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First Post
4 days ago
- Politics
- First Post
Iran must tread carefully in framing post-ceasefire strategy
As a Persian proverb warns, 'Bravado without power is like a lion's roar from a sheep's throat,' Iran's defiance may echo loudly, but it risks being drowned out by the consequences of its own overreach read more The ceasefire notwithstanding, Iran has a brand new strategic mix for the near future. The first part of Iran's war strategy includes threatening traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint through which a fifth of the world's oil flows. This is a high-stakes gamble rooted in the sea denial principles of the British naval theorist Julian Corbett. Yet, despite its calculated bravado, Iran's approach is likely to lead to a protracted conflict it cannot win, exposing its strategic vulnerabilities and risking regional escalation. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Corbett's sea denial theory, which emphasises disrupting an adversary's control of maritime routes without seeking outright naval dominance, is evident in three facets of Iran's strategy. First, Iran deploys fast-attack boats armed with anti-ship missiles, designed to harass and deter larger naval forces through asymmetric hit-and-run tactics. Second, its naval assets, including submarines and mine-laying vessels, aim to create uncertainty and raise the costs of operating in the Strait. Third, Iran leverages its coastal geography, studded with missile batteries and radar stations, to project power over the narrow waterway, threatening commercial and military shipping alike. These tactics align with Corbett's vision of a weaker navy frustrating a stronger opponent's freedom of movement. Yet Iran's strategy extends beyond the Strait. It is likely to be flanked by the continued threat of missile strikes on American air bases in Qatar, Bahrain, and Iraq, targeting the US military presence that underpins regional security. These attacks, however, are unlikely to yield decisive results. US bases are fortified, with advanced missile defence systems like Patriot and Terminal High Altitude Area Defence (THAAD) capable of intercepting most threats. Moreover, such strikes risk galvanising American resolve and international condemnation without significantly degrading US operational capacity. A critical flaw in Iran's plan lies in the geography of the strait itself. Iran controls only the northern half; the southern half is Oman's jurisdiction. This bilateral control severely limits Iran's ability to enforce a complete blockade without provoking Oman or other Gulf states, which would escalate the conflict into a broader regional war. The US Fifth Fleet, based in Bahrain, further tilts the balance. With its carrier strike groups, destroyers, and air superiority, the fleet possesses overwhelming firepower to counter Iran's naval and missile threats. While Iran's asymmetric tactics may cause temporary disruptions, they cannot match the sustained power projection of the US Navy. The Fifth Fleet's ability to secure the Strait, supported by allies like Israel, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, ensures that any Iranian blockade would be short-lived. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Iran's strategy also risks self-inflicted wounds. By threatening to close the Strait, Iran endangers its own energy exports, which account for a significant portion of its revenue. China, Iran's largest oil buyer, would view such disruptions with alarm, as Beijing relies on stable Gulf energy supplies. Unlike Saddam Hussein, who recklessly attacked oil infrastructure during the Iran-Iraq War, Iran is unlikely to repeat this mistake, aware that alienating China and other trading partners would compound its economic woes. Compounding Iran's challenges is its weakened regional position. Its proxies, Hamas and Hezbollah, are diminished, with the former reeling from Israel's campaigns and the latter constrained by Lebanon's internal chaos. Iran's influence in Syria and Iraq has waned, eroded by local resistance and external pressures. Domestically, Iran's military is hamstrung by sanctions, outdated equipment, and a lack of air superiority—a critical disadvantage against the US and its allies. Yet this weakness makes Iran dangerous. With its prestige at stake, Tehran may feel compelled to double down and break the ceasefire at the earliest. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Iran's gambit in the Strait of Hormuz is thus a paradox: a bold strategy born of vulnerability. As a Persian proverb warns, 'Bravado without power is like a lion's roar from a sheep's throat.' Iran's defiance may echo loudly, but it risks being drowned out by the consequences of its own overreach. The writer is a senior journalist with expertise in defence. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost's views.
Yahoo
23-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Military bases or vital waterway: Iran weighs response to US strikes
Iran has vowed to retaliate for US air strikes on its nuclear facilities, and has two main options: attacking American forces in the region, and closing the strategic Strait of Hormuz. An advisor to Iran's supreme leader issued a warning on Sunday, saying any US base in the region that takes part in attacks is a "legitimate target". Disrupting traffic through the narrow Strait of Hormuz, a vital route for oil and gas, would send energy prices soaring in a global inflationary shock. Closing the waterway would be "extremely dangerous", Kaja Kallas, the European Union's top diplomat, said on Monday. AFP looks at the two scenarios and their possible implications. - Strait of Hormuz - The narrow, U-shaped seaway snaking between Iran and the Arabian Peninsula is the gateway for Gulf energy shipments to global markets, carrying one-fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas exports. Closing the 50-kilometre (30-mile) wide channel could spike oil to $120 a barrel, according to Deutsche Bank research, raising prices of transport, food and utilities around the world. "It's in the best interest of all Middle Eastern countries to keep the Strait of Hormuz open and prevent any supply disruption," Rystad Energy senior analyst Lu Ming Pang wrote last week. Currently, traders do not appear too concerned. Brent crude was trading at $76 on Monday, marginally changed from Friday's close. "Looking at the oil price this morning, it is clear that the oil market doesn't assign a very high probability of (a closure) happening," said Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB bank. The big question is whether Iran is prepared to detonate this economic hand-grenade. Despite threats in the past, including in 2011 as oil sanctions loomed, it has not pulled the pin. According to a senior European official, the Iranians do not have the means to block the strait "long-term", but they could hamper shipping. But "it would be a form of suicide to do that," the official said. "The effect on Israel would be close to zero, the effect on themselves immense, as well as on the United States, Europe and China." Iranian forces have nearly 200 fast patrol boats that can fire anti-ship missiles or torpedoes, plus mine-laying vessels, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies. But the US Fifth Fleet, a major naval force, is stationed across the Gulf in Bahrain, and Iran remains under daily fire from Israeli warplanes and drones. Iran's own energy exports, in spite of sanctions, remain an important source of income for the world's ninth-biggest oil-producing country. - US bases - With United States military bases spread around the Gulf countries to Iran's west, there is no shortage of potential targets. Kuwait, in a legacy of the 1990 Gulf war, houses about 13,500 US forces, while the biggest US base in the region is Al Udeid in Qatar. The US Fifth Fleet, covering the Gulf, Red Sea and parts of the Indian Ocean, is based in Bahrain, and about 3,500 US personnel are stationed at Al Dhafra Air Base in the United Arab Emirates. In Iraq, US troops are deployed in various installations, including the Al-Asad and Arbil air bases, as part of an anti-jihadist coalition. Iran-backed Iraqi armed factions have threatened Washington's interests should it join Israel's campaign, having targeted them in previous years. Increased US involvement in the Iran-Israel war risks attacks "on US interests, US bases and such across the region", said Renad Mansour, senior research fellow at Chatham House. "The US attack on Iran has now meant that this war is between Israel, the United States and Iran, which means that across the region, Iran may seek to target the US," he added. However, this option is also fraught for Iran as it risks isolating itself from the powerful Gulf monarchies that enjoy good relations with Washington. "Tehran is unlikely to strike Gulf Arab states," said Andreas Krieg, a senior lecturer at King's College London. "Even as it sees the UAE and Saudi Arabia as quiet enablers of the US-Israeli axis, Iran understands that any attack on their soil would likely unify them against it and open the door for greater American military presence. "Instead, Iran may issue veiled warnings to these states, use regional proxies to pressure them, or engage in cyber or intelligence disruptions targeting their interests -- maintaining plausible deniability while raising the cost of involvement." th-rh/ami/jsa
Channel 4
23-06-2025
- Politics
- Channel 4
Iran fires back: missiles launched at U.S. airbase in Qatar
Iran said it would retaliate and tonight it did – launching missiles at US bases in Qatar – with air raid sirens also sounding in Bahrain – home to the US Fifth Fleet. The main US base in northeast Syria is also on full alert. Airspace over much of the region remains closed. The Al Udeid Air Base is the biggest US military facility in the region. It's a key air and logistics hub – with around 10,000 American troops stationed there. Iranian state media said the al-Asad Airbase in Iraq was ALSO targeted – but there have been no reports of any explosions there. All this after Israel gave details of its latest strikes on Iranian government sites in Tehran.
Mint
23-06-2025
- Politics
- Mint
Israel-Iran conflict: Qatar closes airspace, US and UK tell citizens to shelter in place
Qatar temporarily suspended air traffic across the country on Monday and some Western embassies advised their citizens there to shelter in place after Iran threatened retaliation for US strikes on its nuclear sites. Gas-rich Qatar, which lies 190 kilometres (120 miles) south of Iran across the Gulf, is home to the United States' largest military base in the region, Al Udeid. "The competent authorities announce the temporary suspension of air traffic in the country's airspace, as part of a set of precautionary measures taken based on developments in the region," the foreign ministry said. It added authorities were monitoring the situation "in coordination with regional and international partners". Earlier, the US embassy in Qatar advised Americans there not to go out, with other Western embassies echoing the warning. "Out of an abundance of caution we recommend American citizens shelter in place until further notice," the US embassy said on its website. Britain and Canada later cited the US security alert in their own recommendations to nationals. Iran's armed forces threatened on Monday to inflict "serious, unpredictable consequences" on the US after it joined its ally Israel's campaign against the Islamic republic, carrying out heavy strikes on three nuclear sites. In Bahrain, a close neighbour of Qatar that hosts the US Fifth Fleet, the American embassy "temporarily shifted a portion of its employees to local telework", it said on X. Bahraini authorities had already told most government employees to work from home until further notice, citing "regional circumstances". Following the US warning in Doha, Qatar's foreign ministry spokesman Majed al-Ansari said such statements by foreign embassies "do not necessarily reflect the existence of specific or credible threats". "We would like to reassure the public that the security situation in the state remains stable," he wrote on X. "Qatar continues to exert intensive diplomatic efforts to de-escalate tensions in the region." On Sunday, the US State Department advised Americans worldwide to "exercise increased caution" because of the war between Israel and Iran. After Israel's first strikes on Iran on June 13, the US embassy in Qatar had told its staff and other Americans to exercise caution and "limit non-essential travel to Al Udeid Air Base".
eNCA
23-06-2025
- Business
- eNCA
Military bases or vital waterway: Iran weighs response to US strikes
Iran has vowed to retaliate for US air strikes on its nuclear facilities, and has two main options: attacking American forces in the region, and closing the strategic Strait of Hormuz. An advisor to Iran's supreme leader issued a warning on Sunday, saying any US base in the region that takes part in attacks is a "legitimate target". Disrupting traffic through the narrow Strait of Hormuz, a vital route for oil and gas, would send energy prices soaring in a global inflationary shock. Closing the waterway would be "extremely dangerous", Kaja Kallas, the European Union's top diplomat, said on Monday. AFP looks at the two scenarios and their possible implications. - Strait of Hormuz - AFP | Jonathan WALTER, Valentina BRESCHI The narrow, U-shaped seaway snaking between Iran and the Arabian Peninsula is the gateway for Gulf energy shipments to global markets, carrying one-fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas exports. Closing the 50-kilometre (30-mile) wide channel could spike oil to $120 a barrel, according to Deutsche Bank research, raising prices of transport, food and utilities around the world. "It's in the best interest of all Middle Eastern countries to keep the Strait of Hormuz open and prevent any supply disruption," Rystad Energy senior analyst Lu Ming Pang wrote last week. Currently, traders do not appear too concerned. Brent crude was trading at $76 on Monday, marginally changed from Friday's close. "Looking at the oil price this morning, it is clear that the oil market doesn't assign a very high probability of (a closure) happening," said Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB bank. The big question is whether Iran is prepared to detonate this economic hand-grenade. Despite threats in the past, including in 2011 as oil sanctions loomed, it has not pulled the pin. AFP | Nalini LEPETIT-CHELLA, Omar KAMAL According to a senior European official, the Iranians do not have the means to block the strait "long-term", but they could hamper shipping. But "it would be a form of suicide to do that," the official said. "The effect on Israel would be close to zero, the effect on themselves immense, as well as on the United States, Europe and China." Iranian forces have nearly 200 fast patrol boats that can fire anti-ship missiles or torpedoes, plus mine-laying vessels, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies. But the US Fifth Fleet, a major naval force, is stationed across the Gulf in Bahrain, and Iran remains under daily fire from Israeli warplanes and drones. Iran's own energy exports, in spite of sanctions, remain an important source of income for the world's ninth-biggest oil-producing country. - US bases - With United States military bases spread around the Gulf countries to Iran's west, there is no shortage of potential targets. Kuwait, in a legacy of the 1990 Gulf war, houses about 13,500 US forces, while the biggest US base in the region is Al Udeid in Qatar. The US Fifth Fleet, covering the Gulf, Red Sea and parts of the Indian Ocean, is based in Bahrain, and about 3,500 US personnel are stationed at Al Dhafra Air Base in the United Arab Emirates. In Iraq, US troops are deployed in various installations, including the Al-Asad and Arbil air bases, as part of an anti-jihadist coalition. Iran-backed Iraqi armed factions have threatened Washington's interests should it join Israel's campaign, having targeted them in previous years. Increased US involvement in the Iran-Israel war risks attacks "on US interests, US bases and such across the region", said Renad Mansour, senior research fellow at Chatham House. "The US attack on Iran has now meant that this war is between Israel, the United States and Iran, which means that across the region, Iran may seek to target the US," he added. However, this option is also fraught for Iran as it risks isolating itself from the powerful Gulf monarchies that enjoy good relations with Washington. "Tehran is unlikely to strike Gulf Arab states," said Andreas Krieg, a senior lecturer at King's College London. "Even as it sees the UAE and Saudi Arabia as quiet enablers of the US-Israeli axis, Iran understands that any attack on their soil would likely unify them against it and open the door for greater American military presence. "Instead, Iran may issue veiled warnings to these states, use regional proxies to pressure them, or engage in cyber or intelligence disruptions targeting their interests -- maintaining plausible deniability while raising the cost of involvement." By Talek Harris With Rouba El Husseini In Baghdad
