Netanyahu is in a tight spot after UTJ exits the gov't - what happens next?

Yahoo

7 days ago

The move by the six United Torah Judaism (UTJ) party members leaves Netanyahu's nationalist-religious government extremely vulnerable, with just a one-seat majority in the Knesset.
One of Israel's ultra-Orthodox Jewish parties has quit Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's coalition in a long-running dispute over a new military conscription bill.
The move by the six United Torah Judaism (UTJ) party members leaves Netanyahu's nationalist-religious government extremely vulnerable, with just a one-seat majority in the Knesset.
Has Netanyahu's government collapsed?
No. But it might. UTJ is allied with ultra-Orthodox coalition member Shas, which has traditionally maintained a close alignment with UTJ. If Shas quits, Netanyahu will lose his majority, and his government will struggle to function.
However, UTJ's withdrawal from the coalition will only take effect 48 hours after submission of its ministers' resignation letters, which gives the prime minister some time to seek a compromise.
Even if that fails, Knesset goes on summer recess at the end of July, giving Netanyahu around three months to try and resolve the crisis. A lot can happen in that time, and Netanyahu has shown extraordinary political survival skills over the years.
How do Israeli governments work?
Governments rarely complete a full four-year term in Israel. No single party has ever won an outright majority in an election, so governments are formed by a coalition of parties.
Prime ministers have often had to contend with sectarian demands and ideological clashes within their coalitions. When divisions emerge, coalitions can quickly unravel and governments fall.
Will there be an early election?
Possibly. But not for several months. There are a few political paths that would lead to the ballot being brought forward. They include the Knesset voting to dissolve itself and the government failing to pass an annual budget.
In no scenario would an election be immediate. Some political analysts have predicted that a ballot will likely be brought forward from the end of 2026 to early next year.
How do elections work?
Israel's elections are parliamentary. The 120 Knesset seats are allocated by proportional representation to national party lists, which may secure seats after passing a threshold of 3.25% of the vote.
Since 2019, Israel has held five national elections. The last one, which gave Netanyahu a decisive victory, was in November 2022. Successive polls of voter intentions have shown his coalition would lose an election, were it to be held today.
Coalition shape
Although Netanyahu's coalition has fluctuated over the past two and a half years, with political shifts, finding replacements for UTJ to join the ranks of his government, which is comprised of right-wing and religious Jewish parties, would be extremely difficult.
The opposition includes centrist, left-wing, right-wing, liberal, and conservative factions.
Coalition composition
Total Knesset seats: 120
Number of factions: 13
Total coalition seats: 61
Seats held by Netanyahu's Likud party: 32
Seats held by ultra-Orthodox party Shas: 11
Seats held by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich's Religious Zionism party: 7
Seats held by National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir's Jewish Power party: 6
Seats held by National Right party: 4
Seats held by the Noam party: 1
Will political turmoil affect the war in Gaza?
This is still unclear. US-backed ceasefire talks are underway in Qatar. Israelis have become increasingly weary of the war against Hamas in Gaza, and surveys show popular support for ending it with a deal that will bring back remaining hostages held by the Palestinian terrorist group.
Netanyahu still has enough support within his government to secure a ceasefire. However, the two far-right parties in Netanyahu's coalition—Otzma Yehudit and Religious Zionism—are unlikely to support ending the war entirely anytime soon.
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