from accurate. Iran is not an occupied country. Both sides face limits. The US wants to avoid another 'forever war', not least due to domestic opposition. In addition, its supplies of defensive missiles and other war materials are under stress from provisioning Ukraine and Israel. Israel's famous air defences are strained, perhaps to breaking point, and it will be increasingly vulnerable to retaliatory missile attacks. Iran's options, too, are limited. Tehran must worry that both Israel and the US will resume attacks, and not just on nuclear facilities, and that internal dissent will boil over. The conditions are ripe, therefore, for a new nuclear deal. That said, the ceasefire must hold, and Iran must have an authority figure that can deliver a deal. Neither is certain. In addition, the US may have to sweeten the deal economically by lifting sanctions. This will depend on Trump overcoming domestic and Israeli opposition. In short, there is a road ahead, but it is a rocky one. The writer is Wilmar Professor of Asian Studies and vice dean, Research and Development, Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore
NDTV
4 days ago
- Politics
- NDTV
Israel-Iran War LIVE Updates: Israel Says Iran Launched New Attack As US Celebrates "Historic Ceasefire"
US-Israel-Iran Conflict LIVE Updates: A series of powerful explosions rocked Tehran early Tuesday morning, hours after US President Donald Trump announced that Iran and Israel have agreed to a staggered ceasefire that would bring about an "official end" to a conflict threatening to escalate into a full-blown war involving the United States. Warplanes buzzed overhead as explosions shook the north and centre of Iran's capital around 3:00 am, just an hour before the ceasefire was due to take effect around 4:00 am. Tehran earlier said there was "no agreement" on a truce deal yet, and the fighting between the arch-foes entered the 12th day. However, later Iran's Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi hinted that the truce deal had come into effect. So far, there has been no official statement from Israel on the ceasefire agreement. Iran's Revolutionary Guards also promised that the United States would regret any further attacks on Iran. "We warn the foolish and stupid American in case of the repeat of an aggression or attack against the sacred system of the Islamic Republic of Iran and the proud martyr-bearing land of Iran, he will receive more crushing and regrettable responses that will serve as a lesson," the Guard's commander Mohammad Pakpour was quoted as saying by state television. Iran also called on residents of the Israeli city of Ramat Gan, east of the commercial capital Tel Aviv, to evacuate, as it planned to bomb the area.
Economic Times
4 days ago
- Politics
- Economic Times
Israel-Iran conflict Live Updates: Trump announces Israel-Iran ceasefire
24 Jun 2025 | 06:28:39 AM IST Israel-Iran conflict Live Updates: U.S. President Donald Trump said that a "complete and total" ceasefire between Israel and Iran will go into force with a view to ending the 12-day conflict between the two nations, moments after both sides threatened new attacks. Israel-Iran conflict Live Updates: U.S. President Donald Trump said that a "complete and total" ceasefire between Israel and Iran will go into force with a view to ending the 12-day conflict between the two nations, moments after both sides threatened new an Iranian official confirmed that Tehran had agreed to a ceasefire, there was no immediate comment yet from Israel.A senior White House official said Israel had agreed so long as Iran does not launch further attacks and that Trump brokered the deal in a call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin appeared to suggest that Israel and Iran would have some time to complete any missions that are underway, at which point the ceasefire would begin in a staged process."On the assumption that everything works as it should, which it will, I would like to congratulate both Countries, Israel and Iran, on having the Stamina, Courage, and Intelligence to end, what should be called, 'THE 12 DAY WAR'," he wrote on his Truth Social Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani secured Tehran's agreement during a call with Iranian officials, an official briefed on the negotiations told Reuters on Tuesday. Show more Secretary-General Antonio is publicly and privately 'being supportive of any diplomatic efforts that can be restored,' the UN spokesman about France and Russia who have offered to mediate in the US-Israel-Iran conflict, spokesman Stephane Dujarric said there are also other countries: 'We've seen Oman being very productive in that sense, and I think anyone that can help, should help.'The secretary-general 'has condemned every escalation in this conflict,' Dujarric told UN reporters Monday.'What we need to see is not more missiles going both ways or different ways. What we need to see is, as we said, a return to diplomacy.'He stressed: 'The more we see unilateral use of force, the more we see violations of international law, the riskier the region gets.' Iraq's foreign ministry said in a statement Monday that 'regional crises can only be resolved through dialogue, resorting to diplomatic channels, and avoiding military options, which only bring further escalation and suffering'.The statement stopped short of condemning the attack by Iran on a US base in Qatar, but said Iraq is 'following with deep concern the dangerous and accelerating escalation in the region'.Baghdad has close ties to both Washington and Tehran and has attempted to strike a delicate balance between them. Iran launched a missile attack Monday on a US military base in Qatar, retaliating for the American bombing of its nuclear sites. The attack came shortly after Qatar closed its airspace as a precaution amid threats from Iran. The US confirmed the air base in Qatar was targeted by a missile attack from Iran and said no casualties were said its Monday night missile attack on Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar matched the number of bombs dropped by the United States on its nuclear sites this weekend, signalling its likely desire to deescalate. U.S. President Donald Trump said that a "complete and total" ceasefire between Israel and Iran will go into force with a view to ending the 12-day conflict between the two nations, moments after both sides threatened new an Iranian official confirmed that Tehran had agreed to a ceasefire, there was no immediate comment yet from Israel.A senior White House official said Israel had agreed so long as Iran does not launch further attacks and that Trump brokered the deal in a call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin appeared to suggest that Israel and Iran would have some time to complete any missions that are underway, at which point the ceasefire would begin in a staged process."On the assumption that everything works as it should, which it will, I would like to congratulate both Countries, Israel and Iran, on having the Stamina, Courage, and Intelligence to end, what should be called, 'THE 12 DAY WAR'," he wrote on his Truth Social Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani secured Tehran's agreement during a call with Iranian officials, an official briefed on the negotiations told Reuters on Tuesday.
Time of India
4 days ago
- Politics
- Time of India
Israel-Iran conflict Live Updates: Trump announces Israel-Iran ceasefire
24 Jun 2025 | 06:09:05 AM IST Israel-Iran conflict Live Updates: U.S. President Donald Trump said that a "complete and total" ceasefire between Israel and Iran will go into force with a view to ending the 12-day conflict between the two nations, moments after both sides threatened new attacks. Israel-Iran conflict Live Updates: U.S. President Donald Trump said that a "complete and total" ceasefire between Israel and Iran will go into force with a view to ending the 12-day conflict between the two nations, moments after both sides threatened new an Iranian official confirmed that Tehran had agreed to a ceasefire, there was no immediate comment yet from Israel.A senior White House official said Israel had agreed so long as Iran does not launch further attacks and that Trump brokered the deal in a call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin appeared to suggest that Israel and Iran would have some time to complete any missions that are underway, at which point the ceasefire would begin in a staged process."On the assumption that everything works as it should, which it will, I would like to congratulate both Countries, Israel and Iran, on having the Stamina, Courage, and Intelligence to end, what should be called, 'THE 12 DAY WAR'," he wrote on his Truth Social Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani secured Tehran's agreement during a call with Iranian officials, an official briefed on the negotiations told Reuters on Tuesday. Show more Secretary-General Antonio is publicly and privately 'being supportive of any diplomatic efforts that can be restored,' the UN spokesman about France and Russia who have offered to mediate in the US-Israel-Iran conflict, spokesman Stephane Dujarric said there are also other countries: 'We've seen Oman being very productive in that sense, and I think anyone that can help, should help.'The secretary-general 'has condemned every escalation in this conflict,' Dujarric told UN reporters Monday.'What we need to see is not more missiles going both ways or different ways. What we need to see is, as we said, a return to diplomacy.'He stressed: 'The more we see unilateral use of force, the more we see violations of international law, the riskier the region gets.' Iraq's foreign ministry said in a statement Monday that 'regional crises can only be resolved through dialogue, resorting to diplomatic channels, and avoiding military options, which only bring further escalation and suffering'.The statement stopped short of condemning the attack by Iran on a US base in Qatar, but said Iraq is 'following with deep concern the dangerous and accelerating escalation in the region'.Baghdad has close ties to both Washington and Tehran and has attempted to strike a delicate balance between them. Iran launched a missile attack Monday on a US military base in Qatar, retaliating for the American bombing of its nuclear sites. The attack came shortly after Qatar closed its airspace as a precaution amid threats from Iran. The US confirmed the air base in Qatar was targeted by a missile attack from Iran and said no casualties were said its Monday night missile attack on Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar matched the number of bombs dropped by the United States on its nuclear sites this weekend, signalling its likely desire to deescalate. U.S. President Donald Trump said that a "complete and total" ceasefire between Israel and Iran will go into force with a view to ending the 12-day conflict between the two nations, moments after both sides threatened new an Iranian official confirmed that Tehran had agreed to a ceasefire, there was no immediate comment yet from Israel.A senior White House official said Israel had agreed so long as Iran does not launch further attacks and that Trump brokered the deal in a call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin appeared to suggest that Israel and Iran would have some time to complete any missions that are underway, at which point the ceasefire would begin in a staged process."On the assumption that everything works as it should, which it will, I would like to congratulate both Countries, Israel and Iran, on having the Stamina, Courage, and Intelligence to end, what should be called, 'THE 12 DAY WAR'," he wrote on his Truth Social Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani secured Tehran's agreement during a call with Iranian officials, an official briefed on the negotiations told Reuters on Tuesday.
The Star
4 days ago
- Business
- The Star
Brief dip in ringgit predicted
PETALING JAYA: The ringgit is expected to weaken in the immediate aftermath of the US-Israel-Iran conflict, but analysts believe the depreciation will be short-lived, says economist Prof Emeritus Dr Barjoyai Bardai. He said the ringgit could fall to around RM4.40 against the US dollar over the next three months, before stabilising as markets adjust. 'Consumer perception will play a key role during this period,' he said, stressing that how Malaysians interpret ongoing developments will directly influence domestic spending trends. Prof Barjoyai said the US dollar might strengthen in the short term due to perceived dominance but this trend is unlikely to last. 'In the mid to long term, the world will start distancing itself from the United States and the dollar,' he said, adding that anti-US sentiment, especially among Muslim-majority countries, could lead to a drop in global demand for the greenback. These concerns are compounded by escalating tensions in the Middle East, particularly Iran's latest warning to close a key energy chokepoint. If implemented, the move could send Brent crude prices soaring well above US$100 (RM428.65) per barrel, according to analysts from JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank. Dr Barjoyai also said the closure of the Strait of Hormuz might trigger global supply disruptions, leading to short supply and rising costs. Even if the strait isn't fully closed, Iran may impose surcharges or fees, which will still drive up costs of imports and exports, he added. He said businesses, particularly wholesalers, retailers, SMEs and microenterprises would likely raise their prices due to higher fuel costs, as diesel and petrol are key to their operations. 'With Malaysia's economy so dependent on consumer spending, perception is critical. If people expect the worst, growth will contract and inflation will accelerate,' he said. To ease the burden, he suggested the government consider postponing the sales and service tax (SST) expansion and RON95 subsidy rationalisation, or at least communicate clearly how minimal the actual impact would be. Yesterday, Iran's parliament announced plans to possibly close the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation for recent US and Israeli strikes on its nuclear and military facilities. Senior fellow at the Nusantara Academy for Strategic Research Dr Azmi Hassan said Malaysia may face economic repercussions if tensions between the United States, Israel and Iran escalate further, particularly if Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz. He said any disruption would still impact fuel prices and the wider economy. 'The Strait of Hormuz is a critical route. If it's closed, the whole world suffers. Most Asean nations, including Malaysia, are dependent on Gulf oil,' he said. Senior lecturer at UiTM and director of the Asia West East Centre Dr Abdolreza Alami echoed a similar view, saying Malaysia's energy security faces serious risks if the Strait of Hormuz is disrupted amid the escalating military action. He said Malaysia sources nearly 30% of its oil and gas from the Persian Gulf, with the strait acting as a vital artery for global supply. Any closure or instability there could trigger a fuel price surge, he added. He believes that oil prices could possibly hit US$150 (RM642.97) or more per barrel and petrol prices soaring beyond €2.5 (RM12.24) per litre. He said that would drive up costs across key Malaysian sectors including electronics, petrochemicals and palm oil, undermining their global competitiveness. 'We are also seeing a 20-fold spike in insurance costs for ships in the Gulf, which could cause major shipping delays at Port Klang and Singapore,' he added. Abdolreza also cautioned that the conflict could derail Asean's growing economic engagement with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, undermining regional efforts to reduce Western dependency. A united Asean response, he said, could boost the grouping's global credibility as a champion of justice and sovereignty.
