Latest news with #SP500
Yahoo
2 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
S&P 500 at new highs: Strategist says it's time to take profits
The S&P 500 (^GSPC) is trading at a new record high, but Girard chief investment officer Timothy Chubb thinks it may be time for investors to take some money off the table. Find out why in the video above. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Market Domination Overtime here. At the end of the day, I think this is a good time to take some profits. I mean, we have digested so much really since April 2nd, um from, you know, data to tariffs, you know, ultimately a strong earnings season, everything that you, you know, just been going through. But um, the market is starting to lose some steam. It's kind of been this melt up over the last several weeks. Uh we've seen breadth within the market really start to narrow quite a bit, as you're just discussing with the magnificent 7. Uh, really the AI trade has been, you know, keeping this uh, you know, rally going. And I wouldn't be surprised as we kind of turn the page into the second half of this year, uh investors kind of take a step back and, and, you know, again, take some of those profits and and look to um, ultimately the, you know, potentially diversify a little bit with fixed income, especially where, you know, rates are at currently. Hey, Q2 earnings season, those on deck, Tim, do you think that could, could that prove to actually be another positive catalyst for the market? It could be. I mean, earnings revisions were, were, you know, uh revised down quite a bit. Um we've started to see that, you know, moving the other direction more recently, but um, there's still so many cross currents that, you know, may ultimately be impacting some of these companies that removed guidance. I think about 20% of the S&P 500 uh removed guidance for the year. So uh, the bar might be a little lower than uh ultimately, you know, needs to be and and perhaps we, you know, jump over it. Um, as Julie mentioned, you know, it's going to be the uh lowest from a growth rate standpoint in quite some time, but um, still positive momentum. I think the AI capex story and and uh, you know, is really a durable uh investment uh opportunity for uh, you know, us as as well as, you know, these, these companies, you know, trying to raise and make sure that the rails of the AI railroad are are built as quickly as possible. What did you make, Tim? I'm just curious, you know, we talk about trade and tariffs a lot of course, as we should. So President Trump comes out today, uh throwing haymakers at Canada, clearly not happy, right? Making, making some, some threats there, saying, listen, new tariffs are on the way. What's interesting, Tim, about that is caught people off guard. The market did react a bit initially, but then you end the day up all, all green here, right? I mean every popular average in the green. What does that tell us, Tim, as investors? I, I think there's some complacency. I mean, this, this V-shaped recovery has been so hated, right? Um, you know, positioning was offside by a lot of the hedge funds, you know, we've seen that adjust a little bit, but, you know, ultimately it's been, you know, sort of this classic dual, you know, pain trade where we've had a short squeeze higher and then we've had the narrowing leadership more recently. Um, and ultimately, I, you know, I think, you know, retail certainly charging this uh, you know, rally quite a bit. Uh, but people are just, you know, fear missing out. And if we do get a pretty solid earning season here in Q2, maybe some of the tariff impact is not quite uh, you know, baked in the cake uh, just yet for, for some of these companies and and a relatively, uh, I'd say sanguin, you know, outlook for the back half of this year, uh markets continued, you know, could continue to grind higher from here. But, you know, I think the, the key point is why we're back at all-time highs is that we haven't had traded headlines. And so, uh if we start to see this, you know, as we get closer to, you know, July 9th, uh ultimately creep back into, you know, the, the um headlines quite a bit more, um I think the equity markets are vulnerable sort of priced for perfection and in a lot of ways and uh again, it's just been, you know, somewhat fragile, you know, just given the narrowing breath that we've seen recently.
Yahoo
3 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Stocks usually rise by 10% a year. Those days may be over.
Americans are wise to invest in the stock market, we are told, because stocks have yielded historical gains of about 10% a year. But not, perhaps, this year. Many analysts predict that the S&P 500 index will end 2025 essentially flat, or with only meager gains. In one June 25 roundup, Yahoo Finance charts several strategists with year-end projections that put the benchmark S&P index between 5,600 and 6,100. Those figures fall below, or only slightly above, where the S&P started the year, around 5,900. Some forecasts range higher, and forecasters have been growing more bullish about American stocks in 2025. But anyone who predicts double-digit returns this year risks being branded an outlier. If big investment firms expect the stock market to finish 2025 more or less where it started, how should armchair investors react? Is the investment landscape shifting beneath our feet? First, let's explore the reasoning behind those gloomy forecasts. The stock market opened strong in 2025. The broad S&P index sat near its all-time high, following two years of conspicuous growth. That growth spurt, alone, was enough to seed caution in forecasters. A surging S&P means stock prices are relatively high. Some stocks are overpriced. Bargains are fewer. The index may not have that much room to grow. 'I believe that, given the strong returns over the past two years, some lower returns are expected,' said Eric Teal, chief investment officer at Comerica Bank. Comerica's own projections call for the S&P 500 to end the year at 6,400, a number toward the high end of forecasts. Wall Street prognosticators have been bearish on stocks in 2025 because of one overarching theme: uncertainty. 'It's all the volatile actors in our current economy,' said Catherine Valega, a certified financial planner near Boston. 'It's like you don't know from one day to the next: Do we have tariffs? Do we not have tariffs?' It's hard to predict how President Trump's import taxes will affect prices, and thus, inflation. The trade war, coupled with Trump's immigration crackdown, could slow economic growth. Recession fears are heightened. The Federal Reserve may or may not ease interest rates in response. 'We're assuming that we sidestep a recession, that interest rate cuts are on the horizon, but not immediate,' Teal said, reflecting a common view on Wall Street. 'And so, there is an element of cautious optimism that I think is in the market, but a high degree of uncertainty and macro policy unknowns that will keep markets contained.' There's another big reason, analysts say, why year-end forecasts for the S&P 500 are trending low: Forecasters tend to err on the conservative side. 'The analysts have historically kind of underestimated S&P 500 returns,' said Kristy Akullian, head of iShares investment strategy, Americas, at BlackRock. 'People don't want to stick their necks out with a bold prediction and be wrong.' That impulse, she said, also explains why stock forecasts tend to bunch together. No one wants to stand out. 'It's hard being an outlier,' said David Meier, a senior analyst at Motley Fool. Meier cites yet another reason why stock forecasters tend to aim low: 'Being negative, let's call it bearish, tends to get more clicks,' he said. Readers gravitate to distressing news about stocks. Now, let's move on to the practical question: If the S&P 500 might not gain much ground in 2025, what should ordinary investors do about it? The easy answer, of course, is to do nothing. Stock market projections for next month, or next year, shouldn't matter much to an investor who is in for the long haul, advisers say. And that advice applies to just about everyone: If you aren't in for the long haul, experts advise, stocks might not be for you. 'If you need funds soon, don't have it invested,' said Randy Bruns, a certified financial planner in Naperville, Illinois. 'If you don't need the funds for 15 years, stop looking at the volatility.' Market downturns tend to be brief. Recessions are shorter than they seem. Anyone who is saving for retirement, or for other long-term goals, can generally ride them out. 'If you have the luxury of being a long-term investor, be one,' Akullian said. There is, however, a longer and more nuanced answer to the question of how to respond to those conservative projections for stocks in 2025. It involves this complicating factor: Stock market forecasts are also surprisingly conservative for 2035. Vanguard, the investment firm, predicts the U.S. stock market as a whole will rise by an underwhelming 3.8% to 5.8% a year over the next 10 years. 'Growth' stocks, the likes of Nvidia and Amazon, are projected to rise by only 2.5% to 4.5%: not much faster than inflation. Those forecasts are based on the idea that many U.S. stocks are overpriced, in essence, and trading above their real value. In Vanguard's analysis, everyday investors who want the gaudy returns they have come to expect from American growth stocks would do well to look elsewhere: Global stocks. Small-cap American stocks, in companies with a lower market value. 'Value' stocks, trading below their intrinsic worth. 'I would say it's time to have a more balanced allocation,' said Teal of Comerica. Bruns, the financial planner, suggests average investors should 'diversify across all the broad asset classes that should comprise a textbook portfolio.' That doesn't mean you should sell all of your Alphabet stocks, experts say. But the time might be right to scrutinize your portfolio. Does it include foreign stocks? Small-cap stocks? Bonds? If not, then you might consider rebalancing your portfolio to make it more diverse. 'The easiest way to do that, if you are a 401(k) contributor, is to change your future allocations,' Valega said. That way, you don't have to tinker with your current investments. Not sure how to rebalance? 'Reach out to your adviser,' Valega said. 'That's what we're there for.' This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Forecasters don't expect much from stocks in 2025. Should you? Sign in to access your portfolio
Globe and Mail
4 hours ago
- Business
- Globe and Mail
The Stock Market Just Did Something for the Sixth Time Since 1957. History Says It Signals a Big Move in the S&P 500 in the Next Year.
Investors have experienced an exceptionally volatile market environment this year. The S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) suffered its fifth-worst two-day decline in history after President Donald Trump announced his "Liberation Day" tariffs in early April, erasing $6.6 trillion in wealth. However, the benchmark index then staged one of its fastest comebacks after Trump paused the most severe tariffs for 90 days and moved to reduce the trade tensions with China that he'd previously ratcheted up. The S&P 500 rose by 6.2% in May, its best performance during that month since 1990. Where to invest $1,000 right now? Our analyst team just revealed what they believe are the 10 best stocks to buy right now. Continue » More impressive, the S&P 500 advanced 20.5% during the two-month period that ended on June 9. Since its inception in 1957, the index has only achieved a two-month return above 20% five times before. And in each of those cases, it delivered substantial additional gains in the next six months and the next year. History suggests the stock market will rocket higher in the next year The S&P 500 is considered the best barometer for the overall U.S. stock market due to its scope and diversity. The index measures the performance of 500 of the largest U.S. companies. Its components span all 11 market sectors and together account for about 80% of domestic equities by market value. The chart below shows the end dates for the five previous two-month periods when the S&P 500 gained 20% or more. It also shows how the index performed during the six-month and 12-month periods that followed them. S&P 500 Achieves 20%-Plus Return in 2 Months Forward 6-Month Return Forward 12-Month Return Feb. 6, 1975 10% 28% Oct. 6, 1982 20% 32% Dec. 7, 1998 11% 19% April 30, 2009 20% 36% May 18, 2020 21% 40% Average 16% 31% Data sources: YCharts, Carson Investment Research. In all five cases, the index kept rising. It gained an average of 16% in the next six months and 31% in the next year. On June 9, the S&P 500 closed at 6,006. If its performance from there matches the historical average: The index will advance by 16% from 6,006 to 6,967 by Dec. 9, 2025. That would be a 14% gain from its current level of 6,125. The index will advance 31% from 6,006 to 7,868 by June 9, 2026. That would be a 28% gain from its current level. Of course, the standard disclaimer applies here: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. But there is no harm in leaning into historical patterns so long as investors maintain a long-term mindset. Trump's tariffs could still derail the stock market again in the coming months The S&P 500 tumbled as much as 19% earlier this year when Trump started making radical changes to U.S. trade policy. The index has nearly recouped those losses and currently trades within a percentage point of its record high. But that does not mean tariffs will have no further impact on the stock market. The tariffs imposed to date have raised the average tax on U.S. imports to its highest level since 1941. Most economists think those duties will raise consumer prices and slow the country's economic growth. In fact, the pre-tariff consensus estimate was that U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) would increase by 2.3% this year, but the post-tariff consensus estimate is that it will increase by just 1.4%, according to Bloomberg. In early July, investors will get fresh monthly data on job openings, payrolls, unemployment, and inflation, and Trump's 90-day pause on his tariffs is due to expire on July 9. The market evidently has high expectations for the economic data considering the rebound the S&P 500 has already experienced, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says Trump is likely to push back his self-imposed deadline to allow for trade negotiations to continue. However, if the economic data disappoints or Trump forges ahead with his draconian tariffs, the stock market could fall sharply. Investors need to keep that possibility in mind when they make decisions. Never buy a stock you are not prepared to hold through volatility. As Warren Buffett once advised, "You've got to be prepared when you buy a stock to have it go down 50%." Should you invest $1,000 in S&P 500 Index right now? Before you buy stock in S&P 500 Index, consider this: The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and S&P 500 Index wasn't one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years. Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $704,676!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $950,198!* Now, it's worth noting Stock Advisor 's total average return is1,048% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to175%for the S&P 500. Don't miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join Stock Advisor. See the 10 stocks » *Stock Advisor returns as of June 23, 2025
Yahoo
4 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Stocks usually rise by 10% a year. Those days may be over.
Americans are wise to invest in the stock market, we are told, because stocks have yielded historical gains of about 10% a year. But not, perhaps, this year. Many analysts predict that the S&P 500 index will end 2025 essentially flat, or with only meager gains. In one June 25 roundup, Yahoo Finance charts several strategists with year-end projections that put the benchmark S&P index between 5,600 and 6,100. Those figures fall below, or only slightly above, where the S&P started the year, around 5,900. Some forecasts range higher, and forecasters have been growing more bullish about American stocks in 2025. But anyone who predicts double-digit returns this year risks being branded an outlier. If big investment firms expect the stock market to finish 2025 more or less where it started, how should armchair investors react? Is the investment landscape shifting beneath our feet? First, let's explore the reasoning behind those gloomy forecasts. The stock market opened strong in 2025. The broad S&P index sat near its all-time high, following two years of conspicuous growth. That growth spurt, alone, was enough to seed caution in forecasters. A surging S&P means stock prices are relatively high. Some stocks are overpriced. Bargains are fewer. The index may not have that much room to grow. 'I believe that, given the strong returns over the past two years, some lower returns are expected,' said Eric Teal, chief investment officer at Comerica Bank. Comerica's own projections call for the S&P 500 to end the year at 6,400, a number toward the high end of forecasts. Wall Street prognosticators have been bearish on stocks in 2025 because of one overarching theme: uncertainty. 'It's all the volatile actors in our current economy,' said Catherine Valega, a certified financial planner near Boston. 'It's like you don't know from one day to the next: Do we have tariffs? Do we not have tariffs?' It's hard to predict how President Trump's import taxes will affect prices, and thus, inflation. The trade war, coupled with Trump's immigration crackdown, could slow economic growth. Recession fears are heightened. The Federal Reserve may or may not ease interest rates in response. 'We're assuming that we sidestep a recession, that interest rate cuts are on the horizon, but not immediate,' Teal said, reflecting a common view on Wall Street. 'And so, there is an element of cautious optimism that I think is in the market, but a high degree of uncertainty and macro policy unknowns that will keep markets contained.' There's another big reason, analysts say, why year-end forecasts for the S&P 500 are trending low: Forecasters tend to err on the conservative side. 'The analysts have historically kind of underestimated S&P 500 returns,' said Kristy Akullian, head of iShares investment strategy, Americas, at BlackRock. 'People don't want to stick their necks out with a bold prediction and be wrong.' That impulse, she said, also explains why stock forecasts tend to bunch together. No one wants to stand out. 'It's hard being an outlier,' said David Meier, a senior analyst at Motley Fool. Meier cites yet another reason why stock forecasters tend to aim low: 'Being negative, let's call it bearish, tends to get more clicks,' he said. Readers gravitate to distressing news about stocks. Now, let's move on to the practical question: If the S&P 500 might not gain much ground in 2025, what should ordinary investors do about it? The easy answer, of course, is to do nothing. Stock market projections for next month, or next year, shouldn't matter much to an investor who is in for the long haul, advisers say. And that advice applies to just about everyone: If you aren't in for the long haul, experts advise, stocks might not be for you. 'If you need funds soon, don't have it invested,' said Randy Bruns, a certified financial planner in Naperville, Illinois. 'If you don't need the funds for 15 years, stop looking at the volatility.' Market downturns tend to be brief. Recessions are shorter than they seem. Anyone who is saving for retirement, or for other long-term goals, can generally ride them out. 'If you have the luxury of being a long-term investor, be one,' Akullian said. There is, however, a longer and more nuanced answer to the question of how to respond to those conservative projections for stocks in 2025. It involves this complicating factor: Stock market forecasts are also surprisingly conservative for 2035. Vanguard, the investment firm, predicts the U.S. stock market as a whole will rise by an underwhelming 3.8% to 5.8% a year over the next 10 years. 'Growth' stocks, the likes of Nvidia and Amazon, are projected to rise by only 2.5% to 4.5%: not much faster than inflation. Those forecasts are based on the idea that many U.S. stocks are overpriced, in essence, and trading above their real value. In Vanguard's analysis, everyday investors who want the gaudy returns they have come to expect from American growth stocks would do well to look elsewhere: Global stocks. Small-cap American stocks, in companies with a lower market value. 'Value' stocks, trading below their intrinsic worth. 'I would say it's time to have a more balanced allocation,' said Teal of Comerica. Bruns, the financial planner, suggests average investors should 'diversify across all the broad asset classes that should comprise a textbook portfolio.' That doesn't mean you should sell all of your Alphabet stocks, experts say. But the time might be right to scrutinize your portfolio. Does it include foreign stocks? Small-cap stocks? Bonds? If not, then you might consider rebalancing your portfolio to make it more diverse. 'The easiest way to do that, if you are a 401(k) contributor, is to change your future allocations,' Valega said. That way, you don't have to tinker with your current investments. Not sure how to rebalance? 'Reach out to your adviser,' Valega said. 'That's what we're there for.' This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Forecasters don't expect much from stocks in 2025. Should you?
Bloomberg
5 hours ago
- Business
- Bloomberg
Five Risks for Stocks That Cloud the Outlook for the Second Half
Some of the world's biggest money managers are wary of chasing the stock rally further in the second half of 2025, bracing for more volatility. Markets are wrapping up a wild six months that saw the S&P 500 plunge 19% from peak to trough, before it recouped those losses. The index closed at a record high on Friday after the ceasefire between Israel and Iran revived the risk-on rally.
