Latest news with #YR4
Yahoo
3 hours ago
- Science
- Yahoo
‘City Killer' Asteroid Won't Hit Earth, But What Happens If It Slams Into The Moon?
Earth has dodged a celestial bullet, but the moon might not be so lucky, and that has scientists keeping their telescopes and minds trained on a massive asteroid called '2024 YR4.' That's not its official name, but more on that later. When it was first discovered, this asteroid had a very small chance of impacting Earth in December of 2032, but later observations concluded the space rock no longer poses any significant risk to our planet. Since then, additional data has helped experts refine the asteroid's potential trajectory and they say the probability of it striking the moon in 2032 has now risen to 4.3%. That's still a very small chance, but there could be some complications for our planet if that collision happens. (MORE: Lego Man's Epic Space Journey) Back To The Beginning 2024 YR4 first caught astronomers' attention in December 2024. It made headlines when its probability of impacting Earth got as high as 3%. It's so far away that it appears as just a tiny glimmer, but using infrared images captured by NASA's James Webb Space Telescope, scientists estimate that it's the size of a 10-story building, about 200 feet in diameter. It's considered a near-Earth asteroid, meaning it's in an orbit that brings it within Earth's region of the solar system. Its size earned the asteroid the nickname 'city killer' since it could cause severe damage to a city or region if it struck Earth. 2024 YR4 is the temporary name given to the rock. While those who discovered it will get to suggest an official name, it could be months or years before that official name is decided by the International Astronomical Union. What Happens If It Strikes The Moon? If this asteroid hits the moon, scientists say it will make impact at a speed of tens of thousands of miles per hour. That would create a huge crater, but more importantly, it could also send fragments of moon rock and granular lunar material flying off the moon. While it's unlikely the Earth would face any significant danger from the lunar strike, that debris could put nearby astronauts at risk, as well as satellites that we depend on for GPS, cellphones, internet and weather forecasting. What about the International Space Station? Well that would be at risk, except that NASA plans to decommission and deorbit the ISS in 2031, a year before the asteroid's potential impact. (MORE: New Images Show Universe Like Never Before) Would We Be Able To See The Collision? The latest calculations from June suggest it's likely the asteroid could hit the near side of the moon, the side pointing towards us. So we could be able to see the once-in-a-lifetime collision here on Earth. Dr. Paul Wiegert, a physics and astronomy professor at Western University told Western News, 'If YR4 hits the moon, it will be the largest asteroid to have hit the moon in about 5,000 years. It's quite a rare event.' Wiegert says, 'People at home will be able to see the explosion with small telescopes or even binoculars.' He also says that if moon rock is launched into space, 'We should also get to see quite a spectacular meteor shower,' within a week of the collision. So What Now? Asteroid 2024 YR4 is currently too far away to detect with space or ground-based telescopes, as it orbits around the sun. But out of sight, does not mean out of mind – NASA expects to make more observations and collect new data when the asteroid's orbit brings it back into Earth's vicinity in 2028. Solve the daily Crossword
New York Post
4 hours ago
- Science
- New York Post
Massive asteroid on potential impact path with the Moon could trigger destructive meteor shower on earth
What happens if an asteroid the size of a 15-story building crashes into the Moon in 2032? While the chances of the newly discovered asteroid 2024 YR4 hitting the Moon in seven years are slim – there is currently a 96% chance it won't happen – an impact of this size would not come without consequences for the Moon, astronauts and spacecraft orbiting Earth. A new study submitted for review by scientists with the University of Western Ontario and Athabasca University in Canada took observations from the James Webb Space Telescope of asteroid 2024 YR4 and used simulations to show how much lunar debris would be ejected out into space, sending pieces of the Moon toward Earth. After its initial discovery late last year, the asteroid appeared to have a small chance of impacting Earth, warranting international attention, and jumping to the highest asteroid threat ever given on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale. By February, more ground-based observations of the asteroid helped clear the threat to Earth, but the Moon still faces a possible impact. 3 Any lunar debris that makes it within Earth's atmosphere could create a meteor shower event over the planet. NASA Earlier this year, NASA's James Webb Space Telescope helped scientists determine that the asteroid is between 175 and 220 feet in diameter. If Asteroid 2024 YR4 crashes into the Moon, it would create a crater more than half a mile in diameter (1 km), becoming the largest impact in about 5,000 years, according to the study. Current calculations show, if it happens, an impact would occur on the Southern Hemisphere. The researchers said this impact would threaten satellites in low-Earth orbit for days or up to a few months, and send a fraction of the ejecta toward Earth. 3 The current impact corridor for 2024 YR4 (yellow) projected on a map of the Moonâs near side from Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter. Any lunar debris that makes it within Earth's atmosphere could create a meteor shower event over the planet. 'The resulting meteor shower could last a few days and be spectacular, though the number of visible meteors somewhat muted by the low entry speed of ejecta,' the research team said. With more than 10,000 active satellites in low-Earth orbit and more than 25,000 pieces of space junk, researchers believe an asteroid strike to the Moon could spell trouble for satellite operators. 3 On March 26, 2025, NASAâs James Webb Space Telescope captured images of asteroid 2024 YR4 that indicate the asteroid is about the size of a 15-story building. NASA 'Given the very large total exposed area for satellites by 2032, it becomes possible that hundreds to thousands of impacts from mm-sized debris ejected by a lunar impact from 2024 YR4 will be experienced across the entire satellite fleet,' the study authors wrote. 'Such impacts may damage satellites, but are small enough to generally not end active missions or cause breakups.' The researchers say material from the Moon could be a 'serious hazard to moon-orbiting spacecraft' such as NASA's Lunar Gateway, a planned orbiting station for astronauts, and an 'even greater danger' to any lunar surface operations. Asteroid 2024 YR4 has moved behind the Sun, limiting any new observations until 2028. Scientists say those new observations in a few years will help improve lunar impact predictions.
Yahoo
6 hours ago
- Science
- Yahoo
Potential asteroid impact on Moon in 2032 could trigger massive meteor shower on Earth
What happens if an asteroid the size of a 15-story building crashes into the Moon in 2032? While the chances of the newly discovered asteroid 2024 YR4 hitting the Moon in seven years are slim – there is currently a 96% chance it won't happen – an impact of this size would not come without consequences for the Moon, astronauts and spacecraft orbiting Earth. A new study submitted for review by scientists with the University of Western Ontario and Athabasca University in Canada took observations from the James Webb Space Telescope of asteroid 2024 YR4 and used simulations to show how much lunar debris would be ejected out into space, sending pieces of the Moon toward Earth. Odds Of Asteroid 2024 Yr4 Hitting The Moon Go Up Again After its initial discovery late last year, the asteroid appeared to have a small chance of impacting Earth, warranting international attention, and jumping to the highest asteroid threat ever given on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale. By February, more ground-based observations of the asteroid helped clear the threat to Earth, but the Moon still faces a possible impact. Earlier this year, NASA's James Webb Space Telescope helped scientists determine that the asteroid is between 175 and 220 feet in diameter. If Asteroid 2024 YR4 crashes into the Moon, it would create a crater more than half a mile in diameter (1 km), becoming the largest impact in about 5,000 years, according to the study. Current calculations show, if it happens, an impact would occur on the Southern Hemisphere. The researchers said this impact would threaten satellites in low-Earth orbit for days or up to a few months, and send a fraction of the ejecta toward Earth. Any lunar debris that makes it within Earth's atmosphere could create a meteor shower event over the planet. "The resulting meteor shower could last a few days and be spectacular, though the number of visible meteors somewhat muted by the low entry speed of ejecta," the research team said. With more than 10,000 active satellites in low-Earth orbit and more than 25,000 pieces of space junk, researchers believe an asteroid strike to the Moon could spell trouble for satellite operators. "Given the very large total exposed area for satellites by 2032, it becomes possible that hundreds to thousands of impacts from mm-sized debris ejected by a lunar impact from 2024 YR4 will be experienced across the entire satellite fleet," the study authors wrote. "Such impacts may damage satellites, but are small enough to generally not end active missions or cause breakups." The researchers say material from the Moon could be a "serious hazard to moon-orbiting spacecraft" such as NASA's Lunar Gateway, a planned orbiting station for astronauts, and an "even greater danger" to any lunar surface operations. Asteroid 2024 YR4 has moved behind the Sun, limiting any new observations until 2028. Scientists say those new observations in a few years will help improve lunar impact article source: Potential asteroid impact on Moon in 2032 could trigger massive meteor shower on Earth Solve the daily Crossword
Newsweek
12 hours ago
- Science
- Newsweek
Moon-hitting Asteroid Could Cause Special Meteor Shower
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. An extraordinary celestial event could unfold in the night sky in less than a decade if an asteroid passing Earth collides with the Moon. The impact of asteroid 2024 YR4 into the lunar surface would likely send debris flying out towards us, resulting in a unique meteor shower composed entirely of moon dust. This intriguing prospect is the subject of recent study by researchers from the University of Western Ontario, Athabasca University and the Institute for Earth and Space Exploration (IESX). The team estimate that 2024 YR4—which is some 200 feet in diameter—has around a four percent chance of impacting the moon on December 22, 2032. Should the collision occur, the energy released would be substantial—equivalent to 6.5 megatons of TNT. Such an impact would to excavate a massive crater out of the lunar surface, one more than half a mile in diameter. An asteroid near a planet. An asteroid near a planet.A Meteor Shower of Moondust The most fascinating consequence of the 2024 YR4's collision with the Moon for Earth would be the creation of a moondust meteor storm. The impact would release a significant amount of lunar material, a portion of portion of which might travel towards our planet. According to the researchers, "as much as 10 percent of this material may accrete to the Earth on timescales of a few days," depending on the exact location of the impact on the Moon's surface. The moondust blasted at Earth's would differ significantly from typical meteors, the team explain. Firstly, the dust would enter Earth's upper atmosphere at the relatively slow speed of approximately seven miles per second; this is considerably slower than well-known showers like the Perseids, which travel at around 37 miles per second. As a result, these lunar meteors would likely appear dimmer and more prolonged than standard "shooting stars"—but they could still be visible to the naked eye, and in substantial numbers. Simulations by the researchers suggest that this unique storm could continue for several days. What makes this event truly remarkable is the prospect that nearly every visible meteor during such a shower would be an actual fragment of the Moon. Historical Significance and Concerns If asteroid 2024 YR4 does strike in 2032, it would be a rare historical event, the researchers note. "If 2024 YR4 strikes the Moon in 2032, it will (statistically speaking) be the largest impact in approximately 5,000 years," they wrote in their paper. Beyond the spectacular sight, though, the potential impact also raises concerns for planetary defense and space operations. The researchers noted that the "impacts on the Moon may generate particles which can interfere with Low Earth orbiting satellites," often used for communication, Earth observation and research. Astronomers will have a clearer picture of asteroid 2024 YR4's trajectory in 2028 when it clears the sun and becomes observable again, allowing for updated calculations on its likelihood of impact. Do you have a tip on a science story that Newsweek should be covering? Do you have a question about asteroids? Let us know via science@ Reference Wiegert, P., Brown, P., Lopes, J., & Connors, M. (2025). The potential danger to satellites due to ejecta from a 2032 lunar impact by asteroid 2024 YR4. arXiv.
ITV News
2 days ago
- Science
- ITV News
Asteroid 2024 YR4 could now hit moon instead of Earth - but what does it mean for our planet?
The asteroid known as 2024 YR4 may no longer be on course to hit Earth, but it's still keeping scientists curious. Estimated to be around 60 metres in diameter, the hunk of rock is currently beyond the reach of telescopes, as it orbits around the sun. But its lack of visibility is raising eyebrows, as the asteroid may have a new destination set in its sights - the moon. When did scientists first become aware of YR4? YR4 was first discovered at the end of last year, with fears it could hit our planet by December 22, 2032. Even through astronomical tools, the asteroid appears as small as a speck of light, but in reality, it is likely to be around 60 metres (200 feet) in diameter, according to observations made in March by the James Webb Space Telescope. The chances of the asteroid making contact with our planet have since changed with every new observation. In February of this year, it peaked at 3.1%, making it the riskiest asteroid ever observed. Both ground and space-based telescopes played a crucial role in establishing the asteroid's size and orbit. Precise measurements allowed researchers to eventually rule out a collision with Earth. What do the latest observations of the YR4 reveal? The matter has since unfortunately disappeared from scientists' view; however, the latest observations (from June) have improved astronomers' knowledge of where it will be in seven years by almost 20%, according to Nasa. The data reveals that even with avoiding direct contact with Earth, YR4 could still potentially pose a threat if it collides with the moon in late 2032. On impact, we could see fine-grained lunar material making its way towards Earth. Our planet won't suffer any significant physical danger, but there is a chance that any astronauts or infrastructure on the moon's surface could be at risk. Satellites that orbit the Earth and any missions close to our planet could also be in the pathway of the debris. What could we see from Earth? Initial research suggests the impact is most likely to occur on the near side of the moon - the side we can see from Earth. The collision between the asteroid and the moon could create a bright flash which would be visible to the naked eye for several seconds, according to Dr Paul Wiegert, a professor of astronomy and physics at Western University in London, Ontario, who spoke to CNN. How could this asteroid impact how astronauts observe future threats? Astronomers believe this asteroid could redefine what kind of threats they pay attention to, expanding their focus to include matter that could crash into the moon as well as the Earth. 'We're starting to realise that maybe we need to extend that shield a little bit further,' said Wiegert. 'We now have things worth protecting that are a bit further away from Earth, so our vision is hopefully expanding a little bit to encompass that.' For now, scientists are assessing how problematic the YR4's lunar impact could be and what can be done to mitigate it.
