Latest news with #WallStreeters
Miami Herald
3 days ago
- Business
- Miami Herald
Legendary Wall Street forecaster Bob Doll is having his best year
Stock market prognosticators are wrong so frequently that observers can rightly wonder if they're making forecasts using the oldest soothsaying methods, drawing pebbles from a pile, dropping hot wax into water, using random dots on paper or, of course, trying to find something magical in numbers. Yet at the start of every year – and again at the midpoint – countless market watchers take their crack at divining the future, mixing educated conjecture, informed hunches and the occasional WAG (wild-ass guess). Related: Veteran analyst drops updated stock market forecast Measured just about any way possible, most of those projections are wrong. CXO Advisory Group analyzed more than 6,500 forecasts-using methodologies ranging from fundamental to technical analysis-made by 68 experts on the U.S. stock market from 2005 through 2012. The investigation found that the accuracy of the forecasts was below 47% on average. That loses to a coin flip. Bloomberg/Getty Images Bad calls tend to be forgotten quickly, as soon as a forecast is updated based on new information. Winning picks are lionized and celebrated, even though the expert may have less staying power than a bull market rally. Wall Streeters sometimes call the tendency to place too much trust in a guru who made the most recent good call the "Elaine Garzarelli Effect." Garzarelli made her reputation as a Lehman Brothers investment strategist by urging clients to get out of the stock market the week before the Black Monday crash in 1987. That call made her one of the most widely quoted strategists on the Street, but it was also the pinnacle of her success. Whether it was brilliant prescience or dumb luck may be argued forever, but she never really duplicated that success. Garzarelli failed to generate much interest when she tried running mutual funds and a call on stocks being 25% undervalued late in 2007 as the global financial crisis was looming, further dimmed her star. While old-timers remember her name – she runs Garzarelli Research and her newsletter suggests that she is currently bullish on small- and mid-caps plus transportation stocks – she is like many one-time stars, known more for one right call than for being right consistently over years or decades. One Wall Street analyst who hasn't shied away from forecasts -- and has a stellar track record -- is Bob Doll, chief executive and investment officer at Crossmark Global Investors. In a 40-plus-year career, Doll has also been the top equity strategist at Blackrock, Nuveen, Merrill Lynch, and Oppenheimer Funds; at each of those stops, Doll-a regular guest on CNBC, Fox Business, and seemingly all financial media outlets-has started each year with 10 forecasts for the coming 12 months. Related: Top analyst sends message on pending ugly earnings miss (plus one big beat) Doll holds his picks up to a grader each year and historically has been right 72% of the time. That's roughly where he stood with his 2024 prognostications. He has said that his best years ever put him at just above 80%. Entering 2025, Doll was expecting "fewer tailwinds, but more tail risks." His picks reflected that, calling for "some bumps in the road, but some good news and probably more volatility," in an interview on Money Life with Chuck Jaffe that aired in January. Now, seven months later, Doll is getting the results he expected. Eight of Doll's 10 picks tend to be tied to the economy and stock market, with one tied to politics and a wildcard. This is what Doll was calling for entering 2025, and how it's turning out: Slower economic growth as unemployment rises past 4.5%. The jury is out on this one, but if unemployment hits Doll's target – it's currently just north of 4% -- mark this as a inflation that stays above Fed's 2% target, causing the central bank to cut rates less than expected. Barring a Fed surprise, this one's on track.10-year Treasury yields primarily between 4% and 5% with wider credit spreads. The 10-year Treasury has spent the year in that range; credit spreads were up around the tariff tantrum but have narrowed since. But if there's an economic slowdown, they will widen and this one will be a fail to achieve the market's consensus 14% expectation entering the year, and yet every sector has up earnings. This forecast is virtually a lock at this point, even with Doll expecting a second-half slowdown that could hurt some volatility rises, with the VIX average approaching 20. The VIX averaged 18.5 in the first quarter and 24.4 in the second, so this call –and the VIX has only been this high in two of the last 13 calendar years – might have seemed like a longshot but now looks like a sure experience a 10% correction and price/earnings ratios contract. The correction went on the books in April, and P/E ratios are down and appear likely to stay that way. This can be marked in the win portfolios beat cap-weighted portfolios and value beats growth. Both of these conditions are true at the moment; the question is whether that will hold up through energy and consumer staples outperform healthcare, technology and industrials. This looked like a sure thing into June, when the margin of outperformance shrank. If financials weaken, it could put this one in jeopardy; barring that, it looks like another win."Congress passes the Trump tax cut extension, reduces regulation, but tariffs and deportation are less than expected." The tariff forecast here is the one thing where Doll looks like he's wrong and won't recover; by year's end, this one is likely to look half-right, making it the one clear blemish that's efforts make progress but fall far short of $2 trillion in annualized savings. Even Doll acknowledges that this was a softball. In a July 22 interview on Money Life with Chuck Jaffe, Doll acknowledged that he now expects to be right at least 70 percent of the time, "but I wish coming into the year we knew which seven we were going to get right. We could make a lot of money. The problem is you don't know which ones you're going to get right and wrong." As for the rest of 2025, Doll gave three quick assessments for where things stand now: "One, the economy is slowing. We just don't know how much it's going to slow. Two, we're beginning to see tariffs show up in the inflation numbers. We don't know how much. And number three we have this tailwind called [artificial intelligence] which is real and is keeping things moving." Further, Doll said he expects the AI play to broaden out. The tailwind called AI has also been particularly strong at the high end of the market. We all were expecting some measure of breadth this year. Are we going to see the breadth show up at some point? Yeah. Well, it obviously occurred in the first quarter, and then it went away in the second quarter. While Doll noted that tariffs seem to be showing up in slight increases in the Consumer Price Index, or CPI, he did not think they would cause a spike in inflation over the rest of the year. "I don't think [the impact of tariffs on inflation] it's going to be horrible," he said. "It's just going to be there. Remember, only 15% approximately of our GDP is from outside the United States. The other 85 is pretty domestic. So it's limited by how much of the economy it really affects. "Now, having said that, remember the Fed saying 'We've got to get inflation down to 2% and they're struggling at 3% and we're not going to get to 2%. And that means all these people who want the Fed to lower rates are going to have to wait a little bit longer." Related: Top analysts say investors are suckers for bad dividend stocks The Arena Media Brands, LLC THESTREET is a registered trademark of TheStreet, Inc.
West Australian
6 days ago
- Business
- West Australian
THE ECONOMIST: The Cryptocurrency big bang is a game-changer that will revolutionise finance
Among the strait-laced denizens of Wall Street, crypto's 'use cases' are often discussed with a smirk. Veterans have seen it all before. Digital assets have come and gone, often in style, sending hype-prone investors in memecoins and NFTs on a ride. Their use as anything other than a tool for speculation and financial crime has been repeatedly found wanting. Yet the latest wave of excitement is different. On July 18th US President Donald Trump signed the GENIUS Act into law, providing stablecoins — crypto tokens backed by conventional (usually dollar) assets — with the regulatory certainty that insiders have long craved. The industry is booming; Wall Streeters are now scrambling to get involved. 'Tokenisation' is also taking off: a rapidly growing volume of assets trade on blockchains, representing stocks, money-market funds, and even private-equity stakes and debt. As with any revolution, the insurgents are euphoric and the old guard concerned. Vlad Tenev, chief executive of Robinhood, a digital-assets broker, says the new tech can 'lay the groundwork for crypto to become the backbone of the global financial system'. Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank, sees things a little differently. She worries that the rush of new stablecoins amounts to nothing less than 'the privatisation of money'. Both appreciate the scale of the change at hand. The present moment holds the potential of something far more disruptive for mainstream markets than earlier crypto speculation. Whereas bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies promised to be digital gold, tokens are wrappers, or vehicles representing other assets. That may sound unimpressive, but some of the most transformative innovations in modern finance simply changed the way in which assets are packaged, sliced and reconstituted — the exchange traded fund (ETF), the eurodollar and securitised debt among them. Today there are $US263 billion ($398b) in stablecoins in circulation, some 60 per cent more than a year ago. Standard Chartered, a bank, expects the market to be worth $US2 trillion in three years' time. Last month JPMorgan Chase, America's biggest bank, announced plans for a stablecoin-like product called JPMorgan Deposit Token (JPMD), despite the long-held crypto scepticism of the firm's boss, Jamie Dimon. The market for tokenised assets is worth just $US25b but has more than doubled in size over the past year. On June 30 Robinhood launched over 200 new tokens for European investors, enabling them to trade American stocks and ETFs outside of ordinary trading hours. Stablecoins allow for transactions that are cheap and fast, as ownership is registered instantaneously on digital ledgers, cutting out intermediaries who run traditional payment rails. This is especially valuable for cross-border transactions that are currently expensive and slow. Although stablecoins are now involved in less than 1 per cent of financial transactions around the world, the GENIUS Act will provide a boost. It confirms stablecoins are not securities, and requires the coins to be fully backed by safe, liquid assets. Retail giants, including Amazon and Walmart, are reportedly considering their own coins. To consumers, these might work like a gift card, providing a balance to spend with the retailer, perhaps at lower prices. That would cut out firms such as Mastercard and Visa, which make a margin of 2 per cent or so on sales they facilitate in America. Tokenised assets are a digital copy of another asset, whether that is a fund, a share in a company or a bundle of commodities. Like stablecoins, they can make financial transactions faster and easier, particularly ones involving less liquid assets. Some offerings are gimmicky. Why tokenise individual stocks? Doing so may enable 24-hour trading, since the exchanges on which the shares are listed do not need to be open, but the advantages of that are questionable. And marginal trading costs are already very low, or even zero, for many retail investors. A lot of offerings are less gimmicky, however. Consider money-market funds, which invest in Treasury bills. A tokenised version could double as a form of payment. The tokens are, like stablecoins, backed by safe assets, and can be swapped seamlessly on blockchains. They are also an investment that beats bank interest rates. The average American savings account offers a rate of less than 0.6 per cent; many money-market funds offer yields of 4 per cent. BlackRock's tokenised money-market fund, the largest, is now worth over $US2b. 'One day, I expect tokenised funds will become as familiar to investors as ETFs,' wrote Larry Fink, the firm's boss, in a recent letter to investors. This will prove disruptive for incumbents. Banks may be trying to get involved with the new digital wrappers, but they are doing so in part because they are aware tokens are a threat. A combination of stablecoins and tokenised money-market funds could, in time, make bank deposits a less attractive product. The American Bankers Association notes that if banks lost about 10 per cent of their $US19t in retail deposits — their cheapest form of funding — it would raise their average funding cost from 2.03 per cent to 2.27 per cent. Although total deposits, including commercial accounts, would not be reduced, bank margins would be squeezed. The new assets may also prove disruptive for the broader financial system. Holders of Robinhood's new stock tokens, for example, do not actually own the underlying securities. Technically, they own a derivative that tracks the value of the asset, including any dividends the company pays, rather than the stock itself. Thus they do not gain the voting rights usually conveyed by stock ownership. And if the issuer of the tokens goes bankrupt, the owners would find themselves in a difficult legal situation, competing with the collapsed firm's other creditors over who should take possession of the underlying assets. Something similar has happened with Linqto, a fintech startup that filed for bankruptcy earlier this month. The company had offered shares in private firms through special-purpose vehicles. Buyers are now unclear whether they own the assets they believed they possessed. It is one of the greatest opportunities for tokenisation that presents the greatest difficulty for regulators. Pairing illiquid private assets with easily exchanged tokens opens a cloistered market toms of retail investors, who have trillions of dollars of capital to allocate. They could buy slivers of the most exciting private companies, currently beyond their reach. This raises questions. Agencies such as the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) have far more sway over publicly listed firms than private ones, which is what makes the former suitable for retail investment. Tokens representing private shares would turn once-private stakes into assets that could be traded as easily as an ETF. But whereas the issuers of an ETF promise to provide intraday liquidity by buying and selling the underlying assets, the providers of tokens do not. At a large enough scale, tokens would in effect turn private firms into public ones, without any of the disclosure requirements normally required. Even pro-crypto regulators want to mark clear lines in the sand. Hester Peirce, a SEC commissioner known as 'crypto mom' for her digital-friendly approach, emphasised in a statement on July 9 that tokens ought not to be used to skirt securities laws. 'Tokenised securities are still securities,' she wrote. As such, disclosure rules for companies issuing securities will be enforced, regardless of whether the securities come wrapped in new crypto packaging. Although that makes sense in theory, a plethora of new assets with novel structures means that watchdogs will be playing catch-up endlessly in practice. So there is a paradox. If stablecoins are to be truly useful, they will also be truly disruptive. The more attractive tokenised assets are to brokers, customers, investors, merchants and other financial firms, the more they will change finance, in ways both welcome and worrying. Whatever the balance between the two, one thing is already clear: the view that crypto has not produced any innovations of note can be consigned to the past.
Miami Herald
13-07-2025
- Business
- Miami Herald
Earnings season begins: Pay attention to all the tariff talk
The second-quarter earnings season is upon us: six weeks to eight weeks of numbers, not to mention company officials gloating or trying to defend their results against angry investors and analysts. This earning season, like the first-quarter season, will come with a big wildcard: President Donald Trump's efforts to impose much heavier tariffs on imports to the United States. Don't miss the move: Subscribe to TheStreet's free daily newsletter The Administration announced a huge list of tariffs increases on April 2 that shocked so many from the Federal Reserve to Wall Street that the Standard & Poor's 500 Index fell more than 10% over the next two days. Related: Analyst reboots Amazon stock price target on AI growth The president has proposed 35% tariffs on Canadian goods. And a 50% tariff on Brazil, the world's largest coffee producer (among other things) unless the Brazil halts prosecution of former Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro, charging him with organizing a conspiracy to overturn Brazil's 2022 election. Over the weekend, Trump threatened 30% tariffs on Mexico and the European Union to take effect on Aug. 1 unless they come to a new deal. Related: Wall Street giant shares bold message on S&P 500's Magnificent 7 And we'll see, starting Sunday evening when futures trading begins at 6 p.m. ET, if investors force the administration to back down again. Tariffs are a dangerous game. You hear many Wall Streeters predicting the actual tariffs come in at roughly 10%. Trump learned a small lesson in April when stocks literally started to melt down. The history of draconian tariffs is they usually cause economic mayhem. And the politicians who get them enacted or their parties lose their jobs. So, in the meantime, the earnings start to come in: 103 in the week ahead and 702 in the week following. This week's reports are heavily weighted to financial institutions and big ones, too: JPMorgan Chase (JPM) , Wells Fargo (WFC) , BlackRock (BLK) and Citigroup (C) on of America (BAC) , Morgan Stanley (MS) and Goldman Sachs (GS) on Wednesday. American Express (AXP) and Charles Schwab (SCHW) on Friday. In all, some 42 financial companies will release reports this week. JPMorgan is the largest with a market cap of $797 billion. Among financial companies, only Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) and (BRK.B) is bigger at just over $1 trillion in market cap. (Yes, it's true Warren Buffett's conglomerate also includes one of the biggest railroads, See's Candies and a network of truck stops, but half the business is insurance. Berkshire is expected to report results in early August.) It's not all financial companies that report this week. Others include: United Airlines (UAL) on Semiconductor (TSM) , Netflix (NFLX) and PepsiCo (PEP) on Thursday. 3M Company (MMM) and Schlumberger (SLB) on Friday. Related: Stock Market Today: 35% Tariff on Canada Spooks Investors Financial institutions are always trying to balance interest on loans and earnings on investments against costs, especially cost of funds or, in the case of insurance companies, the costs of paying claims. The base short-term rate is the Fed's federal funds rate, now 4.25% to 4.5%. The Fed has been reluctant to cut rates this year because it's been concerned with how inflationary the tariffs will prove. Bloomberg/Getty Images The 73 financial stocks in the S&P 500 financial sector in the aggregate have had a decent year. The financial sector index is up 7.9% in 2025, with 48 stocks showing positive gains for the year to date. The return ranks the financials sixth out of the 11 S&P 500 sectors. Tops are the industrial and information technology sectors, up about 14% and 9.4%, respectively. The financial sector fell nearly 16% between April 2, when President announced his tariff proposal and the bottom of 702.44 on April 7. Since the bottom, the sector has rebounded about 24% to 868.31. The results are skewed a bit by Coinbase (COIN) , which runs one of the world's largest crypto currency exchanges. It's up 56% year to date. The company reports second-quarter earnings on July 31. More Investing: Weekly Wins: 10 Rules for You to Be a WinnerAmazon tries to make AI great again (or maybe for the first time)Veteran portfolio manager raises eyebrows with latest Meta Platforms moveGoogle plans major AI shift after Meta's surprising $14 billion move The big banks have not been scofflaws. Charles Schwab is up 22.3% year-to-date, second best in the sector. Citigroup has risen 23%. JP Morgan has added 19.7%. Goldman Sachs' gain is 23%. Related: Watch out: The threats that could derail the big rally Property-and-casualty insurance companies have struggled a bit this year, especially those exposed to the Los Angeles-area wild fires earlier this year. Chubb (CB) , Allstate (ALL) and Travelers (TRV) have seen their stocks show handsome returns over the last 52 weeks. But their returns for the year-to-date are flat or modest because of the fires. A study from UCLA estimated that the Los Angeles fires caused losses of between $95 billion and $164 billion with insured losses of some $75 billion. Wall Street is betting President Trump's big tax bill will unleash all sorts of money into the financial markets. That's why the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit new highs this past week and Nvidia saw its market cap top $4 trillion. But forgotten in that euphoria was that financials were the weakest S&P 500 sector, down 1.9%. The bill, however, is so complicated that no one is sure what's in it, much less if the provisions will do any good. The banks and other financial companies will be getting looser regulations, true. But there's risk to that: Bad or just plain stupid actors can destabilize the system. Perhaps we should agree that a few signals would help. The economy has to demonstrate there's a clear, stable path forward. The Administration has to demonstrate clarity of vision. You don't want constant disruptions from tariffs or other political machinations. If the first condition is met, inflation can ease, and interest rates can come down. As important, companies will start to feel confident enough to expand new plants and offices and hire more people. Investment flows would migrate to opportunities that offer new growth. Related: Veteran analyst drops new clue on Nvidia's next big move The Arena Media Brands, LLC THESTREET is a registered trademark of TheStreet, Inc.
Business Insider
06-07-2025
- Business
- Business Insider
Breaking down the true cost of AI data centers' rapid growth across America
Welcome back to our Sunday edition, where we round up some of our top stories and take you inside our newsroom. BI's Jake Epstein spent the night aboard a US Navy destroyer traveling from England to France. He said the space was tight, as he got a taste of what daily life is like. By the way, you can get the latest on modern warfare, defense tech innovations, and more with BI's new Defense Flash delivered to your inbox every week. Sign up here! On the agenda today: Inside Silicon Valley's $100 million salary divide. It's the age of the "Zillow Ban." Here's what homeowners should do. Amazon rolls out a stricter performance review process, BI exclusively reports. Wall Streeters told BI the hottest restaurants, bars, and clubs in the Hamptons. But first: BI has the receipts on the impact of AI data. If this was forwarded to you, sign up here. Download Business Insider's app here. This week's dispatch John-David Richardson for BI Tallying the full costs of AI To fulfill the promise of AI, data centers have sprung up around the country, using water, land, and electricity to deliver computing power for the booming tech. A team of BI reporters and editors sought to quantify the spread of these centers and show the impact on their surroundings. I chatted with two lead reporters on the project, Hannah Beckler and Dakin Campbell, about their takeaways. Hannah, Dakin, in a nutshell, how many data centers are there in the United States, and how fast is the boom happening? There are 1,240 data centers either built or approved for construction in the United States. That's four times as many as there were in 2010. What is the biggest worry with the spread of data centers — the green space they use, the water, the electricity? And if these concerns are urgent, why aren't towns pushing back? Electricity and water use are large concerns because they are limited resources. But data centers often bring tax revenue, which towns use to build roads, schools, and fire stations. Public officials have been caught in the middle, with some towns pushing back and others openly welcoming the industry with tax breaks. AI could usher in tremendous benefits, from business savings to life-saving science. Many also argue that a leading AI industry bolsters national security. For nearby property owners, the benefits are typically the tax revenue their towns collect, short-term jobs in construction (which can also bring road congestion), and perhaps a few dozen longer-term tech jobs in their community. For the future, what are the most important issues about data centers that people should be watching? The largest tech firms understand that public opinion is mixed about their use of resources like power and water, and they are taking steps to improve their efficiency. It will be critical to see whether they will find ways to use less water and more renewable energy. Big Tech's winner-take-all era In Silicon Valley, companies like Meta and OpenAI are offering eye-popping pay packages to technical hires to secure the best talent in the AI race. At the same time, however, rank-and-file tech workers are being laid off by the thousands. The result is an uneven shift that's going all-in on AI while squeezing other areas of innovation. The great salary divide. The "Zillow Ban" is here Zillow's new policy blacklists any homes that are shared publicly by an agent without being posted to the local databases that inform the rest of the real estate industry. It's part of Zillow's ongoing battle against big brokerages to crack down on "exclusive inventory" — home listings that are shared in some places but not others. The fight leaves homebuyers and sellers in a weird spot, but not a powerless one. The rules of the game are changing, and consumers should know exactly what they're getting from their agents and how much they'll be paying them, writes BI's James Rodriguez. What homebuyers should do. Amazon toughens up reviews How do you measure culture? That's a question Amazon managers will now have to deal with, thanks to a new performance review process the Big Tech company is instituting. Starting this mid-year review cycle, Amazon managers will use a three-tier system to rank how employees demonstrate the company's core values, which it calls Leadership Principles, in their work, per an internal memo seen by BI's Eugene Kim. It's the first time company culture is formally part of reviews. Hot spots in the Hamptons The Hamptons have long been a favorite summer outpost for Wall Street's bankers and traders. BI spoke to current and former finance industry professionals, as well as some Hamptons locals and business proprietors, to find the buzziest spots out east. Montauk's Surf Lodge was the most mentioned, but insiders also named scene-y restaurants like Le Bilboquet and low-key sites like Shinnecock, an ultra-exclusive golf club. See the list. This week's quote: "You are in a job interview for the whole internship." — Wendy Lewis, managing partner of KPMG's Richmond, Virginia office, on her advice for Big Four summer interns looking to stand out. More of this week's top reads: Everyone is saying AI will reshape banking. A new report forecasts exactly how much. 4 signs the economy is in worse shape than we thought. What Diddy's guilty verdict and civil suits mean for his net worth, music catalog, and brands. Generative AI is making running an online business a nightmare. Most Americans aren't paying attention to a key part of retirement that has nothing to do with investing. Leaked docs show how Meta is training its chatbots to message you first, remember your chats, and keep you talking. 4 ways Trump's 'big beautiful' tax bill could affect your wallet.
Business Insider
03-07-2025
- Business
- Business Insider
How Wall Street unwinds: The 7 Hamptons hot spots to know this summer
Whether by car, helicopter, the LIRR, or the infamous Jitney bus, if it's a Friday afternoon between Memorial and Labor Day, Wall Street is going "out east." The Hamptons have been a haven for the ultrawealthy since the Astors and Vanderbilts set up estates there more than a century ago, but the transition from fishing and whaling towns to playground for urban professionals really started to take off in the freewheeling 1980s, during Wall Street's boom years. Since then, the secret has been out, and over the last decade, social media and Bravo's "Summer House" have introduced a whole new generation to these once-sleepy seaside towns of Long Island. Walker Ward, who previously sold data and research to hedge funds and other large investors, told Business Insider that the Hamptons remain a recreation hub for stressed-out Wall Streeters looking to escape the heat and humidity of the city. "There's so much to do there," Ward said, who has summered there for the better part of the last decade. "Why wouldn't you want to go out there if you could afford it?" Whether you're looking to relax or rage, there's something for everyone — as long as you have deep pockets. And, as with any destination for the wealthy, these resort towns offer ample opportunity to peacock. "The Hamptons, especially with social media, have become a runway show for people to go out and flaunt what they have, how much money they make, and what kind of car they're driving," said Ward, who now parodies Wall Street on social media as WalkSauce42. In preparation for the July 4 holiday, we spoke to current and former financial industry professionals, as well as some Hamptons locals and business proprietors, about this year's hottest hangouts. Some of the industry insiders we spoke to asked to remain anonymous to protect their jobs because speaking to the press is either forbidden or frowned upon. Here are 7 top Hamptons hangouts for bankers, traders, and more. Surf Lodge This was the most-mentioned spot, which is why we're putting it first. It's a quaint seaside hotel and restaurant, as well as a sceney place to get bottle service on the beach and hear live music and top DJs in Montauk. But FYI, tickets for entry on July 4th are pretty much sold out. A table on the beach for 10 for the next day is listed as $ 7,500. A nearly $100 chicken tender tower went viral a few summers ago, thanks in part to TikTok and Instagram posts by Ward. "The tendie towers baby, that's the intern's favorite, and the holy grail," Ward joked to BI. "Everyone knows Surf Lodge." Someone who previously worked at a large investment bank confirmed it's popular with the Wall Street crowd. "It's got a DJ, a deck. You pay thousands for a table," he said. Le Bilboquet Sag Harbor The Sag Harbor outpost of this Upper East Side French restaurant opened in 2017, and has since built a reputation for being "one of the satellite offices for the elite," said Ward, who currently summers in Amagansett, between East Hampton and Montauk. The restaurant bans shorts and flip-flops and is perched alongside a marina deep enough to allow large yachts to dock. "Everyone loves to sit there and drink wine and look at the sterns of all these massive yachts," Ward said. The Wall Street recruiter described it as "another see and be seen spot." The menu offers a seafood tower complete with a dozen oysters, king crab, langoustine, shrimp, a half lobster, snow crab and shrimp for $250, a 100-gram tin of Caviar Ossetra Imperial for $490, and their signature Le Poulet Cajun, a $39 Cajun-spice-rubbed chicken with a beurre-blanc sauce, salad, and fries. Stephen Talkhouse Stephen Talkhouse, founded in 1987, is also known for its live music scene. It's become so popular with vacationers that one Hamptons local complained to BI of summer lines that "wrapped around the village." Ward agreed, saying you have to know the staff in order to "Trojan Horse" your way in. Located in Amagansett, between Montauk and East Hampton, its website describes it as "a legendary music scene and casual neighborhood bar in one. The music calendar for the July Fourth weekend includes "Secret Sellebrity Society Band" and alt-rockers "Kids That Fly." Mary Lou's The Palm Beach outpost of Mary Lou's is well attended by local financiers and the socially or politically connected. It's also attracted popular musical acts from The Chainsmokers to Mojave Grey. Mary Lou's Montauk branch, which opened earlier this year, is aiming to provide the same ambiance and flair. Cofounder Alex Melilla told BI that the crowd so far has been "a more mature crowd, affluent crowd, influencers, tastemakers, as well as a great local scene." The The Wall Street set may be especially drawn to the special menu set to be curated by the team behind Marea, the luxurious seafood restaurant just a stone's throw from Deutsche Bank Center in midtown, which Mary Lou's will offer during a weekend later this month. Duryea's Montauk Rachel Askinasi/Insider Duryea's is a seafood restaurant on the water in Montauk known for its $97 lobster cobb salad. Duryea's was purchased by Apollo CEO Marc Rowan in 2014, and it quickly turned from a classic lobster shack into one of the sceniest restaurants on the East Coast. Hampton's legend and Food Network star Ina Garten has said it is one of her favorite restaurants. "In my 20's that was the only place we would go on summer weekends there because it was cheap and easy," one Wall Street recruiter said. Not anymore. "People go to Duryea's on their yachts and tender to shore." Gurney's Montauk Wall Streeters looking to decompress might turn to Gurney's Resort & Seawater Spa, a 146-room hotel and spa with multiple al fresco dining options along a lush stretch of beach in Montauk. The Wall Street headhunter said it remains one of the most popular outposts for the financial crowd — and Lizabeth Zindel, the editor-in-chief of Hamptons Social Magazine, explained why: "It's absolutely beautiful," Zindel told BI. "There's a huge terrace as well, which overlooks the ocean from up above." On the menu at the outdoor Firepit lounge are creative cocktail concoctions like the Chocolate Negroni; the "Afternoon Tea" featuring Earl Grey, bergamot, gin, and cream; and the "Improved Grasshopper" featuring mint and chocolate liqueurs. Each is $23. The country clubs As with any wealthy enclave, the Hamptons boasts numerous country clubs. The Hampton's local described Southampton's Shinnecock, which is hosting next year's US Open, as the " fanciest golf place out here." Ward cited East Hampton's Maidstone Club as another place where "fancy people" from the Street spend their time "hobnobbing." "Maidstone is the Arnie poster above the bed," he said, referring to a poster of Arnold Schwarzenegger as a pro bodybuilder above an aspiring muscleman's bed. "It's what you aspire to be."
