Latest news with #USjobsdata
Yahoo
03-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Stocks at record high ahead of US payrolls, UK bonds steady
By Marc Jones and Stella Qiu LONDON (Reuters) - World shares were at a record high and the dollar firmed on Thursday ahead of key U.S. jobs data, while Europe saw Britain's bond markets steady after debt worries prompted a selloff the previous session. A deal between the United States and Vietnam ahead of next week's worldwide U.S. trade tariff deadline provided another boost for the bulls overnight after a hectic run up in markets in recent weeks. The pan-European STOXX 600 index advanced 0.4%, leaving MSCI's main 47-country world shares gauge at its seventh record high in the last eight sessions and the dollar close to ending a four-day run of falls. Britain's bonds clawed back some of their heavy losses spurred a day earlier by uncertainty over finance minister Rachel Reeves' future, but they remained weaker than recent levels. The 20-year gilt yield, which is a proxy of longer term UK government borrowing costs, eased by 8 basis points after its biggest spike on Wednesday since October 2022 - during the ill-fated premiership of Liz Truss. A tearful appearance from UK finance minister Rachel Reeves in parliament had sparked uncertainty about her future and Britain's public finances after the government was forced to ditch billions of pounds worth of welfare spending cuts. "Some worries remain about the government being backed into a corner and losing its grip on the public finances," said Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets at broker Hargreaves Lansdown. Focus was also on the U.S. payrolls report later which will steer ongoing debate on if and when the Federal Reserve will next cut U.S. interest rates. Analysts are forecasting a rise of 110,000 jobs in June with the jobless rate ticking up to 4.3% but the stakes are high after a private sector payrolls report surprised with the first fall in over two years. Traders were also waiting to see if U.S. President Donald Trump's tax and spending bill gets passed by Congress in the next 24 hours. The bill is expected to add $3.3 trillion to the United States' $36 trillion of national debt over the next decade, according to nonpartisan analysts. Wall Street had closed on Wednesday at record highs after Trump announced that the U.S. had struck a trade deal with Vietnam, including a 20% tariff on exports to the U.S. That is lower than the 46% tariff that had been threatened, but still much higher than previous rates. Vietnamese shares gained 0.5% to the highest since April 2022 although the local dong currency hit a record low of 26,229 per dollar. "More trade deals may soon be announced but the 20% tariff agreed with Vietnam does not augur well, and that or even higher could become the norm for some including Europe and Japan," said Shane Oliver, chief economist at AMP. Indeed, Japan has invoked national interests as talks with the U.S. struggled, while South Korean President Lee Jae Myung said on Thursday U.S. tariff negotiations were looking difficult and he could not say if talks could conclude by next Tuesday. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares closed up 0.3% higher. China's blue-chip index rose 0.6% after limp services data bolstered expectations of more stimulus, while Japan's Nikkei finished flat. Nasdaq futures and S&P 500 futures were broadly flat in Europe too. [.N] JOBS RISK The dollar was hovering just above a three-year low against a basket of its major peers, up 0.1% for the day. Sterling recovered 0.2% to $1.3662 after its 0.8% fall on Wednesday. The main risk event for markets will be the U.S. payrolls figures. The resilience of the labour market is a major reason the majority of Federal Reserve members say they can afford to hold off on cutting rates until they can gauge the real impact of tariffs on inflation. "These labour market indicators warn of the risk that the unemployment rate could spike to 4.4%, the highest since October 2021," said Tony Sycamore, analyst at IG. "This would quickly increase the probability of a July Fed rate cut to around 70%." Futures imply just a 25% probability for a rate cut this month from the Fed, which has not eased policy at all this year, drawing the ire of Trump who reiterated his call on Wednesday for Chair Jerome Powell to resign. Trump, who said rates should be cut to 1% from the current Fed benchmark of 4.25% to 4.50%, has repeatedly railed against Powell for not lowering borrowing costs since his return to the White House in January. A UBS survey on Thursday showed two in three reserve managers fear Fed independence is at risk and nearly half think the rule of law in the U.S. may deteriorate enough to influence their asset allocation significantly. The Treasuries market was tense before the data as a weak jobs report would send yields sharply lower. Ten-year Treasury bond yields slipped 3 basis points to 4.265% on Thursday, while two-year yields eased 2 bps to 3.772%. In commodities markets, oil prices were lower after jumping 3% overnight as Iran suspended cooperation with the U.N. nuclear watchdog. Brent crude futures slipped 0.8% to $68.64 per barrel, while U.S. crude was 0.7% lower on the day. Gold prices also dipped, easing 0.1% to $3,352 an ounce. (Additional reporting by Andy Bruce; Editing by Emelia Sithole-Matarise)
Economy ME
03-07-2025
- Business
- Economy ME
Dubai 24-carat gold prices rise to AED403.75 as global rates edge up ahead of U.S. payroll data
Gold prices rose marginally on Thursday as investors remained cautious ahead of the release of the U.S. payroll data later in the day, which is expected to provide insights into the Federal Reserve's policy trajectory. In Dubai, gold rates rose, with 24-carat gold rising AED1.25 to AED403.75 and 22-carat gold gaining AED1.5 to AED374. Additionally, 21-carat gold rose AED1.25 to AED358.25, and 18-carat gold was up AED1.25 to AED307.25. Globally, spot gold gained 0.04 percent to $3,349.97 per ounce, as of 4:26 GMT, while U.S. gold futures edged up 0.01 percent to $3,360.10. The dollar index was up 0.06 percent to 96.84, making gold prices more expensive for other currency holders. Market in wait-and-see mode ahead of U.S. jobs data Gold prices seem to be consolidating within the $3,320 to $3,360 range, said analysts, with the market adopting a wait-and-see approach ahead of U.S. Non-Farm Payroll and ISM Services PMI data . Data released by ADP showed U.S. private payrolls dropped by 33,000 jobs in June, marking the first decline in more than two years, as economic uncertainty impacted hiring. Meanwhile, low layoffs continued to support the labor market. As gold prices hold largely steady, investors are now awaiting the non-farm payrolls report on Thursday, which is expected to show an addition of 110,000 jobs in June, down from 139,000 in May, according to a Reuters poll. This week, Trump's multitrillion-dollar tax bill received Senate approval. 'The tax bill, which is expected to widen the deficit by $3.3 trillion over the next decade, now awaits voting in the House. If endorsed, it would enhance the appeal of gold as a haven, especially with investors reconsidering their U.S. asset exposure in response to Trump's trade and economic policies,' said Vijay Valecha, chief investment officer, Century Financial. Vietnam and U.S. reach trade deal ahead of July 9 deadline In a major trade development, the U.S. will impose a lower-than-promised 20 percent tariff on goods from Vietnam, President Donald Trump announced on Wednesday. The Southeast Asian nation is the U.S.' tenth-largest trading partner. Additionally, the dollar hit a 3-year low, which also supports the bullish momentum of gold prices in the previous session. Meanwhile, investors are monitoring U.S. trade negotiations, where Trump is sticking by his July 9 deadline to raise tariffs. 'Although it has not been able to capitalize on its two-month up trend, the bigger picture is still gold-friendly,' added Valecha. The U.S. and India negotiators pushed to finalize a tariff-reducing deal ahead of Trump's deadline. Trump has indicated no signs of extending the negotiation deadline despite stalled discussions with Japan, another key trade partner, but expressed optimism about an India deal. Non-yielding gold tends to perform well during economic uncertainty and in a low-interest-rate environment. Read: Oil prices fall 0.71 percent to $68.62 on concerns over weak U.S. demand Other precious metals As gold prices remained largely unchanged, the precious metals market was down. Spot silver fell 0.67 percent to $36.34, while platinum dipped 1.49 percent to $1,397.63. In addition, palladium declined 1.14 percent to $1,141.76 and copper dipped 0.08 percent to $5.15.
Asharq Al-Awsat
04-06-2025
- Business
- Asharq Al-Awsat
Gold Holds Ground as Jobs Data offsets Safe-haven Demand
Gold prices held steady on Wednesday as stronger US jobs data countered safe-haven demand driven by simmering trade tensions between the US and China. Spot gold was steady at $3,349.19 an ounce, as of 1145 GMT. US gold futures were unchanged at $3,373.10. "US labor data gave markets a bit of relief yesterday, causing a small dip in gold prices. However, tensions between the US and China are still keeping risks high and gold prices supported," said Zain Vawda, market analyst at MarketPulse by OANDA. Job openings in the US rose in April, though layoffs surged to their highest level in nine months, economic data showed, hinting at softening labor market conditions, Reuters reported. Donald Trump said on Wednesday that Chinese President Xi Jinping is tough and "extremely hard to make a deal with," days after the US President accused China of violating an agreement to roll back tariffs and trade restrictions. Washington doubled its tariffs on steel and aluminium imports on Wednesday, the same day the Trump administration expects trading partners to make "best offers" to avoid other punishing import levies from taking effect in early July. The focus will be on Friday's US non-farm payrolls data for more cues on the Federal Reserve's policy path. Federal Reserve's policy path. Fed officials have reiterated their cautious policy stance, citing risks from trade tensions and economic uncertainty. "If the data is stronger than expected, interest rate cut expectations are likely to wane, which would weigh on the gold price," said Commerzbank analyst Carsten Fritsch. "We see gold trading in a range between $3,300 and $3,400 per troy ounce in the short term." Gold, a safe-haven asset during times of political and economic uncertainty, tends to thrive in a low-interest-rate environment. Elsewhere, spot silver fell 0.5% to $34.32 an ounce, platinum rose 1.1% to $1,085.50 and palladium lost 0.5% to $1,005.11.
Reuters
02-06-2025
- Business
- Reuters
Asia share markets, dollar wary on tariff news
SYDNEY, June 2 (Reuters) - Asian share markets made a wary start to the week on Monday as investors navigated the shifting sands of White House tariff policy, while awaiting key U.S. jobs data and a widely expected cut in European interest rates. There was little obvious reaction to President Donald Trump's threat late Friday to double tariffs on imported steel and aluminium to 50%, beginning on June 4, a sudden twist that drew the ire of European Union negotiators. Speaking on Sunday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Trump would soon speak with Chinese President Xi Jinping to iron out a dispute over critical minerals. White House officials continued to play down a court ruling that Trump had overstepped his authority by imposing across-the-board duties on imports from U.S. trading partners. "The court ruling will complicate the path ahead on trade policy, but there remains an ample set of provisions available to the administration to deliver its desired results," said Bruce Kasman, chief economist at JPMorgan. "There is a commitment to maintaining a minimum U.S. tariff rate of at least 10% and imposing further sector tariff increases," he added. "An increase in ASEAN to discourage transhipment looks likely, and the bias for higher tariffs on US-EU trade persists." Markets will be particularly interested to see if Trump goes ahead with the 50% tariff on Wednesday, or backs off as he has done so often before. In the meantime, caution reigned and MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS), opens new tab went flat. Japan's Nikkei (.N225), opens new tab fell 1.1%, while South Korean stocks (.KS11), opens new tab dipped 0.1%. S&P 500 futures eased 0.2% and Nasdaq futures lost 0.3%. The S&P climbed 6.2% in May, while the Nasdaq rallied 9.6% on hopes final import levies will be far lower than the initial sky-high levels. Front-running the tariffs has already caused wild swings in the economy, with a contraction in the first quarter likely turning into a jump this quarter as imports fall back. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate is running at an annualised 3.8%, though analysts assume this will slow sharply in the second half of the year. Data this week on U.S. manufacturing and jobs will offer a timely reading on the pulse of activity, with payrolls seen rising 130,000 in May while unemployment stays at 4.2%. A rise in unemployment is one of the few developments that could get the Federal Reserve to start thinking of easing policy again, with investors having largely given up on a cut this month or next. A move in September is seen at around a 75% chance, though Fed officials have stopped well short of endorsing such pricing. There are at least 11 Fed speakers on the diary for this week, led by Fed Chair Jerome Powell later on Monday. Fed Governor Christopher Waller did say on Sunday that cuts remain possible later this year as he saw downside risks to economic activity and employment and upside risks to inflation from the tariffs. A softer jobs report would be a relief for the Treasury market, where 30-year yields continue to flirt with the 5% barrier as investors demand a higher premium to offset the ever-expanding supply of debt. The Senate this week will start considering a tax-and-spending bill that will add an estimated $3.8 trillion to the federal government's $36.2 trillion in debt. Across the Atlantic, the European Central Bank is considered almost certain to cut its rates by a quarter point to 2.0% on Thursday, while markets will be sensitive to guidance on the chance of another move as early as July. The Bank of Canada meets Wednesday and markets imply a 76% chance it will hold rates at 2.75%, while sounding dovish on the future given the tariff-fuelled risk of recession there. Widening rate spreads have so far offered only limited support to the U.S. dollar. "The greenback remains near the lower end of its post-2022 range and considerably weaker than interest rate differentials would imply," noted Jonas Goltermann, deputy chief markets economist at Capital Economics. "Sentiment around the greenback remains negative and it continues to look vulnerable to further bad news on the fiscal and trade policy fronts." On Monday, the dollar had dipped 0.2% on the yen to 143.79 , while the euro edged up a fraction to $1.1353 . The greenback also slipped 0.1% on the Canadian dollar to 1.3727 , getting no tailwind from Trump's threat of 50% tariffs on Canadian steel exports. In commodity markets, gold edged up 0.6% to $3,310 an ounce , having lost 1.9% last week. Oil prices bounced after OPEC+ decided to increase output in July by the same amount as it did in each of the prior two months, a relief to some who had feared an even bigger increase. Brent rose $1.07 to $63.85 a barrel, while U.S. crude gained $1.18 to $61.95 per barrel.
