Latest news with #UnitedTorahJudaism
Yahoo
3 days ago
- Politics
- Yahoo
Netanyahu is in a tight spot after UTJ exits the gov't - what happens next?
The move by the six United Torah Judaism (UTJ) party members leaves Netanyahu's nationalist-religious government extremely vulnerable, with just a one-seat majority in the Knesset. One of Israel's ultra-Orthodox Jewish parties has quit Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's coalition in a long-running dispute over a new military conscription bill. The move by the six United Torah Judaism (UTJ) party members leaves Netanyahu's nationalist-religious government extremely vulnerable, with just a one-seat majority in the Knesset. Has Netanyahu's government collapsed? No. But it might. UTJ is allied with ultra-Orthodox coalition member Shas, which has traditionally maintained a close alignment with UTJ. If Shas quits, Netanyahu will lose his majority, and his government will struggle to function. However, UTJ's withdrawal from the coalition will only take effect 48 hours after submission of its ministers' resignation letters, which gives the prime minister some time to seek a compromise. Even if that fails, Knesset goes on summer recess at the end of July, giving Netanyahu around three months to try and resolve the crisis. A lot can happen in that time, and Netanyahu has shown extraordinary political survival skills over the years. How do Israeli governments work? Governments rarely complete a full four-year term in Israel. No single party has ever won an outright majority in an election, so governments are formed by a coalition of parties. Prime ministers have often had to contend with sectarian demands and ideological clashes within their coalitions. When divisions emerge, coalitions can quickly unravel and governments fall. Will there be an early election? Possibly. But not for several months. There are a few political paths that would lead to the ballot being brought forward. They include the Knesset voting to dissolve itself and the government failing to pass an annual budget. In no scenario would an election be immediate. Some political analysts have predicted that a ballot will likely be brought forward from the end of 2026 to early next year. How do elections work? Israel's elections are parliamentary. The 120 Knesset seats are allocated by proportional representation to national party lists, which may secure seats after passing a threshold of 3.25% of the vote. Since 2019, Israel has held five national elections. The last one, which gave Netanyahu a decisive victory, was in November 2022. Successive polls of voter intentions have shown his coalition would lose an election, were it to be held today. Coalition shape Although Netanyahu's coalition has fluctuated over the past two and a half years, with political shifts, finding replacements for UTJ to join the ranks of his government, which is comprised of right-wing and religious Jewish parties, would be extremely difficult. The opposition includes centrist, left-wing, right-wing, liberal, and conservative factions. Coalition composition Total Knesset seats: 120 Number of factions: 13 Total coalition seats: 61 Seats held by Netanyahu's Likud party: 32 Seats held by ultra-Orthodox party Shas: 11 Seats held by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich's Religious Zionism party: 7 Seats held by National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir's Jewish Power party: 6 Seats held by National Right party: 4 Seats held by the Noam party: 1 Will political turmoil affect the war in Gaza? This is still unclear. US-backed ceasefire talks are underway in Qatar. Israelis have become increasingly weary of the war against Hamas in Gaza, and surveys show popular support for ending it with a deal that will bring back remaining hostages held by the Palestinian terrorist group. Netanyahu still has enough support within his government to secure a ceasefire. However, the two far-right parties in Netanyahu's coalition—Otzma Yehudit and Religious Zionism—are unlikely to support ending the war entirely anytime soon. Solve the daily Crossword
Yahoo
3 days ago
- Politics
- Yahoo
Does UTJ's departure mean that Israel is heading to an election?
The short answer is probably yes, but not immediately. United Torah Judaism's seven MKs officially left the coalition on Monday, resulting in the size of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's coalition dropping from 68 to 61 seats. However, this does not take into account that Noam MK Avi Maoz left the coalition in March and has since operated independently. For all intents and purposes, therefore, Netanyahu has officially lost his majority in the Knesset for the first time since taking office in late 2022. If Shas's Torah Council orders the party's 11 MKs to leave the coalition as well, it will drop below 50, and below the current 52-member opposition. Does this mean Israel is heading to an election? The short answer is probably yes, but not immediately. Without a majority, the prime minister will not be able to pass any measure that requires legislation or approval in the Knesset. The reality of the past two months, however, has been that despite an ongoing haredi boycott of plenum voting, the opposition has supported or abstained from crucial votes, mostly having to do with security, and therefore it is unlikely that an urgent parliamentary matter will force Netanyahu to call an election. The only crucial parliamentary vote that can topple the coalition is the annual state budget, but this must only pass by the end of March in a given budget year. This means that even if the coalition does not have the necessary votes to pass the 2026 budget, it could still stay afloat until March 31. As long as the prime minister does not announce an election, the other main tool to topple the coalition is to pass a law dispersing the Knesset. Two MKs from UTJ supported a preliminary vote on such a law on June 12, a day before Israel's attack against Iran, but the government still won the vote. Still, neither haredi party has officially announced it would support such a bill. Even if one or both of the haredi parties were to support such a bill, the most that could happen is that it would pass a preliminary vote prior to the Knesset's three-month recess, which begins on July 27. The legislation will stall during the recess; therefore, realistically, it will only pass in late October or November. In that scenario, an election will be set for late January or February. Much can happen until then, such as Netanyahu reaching a new compromise with the haredi parties. The prime minister also has an incentive to draw out the government's tenure, even with a severely depleted coalition. Despite the recent successes in Iran, the prime minister's poll numbers still predict a victory for his main contender, Naftali Bennett. Netanyahu can attempt to take advantage of the Knesset recess to reach a hostage deal and perhaps even a peace agreement with another Arab or Muslim country. These would be the type of successes he could flaunt alongside the success against Iran in his upcoming election campaign, rather than an election coming in the wake of his failed attempt to pass a highly unpopular law to exempt over half of eligible haredi men from IDF service, and his failure so far to bring back the remaining hostages. Domino effect leading to early election? Having said this, a decision by Shas to depart the government would be a very serious blow to Netanyahu's ability to govern. This could create a domino effect that could lead the prime minister himself to call an early election. The date to focus on is July 27. If the prime minister has not announced an election by then, he will likely wait out the summer and even try to keep his coalition afloat until the end of March. If, however, Shas quits the government, and especially if the haredi parties announce their wish to head to an election, Israel could very well be on its way to an election, which would likely be held just after the fall holidays. The last factor to take into account is Netanyahu's far Right partners, National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, both of whom have threatened to quit the government over a possible hostage deal due to what they have argued are unacceptable concessions to Hamas. Ben-Gvir's departure in January and return to the government in March showed that departing the government was not irreversible. However, with the haredim out, the departure of either party will likely tip the scale irreversibly. Ironically, relieved from the pressure of his far Right partners, Netanyahu could, precisely during his election campaign, cut the deal he laid out already in May 2024, a permanent ceasefire with Hamas in exchange for the release of all hostages. Solve the daily Crossword
Yahoo
3 days ago
- Politics
- Yahoo
Israel's post-holiday politics: Will Netanyahu take a political hit to keep coalition intact?
NATIONAL AFFAIRS: With Shas out of the government, Netanyahu faces a decision between taking a hit to maintain the coalition or preparing for the upcoming elections. It's only mid-July, Rosh Hashanah is more than two months ahead, yet that ubiquitous phrase around the holiday season 'aharei hahagim' (after the holidays) is already on many people's lips, at least of those carefully watching or involved in this country's politics. In the general context, 'aharei hahagim' means 'we'll get to it after the holidays,' meaning that doctor's appointments, serious home repairs, even trips abroad will be put off until after Rosh Hashanah, Yom Kippur, and Sukkot. This year, that means October 15 – the day after Simchat Torah. However, in the current political context, 'aharei hahagim' refers to the date when the Knesset will reconvene for its winter session (October 19), following a long hiatus that will begin a week from Sunday. It is in the interim, from now until aharei hahagim, that the country will have to wait before finding out whether this government – a government leading it in war and hostage negotiations, in striking Iran and bombing in Syria – will stand or fall. As haredi factions leave government, coalition holds on Why? Because although the two haredi parties, United Torah Judaism and Shas, announced this week they were leaving the government – on paper leaving it without a Knesset majority – it doesn't have that much practical effect, because the Knesset is going on an extended summer break during which it will not be passing any laws needing a Knesset majority. And one such law that it will be unable to pass during these three months is a law to dissolve itself. Not that such a vote would succeed right now anyway. Because even as Shas followed United Torah Judaism's lead and declared on Wednesday it was leaving the government, it did so with a major caveat: 'We are leaving the government,' meaning relinquishing ministerial and deputy ministerial positions, 'but we are not quitting the coalition,' meaning they won't vote with the opposition to bring the government down. This also ensures that Shas leader Arye Deri will continue to participate in the security cabinet deliberations, where the country's life-and-death decisions are made. As religious Services Minister Michael Malkieli explained, Shas's move stems from the haredi conscription issue – or, rather, the failure to pass legislation exempting haredi yeshiva students from military service. The government, he said, is 'persecuting Torah scholars.' At the same time, he insisted the party would not 'cooperate with the Left' to bring it down. Explaining Shas's decision to exit government, but not bring it down To some, this maneuver looks inherently contradictory. If you leave the government, aren't you, by definition, part of the opposition? But to those familiar with Shas's voter base – and the Council of Torah Sages that sets its direction – the logic is politically sound. Many of Shas's voters are indeed haredim, but many are also ardently politically right-wing. As such, they don't want to see this right-wing government and Netanyahu replaced by Yesh Atid's Yair Lapid, with Yair Golan's Democrats Party a senior coalition partner holding key ministerial posts. So they've constructed the ultimate mechanism enabling the party to have its cake and eat it, too. What this means is that Shas is making an ideological statement of opposition to the conscription of yeshiva students – in this way remaining true to the hardline stance on the matter taken by the leading Ashkenazi rabbis and seconded by its own Torah authorities – while not alienating its right-wing voter base, which does serve in the army and is deeply committed to national security. Shas is trying to dance at two weddings – staying in the haredi camp by pledging allegiance to army exemptions for haredim, but dodging the political fallout. What is not clear, however, is whether this balancing act is sustainable over time. Shas is trying to avoid a big political price for its decisions The first signs are not encouraging for the party, which currently has 11 Knesset seats. According to a Channel 12 poll on Wednesday evening, before Shas formally quit the government but after it became clear where things were heading, its support dropped to eight seats. That's a 20% slide in less than two months, compared to a similar poll conducted by the same pollster, Manu Geva, in late May. So if Shas is trying to have it both ways, it is far from certain that it will succeed. And, of course, there are those working hard to ensure that it doesn't. Enter Likud MK Tally Gotliv, one of the most outspoken and combative voices in the party. Sensing a golden opportunity to peel off disillusioned Shas voters – particularly the non-haredi ones – Gotliv went on the attack. Writing on X, she accused Deri of 'spitting in the face of Shas voters' by leaving the government without bringing it down. 'Shas voters are right-wingers,' she wrote, 'connected to the heritage of Israel in the Land of Israel, the inheritance of our forefathers.' She accused Deri of blindly obeying the rabbis of the Gur Hassidic sect, who were the first to instruct their political representatives in UTJ to exit the government over the draft issue. 'Supporters of Shas – right-wingers, many of whom serve in the army – are horrified by this weakening of the government's resilience in wartime,' she continued. 'Do not vote for Shas! Do not believe Arye Deri.' If Gotliv's post sounds like a salvo in an election campaign, that's because, well, it is. While everyone is focusing on whether the haredi draft issue will bring down the government and lead to new elections, consider the following: new elections must be held by October 27, 2026. If everything aligns perfectly for the opposition – and it manages to pass a bill to dissolve the Knesset during its first week back after the holidays, starting October 19 – then the earliest possible election date would be in late January 2026. Under the law, elections must be held three to five months after the Knesset is dissolved. That's just 10 months earlier than the deadline for holding elections anyway. Which raises a strategic question: With the clock running out on the government in any case, when exactly does it make the most political sense to pull the plug? Looking at past precedent, it's likely that one of the coalition parties will eventually vote to dissolve the government over a matter of ideology. Shas might ultimately leave the coalition – and not only the government – over the haredi draft. The Religious Zionist Party, or Otzma Yehudit, might walk over Gaza. That way, they can tell voters they went to the election and brought down the government over a matter of principle, not politics. In the grand scheme of things, it doesn't make that much difference now whether the elections are held at the end of January, March, or October 2026. The elections are already in the air, the campaigning has begun, and the country's politicians are all jostling for position and making their decisions knowing that the next elections are not that far off. Israel's sharpest political operator is posturing for the next elections And among those posturing is the sharpest political operator in the land: Netanyahu. Much of what Netanyahu does now must be viewed through the lens of posturing for the next elections. This is particularly true regarding his approach to the entire haredi draft issue. Promoting legislation to enshrine draft exemptions for haredim has been essential to keeping his coalition intact. Indeed, one of the most remarkable aspects of recent Israeli history is how Netanyahu managed to remain in power after the catastrophic events of October 7, and despite the widespread public fury and outrage that followed. The way he was able to do so was to keep his coalition intact, and one of the key tools he used to do that was the promise of a draft exemption law for the haredi parties. But as his government enters what could be its final stretch, Netanyahu must decide whether he wants to face voters having just passed a highly controversial conscription bill – one that pleases Shas and United Torah Judaism, but runs counter to the views of a majority of Likud voters, who polls show oppose blanket exemptions for haredim and support universal Jewish military service. And the answer to that question will, unlike so much else, not have to wait until after the holidays. Rather, this will be decided even during the Knesset's summer vacation. The unusual arrangement Shas has crafted – outside the government but still part of the coalition – gives the party time to see what Netanyahu does next. Will he come up with a compromise on the draft issue that satisfies Shas and UTJ by the time the Knesset returns on October 19? If he does, it will suggest Netanyahu is still trying to squeeze a few more months out of this coalition. But if he doesn't – if he doesn't work his political magic to hammer out some kind of deal that satisfies the haredi parties – then it's a sure sign that he realizes it will be a severe liability to go to the electorate with this type of legislation registered under his name. Solve the daily Crossword
Yahoo
5 days ago
- Politics
- Yahoo
Israeli gov't no longer has mandate to avoid Oct. 7 state probe, bereaved parents say
'A government that has lost its majority has no mandate to erase the October 7 massacre and bury the truth,' the families concluded. A group of over 1,500 families of victims of the October 7 Hamas massacre, called the 'October Council,' demanded in a statement on Thursday that the government form a State Commission of Inquiry now that it has lost its majority. 'Following the withdrawal of Shas and United Torah Judaism, the Israeli government is now effectively operating as a minority government—without a majority in the Knesset and without public or moral mandate to continue blocking the establishment of a State Commission of Inquiry into the most horrific disaster in the country's history,' the families wrote. 'The October Council, which brings together over 1,500 bereaved families, families of hostages, survivors of captivity, and massacre survivors, emphasizes that a government without a majority also lacks legitimacy to bury the truth.' 'It is inconceivable that a government which has lost its majority continues to promote alternative legislation or internal committees, when 83% of the public, across all sectors and political views, demands the immediate establishment of a State Commission of Inquiry. The current government is incapable of legislating, yet continues to obstruct investigation. In whose name? For what purpose?' Calls for Shas and UTJ to help establish a probe into the events of October 7 'We hereby call on the leaders of Shas and United Torah Judaism, MK Aryeh Deri and MK Moshe Gafni, to join the resounding call of the bereaved families and the overwhelming majority of the Israeli public to establish a state commission of inquiry into October 7,' the families wrote. 'Immediately after the Meron disaster [in April 2021], MK Gafni declared, 'A State Commission of Inquiry must be established to investigate the disaster and prevent its recurrence.' Now, in the face of a far more painful and extensive failure, we ask—where is that same commitment?' The families wrote. The Meron Committee found Netanyahu among those who were personally responsible for the disaster, but refrained from issuing any recommendations due to his position as prime minister. 'A government that has lost its majority has no mandate to erase the October 7 massacre and bury the truth,' the families concluded. A State Commission of Inquiry is the most powerful probe in Israel's legal system, and the only type of probe that operates completely independently of the political echelon. Its members are appointed by the Chief Justice, and it has the power to subpoena witnesses and make personal, punitive recommendations regarding individuals. The other types of probes are government-appointed and parliament-appointed inquiry committees. The government, led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, has cited a lack of public trust in the High Court as a justification for an alternative committee, whose members will be appointed jointly by the coalition and opposition. However, polls have consistently shown a significant majority of Israelis preferring a State Commission of Inquiry over any other form of inquiry. Solve the daily Crossword
New Indian Express
5 days ago
- Politics
- New Indian Express
Israel: Netanyahu considering early election but can he convince people he's winning the war?
One of Israel's ultra-Orthodox Jewish parties, Shas, has announced it will resign from prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government. The party said its decision was made due to the government's failure to pass a bill exempting ultra-Orthodox students from military service. Its exit increases the political pressure on Netanyahu. Days earlier, six members of another ultra-Orthodox coalition partner, the United Torah Judaism party, also quit the government citing the same concerns. The moves leave Netanyahu with a minority in parliament, which will make it difficult for his government to function. Opposition leader Yair Lapid says the government now 'has no authority', and has called for a new round of elections. But even before these developments, Netanyahu was reportedly considering calling an early election in a bid to remain in power despite his unpopularity. To win another term he would, in my view, have to spin a narrative of victory on three fronts: securing the release of the hostages, defeating Hamas and delivering regional security. It is a tall order. In his visit to Washington in early July, Netanyahu emphasised his pursuit of a ceasefire in Gaza that facilitates the return of the remaining hostages held by Hamas. Israelis have grown increasingly weary of the war, with recent surveys showing popular support for ending it if this brings back those still held captive. A ceasefire that sees hostages released would probably help Netanyahu generate support during an election campaign.
