Latest news with #economicresilience
Times of Oman
a day ago
- Business
- Times of Oman
India's economy and exports seen resilient despite the geo-political developments in West Asia
New Delhi: The limited trade exposure to Israel and Iran, coupled with proactive engagement on infrastructure and technology, ensures that the ongoing conflict does not impact India's economic ambitions. As the world navigates an increasingly unpredictable geopolitical landscape, India offers a rare blend of economic resilience and policy foresight, anchoring its role as a stable force in the global economy. The global economy in 2025 continues to be clouded by geopolitical volatility, tariff tensions, and region-specific conflicts. Yet, amid the storm, India stands out as an exception, demonstrating resilience and stability in both economic performance and external trade. The deepening crisis in West Asia, particularly between Israel and Iran, has had little to no visible impact on India's economic trajectory or its export performance. Supported by robust fundamentals and prudent policymaking, the Indian economy has not only withstood external shocks but also shown encouraging growth signals across sectors. Indian Economy Remains Steady Amid Global Uncertainty Despite the global uncertainty stemming from geopolitical conflicts, trade restrictions, and financial tightening in developed economies, the Indian economy continues to expand steadily. According to the latest data, India's GDP growth in Q4 of 2024–25 has remained strong, signalling the continuation of a resilient growth path. The economy has benefited from a confluence of factors such as macroeconomic stability, effective fiscal management, and growing domestic demand. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) has reached a three-year high in 2024-25, reflecting strong investor confidence in India's long-term potential. In the current year, 2025-26, the April FDI inflows were at USD 8.8 billion, manufacturing and business services accounted for half of the gross FDI inflows. Simultaneously, India's merchandise exports have touched an all-time high in 2024-25, contributing positively to the current account and boosting industrial production. India's exports grew at 2.7% in the month of May 2025, showing significant resilience despite global headwinds. Inflation, a key concern for many economies, has eased significantly in India, falling to a seven-year low due to well-managed food supplies, lower core inflation, and the Reserve Bank of India's calibrated policy stance. GST collections also hit an all-time high in May 2025, underlining robust consumption and formal sector expansion. On the capital markets front, Indian equities have performed steadily despite external pressures, supported by domestic inflows and improving corporate earnings. As India enters the new fiscal year, expectations of a good monsoon, rising rural demand, and improved credit flows to consumers and producers are poised to reinforce growth momentum. Private Sector Gains and Rural Boost Reinforce Momentum India's private sector activity surged in June 2025, hitting a 14-month high, a clear indication of expansion in the services and manufacturing sectors. The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) reached 58.4, while the services PMI climbed to 60.7 — a 10-month high in June 2025. This uptick is attributed to strong domestic demand, increasing export orders, and favourable cost conditions for inputs. Enterprises across both sectors reported not only improved sales and higher new export orders but also increased hiring, a sign of expanding production capacities and confidence in business prospects. With inflationary pressures softening, firms are better positioned to maintain pricing power while offering competitive goods and services globally. In parallel, the rural economy is also showing promising signs. By June 20, 2025, Kharif sowing had increased by 10% over the same period last year, reaching 13.2 million hectares. The enhanced progress of the monsoon has particularly benefitted crops like rice and pulses, ensuring greater income support for rural households. While cotton sowing has slightly declined, the broader trend points toward an encouraging agricultural season. Strong Outlook for 2025–26 Amid External Headwinds S&P Global Ratings recently upgraded India's GDP growth forecast for FY2025–26 to 6.5%, citing favourable macroeconomic conditions such as a normal monsoon, declining global oil prices, and improved financial conditions. The report also notes that India's growth will continue to be driven by domestic demand, both consumption and investment, even as global exports face a slowdown due to weak external demand. While concerns remain over the sluggish global trade environment, India's well-diversified export portfolio and growing services trade offer a cushion. Additionally, the government's continued push toward infrastructure investment, ease of doing business, and Make-in-India initiatives are expected to strengthen the domestic industrial base and improve export competitiveness. No Impact of West Asia Conflict on India's Exports Despite the escalated hostilities between Israel and Iran, there has been no significant impact on India's exports to West Asia. This continuity can be attributed to India's well-managed port infrastructure, diversified export destinations, and strong bilateral mechanisms. Concerns over crude oil price volatility, often linked to Middle Eastern conflicts, have also been downplayed. Analysts believe that short-term fluctuations in oil prices are unlikely to have a major impact on India's macroeconomic stability, especially since India maintains adequate strategic reserves and benefits from hedging practices. These are temporary, event-driven fluctuations, they are unlikely to alter the long-term trajectory of India's energy or trade policies. Limited Trade Exposure to Israel and Iran A closer look at India's bilateral trade data further confirms that India's overall economic exposure to the Israel-Iran conflict remains limited. India's total trade with Israel and Iran during 2024–25 stood at approximately $3.7 billion each — a modest fraction of India's overall trade basket, which crossed $824 billion last fiscal 2024-25 India's exports to Iran primarily include rice, engineering goods , and petroleum products. On the other hand, exports to Israel are more diversified into gems and jewellery, engineering goods and electronic goods. On the import side, India majorly sources electrical machinery and precious stones from Israel. Imports from Iran are primarily agricultural and natural, comprising fruits, minerals & oil, and chemicals. Given the relatively narrow base of imports and exports with these countries, any disruption, even if it occurs, would have only a limited effect on India's aggregate trade flows. Strategic Engagement and Regional Connectivity India's relations with both Israel and Iran are not just transactional but strategically nuanced. In April 2025, India signed a revised agreement with Israel for agriculture cooperation, focusing on advanced technologies, R&D, and productivity enhancement. The agreement aims to establish more Centres of Excellence and bolster water-use efficiency and food processing , steps that have the potential to raise farmer incomes and improve product quality. With Iran, India's strategic interests are most visibly tied to the Chabahar Port Project. In May 2024, India and Iran inked a 10-year agreement for the operation of the Shahid Beheshti terminal at Chabahar Port. Under this arrangement, India Ports Global Limited (IPGL) will invest approximately USD 120 million in equipment and operations, and an additional USD 250 million in credit lines for other mutually agreed-upon infrastructure projects. This partnership holds immense potential for improving regional connectivity, especially toward Afghanistan and Central Asia, and strengthening India's presence in the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC). Chabahar's growing significance offsets any perceived short-term trade disturbances. Conclusions In conclusions, India's macroeconomic stability and foreign trade momentum remain intact, despite the geopolitical turbulence in West Asia. The country has managed to insulate itself from the adverse external environment through diversification, strategic autonomy, and consistent economic reforms. With rising private sector activity, strong agricultural output, resilient exports, and record-breaking GST collections, India is well-positioned to continue its growth path in FY2025–26.
Yahoo
2 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Jim Balsillie donates $5 million to Wilfrid Laurier University to kick start digital sovereignty
Jim Balsillie, the Canadian businessman and philanthropist, has donated $5 million to Wilfrid Laurier University for the establishment of a digital governance initiative to build economic resilience and digital sovereignty. 'The nature and the structure of the global economy and global security has shifted foundationally in the last 30 years in a degree and rapidity that's unprecedented in mankind,' said Balsillie in an interview. 'And if you want to be a sovereign and secure and prosperous nation, you need the capacity for navigating that on a front-footed basis. So, this investment is all about that.' In a news release, the university in Waterloo, Ont., said Canada needs to 'shape policy and increase productivity amid growing threats to sovereignty and security.' It said the Balsillie donation will go toward setting up a legal advisory centre that tackles international trade and technology governance, and establishing professional training programs and a proposed graduate degree that focuses on 'law, digital sovereignty and global technology governance.' 'This is about building capacity to manage the expertise into these realms that are digital, whether it's AI, data, blockchain currencies, intellectual property, trade agreements, all of these things are the realms that this is contended, and Canada has had an eroding prosperity, it's had an eroding sovereignty because the terrain of protecting and advancing those is the digital realm,' said Balsillie, the former co-CEO of Research in Motion, the company that developed the Blackberry. He said the digital initiative is a 'natural addition' to the school, which is also home to the Balsillie School of International Affairs, a joint project of Laurier, the University of Waterloo and the Centre for International Governance and Innovation. Deborah MacLatchy, the president and vice-chancellor of Wilfrid Laurier, said the funding will 'stand up' the work students and faculty are doing on the topic of the digital future. While figures aren't yet known, the university hopes to add faculty and more students because of the new research and educational initiative. 'We're hearing a lot from companies, from government, about their capacity needs, meaning that they just don't feel that they have all the internal expertise or the up-and-coming expertise of students and grad students who have experience in this area,' said MacLatchy. 'And this gift will really allow us to really take a take a run at this in a way that will be unique across the country.' The hope is that other Canadian universities will eventually follow Laurier's lead, doing more research and education in the area. The issue of digital sovereignty, said Ann Fitz-Gerald, director of the Balsillie School of International Affairs, is 'about taking control of a state or any organization's digital destiny and autonomy.' This includes not just corporate data security or intellectual property or cross-border data transfer but also issues of national security, Fitz-Gerald said. 'There's a big policy shift towards the intangibles from the tangibles, and we need to make sure policymakers worldwide, not just in Canada, have the knowledge and skill sets to operate in this space,' Fitz-Gerald said. So much of what happens in a modern society, from immigration to business to justice, happens in the digital world and is driven by data. And so Balsillie's donation, Fitz-Gerald said, will help position Canada and Wilfrid Laurier and the Waterloo region at the forefront of that economic, social and political revolution. Indeed, as data can be siphoned off by corporate giants to aid foreign economic development, Canada could wind up being a loser unless it builds expertise in digital sovereignty. 'The best way that I have come to be able to explain it is that we have had, for time immemorial, a policy orientation and governance structures that are fit for a tangibles world. We now live in an intangibles world,' said Fitz-Gerald. 'We want to be able to manage its development and have a real … say in its safe and responsible development, and the safety and responsibility relates to the preservation of our sovereignty and national security and prosperity.' 'Fear and gratitude': Iconic photo captures Canada's role in a forgotten war Canada's first evacuation flight leaves Middle East amid Israel-Iran strikes Our website is the place for the latest breaking news, exclusive scoops, longreads and provocative commentary. Please bookmark and sign up for our daily newsletter, Posted, here.
National Post
2 days ago
- Business
- National Post
Jim Balsillie donates $5 million to Wilfrid Laurier University to kick start digital sovereignty
Jim Balsillie, the Canadian businessman and philanthropist, has donated $5 million to Wilfrid Laurier University for the establishment of a digital governance initiative to build economic resilience and digital sovereignty. Article content 'The nature and the structure of the global economy and global security has shifted foundationally in the last 30 years in a degree and rapidity that's unprecedented in mankind,' said Balsillie in an interview. 'And if you want to be a sovereign and secure and prosperous nation, you need the capacity for navigating that on a front-footed basis. So, this investment is all about that.' Article content Article content In a news release, the university in Waterloo, Ont., said Canada needs to 'shape policy and increase productivity amid growing threats to sovereignty and security.' It said the Balsillie donation will go toward setting up a legal advisory centre that tackles international trade and technology governance, and establishing professional training programs and a proposed graduate degree that focuses on 'law, digital sovereignty and global technology governance.' Article content Article content 'This is about building capacity to manage the expertise into these realms that are digital, whether it's AI, data, blockchain currencies, intellectual property, trade agreements, all of these things are the realms that this is contended, and Canada has had an eroding prosperity, it's had an eroding sovereignty because the terrain of protecting and advancing those is the digital realm,' said Balsillie, the former co-CEO of Research in Motion, the company that developed the Blackberry. Article content Article content He said the digital initiative is a 'natural addition' to the school, which is also home to the Balsillie School of International Affairs, a joint project of Laurier, the University of Waterloo and the Centre for International Governance and Innovation. Article content Article content Deborah MacLatchy, the president and vice-chancellor of Wilfrid Laurier, said the funding will 'stand up' the work students and faculty are doing on the topic of the digital future. While figures aren't yet known, the university hopes to add faculty and more students because of the new research and educational initiative. Article content 'We're hearing a lot from companies, from government, about their capacity needs, meaning that they just don't feel that they have all the internal expertise or the up-and-coming expertise of students and grad students who have experience in this area,' said MacLatchy. 'And this gift will really allow us to really take a take a run at this in a way that will be unique across the country.'
Zawya
3 days ago
- Business
- Zawya
Djibouti: Staff Concluding Statement of the 2025 Article IV Mission
Djibouti has been navigating regional tensions well, with robust growth, moderate inflation, and recovering reserves. In response to global uncertainties and domestic debt challenges, the authorities plan significant fiscal consolidation, including leveraging state-owned enterprises (SOE) dividends meaningfully, and advancing creditor dialogue. The authorities remain dedicated to investing in human capital and creating favorable investment conditions for job creation. Djibouti's economic resilience and contribution to regional stability Djibouti helps maintain regional stability by supporting maritime security and facilitating humanitarian responses during crises. Djibouti's GDP per capita has effectively doubled over the past decade thanks to significant investments that have contributed to the modernization of the economy. However, declining government revenues and increasing debt service have placed considerable strain on public finances, leading to unsustainable levels of public debt and diminishing reserves. Growth has not created enough jobs in the formal sector, while fiscal space to finance development needs is limited. The authorities are leveraging Djibouti's growth resilience to advance fiscal consolidation and rebuild reserves. Growth is expected to have exceeded 6.5 percent in 2024 due to increased transshipments amid Red Sea tensions, while moderate international food and energy prices kept inflation in check. The government deficit was reduced from 3.5 percent of GDP in 2023 to 2.6 percent in 2024 following a brief period of fiscal overruns and deficit monetization, and reserves have begun to recover partially offsetting the decline observed since late 2023, though they remain below the monetary base. The outlook is positive but subject to risks in an uncertain global context. Growth is projected to remain dynamic at around 6 percent this year and to continue over the medium term, albeit at a slower pace. Ethiopia's robust economy is expected to boost Djibouti's port activities; however, fiscal consolidation and the phasing out of large-scale investments may temper growth. Key risks include regional conflicts potentially increasing migration and affecting social stability amid a constrained fiscal space, and trade policy shifts that could depreciate the dollar and Djibouti franc, enhancing service exports but also raising inflation. Nonetheless, it is worth noting that Djibouti has successfully navigated several shocks over the past few years, including COVID-19, the 2022 Tigray crisis, the Ukraine war, and the 2024 Red Sea maritime disruptions. Leveraging resilience for fiscal sustainability and rebuilding reserves In the face of high global and regional uncertainty, Djibouti needs to quickly strengthen its economic resilience by restoring debt sustainability, safeguarding the currency board, and fostering inclusive growth. To this end, the authorities intend to strengthen fiscal consolidation and enhance financial transparency and governance of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) to unlock sustainable and meaningful dividend contributions to the national budget, restore reserves, and encourage private sector growth while protecting vulnerable populations. Durable fiscal consolidation is essential for restoring debt sustainability. The substantial fiscal adjustment frontloaded in the 2025 budget and the balanced budget target for 2026 onward are welcome steps. To sustain progress, it is essential that all governmental entities endorse annual fiscal targets that align with a medium-term fiscal consolidation strategy. Success depends on robust expenditure management via the diligent operationalization of the recently approved Public Financial Management Reform Strategy and Action Plan 2024–27. Furthermore, a comprehensive fiscal roadmap should continue to broaden the tax base by enhancing VAT and capital income taxation, rationalizing tax exemptions included in the investment code and the Free Zones regime, and finalizing the digitization of tax agencies. The effective establishment of the tax policy unit remains a priority for accurately assessing tax bases and enhancing tax reform efficiency. Operationalizing the recently created large taxpayer office will also bolster compliance and revenue collection. As Djibouti negotiates new terms for debt liabilities with creditors, well-managed and profitable SOEs can significantly aid national fiscal consolidation and restore reserves at the Central Bank of Djibouti (CBD), particularly following the dissolution of the Sovereign Wealth Fund (SWF). Building on ongoing efforts to improve SOE transparency and governance, it will be critical for the Executive Secretariat in charge of the State Portfolio (SEPE) to collect all SOEs' financial statements and monitor their performance. Swiftly implementing the Code of Good Governance is also essential for establishing a more transparent dividend policy tied to SOE performance, thereby mobilizing dividends more consistently and meaningfully for the budget, improving SOE efficiency and services, and appropriately right-size them. Additionally, fiscal transparency can be strengthened by discontinuing financial settlement practices for clearing government arrears with SOEs, and by improving coordination among the Ministry of Budget, line ministries, and SEPE for more effective budget risk management. Alongside fiscal consolidation, completing ongoing debt negotiations and addressing outstanding arrears with external partners are critical for debt sustainability. Equally important is implementing binding limits on borrowing for the central government, SOEs, including their participation in public-private partnerships, and ensuring these are enforced by the Public Sector Debt Committee. The mission is encouraged by the recent recovery in reserves and urges continued progress. To strengthen the currency board, the authorities plan to amend the CBD law to enhance its autonomy, which will help sustain reserves, exchange rate, and inflation stability. They also plan to introduce reserve requirements as a prudential tool, with implementation expected to follow a phased approach. Additionally, under MENAFATF's enhanced monitoring, Djibouti is reforming its AML/CFT framework, improving the business climate, and enhancing oversight of the banking sector due to its significant offshore component and rising government exposure. To facilitate policy making, the authorities are leveraging technical assistance provided by the IMF to enhance their coverage and quality of statistics relevant to surveillance, with a focus on national accounts, the fiscal and external sectors. Advancing inclusivity through private sector development and employment creation The government aims to foster economic growth and social equity. They aim to improve the existing targeting of the current fuel subsidy scheme. In order to create a more effective and equitable social protection system and reduce budget exposure to international energy prices, the authorities should gradually replace the current subsidy system with the strengthening of targeted cash transfers to the most vulnerable households, relying on the national social register. To attract investments and create jobs, they are enhancing access to education and job training under the 2021–35 education master plan. They aim to diversify the economy in sectors such as logistics and connectivity, tourism, agribusiness, and fisheries. To enable economic diversification, it is essential to develop a comprehensive roadmap with specific actions aimed at enhancing access to finance, streamlining administrative procedures, and expanding reliable and affordable internet services and electricity, including through increased bill collection, technical efficiency, and the adoption of cost-efficient renewable energy. These initiatives will enhance Djibouti's business environment, which is already supported by a stable macroeconomic climate, a currency board, ports infrastructure, and connectivity to Ethiopia's large market, all aligning with the objectives of Djibouti Vision 2035. 'The mission team expresses deep appreciation to the Djiboutian authorities and other counterparts for their warm hospitality, excellent cooperation and candid discussions, and looks forward to continuing close engagement.' Distributed by APO Group on behalf of International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Globe and Mail
3 days ago
- Business
- Globe and Mail
A new treaty could stabilize Canada's relationship with the U.S.
Thomas d'Aquino is the founding CEO of the Business Council of Canada and author of Private Power Public Purpose - Adventures in Business, Politics and the Arts. Prime Minister Mark Carney has rightfully and boldly laid out a vision for Canada to achieve greater economic and security resilience in the face of an 'existential threat' from the United States. This demands a posture of greater independence from our southern colossus. It also requires a high degree of sang froid and diplomatic finesse in protecting Canada's national interest. The hard reality is that we cannot fully decouple ourselves from our economic and security interdependence with the Americans even as we vigorously pursue new partnerships around the world. So how best can we achieve a higher degree of certainty in our bilateral relationship while having to come to terms with a transactional president? Ever since Mr. Carney and President Donald Trump conducted their first telephone conversation on March 28 and spoke of a comprehensive economic and security package – conversations that have been since ongoing – I have been mulling the idea of a bilateral treaty binding our two countries. Radical? Counterintuitive? By all means. But here's why it merits consideration. According to Article VI of the U.S. Constitution, '...all the authority of the United States, shall be the supreme law of the land.' A Canada-United States Economic and Defence Treaty, endorsed by two-thirds of the U.S. Senate, would give the bilateral relationship a higher degree of formality and recognition. Of far more consequence than an agreement or pact, it would also provide Canada with more certainty during and after the Trump presidency, assuming, of course, that the terms of the treaty would be advantageously negotiated by Canada. From a Canadian perspective, what might be a plausible pitch to the President? I have tried to answer this question by imagining what I would say in the opening of the conversation. Opinion: Diversify from the U.S. for defence? This must include diversifying from Big Tech Opinion: Mark Carney is walking a high-stakes foreign-policy tightrope between Canada's values and interests Mr. President, one of the most important elections in Canadian history has just concluded. Buoyed by a surge of patriotism not seen since the Second World War, our citizens have affirmed their love of country and confidence in our future as a proud and independent people. Our confidence is rooted in the knowledge that we possess powerful democratic institutions, a respected judiciary, an enormous land mass rich in resources and surrounded by three oceans, and one of the most diverse and skilled populations on earth. We have also been blessed to share a continent with our long-time friend and ally, the United States of America. In a conversation you and Mr. Carney had on March 28, it was agreed 'to begin comprehensive negotiations about a new economic and security relationship immediately following the election.' The Canadian election now behind us, here are some preliminary ideas on how new life can be breathed into this refreshed relationship. You are well aware of the highly integrated nature of our two economies. It has yielded great mutual benefits in terms of growth and jobs. As a businessman, you appreciate the staggering achievement of our two countries exchanging nearly US$1-trillion annually in goods and services. We are indispensable customers of each other. You are also well aware of our mutual commitment to the defence of North America. In the troubled and dangerous world, Canadians, and I believe, Americans, would welcome rock-solid, mutually beneficial commitments to our common future. With this in mind, I am interested in exploring with you the negotiation of a historic Canada-United States Economic and Defence Treaty that would benefit from your leadership and the support of Canada's Parliament and the Congress of the United States. The cornerstones of this treaty would be the affirmation of our eternal friendship, the respect of our territorial sovereignty, and our mutual embrace of the rule of law, including the binding resolution of disputes. The focus of the treaty would be on joint approaches to competitiveness, economic development, and defence and security cooperation, keeping in mind the fundamental principle of reciprocity that you are championing - reciprocity beginning with the immediate clearing away of tariffs between our two countries. The treaty would: The treaty is not meant to be a substitute for the United States- Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) – an initiative that you took the leadership in successfully negotiating in your first term. A renegotiated USMCA will no doubt continue to serve all three countries, especially in areas where our continental supply chains are closely integrated. In proposing Canada-United States cooperation beyond the USMCA, Canada is mindful that the sovereignty of the United States and Canada must be respected. Canadians and Americans would expect nothing less. The treaty would acknowledge the independence of each of our countries in the domains of foreign policy and international commerce while respecting the long tradition of consultation between our two governments. As for China, I appreciate your concerns about the failure of the Chinese government to adhere to World Trade Organization liberalization protocols and to respect the principles of trade reciprocity. Canada will work with like-minded allies to press for reforms within China to alleviate these imbalances. In the defence domain, there is overwhelming public support in Canada for bolstering our armed forces. In addition to our new F-35 fleet, we will move forward on new submarine and icebreaker capability as well as surface combat vessels, artillery, radar, and drones. Canada's commitment to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), of which we are a founding member, is unequivocal. Mr. Carney has said Canada will meet its 2 per cent of GDP expenditure in defence spending this year and has expressed interest in partnering on the U.S. anti-missile defence shield. Canada's involvement would be consistent with our long-time commitment to NORAD and to protecting the continent's northern approaches from potential hostile attack. Mr. President, each of your predecessors in modern times has spoken of the uniqueness of the Canada-United States relationship. Among the most memorable are these words from John F. Kennedy: 'Geography has made us neighbours. History has made us friends. Economics has made us partners. And necessity has made us allies.' In the troubled and dangerous world of today, these truths resonate more than ever. Let's seize this opportunity and shape a new and exciting chapter in the historic relationship between our two peoples. The result will be a stronger Canada and a stronger America.
