Latest news with #economicgrowth
Wall Street Journal
2 hours ago
- Business
- Wall Street Journal
The Power of Positive Thinking about Deregulation
Economic growth was negative in the first quarter, government-imposed costs on trade have risen this year, federal debt continues to soar, stocks are richly priced relative to their earnings, and Congress is laboring just to prevent massive tax hikes scheduled for the end of the year. Yet equity investors keep expressing confidence in U.S. business. The Journal's Karen Langley and Krystal Hur report:
Daily Mail
3 hours ago
- Business
- Daily Mail
ANDREW PIERCE reveals the breathtakingly cynical reason why Keir Starmer WON'T sack chancellor Rachel Reeves...yet
As MPs poured out of the Commons after another stormy Prime Minister's Questions this week, the Chancellor Rachel Reeves cut a particularly lonely figure. With her head bowed, Reeves was exiting the Chamber alone – until one colleague caught up with her to walk loyally by her side. It was the chairman of the Labour Party, one Ellie Reeves, the Chancellor's younger sister. No other Labour MP, it seems, was willing to be seen associating with the embattled Chancellor. What a dismal year she has had. Reeves came into office last summer promising to 'unlock private investment', 'fix the foundations of our economy' and deliver 'sustained economic growth'. She has failed on all three counts – and it increasingly shows. Many Labour MPs commented on the Chancellor's body language as she took her usual place next to Starmer at PMQs. 'She looked broken, like she had been tranquillised,' says one source. 'She is clearly deeply troubled and unhappy.' There have even been reports – sharply denied by the Treasury – that Reeves spent much of Thursday in floods of tears amid shouting matches with colleagues. 'It's not true: she is resolute,' says one of her allies – a diminishing group these days. Now the Chancellor's problems are about to get even worse. Keir Starmer 's screeching U-turn over disability benefit cuts means she has to find billions to fill a budget black hole – and comes only weeks after her humiliating £1.25 billion volte-face on winter fuel payments. With almost 130 Labour MPs joining the revolt over the Welfare Bill, there are now huge questions about the Prime Minister's grip over his party. Keir Starmer 's screeching U-turn over disability benefit cuts means Reeves has to find billions to fill a budget black hole But it is the debacle over disability cuts that threatens to destroy the remnants of the Chancellor's political and economic credibility. Reeves is now at the centre of a full-blown crisis in relations between Downing Street and Labour MPs. The Chancellor – more than any other member of the Cabinet – is being blamed for the shambles. Some MPs have privately said they 'hate' her. Now the Chancellor's critics within her own party are growing ever louder. Worryingly for Reeves, they include a number of ministers unhappy at her performance. In the increasingly febrile mood at Westminster, even moderate Labour MPs are now saying Starmer should sack her. If she stays, they reason, she will worsen the PM's poll ratings – languishing at an abysmal 46 per cent in the latest YouGov survey. But would Starmer have the guts to ditch his Chancellor barely a year after their landslide general election victory? Absolutely not – and the reason why, I can reveal, is breathtakingly cynical. One senior party figure tells me: 'Number 10 needs her. She is absorbing all the blame for our problems, and therefore diverting it from the PM. 'Whether it's in the rural areas over her decision to bring in inheritance tax for farmers, or with pensioners over winter fuel, it's Rachel's name that comes up on the doorstep every time, not Keir's. 'Keir is an anonymous figure at Parliament. We rarely see him and he's never in the division lobbies, while Rachel is there all the time. She's receiving huge flak from her own colleagues.' But my source also warned fellow Labour MPs: 'Have we learnt nothing from the Tory years? They went into the last election a shattered force and suffered their worst ever defeat.' While few MPs expect Reeves to be sacked or even demoted in the short term, the next big test could be the autumn Budget. Reeves set herself two new fiscal rules in the last Budget: pledging to balance day-to-day spending with tax receipts and to get public debt down as a share of the economy. Another source says: 'The PM may order her to change the rules to avoid tax rises. It could lead to a showdown. If she refuses, she goes. If she agrees to change them, her last scrap of respectability is gone and she will be a lame duck. If taxes go up, it's hard to see how she could limp on for much longer.' After the Budget, Labour faces the Welsh Assembly and Scottish Parliament elections in May. Reform are expecting to capture Wales, a traditional Labour stronghold. A senior government figure says: 'If the local elections are a disaster, Keir will need to blame someone. There'll be yet another 'reset' and I think he'll throw Rachel under a bus if he hasn't already. He will pledge a new direction with a new Chancellor.' The favourite would be Pat McFadden, the dour Cabinet Office minister. But if Tuesday's vote is dramatically lost – now thought to be unlikely after the rebels won a raft of concessions – Reeves would be in dire trouble, as in fiscal terms the Government would be holed below the waterline. Reeves' own political hero is Gordon Brown. She will no doubt be aware of his infamous quip that there are two types of Chancellor: those who fail and those who get out just in time. A mere 11 months after she entered the Treasury, most Labour MPs – to say nothing of the country at large – have already decided which one of those she is.
Arab News
9 hours ago
- Business
- Arab News
Surge in conflicts fuels extreme poverty: World Bank
WASHINGTON: Conflicts and related fatalities have more than tripled since the early 2000s, fueling extreme poverty, the World Bank said in fragile and conflict-affected regions have become 'the epicenter of global poverty and food insecurity, a situation increasingly shaped by the frequency and intensity of conflict,' the bank added in a new year, 421 million people get by on less than $3 a day in places hit by conflict or instability — a situation of extreme poverty — and the number is poised to hit 435 million by attention has been focused on conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East for the past three years, said World Bank Group chief economist Indermit 'half of the countries facing conflict or instability today have been in such conditions for 15 years or more,' he 39 economies are classified as facing such conditions, and 21 of them are in active conflict, the Washington-based development lender list includes Ukraine, Somalia, South Sudan and the West Bank and also includes Iraq although not report flagged that moves to prevent conflict can bring high returns, with timely interventions being 'far more cost-effective than responding after violence erupts.'It also said that some of these economies have advantages that could be used to reignite growth, noting that places like Zimbabwe, Mozambique and the Democratic Republic of Congo are rich in minerals key to clean tech like electric vehicles and solar panels.'Economic stagnation — rather than growth — has been the norm in economies hit by conflict and instability over the past decade and a half,' said Ayhan Kose, World Bank Group deputy chief bank's report noted that high-intensity conflicts, which kill more than 150 per million people, are typically followed by a cumulative fall of around 20 percent in GDP per capita after five years.
The Guardian
11 hours ago
- Business
- The Guardian
Rising poverty in conflict zones ‘causes a billion people to go hungry'
Extreme poverty is accelerating in 39 countries affected by war and conflict, leaving more than a billion people to go hungry, according to the World Bank. Civil wars and confrontations between nations, mostly in Africa, have set back economic growth and reduced the incomes of more than a billion people, 'driving up extreme poverty faster than anywhere else', the Washington-based body said. Underscoring the breadth of conflicts beyond the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Gaza wars, it said the 39 developing economies classified as being in fragile and conflict-affected situations are plagued by instability and weak institutions, 'hindering their ability to attain the robust, sustained economic growth needed for development'. In its first assessment of conflict zones since the Covid-19 pandemic began in 2020, the World Bank urged western governments to step up support for war-torn countries to end the conflicts and rebuild vital institutions. Since 2020 the level of national income per head of population has shrunk by an average of 1.8% a year in the affected countries, while it has expanded by 2.9% in other developing economies, the report found. The World Bank, which lends to poor nations to promote stable economic growth, said acute hunger was increasing and development goals set by the United Nations were now 'further out of reach'. The report said: 'This year, 421 million people are struggling on less than $3 a day in economies afflicted by conflict or instability – more than in the rest of the world combined. That number is projected to rise to 435 million, or nearly 60% of the world's extreme poor, by 2030.' The number of deaths in wars and conflicts across the world was stable before the 2008 banking crisis, which forced many developing countries to cut back welfare and education programmes to pay for rising debt payments. The report said the average number of such fatalities was about 50,000 between 2000 and 2004 and even lower between 2005 and 2008, but then there was an increase to more than 150,000 in 2014. Since the pandemic the number of deaths in conflict has averaged 200,000, reaching more than 300,000 in 2022. 'For the last three years, the world's attention has been on the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, and this focus has now intensified,' said Indermit Gill, the World Bank Group's chief economist. 'Yet more than 70% of people suffering from conflict and instability are Africans. Untreated, these conditions become chronic. Half of the countries facing conflict or instability today have been in such conditions for 15 years or more. Misery on this scale is inevitably contagious.' He said of the 39 economies currently classified as facing conflict or instability, 21 are in active conflict. Several major donors to investment programmes across the developing world have reduced their funding in recent years, including the UK and the US. Sign up to Business Today Get set for the working day – we'll point you to all the business news and analysis you need every morning after newsletter promotion Some philanthropic organisations, including the Bill Gates Foundation, have said they cannot increase funding to fill gaps left by governments, leaving many countries to scramble for funds to pay loan interest payments. According to the report, the extreme-poverty rate has fallen to 6% on average across all developing world countries. However, in economies facing conflict or instability the rate is nearly 40%. The 39 countries have a rate of national income per head of $1,500 (£1,282) a year, 'which has barely budged since 2010 – even as GDP per capita has more than doubled to an average of $6,900 in other developing economies,' the report said. Joining the army of local militia can also be an attractive option for young men and women. In 2022, the latest year for which such data was available, more than 270 million people were of working age in these economies, yet fewer than half were employed. 'The global community must pay greater attention to the plight of these economies,' said M Ayhan Kose, the World Bank Group's deputy chief economist. 'Jumpstarting growth and development here will not be easy, but it can be done – and it has been done before. With targeted policies and stronger international support, policymakers can prevent conflict, strengthen governance, accelerate growth, and create jobs.'
Bloomberg
12 hours ago
- Business
- Bloomberg
Economists Raise Growth Outlook for Canada as Tariff Threats Ease
Analysts boosted their forecasts for economic growth in Canada this year as fears of a drawn-out trade dispute with the US fade. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg say output will rise at a 1.4% annual pace in 2025, up from 1.2% expected last month. At that rate, Canada's economy would trail only the US among Group of Seven countries.
