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Egypt Independent
16-07-2025
- Politics
- Egypt Independent
Trump's 50-day shift on Ukraine is a big deal — but probably not for Putin
CNN — New developments Tuesday reinforced the idea that President Donald Trump has significantly shifted his view of the Ukraine war. But his short time horizons and lack of specificity on what exactly he will do for Ukraine, which are hallmarks of his leadership, mean the most critical factor preventing an end to the conflict will remain unchanged. There is little reason to believe that Russian President Vladimir Putin will change his own calculations on a war he sees as a historic imperative and that may be existential for him politically. Still, some things have undeniably changed. Worst-case scenarios for what the first six months of Trump's second term could mean for Ukraine didn't come to pass. This assessment excludes the Ukrainian civilians killed in Russia's recent deadly escalation of drones and missile strikes, including on apartment blocks. But Trump hasn't folded to his erstwhile friend Putin. He's not left Europe in the lurch under the shadow of an increasingly expansionist Russia amid the continent's worst land war since World War II. Trump seems more warmly disposed toward NATO than he has been for years. Ukrainian flags and portraits of soldiers are seen at a memorial for fallen fighters in Independence Square in Kyiv, Ukraine, on May 14. Roman Pilipey/AFP/Getty Images Ukraine faces the possibility of losing territory to a Russian summer offensive and more horror that civilians must bear. But diplomatically, it's in a more favorable position with the Trump administration than anyone could have dared hope when President Volodymyr Zelensky got an Oval Office dressing-down in February. That means its hopes of surviving as an independent, sovereign state have improved. Trump's hostility toward Kyiv and misgivings about pumping US aid into a World War I-style quagmire might mostly be motivated by his dismay that Putin snubbed his peace plans, which were slanted toward the Kremlin. But he at least has now shed some misconceptions that by force of personality alone he can bend Putin to his will. And by promising Patriot missiles to Kyiv — which Trump said on Tuesday are 'already being shipped' — and being open to a new Russia sanctions push in Congress, he's added steel to American peacemaking. Trying to coerce Putin to the table may not work either. But at least Trump isn't giving Ukraine away. A recalibration of expectations Trump's shift will allow all sides to recalibrate to new realities. Although, as CNN's Matthew Chance pointed out, Trump's 50-day deadline for Moscow to talk peace offers a seven-week window for the cynics in Moscow to lock in as many gains as possible by raining fire and death on Ukraine. Still, Trump has given himself some time to decide where he wants to go on Ukraine. And NATO states can enhance their own utility to Trump following a successful alliance summit. Zelensky can try to build more goodwill with Trump to shape his approach to any future peace deals — though his experience in the Oval Office is a warning not to try to push the president too far. And while the caveats about Putin being willing to wage indefinite war still apply, there's a small chance a few more weeks will persuade Putin to contemplate a US off-ramp to a deal likely to hand him territory he's seized in the three-year war and that he could spin as a win for Russian pride and security as well as a rebuke to the West. Trump appeared optimistic Tuesday as he defended the ultimatum's timeline. 'A lot of opinions change very rapidly — might not be 50 days, might be much sooner than 50 days,' the president said. How long will Trump's new outlook last? It would be unwise to assume Trump's estrangement with Putin is permanent. His anger seems mostly born of disappointment that Putin has not delivered him a win with a peace deal that might yield a Nobel Prize rather than any deep sentimental or geopolitical concern for the implications of abandoning Ukraine. And, as usual, the president has tempered previous vehement criticism of the Russian leader. After slamming Putin's 'bullsh*t' last week, Trump on Monday told the BBC: 'I'm not done with him.' Trump is transactional, operates in short windows of time and constantly seeks to land minor wins he can highlight. So, if he turned around and said he was meeting Putin in a summit next month or got mad at a new perceived slight from Zelensky, no one would be surprised. 'My concern here is that Donald Trump has the ability to be swayed very quickly,' said Sabrina Singh, a former Pentagon deputy press secretary who is now a CNN global affairs commentator. 'I fear that it's only a matter of time until there's another call between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin where Putin gives some sort of concessions and says we'll give a temporary five-day ceasefire and then turns around and says well, 'Ukraine violated this ceasefire so we're going to continue on with our war,'' Singh said on CNN News Central. Still, Trump's change of position is significant. By following through on his vow to send 'top of the line weapons' to Ukraine quickly, he is taking a big step. Patriot anti-missile defense systems could save many civilian lives, but Trump is embracing a political risk in ditching campaign-trail skepticism toward Ukraine shared by many MAGA supporters. A US Army commander discusses Patriot battery readiness with soldiers assigned to an Air Defense Artillery Regiment on February 19. Staff Sgt. Clara Harty/US Army Trump has also shown more openness to sanctions. Trade between the US and Russia is minuscule at this point, so bilateral punishments won't mean much. But if Trump does make good on a threat to impose secondary sanctions on nations that buy Russian products, especially energy exports, he could choke Moscow's economy and war machine. Still, would he really target India and China — two leading purchasers of Russian goods, in a move that could severely disrupt US relations with those giant powers and throw the global economy into turmoil? His erratic history of imposing and then suspending tariffs as part of his global trade war suggests not. Moscow may be banking on it. It also matters what, if any, additional weapons Trump may send to Ukraine. Its most optimistic supporters were delighted on Tuesday when the Financial Times first reported that the president had asked Zelensky in a phone call about Kyiv's capacity to target both Moscow and St. Petersburg. But Trump toned down the speculation on Tuesday, although aides told CNN that he has not ruled out shipping certain categories of offensive weapons to Ukraine that he's so far been unwilling to provide. 'No, he shouldn't target Moscow,' Trump told reporters, referring to Zelensky. 'I'm on nobody's side. You know whose side I'm on? Humanity's side.' Though he'd likely not admit it, the president is in a similar spot to one long occupied by his predecessor President Joe Biden. He's considering how far he can push Putin while avoiding inflammatory steps that might cross his invisible red lines and widen the war. NATO basks in Trump's rare praise Trump's new tolerance and even appreciation for NATO follows genuine fears that his new term might trigger the political earthquake of a US withdrawal. Credit goes to quiet diplomacy by British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron, who've worked on Trump and counseled Zelensky on how to approach the US in recent months. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, meanwhile, choreographed an alliance summit in the Netherlands last month that delivered a political triumph for the president. An agreement that NATO states would spend 5% of GDP on defense by 2035 allowed Trump to argue he'd forced Europe to get serious about protecting itself and alleviating the burden on the US. Alongside Rutte in the Oval Office on Monday, Trump praised Europe's spirit for the war in Ukraine, adding, 'Ultimately, having a strong Europe is a very good thing — it's a very good thing.' Now, NATO has solved another political problem for the president. It's effectively being used as a front for him to send Patriot missiles to Kyiv. European nations are sending the batteries to Kyiv, after which US NATO allies will buy replacements from the US. President Donald Trump, right, shakes the hand of NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte during a meeting in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, DC, on Monday. Evan Vucci/AP Rutte portrayed this diplomatic ballet as another win for Trump. 'Mr. President, dear Donald, this is really big, this is really big,' Rutte said, using characteristic praise that comes across as sycophancy to many but that Trump takes at face value. 'You called me on Thursday, that you had taken a decision, and a decision is that you want Ukraine (to have) what it needs to have to maintain — to be able to defend itself against Russia — but you do want the Europeans to pay for it, which is totally logical,' Rutte said. The NATO conduit offers at least symbolic distance for Trump as he sends weapons to Ukraine for use in a war against Russia. It allows some level of plausible deniability if MAGA activists disapprove. And it satisfies Trump's obsession with driving a good financial deal. Expect to hear him argue he's secured new sales and even jobs for US defense workers. The promise that other offensive weapons could also get to Ukraine using the same route is unspecific, however. It's not clear whether Ukraine will get weapons that will enable it to make battlefield advances against Russia. And it's unlikely that any US assistance will mirror the vast packages of military assistance and aid that were approved by Congress in the Biden administration. New moves in Congress The atmosphere on Capitol Hill is also changing. A drive to sanction Russia more severely already had strong bipartisan support in the Senate, and Trump has shown he can muster majorities in the House for his priorities. Trump ally Sen. Lindsey Graham and his Democratic co-sponsor Sen. Richard Blumenthal said Monday that their bill could be a 'real executive hammer' to isolate Russia. But the measure could still stir dissent in the GOP base at a time when Trump is already upsetting some supporters over the Jeffrey Epstein case. Missouri Sen. Josh Hawley, who opposes more aid to Ukraine, said Tuesday he doesn't see an urgent need for a bill now that Trump has threatened to impose sanctions on Russia and even secondary punishments on India and China. Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul blasted the initiative as 'one of the most dangerous bills ever to come before the Senate.' He predicted a total cut-off of trade with China, India and Turkey if they were to be hit by US punishments. So the domestic politics of Trump's Ukraine shift are not yet fully settled. And neither, really, is the geopolitical situation. Trump has adopted a tougher policy toward Putin, but it's not definitive or guaranteed to last. The extent of future US military support for Ukraine remains unclear, even if Kyiv's government is in better standing with the president than ever before. And European NATO states can breathe a sigh of relief about Trump, but his trade war threats have caused a deep transatlantic rift. All of this means that Putin's key calculation all along — that he can outlast the West on the war in Ukraine — seems unlikely to significantly shift.
USA Today
24-02-2025
- Politics
- USA Today
Whiplash: Trump's U-turn on Ukraine war after 3 years of US support
Whiplash: Trump's U-turn on Ukraine war after 3 years of US support Show Caption Hide Caption Donald Trump says Ukraine 'should have never started' war President Donald Trump suggested Ukraine "should have never started" the war in Ukraine. WASHINGTON – Talk about a U-turn. When Vladimir Putin's Russia invaded Ukraine three years ago, Joe Biden rallied the world. The U.S. and its partners isolated Russia and poured tens of billions of dollars in arms, cash and loans into Volodymyr Zelenskyy's battered country – even as Putin refused to yield. 'America stands up to bullies. We stand up for freedom. This is who we are,' Biden said from the White House. That was then. The Biden administration's position of 'nothing about Ukraine, without Ukraine' has been tossed aside by President Donald Trump and his advisors. Trump has lashed out at Ukraine, blaming its leaders for Putin's invasion and cutting Kyiv out of early negotiations with Russia – to the shock of America's allies. His taunting of Zelenskyy, who he called 'dictator,' was rebuked by European leaders and peeved Ukraine-supporting lawmakers in the U.S. "I'm just here to try and get peace," Trump said this month. "I don't care so much about anything other than I want to stop having millions of people killed." More: Mike Pence criticizes President Trump for saying Ukraine started war with Russia Who started it? The president's team says he deserves credit for shifting the conversation to how the war ends after more than a year of grim stalemate on the battlefront. But his repetition of Russian talking points about who's to blame for the war has put the U.S. national security establishment in an uncomfortable position. Trump national security adviser Michael Waltz would not say whether Trump believes Putin or Zelenskyy is more responsible for the Russian invasion at a White House briefing Thursday. Waltz pointedly underscored Trump's frustration with the Ukrainian president, who said Trump was living in a "disinformation" bubble informed by the aggressor's narrative. "There has been ongoing fighting on both sides. It is World War I-style trench warfare," Waltz said. "Some of the rhetoric coming out of Kyiv, frankly, and – and insults to President Trump – were unacceptable," he added. In a floor speech later that day, Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, D-N.H., the ranking member on the Foreign Relations committee, said Ukraine still has bipartisan support. More: Zelenskyy says he would step down if Ukraine can join NATO, blasts Trump mineral pitch "Vladimir Putin is responsible for this. He's responsible for the bodies in Bucha and for thousands across Ukraine,' Shaheen said, recalling the 2022 massacre of hundreds of Ukrainian townspeople by Russia's 234th Guards Air Assault Regiment. 'And he's got to be held accountable. We cannot let him get away with this." The full civilian toll isn't known. Ukraine does not release casualty figures and lacks access to Russian-occupied areas of the country – about 20% of its territory. Zelenskyy said he is willing to step down to join NATO, blasts Trump Ukrainian President Zelenskyy said he would step down if it meant Ukraine could join NATO. He also blasted Trump's mineral reserves proposal. According to the U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights, at least 40,838 civilians had been killed or wounded in Ukraine as of December 2024, including 2,500 children. Kyiv estimates 20,000 Ukrainian kids have been forcibly taken to Russia – the International Criminal Court has charged Putin with approving their abductions – with only a fraction returned. In addition to the Black Sea region of Crimea, which Russia seized in 2014, Moscow controls large swathes of Ukraine. In a surprise move last year, Ukraine seized territory in the western region of Kursk. Russia said last week it's retaken much of that territory and now controls 75% of the Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions of eastern Ukraine, in additon to almost all of the Luhansk region. Trump sparks panic Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth alarmed U.S. allies earlier this month when he said in a speech that 'returning to Ukraine's pre-2014 borders is an unrealistic objective' and that eventual NATO membership for Ukraine - a pillar of Kyiv's security strategy - is not "a realistic outcome of a negotiated settlement." Trump said later Hegseth was "probably" right about NATO membership. "I'm backing Ukraine," the president told reporters. "I'm approving, but I do want security for our money." The comments came after a call with Putin, in which Trump said they discussed the 'great benefit that we will someday have in working together' and raised an in-person meeting in Saudi Arabia. The call was the first known conversation between a U.S. president and Putin since the war began. His team then traveled to Riyadh to meet with Russian officials, including foreign minister Sergei Lavrov, who is under U.S. sanctions. Secretary of State Marco Rubio touted 'the incredible opportunities that exist to partner with the Russians, geopolitically on issues of common interest and, frankly, economically.' The talks incensed Ukraine. Zelenskyy postponed a trip of his own to Saudi Arabia that was due to follow. More: Zelenskyy: Trump is trapped in Russian 'disinformation' bubble "We want no one to decide anything behind our backs," he said. "No decision can be made without Ukraine on how to end the war in Ukraine." Trump responded tersely. 'You've been there for three years. You should have ended it. Three years. You should have never started it,' he said. 'You could have made a deal.' Relations sour between Trump and Zelenskyy Trump's complicated history with Zelenskyy dates back to an infamous 2019 phone call the leaders shared two months after the former comedian was sworn in as Ukraine's president. From the White House, Trump asked Zelenskyy to investigate Biden, then Trump's top rival for the presidency, his son Hunter – who had served on the board of a Ukrainian energy company – and a discredited conspiracy theory involving a hack on the Democratic National Committee during the 2016 election that U.S. prosecutors say was done by Russian agents. The phone call led to Trump's first impeachment trial. He was accused by House Democrats of withholding military aid to Ukraine and dangling a White House visit in front of Zelenskyy in a quid pro quo, a charge he denied. Trump eventually provided Ukraine with weapons. He was acquitted by the Republican-controlled Senate in February 2020. Zelenskyy did not visit the White House until after Biden took office. Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022, leading to the protracted war. Trump has repeatedly derided Zelenskyy in the years since, most recently calling him a "dictator" and demanding elections in Ukraine despite the ongoing invasion. Ukraine's constitution bars elections while the country is under martial law. Tensions flared last fall ahead of the U.S. election when Zelenskyy visited an ammunition plant in Pennsylvania, a major U.S. battleground state, and said Trump, who'd boasted he could end the war in a single day, didn't know how to conclude the war. Zelenskyy sought to bring the temperature down at a New York meeting immediately afterward. The leaders spoke by phone after the election and met in Paris in December alongside French President Emmanuel Macron. (Macron is due in Washington on Monday where, he said on social media, he will warn Trump against appearing weak to Putin.) A tit-for-tat broke out anew after after Trump hit out at Zelenskyy for refusing a deal to provide the U.S. with access to its mineral resources in exchange for aid. The Ukrainian leader returned fire, saying Trump was buying into disinformation. Trump demanded $500 billion in Ukraine's minerals as repayment for U.S. assistance, but Zelenskyy retorted that American aid hasn't come close to that enormous figure. In meeting with US, Russia said NATO must disavow promise to Ukraine Russian officials said NATO must disavow a 2008 promise to allow Ukraine to enter the organization in order to end the war. Former U.S. officials say the spat has hurt both leaders. "Trump needs Zelenskyy. Zelenskyy needs Trump,' Charles Kupchan, a former senior director for European affairs at the National Security Council said recently on a call with reporters. 'This kind of mutual insult game only plays into the hands of Russia at a time when the Trump administration should be doing everything to increase Ukraine's leverage, not undermine it," he said. Kupchan, who supports direct talks with the Russians, added: "I appreciate what Trump is trying to do. In practice, it is a big hot mess.'
CNN
18-02-2025
- Politics
- CNN
Analysis: Trump's rush for a deal with Putin leaves Ukraine and Europe scrambling
A dangerous fault line is opening as Donald Trump rushes to end the war in Ukraine. The US president craves an early political triumph to fuel his claims to a Nobel Peace Prize. But an equitable end to the conflict may defy a quick fix since it poses existential issues for Ukraine and European security. This tension was exacerbated by the president's decision to exclude officials from Kyiv and European powers from US-Russia talks taking place in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday. The fate of his push to end the war will ultimately rest on whether his swift pace can accommodate critical details of a peace that allows Ukraine to survive, secures the borders and security of Europe and avoids rewarding Russia's illegal invasion. Trump has shown little obvious concern for any of these three goals – one reason why his strategy is a gamble. But each party in the process has grave concerns and significant leverage, which explains why ending the war will be far harder than his failed campaign trail promises to forge peace in 24 hours. The war often seems a distraction from what Trump really wants – the chance to sit down with Putin, one of the global strongmen he admires. Still, there's a chance that Trump's urgency and power, plus that channel with the Russian leader, could change the dynamics of this World War I-style war of attrition. Trump is, for instance, only voicing a reality that many US and European officials have shared privately for months: that Ukraine can no longer win the war and eject Russia from all the territory it has seized. Trump's subordinates endlessly laud him as the world's greatest dealmaker. But his efforts so far seem naive. He's conceded some of Russia's top goals, often seems to empathize with the goals of the invasion and has turned on America's European friends who've shared the cost of supporting Ukraine's war effort. Those are the same allies who Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth says must police any peace alone. In his most extraordinary move, Trump tried to claim half of Ukraine's rare earth metals wealth — in a play that exploited an invaded nation's desperate vulnerability. President Volodymyr Zelensky rejected the 'deal.' Trump appears to have little understanding of the historical hazards either in Ukraine or indeed in the Middle East, given his plan to move the Palestinians from Gaza so he can build beach resorts. Trump's view of every geopolitical crisis as a real estate deal waiting to be clinched suggests he might embrace an agreement that lets Putin keep all of the land he's stolen just to stop the killing. And there's a big risk he's being played by Putin. The Russian leader warmed the atmosphere ahead of the Saudi talks by handing Trump victories with the release of several US prisoners, including on Monday with Kalob Byers, 28, who was arrested on drug smuggling charges last week. And Trump thinks he came away from his call with the Russian leader last week with a pledge to talk sweeping nuclear arms cuts. This is one reason why the Saudi talks involving Secretary of State Marco Rubio and national security adviser Mike Waltz are so important: They must test Russia's seriousness and protect Trump from overzealous interpretations of Russian concessions. The stakes are huge. A hurried peace deal that strengthens Russia and weakens European security by validating Putin's expansionism would likely sow the seeds for an even worse future war. At the end of the Cold War, President George H.W. Bush managed the fall of the Soviet Union and its satellite states in Eastern Europe — sometimes overruling regional leaders in the wider interests of the West and their own security. There's no sign that Trump feels any such affinity for Europe or its future. While Trump craves political glory, Zelensky is fighting for something far more profound: his country's survival, now and as a future viable, independent sovereign state. Trump's decision to open talks with Russia in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday without Ukraine raised fears he's targeting a quick agreement with Putin that he'd then impose on Kyiv. Zelensky warned last week at the Munich Security Conference that he would 'never accept deals made behind our backs without our involvement.' But if Trump walks away, Zelensky would have to decide whether to fight on without US arms and ammunition and to rely on Europe's lesser punch. Zelensky understands that he can't count on US support with Trump in the White House and said last week it was time to form a European army because, 'the old days are over when America supported Europe just because it always had.' Trump has given few signs that he's got Ukraine's interests at heart. Last week, for instance, he echoed one of Putin's rationales for the war, saying that Ukraine's NATO aspirations helped trigger Russia's invasion. This new US empathy with the invader, rather than the invaded party, is why Europe's participation in peace talks is necessary to even the playing field. But Trump is already looking beyond Zelensky, who was the recipient of the telephone call that led to Trump's first impeachment in his first term. He said last week that Ukraine needs elections 'at some point' after a peace deal and archly noted that Zelensky's poll numbers were 'not great.' This is another Russian talking point that Trump has picked up — even though the idea that Putin, who sustains his long rule with sham elections, has any credibility in talking about elections is absurd. Trump said on Sunday that he's convinced after his phone call with Putin that the Russian leader wants to end the war. 'I think he wants to stop fighting. I see that. We spoke long and hard,' the US president said. But strategically, Putin may have reasons to keep fighting. Despite horrendous losses, his forces are making grinding progress on the blood-soaked battlefield. The Russian president has already achieved some of his goals before sitting down with Trump. The US president has shattered Putin's status as a pariah in the West by speaking enthusiastically about the possibility of summits in both the US and Russia. And by ruling out a path to NATO membership for Ukraine and the deployment of any US troops to keep an eventual peace, the Trump administration has given up key potential sources of leverage. Putin might have failed in his bid to capture all of Ukraine, to take Kyiv and to replace Zelensky with a pro-Moscow leader. But he's carved off a big chunk of territory in the southeast that he can use to protect Crimea and that offers a long shoreline along the strategically vital Black Sea coast. Russia must now calculate whether its potential payoff for handing Trump a huge win with a peace deal will outweigh the benefits of continuing to fight. The lifting of US and European sanctions, for example, would free the Russian economy, and Trump is already demanding that Putin be readmitted to the Group of Eight industrialized nations. Most scenarios for ending the war envisage a hard border between eastern and western Ukraine — reminiscent of communist East Germany and West Germany that emerged from World War II. History suggests that Putin would use such territory to replenish his military for a possible future resumption of hostilities or to destabilize the rest of Ukraine with the hope of eventually getting a sympathetic government in Kyiv. He's long assessed he could wait out the West on Ukraine. His bet now seems likely to pay off as he seeks to to reconstitute the historic Russian empire and Moscow's regional sphere of influence. Putin is playing a far longer game than America's lame duck president who's desperate for a quick deal. Until a few weeks ago, some European diplomats and foreign policy opinion formers were suggesting that alarm over Trump's reelection was overblown, and that the new president's volatility could be handled. So, the hostility of Hegseth and Vice President JD Vance in Europe last week was a rude awakening. As was Trump's shattering of Western unity over Ukraine by sending his team to discuss peace with Putin's team before consulting Europe. In retrospect, it's baffling why European governments were so surprised. Trump is only doing what he said he'd do on the campaign trail. Their misreading of the US president led to the embarrassing spectacle of key leaders rushing to Paris for emergency talks on Monday to work out how to respond to being cut out of the game. The outcome of the Ukrainian war is almost as vital for Europe as it is for Ukraine. A peace deal that strengthens Russia would leave the continent facing an emboldened enemy just as the US threatens to walk away from 80 years of security guarantees to its allies. Europe's severely depleted armed forces after years of budget cuts makes it doubtful it can sustain a meaningful peace force in Ukraine after any peace agreement. And new promises of surged defense spending could take years to fill the gaps and will be a heavy political lift that will require cuts in social spending. But British Prime Minister Keir Starmer warned after the Paris talks on Monday that Europe faced a 'once in a generation moment.' In another sign that Europeans are trying to get their act together, Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, wrote on X that Ukraine deserves 'peace through strength,' echoing Trump's new buzzword for his 'America First' foreign policy. Starmer offered to send UK troops to help monitor any peace deal in Ukraine as part of an international force, but with one important caveat — that there's a US 'backstop' since such a guarantee would be the only way to prevent Russia from invading Ukraine again. His comment showed that European leaders understand that they'd be exposing their troops without US support and could risk getting into a war with Russia themselves. Starmer, who plans to meet Trump in Washington next week, is offering himself as a bridge between European powers and the US president, while trying to repair Britain's global clout that has waned since it left the European Union. There are just two problems: Trump doesn't seem interested in a bridge. And there's little sign he really cares what the Europeans think.
CNN
18-02-2025
- Politics
- CNN
Analysis: Trump's rush for a deal with Putin leaves Ukraine and Europe scrambling
A dangerous fault line is opening as Donald Trump rushes to end the war in Ukraine. The US president craves an early political triumph to fuel his claims to a Nobel Peace Prize. But an equitable end to the conflict may defy a quick fix since it poses existential issues for Ukraine and European security. This tension was exacerbated by the president's decision to exclude officials from Kyiv and European powers from US-Russia talks taking place in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday. The fate of his push to end the war will ultimately rest on whether his swift pace can accommodate critical details of a peace that allows Ukraine to survive, secures the borders and security of Europe and avoids rewarding Russia's illegal invasion. Trump has shown little obvious concern for any of these three goals – one reason why his strategy is a gamble. But each party in the process has grave concerns and significant leverage, which explains why ending the war will be far harder than his failed campaign trail promises to forge peace in 24 hours. The war often seems a distraction from what Trump really wants – the chance to sit down with Putin, one of the global strongmen he admires. Still, there's a chance that Trump's urgency and power, plus that channel with the Russian leader, could change the dynamics of this World War I-style war of attrition. Trump is, for instance, only voicing a reality that many US and European officials have shared privately for months: that Ukraine can no longer win the war and eject Russia from all the territory it has seized. Trump's subordinates endlessly laud him as the world's greatest dealmaker. But his efforts so far seem naive. He's conceded some of Russia's top goals, often seems to empathize with the goals of the invasion and has turned on America's European friends who've shared the cost of supporting Ukraine's war effort. Those are the same allies who Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth says must police any peace alone. In his most extraordinary move, Trump tried to claim half of Ukraine's rare earth metals wealth — in a play that exploited an invaded nation's desperate vulnerability. President Volodymyr Zelensky rejected the 'deal.' Trump appears to have little understanding of the historical hazards either in Ukraine or indeed in the Middle East, given his plan to move the Palestinians from Gaza so he can build beach resorts. Trump's view of every geopolitical crisis as a real estate deal waiting to be clinched suggests he might embrace an agreement that lets Putin keep all of the land he's stolen just to stop the killing. And there's a big risk he's being played by Putin. The Russian leader warmed the atmosphere ahead of the Saudi talks by handing Trump victories with the release of several US prisoners, including on Monday with Kalob Byers, 28, who was arrested on drug smuggling charges last week. And Trump thinks he came away from his call with the Russian leader last week with a pledge to talk sweeping nuclear arms cuts. This is one reason why the Saudi talks involving Secretary of State Marco Rubio and national security adviser Mike Waltz are so important: They must test Russia's seriousness and protect Trump from overzealous interpretations of Russian concessions. The stakes are huge. A hurried peace deal that strengthens Russia and weakens European security by validating Putin's expansionism would likely sow the seeds for an even worse future war. At the end of the Cold War, President George H.W. Bush managed the fall of the Soviet Union and its satellite states in Eastern Europe — sometimes overruling regional leaders in the wider interests of the West and their own security. There's no sign that Trump feels any such affinity for Europe or its future. While Trump craves political glory, Zelensky is fighting for something far more profound: his country's survival, now and as a future viable, independent sovereign state. Trump's decision to open talks with Russia in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday without Ukraine raised fears he's targeting a quick agreement with Putin that he'd then impose on Kyiv. Zelensky warned last week at the Munich Security Conference that he would 'never accept deals made behind our backs without our involvement.' But if Trump walks away, Zelensky would have to decide whether to fight on without US arms and ammunition and to rely on Europe's lesser punch. Zelensky understands that he can't count on US support with Trump in the White House and said last week it was time to form a European army because, 'the old days are over when America supported Europe just because it always had.' Trump has given few signs that he's got Ukraine's interests at heart. Last week, for instance, he echoed one of Putin's rationales for the war, saying that Ukraine's NATO aspirations helped trigger Russia's invasion. This new US empathy with the invader, rather than the invaded party, is why Europe's participation in peace talks is necessary to even the playing field. But Trump is already looking beyond Zelensky, who was the recipient of the telephone call that led to Trump's first impeachment in his first term. He said last week that Ukraine needs elections 'at some point' after a peace deal and archly noted that Zelensky's poll numbers were 'not great.' This is another Russian talking point that Trump has picked up — even though the idea that Putin, who sustains his long rule with sham elections, has any credibility in talking about elections is absurd. Trump said on Sunday that he's convinced after his phone call with Putin that the Russian leader wants to end the war. 'I think he wants to stop fighting. I see that. We spoke long and hard,' the US president said. But strategically, Putin may have reasons to keep fighting. Despite horrendous losses, his forces are making grinding progress on the blood-soaked battlefield. The Russian president has already achieved some of his goals before sitting down with Trump. The US president has shattered Putin's status as a pariah in the West by speaking enthusiastically about the possibility of summits in both the US and Russia. And by ruling out a path to NATO membership for Ukraine and the deployment of any US troops to keep an eventual peace, the Trump administration has given up key potential sources of leverage. Putin might have failed in his bid to capture all of Ukraine, to take Kyiv and to replace Zelensky with a pro-Moscow leader. But he's carved off a big chunk of territory in the southeast that he can use to protect Crimea and that offers a long shoreline along the strategically vital Black Sea coast. Russia must now calculate whether its potential payoff for handing Trump a huge win with a peace deal will outweigh the benefits of continuing to fight. The lifting of US and European sanctions, for example, would free the Russian economy, and Trump is already demanding that Putin be readmitted to the Group of Eight industrialized nations. Most scenarios for ending the war envisage a hard border between eastern and western Ukraine — reminiscent of communist East Germany and West Germany that emerged from World War II. History suggests that Putin would use such territory to replenish his military for a possible future resumption of hostilities or to destabilize the rest of Ukraine with the hope of eventually getting a sympathetic government in Kyiv. He's long assessed he could wait out the West on Ukraine. His bet now seems likely to pay off as he seeks to to reconstitute the historic Russian empire and Moscow's regional sphere of influence. Putin is playing a far longer game than America's lame duck president who's desperate for a quick deal. Until a few weeks ago, some European diplomats and foreign policy opinion formers were suggesting that alarm over Trump's reelection was overblown, and that the new president's volatility could be handled. So, the hostility of Hegseth and Vice President JD Vance in Europe last week was a rude awakening. As was Trump's shattering of Western unity over Ukraine by sending his team to discuss peace with Putin's team before consulting Europe. In retrospect, it's baffling why European governments were so surprised. Trump is only doing what he said he'd do on the campaign trail. Their misreading of the US president led to the embarrassing spectacle of key leaders rushing to Paris for emergency talks on Monday to work out how to respond to being cut out of the game. The outcome of the Ukrainian war is almost as vital for Europe as it is for Ukraine. A peace deal that strengthens Russia would leave the continent facing an emboldened enemy just as the US threatens to walk away from 80 years of security guarantees to its allies. Europe's severely depleted armed forces after years of budget cuts makes it doubtful it can sustain a meaningful peace force in Ukraine after any peace agreement. And new promises of surged defense spending could take years to fill the gaps and will be a heavy political lift that will require cuts in social spending. But British Prime Minister Keir Starmer warned after the Paris talks on Monday that Europe faced a 'once in a generation moment.' In another sign that Europeans are trying to get their act together, Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, wrote on X that Ukraine deserves 'peace through strength,' echoing Trump's new buzzword for his 'America First' foreign policy. Starmer offered to send UK troops to help monitor any peace deal in Ukraine as part of an international force, but with one important caveat — that there's a US 'backstop' since such a guarantee would be the only way to prevent Russia from invading Ukraine again. His comment showed that European leaders understand that they'd be exposing their troops without US support and could risk getting into a war with Russia themselves. Starmer, who plans to meet Trump in Washington next week, is offering himself as a bridge between European powers and the US president, while trying to repair Britain's global clout that has waned since it left the European Union. There are just two problems: Trump doesn't seem interested in a bridge. And there's little sign he really cares what the Europeans think.
Yahoo
18-02-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Trump's rush for a deal with Putin leaves Ukraine and Europe scrambling
A dangerous fault line is opening as Donald Trump rushes to end the war in Ukraine. The US president craves an early political triumph to fuel his claims to a Nobel Peace Prize. But an equitable end to the conflict may defy a quick fix since it poses existential issues for Ukraine and European security. This tension was exacerbated by the president's decision to exclude officials from Kyiv and European powers from US-Russia talks taking place in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday. The fate of his push to end the war will ultimately rest on whether his swift pace can accommodate critical details of a peace that allows Ukraine to survive, secures the borders and security of Europe and avoids rewarding Russia's illegal invasion. Trump has shown little obvious concern for any of these three goals – one reason why his strategy is a gamble. But each party in the process has grave concerns and significant leverage, which explains why ending the war will be far harder than his failed campaign trail promises to forge peace in 24 hours. The war often seems a distraction from what Trump really wants – the chance to sit down with Putin, one of the global strongmen he admires. Still, there's a chance that Trump's urgency and power, plus that channel with the Russian leader, could change the dynamics of this World War I-style war of attrition. Trump is, for instance, only voicing a reality that many US and European officials have shared privately for months: that Ukraine can no longer win the war and eject Russia from all the territory it has seized. Trump's subordinates endlessly laud him as the world's greatest dealmaker. But his efforts so far seem naive. He's conceded some of Russia's top goals, often seems to empathize with the goals of the invasion and has turned on America's European friends who've shared the cost of supporting Ukraine's war effort. Those are the same allies who Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth says must police any peace alone. In his most extraordinary move, Trump tried to claim half of Ukraine's rare earth metals wealth — in a play that exploited an invaded nation's desperate vulnerability. President Volodymyr Zelensky rejected the 'deal.' Trump appears to have little understanding of the historical hazards either in Ukraine or indeed in the Middle East, given his plan to move the Palestinians from Gaza so he can build beach resorts. Trump's view of every geopolitical crisis as a real estate deal waiting to be clinched suggests he might embrace an agreement that lets Putin keep all of the land he's stolen just to stop the killing. And there's a big risk he's being played by Putin. The Russian leader warmed the atmosphere ahead of the Saudi talks by handing Trump victories with the release of several US prisoners, including on Monday with Kalob Byers, 28, who was arrested on drug smuggling charges last week. And Trump thinks he came away from his call with the Russian leader last week with a pledge to talk sweeping nuclear arms cuts. This is one reason why the Saudi talks involving Secretary of State Marco Rubio and national security adviser Mike Waltz are so important: They must test Russia's seriousness and protect Trump from overzealous interpretations of Russian concessions. The stakes are huge. A hurried peace deal that strengthens Russia and weakens European security by validating Putin's expansionism would likely sow the seeds for an even worse future war. At the end of the Cold War, President George H.W. Bush managed the fall of the Soviet Union and its satellite states in Eastern Europe — sometimes overruling regional leaders in the wider interests of the West and their own security. There's no sign that Trump feels any such affinity for Europe or its future. While Trump craves political glory, Zelensky is fighting for something far more profound: his country's survival, now and as a future viable, independent sovereign state. Trump's decision to open talks with Russia in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday without Ukraine raised fears he's targeting a quick agreement with Putin that he'd then impose on Kyiv. Zelensky warned last week at the Munich Security Conference that he would 'never accept deals made behind our backs without our involvement.' But if Trump walks away, Zelensky would have to decide whether to fight on without US arms and ammunition and to rely on Europe's lesser punch. Zelensky understands that he can't count on US support with Trump in the White House and said last week it was time to form a European army because, 'the old days are over when America supported Europe just because it always had.' Trump has given few signs that he's got Ukraine's interests at heart. Last week, for instance, he echoed one of Putin's rationales for the war, saying that Ukraine's NATO aspirations helped trigger Russia's invasion. This new US empathy with the invader, rather than the invaded party, is why Europe's participation in peace talks is necessary to even the playing field. But Trump is already looking beyond Zelensky, who was the recipient of the telephone call that led to Trump's first impeachment in his first term. He said last week that Ukraine needs elections 'at some point' after a peace deal and archly noted that Zelensky's poll numbers were 'not great.' This is another Russian talking point that Trump has picked up — even though the idea that Putin, who sustains his long rule with sham elections, has any credibility in talking about elections is absurd. Trump said on Sunday that he's convinced after his phone call with Putin that the Russian leader wants to end the war. 'I think he wants to stop fighting. I see that. We spoke long and hard,' the US president said. But strategically, Putin may have reasons to keep fighting. Despite horrendous losses, his forces are making grinding progress on the blood-soaked battlefield. The Russian president has already achieved some of his goals before sitting down with Trump. The US president has shattered Putin's status as a pariah in the West by speaking enthusiastically about the possibility of summits in both the US and Russia. And by ruling out a path to NATO membership for Ukraine and the deployment of any US troops to keep an eventual peace, the Trump administration has given up key potential sources of leverage. Putin might have failed in his bid to capture all of Ukraine, to take Kyiv and to replace Zelensky with a pro-Moscow leader. But he's carved off a big chunk of territory in the southeast that he can use to protect Crimea and that offers a long shoreline along the strategically vital Black Sea coast. Russia must now calculate whether its potential payoff for handing Trump a huge win with a peace deal will outweigh the benefits of continuing to fight. The lifting of US and European sanctions, for example, would free the Russian economy, and Trump is already demanding that Putin be readmitted to the Group of Eight industrialized nations. Most scenarios for ending the war envisage a hard border between eastern and western Ukraine — reminiscent of communist East Germany and West Germany that emerged from World War II. History suggests that Putin would use such territory to replenish his military for a possible future resumption of hostilities or to destabilize the rest of Ukraine with the hope of eventually getting a sympathetic government in Kyiv. He's long assessed he could wait out the West on Ukraine. His bet now seems likely to pay off as he seeks to to reconstitute the historic Russian empire and Moscow's regional sphere of influence. Putin is playing a far longer game than America's lame duck president who's desperate for a quick deal. Until a few weeks ago, some European diplomats and foreign policy opinion formers were suggesting that alarm over Trump's reelection was overblown, and that the new president's volatility could be handled. So, the hostility of Hegseth and Vice President JD Vance in Europe last week was a rude awakening. As was Trump's shattering of Western unity over Ukraine by sending his team to discuss peace with Putin's team before consulting Europe. In retrospect, it's baffling why European governments were so surprised. Trump is only doing what he said he'd do on the campaign trail. Their misreading of the US president led to the embarrassing spectacle of key leaders rushing to Paris for emergency talks on Monday to work out how to respond to being cut out of the game. The outcome of the Ukrainian war is almost as vital for Europe as it is for Ukraine. A peace deal that strengthens Russia would leave the continent facing an emboldened enemy just as the US threatens to walk away from 80 years of security guarantees to its allies. Europe's severely depleted armed forces after years of budget cuts makes it doubtful it can sustain a meaningful peace force in Ukraine after any peace agreement. And new promises of surged defense spending could take years to fill the gaps and will be a heavy political lift that will require cuts in social spending. But British Prime Minister Keir Starmer warned after the Paris talks on Monday that Europe faced a 'once in a generation moment.' In another sign that Europeans are trying to get their act together, Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, wrote on X that Ukraine deserves 'peace through strength,' echoing Trump's new buzzword for his 'America First' foreign policy. Starmer offered to send UK troops to help monitor any peace deal in Ukraine as part of an international force, but with one important caveat — that there's a US 'backstop' since such a guarantee would be the only way to prevent Russia from invading Ukraine again. His comment showed that European leaders understand that they'd be exposing their troops without US support and could risk getting into a war with Russia themselves. Starmer, who plans to meet Trump in Washington next week, is offering himself as a bridge between European powers and the US president, while trying to repair Britain's global clout that has waned since it left the European Union. There are just two problems: Trump doesn't seem interested in a bridge. And there's little sign he really cares what the Europeans think.
