Asia share markets, dollar wary on tariff news
There was little obvious reaction to President Donald Trump's threat late Friday to double tariffs on imported steel and aluminium to 50%, beginning on June 4, a sudden twist that drew the ire of European Union negotiators.
Speaking on Sunday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Trump would soon speak with Chinese President Xi Jinping to iron out a dispute over critical minerals.
White House officials continued to play down a court ruling that Trump had overstepped his authority by imposing across-the-board duties on imports from U.S. trading partners.
"The court ruling will complicate the path ahead on trade policy, but there remains an ample set of provisions available to the administration to deliver its desired results," said Bruce Kasman, chief economist at JPMorgan.
"There is a commitment to maintaining a minimum U.S. tariff rate of at least 10% and imposing further sector tariff increases," he added. "An increase in ASEAN to discourage transhipment looks likely, and the bias for higher tariffs on US-EU trade persists."
Markets will be particularly interested to see if Trump goes ahead with the 50% tariff on Wednesday, or backs off as he has done so often before.
In the meantime, caution reigned and MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS), opens new tab went flat. Japan's Nikkei (.N225), opens new tab fell 1.1%, while South Korean stocks (.KS11), opens new tab dipped 0.1%.
S&P 500 futures eased 0.2% and Nasdaq futures lost 0.3%. The S&P climbed 6.2% in May, while the Nasdaq rallied 9.6% on hopes final import levies will be far lower than the initial sky-high levels.
Front-running the tariffs has already caused wild swings in the economy, with a contraction in the first quarter likely turning into a jump this quarter as imports fall back.
The Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate is running at an annualised 3.8%, though analysts assume this will slow sharply in the second half of the year.
Data this week on U.S. manufacturing and jobs will offer a timely reading on the pulse of activity, with payrolls seen rising 130,000 in May while unemployment stays at 4.2%.
A rise in unemployment is one of the few developments that could get the Federal Reserve to start thinking of easing policy again, with investors having largely given up on a cut this month or next.
A move in September is seen at around a 75% chance, though Fed officials have stopped well short of endorsing such pricing. There are at least 11 Fed speakers on the diary for this week, led by Fed Chair Jerome Powell later on Monday.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller did say on Sunday that cuts remain possible later this year as he saw downside risks to economic activity and employment and upside risks to inflation from the tariffs.
A softer jobs report would be a relief for the Treasury market, where 30-year yields continue to flirt with the 5% barrier as investors demand a higher premium to offset the ever-expanding supply of debt.
The Senate this week will start considering a tax-and-spending bill that will add an estimated $3.8 trillion to the federal government's $36.2 trillion in debt.
Across the Atlantic, the European Central Bank is considered almost certain to cut its rates by a quarter point to 2.0% on Thursday, while markets will be sensitive to guidance on the chance of another move as early as July.
The Bank of Canada meets Wednesday and markets imply a 76% chance it will hold rates at 2.75%, while sounding dovish on the future given the tariff-fuelled risk of recession there.
Widening rate spreads have so far offered only limited support to the U.S. dollar.
"The greenback remains near the lower end of its post-2022 range and considerably weaker than interest rate differentials would imply," noted Jonas Goltermann, deputy chief markets economist at Capital Economics.
"Sentiment around the greenback remains negative and it continues to look vulnerable to further bad news on the fiscal and trade policy fronts."
On Monday, the dollar had dipped 0.2% on the yen to 143.79 , while the euro edged up a fraction to $1.1353 .
The greenback also slipped 0.1% on the Canadian dollar to 1.3727 , getting no tailwind from Trump's threat of 50% tariffs on Canadian steel exports.
In commodity markets, gold edged up 0.6% to $3,310 an ounce , having lost 1.9% last week.
Oil prices bounced after OPEC+ decided to increase output in July by the same amount as it did in each of the prior two months, a relief to some who had feared an even bigger increase.
Brent rose $1.07 to $63.85 a barrel, while U.S. crude gained $1.18 to $61.95 per barrel.
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The Guardian
17 minutes ago
- The Guardian
Does Queensland have a crocodile problem or a people problem?
'We from the country have had enough.' So ends the submission of Kelvin Douglas John Bunyan to a Queensland parliamentary committee considering legislation that would allow for safari style hunting and the harvesting of eggs of the most fearsome apex predator of the tropical north: the saltwater crocodile. The 177 submissions lodged in response to Katter's Australian party's Crocodile Control and Conservation bill 2025 are penned by the kind of rich and colourful cast for which the far north is renowned. And, like the country itself, they are submissions full of surprise and contradiction. There is the bowhunter, spearfisher, ex-professional fighter and diesel trucks driver who writes with passion and erudition that the proposed crocodile cull is 'incredibly naive', unscientific and dangerous – and then there is the general practitioner and standup paddle boarder who believes crocodiles need to be 'kept in their place' so that young people can get off their phones and back into the fresh waterways. There is the Carpentaria Land Council Aboriginal Corporation, which supports the bill 'overall' – though with the important caveats that Indigenous people play a more integral role in croc management and that the species' conservation be given greater emphasis. Then there is the Kunggandji Cultural Custodian to whom Kunjurra Kunggandji – or the saltwater crocodile in his language – is a totem, a spiritual guide, an ancestor and for whom the killing of this sacred animal is the killing of kin. Sign up: AU Breaking News email There are the tour guides who say they would be embarrassed to tell international visitors they lived in a state that slaughtered wild crocs and that removing salties would hurt their businesses. Then the charter boat operators and fishing guides who fear for their industries should the bill not pass. There is the houseboat resident who says she nearly lost her husband to a lunging croc a week after it took her dog. And the Daintree forest dwellers who say their swampy retreat is healthier with crocodiles in it. There is Bunyan, born in 1961, who grew up on a farm in the Innisfail region and who writes – almost entirely unburdened by punctuation – with echoes of the wild poetry of the Jerilderie Letter, that handwritten manifesto of the legendary bushranger Ned Kelly. 'At those times there was no crocodiles however eventually after 10 or so years we suspected that they're crocodiles and sure enough on New Year's Day in about 1983 several young children on the side of the river we're going down for a swim when a crocodile took their pet dog my father warned me that at some point that would be the case making one of the children but fortunately Oh well unfortunately for the dog he was the victim in that case … ' And there is the University of Queensland's crocodile expert, Prof Craig E Franklin. A global authority on Crocodylus porosus, Franklin is the scientific lead for the world's largest and longest active tracking program of crocodiles, which is done in collaboration with Australia Zoo on the saltwater crocs of far north Queensland. Franklin recommended the bill be rejected outright, describing it as 'foolish, misguided and dangerous'. In the end, it was by the likes of Franklin that the parliamentary committee tasked with reading through these submissions – and attending several public hearings as well as travelling through croc country – was swayed when they handed down their recommendations on the crocodile bill in late July. The Health, Environment and Innovation Committee recommended the bill not be passed and was, Franklin says, 'quite damning' of the proposal. The Gold Coast-based Liberal National party chair, Rob Molhoek, began his forward to the report by noting more Australians are 'injured or killed by everyday incidents like accidental falls, choking, drowning or homicide than by crocodiles'. In 2023 one Australian was killed by a crocodile, compared with six people by dogs, while accidental falling accounted for 4,105 deaths, choking 1,427 and drowning 204, he wrote. Molhoek cited Queensland Parks and Wildlife Service's croc expert, Simon Booth, who argued that even if crocodiles could be removed from the state's waterways, the stealthy ambush predators would still migrate in from afar. And the International Union on the Conservation of Nature's Crocodile Committee co-chair Charlie Manolis, who continued, with more than a hint of sarcasm, that making waterways safe in Queensland was 'simple'. 'You have to make crocodiles extinct entirely – remove every single one of them – and then put a fence up between the Northern Territory and Queensland, to stop them swimming across, put up another fence between Papua New Guinea and us to stop them coming down, and then you will be able to guarantee safety,' Manolis wrote. Finally, Molhoek signed off with a nod to those who said that crocodile attacks were often a result of people engaging in risky behaviour – and that the key to avoiding human fatalities was to encourage 'crocwise' behaviour. 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Knuth rejects the evidence submitted by scientists which showed crocodile numbers were stable or still gradually recovering from being hunted to near local extinction. 'Just tell 'em to come swim across the North Johnstone River or the Tully,' he says. 'That's the true science of whether there is an explosion in croc numbers or it's an illusion'. The LNP defector from Tully laments that there were no north Queenslanders on the parliamentary committee, and that they 'wouldn't have a clue of the reality of what's going on here in the north'. Brisbane-based Franklin bristles at that criticism, which he says is frequently directed at him. 'I've spent well and truly more than a year of my life living under canvas in north Queensland catching crocodiles – and I do that safely,' he says. 'It is easy to live alongside crocodiles. It is just following common sense and some simple rules'. 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The Sun
17 minutes ago
- The Sun
Probe launched into Trump prosecutor Jack Smith for ‘illegal political activity' after Don charged 41 times
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Daily Mail
17 minutes ago
- Daily Mail
Russia's terrifying 'DEAD HAND' threat as spiraling nuclear rhetoric leaves world on the brink
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