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China breaks ground on $170 billion dam near Arunachal—why India is concerned, and what it plans to do
China breaks ground on $170 billion dam near Arunachal—why India is concerned, and what it plans to do

Indian Express

time4 days ago

  • Business
  • Indian Express

China breaks ground on $170 billion dam near Arunachal—why India is concerned, and what it plans to do

China's official announcement of the start of construction on a massive hydropower project on the Yarlung Zangbo – just before the river bends into Arunachal Pradesh as the Brahmaputra – marks a pivotal moment for both India's strategic interests and China's economic goals. With a planned investment of nearly $170 billion, it is set to be China's largest infrastructure project since the Three Gorges Dam, and a major stimulus for the domestic economy. But across the border in Arunachal Pradesh, the project has raised alarm over potential downstream impacts, with fears of the Siang region being vulnerable to a 'water bomb'. India, in response, has proposed a large storage project to counter the Chinese dam – but progress has been slow. The Chinese Premier Li Qiang on July 19 announced the launch of construction and the formation of a new entity – China Yajiang Group Co Ltd – to build and operate the hydropower project, according to state-run Xinhua. The project will comprise five cascade hydropower stations spread across a 50-kilometre stretch of the river that drops 2,000 metres, offering vast hydropower potential. With a planned capacity of 60 GW, it will be roughly three times the size of the Three Gorges Dam. While cascade projects typically include storage to regulate flow between stations, the extent of planned storage has not been revealed. Chinese markets responded positively to the announcement on Monday, with shares of major construction and equipment firms surging. Experts see the project as a major stimulus for the domestic economy. While the storage capacity of the Chinese project is not known – a key factor in assessing China's ability to regulate water flow into India – concerns are mounting in Arunachal Pradesh. Earlier this month, Chief Minister Pema Khandu warned that the dam is the biggest issue facing India, second only to the 'military threat', and could be used as a 'water bomb'. 'Suppose the dam is built and they suddenly release water, our entire Siang belt would be destroyed. In particular, the Adi tribe and similar groups… would see all their property, land, and especially human life, suffer devastating effects,' Khandu told PTI on July 9. While around 30 per cent of the Brahmaputra's waters originate in China, the majority comes from rainfall within India's catchment areas. As a result, the Chinese dam's immediate impact is expected to be felt most in Arunachal Pradesh – particularly in the Siang region. In addition to flooding concerns, the Chinese dam could also disrupt water flow to proposed downstream hydro projects. The Northeast holds nearly half of India's 133 GW hydropower potential, over 80 per cent of which remains untapped. Of the 60 GW estimated potential, about 50 GW lies in Arunachal Pradesh alone. To counter China's upstream development, India has proposed the 11.2 GW Upper Siang Multipurpose Project – a massive storage-based dam in the Siang district. The project is expected to act as a strategic buffer to regulate water flow and protect downstream populations and infrastructure. However, progress has been slow, The Indian Express had earlier reported. Three years after the Ministry of Jal Shakti tasked NHPC Ltd with preparing a pre-feasibility report, vital investigations remain stalled due to local opposition. In response to a question on delays at an Idea Exchange earlier this month, Union Jal Shakti Minister CR Patil said, 'China can do whatever it wants, we are fully prepared. PM Modi is quite serious about it. Work will start.' An NHPC official told The Indian Express in June that the project can act as 'a regulating scheme to mitigate adverse impact of both acts of water diversion and artificial floods by the upstream Chinese development'. Once complete, the Upper Siang project would be India's largest hydropower station.

China's $170 bn dam on Brahmaputra: Should India worry?
China's $170 bn dam on Brahmaputra: Should India worry?

Time of India

time4 days ago

  • Business
  • Time of India

China's $170 bn dam on Brahmaputra: Should India worry?

Three Gorges Dam in China on Yangtze river is the biggest in the world. Now China has started building an even bigger dam. As per Xinhua news agency, China's Premier Li Qiang has announced that construction has begun on the dam on Yarlung Zangbo — the Tibetan name for the Brahmaputra river — on the eastern rim of the Tibetan Plateau near the Indian border, at an estimated cost of at least $170 billion. It will have the capacity to produce 300 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity annually, equal to the amount of electricity consumed by Britain last year. It's expected to be completed in the 2030s. While India and Bangladesh have already raised concerns about its possible impact on the millions of people downstream, China has said the dam will help meet power demand in Tibet and the rest of China without having a major effect on downstream water supplies. Explore courses from Top Institutes in Select a Course Category Operations Management CXO others Data Analytics healthcare Data Science MCA Others Leadership Public Policy Digital Marketing Data Science MBA PGDM Technology Design Thinking Management Degree Artificial Intelligence Healthcare Product Management Cybersecurity Project Management Skills you'll gain: Quality Management & Lean Six Sigma Analytical Tools Supply Chain Management & Strategies Service Operations Management Duration: 10 Months IIM Lucknow IIML Executive Programme in Strategic Operations Management & Supply Chain Analytics Starts on Jan 27, 2024 Get Details China's " water bomb " aimed at India? India has raised concerns over the dam, as it not only empowers China to control the river's water flow but also poses the risk of flooding border areas by releasing large volumes of water during potential hostilities due to its sheer size and scale, news agency PTI had reported. India is also constructing its own dam on the Siang River, as Brahmaputra is called in Arunachal Pradesh , the Upper Siang Multipurpose Project. In March, Arunachal Pradesh Deputy Chief Minister Chowna Mein said that if China builds the massive dam over Yarlung Tsangpo river and diverts its water, it will dry up the Siang river and its distributaries affecting the aquatic life of the river and the large population in the plains of Assam and Bangladesh which depends on Brahmaputra river for the irrigation of their agricultural fields. On the other hand, in case, if any conflict arises between the two nations in future, it may release a large volume of water from the dam, which would cause unpredicted flooding in the downstream areas in Arunachal Pradesh and Assam causing loss of lives and properties. In April, BJP MP from Arunachal East, Tapir Gao, described China's planned dam on the Yarlung Tsangpo as a "water bomb" that China could unleash against India and other downstream nations. "We have two options — raise our voice, though Xi Jinping will not listen; or build an alternative large dam to counter the Chinese water bomb," Gao said. Live Events "China isn't merely building dams; it's creating 'water bombs'. The devastation such actions can cause was evident in 2000 when floods triggered by a massive water release washed away nearly all the bridges on the Siang river, as the Yarlung Tsangpo is called in Arunachal Pradesh. Pasighat airport was submerged under 7 feet of water at the time," Gao said. Gao backed a proposal to build a dam on the Siang river in Arunachal Pradesh to mitigate downstream disasters. "Experts informed me the dam could have a 25-metre buffer level extending up to 15km, capable of retaining substantial water during sudden releases and averting disaster. Public consultations are ongoing regarding the proposed dam," he said. However, Chinese foreign ministry's spokesperson Guo Jiakun said in January that the dam would, to some extent, contribute to downstream disaster prevention, mitigation, and climate change response. This was in response to a question about India's concerns regarding the dam, which were discussed during talks between Indian officials and the visiting then US national security advisor, Jake Sullivan. Should India worry? Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma on Monday tried to alleviate fears on China's move to construct the world's largest dam on Brahmaputra and said he does not foresee any immediate cause of worry as the river gets most of its waters from Bhutan and Arunachal Pradesh. Speaking to reporters, Sarma said the exact impact of the massive dam, the construction of which began last week, is not properly known as different theories are being floated, and hoped that the Centre must be in touch with China on the matter. "First -- if Brahmaputra's flow is disturbed by China, then there may be less water and consequently biodiversity will be affected. But there is also a counter view that if less water comes, it will also act as a flood cushioning. So, I don't know which one is correct," he added. Sarma said that the Centre is a better judge on this topic and it will take a call on this. Unlike the Indus system, where India holds the upstream advantage and Pakistan remains critically dependent on downstream flows, the Brahmaputra dynamic is less binary. As per a TOI article published in July, China commands an upstream position but its leverage is not absolute. Brahmaputra gains most of its volume only after it enters India, fed by torrential tributaries like Lohit, Dibang, and many others draining the eastern Himalayas. Yarlung spans 1,625 km across the Tibetan plateau and seems, at first glance, a river shaped upstream. Only, as it plunges through the Siang gorge into Arunachal and transforms into Brahmaputra, its character changes dramatically. Contrary to the common assumption that upstream means control, Tibet contributes only about 14% of the river's total annual flow. A staggering 86% is generated within India — driven largely by intense monsoon rains and a network of torrential tributaries in Arunachal and Assam. But the real threat is not of deprivation. It is of sudden inundation. If China releases large volumes of water during the flood season, it is India's northeast, particularly Arunachal and Assam, that stands most exposed, as per the TOI article. While China cannot easily weaponise the river by cutting off its flow, the risk will stem from sudden surges — be it from upstream dam releases, engineering misjudgements, or the erratic extremes of a warming climate. For Arunachal and Assam, already battered by recurrent monsoon floods, such shocks could prove devastating. China doesn't have a pact with any of the lower riparians. India and China did sign an MoU in 2013 but Indian officials said China has not always been open about sharing hydrological data.

China constructing world's largest dam on Brahmaputra could reduce flooding in Assam every year: CM Himanta Biswa Sarma
China constructing world's largest dam on Brahmaputra could reduce flooding in Assam every year: CM Himanta Biswa Sarma

Time of India

time4 days ago

  • Politics
  • Time of India

China constructing world's largest dam on Brahmaputra could reduce flooding in Assam every year: CM Himanta Biswa Sarma

With China commencing the construction of world's largest dam on river Brahmaputra , Assam chief minister Himanta Biswa Sarma there are two scientific aspects to the dam, one is reducing the amount of flooding that affects Assam every year. During an inauguration ceremony in Guwahati, Sarma said that there are two types of "views", one which if China builds a dam the biodiversity may be affected however there is another view "if less water comes it will also act as a flood protection." Explore courses from Top Institutes in Select a Course Category Technology Design Thinking Artificial Intelligence Cybersecurity others Healthcare MCA Product Management Degree Data Analytics Operations Management CXO Digital Marketing Finance Leadership Project Management Data Science healthcare Management Data Science Others Public Policy MBA PGDM Skills you'll gain: Duration: 12 Weeks MIT xPRO CERT-MIT XPRO Building AI Prod India Starts on undefined Get Details Sarma said that scientifically," We are not pretty sure which is correct. So, the Government of India will act accordingly." Sarma said 'The Brahmaputra receives most of its water from Bhutan, Arunachal Pradesh , and rainfall in Assam itself. Scientifically, the river is largely fed by indigenous sources.' Admitting that Chinese activities upstream could potentially affect the river's biodiversity, the Chief Minister also noted a differing perspective — that reduced water flow might help cushion the impact of floods, a frequent problem in Assam. Live Events He said the Centre is either already in talks with China or will soon initiate dialogue regarding the dam issue. 'Immediately, I am not worried,' Sarma added. 'Brahmaputra is a mighty river and not dependent on a single source.' Tsangpo River is known as Siang in Arunachal Pradesh and Brahmaputra in Assam and Jamuna in Bangladesh, and it flows through the neighbouring country (Bangladesh) before joining the Bay of Bengal. Recently, the Arunachal Pradesh government expressed concern regarding China's massive $137-billion hydroelectric dam project, which is set to produce 60,000 MW of electricity over the Yarlung Tsangpo River, in the upper reaches of Siang River in China. Arunachal Pradesh Deputy Chief Minister, Chowna Mein had said that the Government of India has proposed the Upper Siang Multipurpose Project, a dam on the Siang River, which has the potential to generate up to 11,000 MW of electricity. While sharing some observations made by experts on the environmental impact in the region of such a massive hydropower project over Tsangpo river, the Deputy Chief Minister said that if the China builds the dam over Yarlung Tsangpo river and diverts its water, it will dry up the Siang river and its distributaries affecting the aquatic life of the river and the large population in the plains of Assam and Bangladesh which depends on Brahmaputra river for the irrigation of their agricultural fields. On the other hand, if any conflict arises between the two nations in future, it may release a large volume of water from the dam, which would cause unpredicted flooding in the downstream areas in Arunachal Pradesh and Assam causing loss of lives and properties. He said that the implications of such a massive project over the Tsangpo river by the Chinese government cannot be ignored and asserted that in both the cases, the downstream people will be affected adversely. Considering all these factors, the Government of India has proposed the Upper Siang Multipurpose Project, a dam on the Siang River. The project is a crucial initiative aimed at mitigating the impacts of downstream flooding in Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, and Bangladesh and other environmental issues. The objective of the project is safety and security of the downstream people and to address other environmental issues, he said. He said that the power generation is secondary and would be a byproduct of the project. He added that during the lean period, the project will act as a storage for the rainwater that falls in the Indian territory preventing the river water in Siang from drying up and in case of the release of large volume of water by China, the dam in the Siang river will act as a deterrent and release the water in a controlled way thereby moderating flood in the downstream. Economic Times WhatsApp channel )

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