
Trump's attacks on international student enrollment could ultimately shake the economy
These American schools have become more reliant on the higher tuition paid by international students as state and federal support has waned. Now, their financial viability could be shaken.
That could have a negative impact on US-born students seeking a college education, and economists and researchers warn that the ripple effects could extend well beyond the lawns of college campuses: A drop-off in international students could reverberate through the US labor market and broader economy in years to come.
'The skill premium, as we call it, is very large, which is why highly educated workers earn so much more,' said Michael Lovenheim, a labor economist and professor at Cornell University's School of Industrial and Labor Relations.
International students, he added, 'generate not only returns to themselves through higher wages, but they work in sectors that generate economic growth, they start businesses, they work in high-growth areas that generate more productivity and increase [Gross Domestic Product].'
And that economic impact, he said, is 'positive and large.'
During the 2023-24 academic year, 1.1 million international students were credited with supporting 378,175 jobs, half of which were at colleges and universities and the rest being in other sectors such as housing, food service, retail, transportation and insurance, according to NAFSA: Association of International Educators.
All told, that amounted to a record-high economic contribution of $43.8 billion, according to the member-based organization.
Reducing enrollment or hurting international students' desire to study in America, he added, will 'lessen our economic competitiveness in the medium run and maybe the long run as well, depending on how things play out.'
The Trump administration's efforts to limit international students have already affected the Global Migration Center, an interdisciplinary research center at the University of California, Davis, said center director Giovanni Peri, an economist and UC-Davis professor who has researched the economic impacts of international migration.
'The new cohort of students that are coming (from other countries), we've already lost a few of them because of the uncertainty of the funding and the visa that we're providing,' Peri told CNN in an interview. 'A couple of people who were from Europe decided to go to England.'
And the international students currently conducting research at the center are experiencing hardships as well, he added.
'They are really struggling with their funding; they are not traveling internationally. A couple of my students could not go to international conferences in the last couple of months because they were worried they would not have been able to come back' because of worries they'd get stopped at the border, Peri said.
The research itself, he added, has become harder with reduced funding.
'It took a long time for the US to establish itself as, by far, the strongest university environment in the world,' he said. 'But things change, and things can change in a more permanent way.'
If international students elect to instead study in Canada, Europe, Australia or other regions, that loss will ultimately damage the US economy, he said.
'The rate at which foreign students create firms in the United States after graduation is about four times as large as the rate at which Americans create,' Peri said, citing his research on the topic. 'So, there will be fewer companies created. There will be fewer scientists and engineers to fill other companies in the US; there will be less growth of companies, jobs, and lower income in many local economies.'
The potential business generation effect already is hampered by immigration restrictions or challenges, Peri noted.
In an earlier study, he and his colleagues found that because of immigration and visa restrictions, only 20% of international US Master's graduates remained in the US and worked for at least two years. There have been legislative proposals to give a green card to students who earn a degree in the US (a policy that Trump publicly supported), Peri said, adding that 'not only this has not happened, but we have made several steps in the opposite direction.'
'This is now a completely different world, but this idea of students who study in the US should be able, if the company makes an offer, to have a visa had such a consensus that was so broad and so bipartisan,' he said. 'Because everybody saw that the US helped these students and this human capital to be created and that some of the benefits could stay in the US if there is an option.'
If the Trump administration's policies and approach toward international students don't change significantly, these negative consequences could be felt in the broader US economy in two to three years, he added.
Not excusing the 'brutality' of the Trump administration's approach, recent events could drive a meaningful debate around the internationalization of the American student body, David Bell, a history professor at Princeton, wrote Tuesday in a New York Times opinion piece.
Bell noted that 1.1 million international students enrolled in the 2023-2024 school year — four times the enrollment 45 years ago.
'Like many large social changes, this one happened without much conscious planning or debate,' he wrote. 'Foreign students kept applying in ever greater numbers, and universities happily admitted them, since non-Americans receive merit- and need-based financial assistance at much lower rates than Americans do. It has taken Donald Trump's crude and vengeful swipe at Harvard to draw much attention to the subject.'
In a follow-up interview with CNN, Bell noted the potential trade-offs with expanding international enrollment: On one hand, universities can serve as engines for future economic growth and further global relationships; on the other hand, universities potentially could fall short when serving homegrown applicants.
'The past couple of decades, the trend has been very, very strongly toward a steady increase in the number of international students, and I think it may be worth asking whether we should be continuing with that increase, or should we keep (enrollment) at the current level or even decrease the level of international students slightly,' Bell said. 'Not doing anything precipitous, not doing anything brutal as the administration seems to be attempting to do, but simply keeping an eye on the situation and recognizing the trade-offs.'
Hashtags

Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles


Bloomberg
9 minutes ago
- Bloomberg
Trump Tariffs Leave Costly China Supply Question Unanswered
President Donald Trump's recent flurry of trade deals have given Asian exporters some clarity on tariffs, but missing are key details on how to avoid punitive rates that target China's supply chains. Trump unveiled tariffs of 20% for Vietnam and 19% for Indonesia and the Philippines, signaling those are the levels the US will likely settle on for most of Southeast Asia, a region that ships $352 billion worth of goods annually to the US.

Los Angeles Times
10 minutes ago
- Los Angeles Times
Hong Kong police offer rewards for tips leading to the arrest of 19 overseas activists
HONG KONG — Hong Kong police announced rewards for information leading to the arrest of 19 overseas-based activists for their roles in what they called a subversive organization abroad, accusing them of violating a national security law imposed by Beijing. Police said in a statement Friday that the group, Hong Kong Parliament, aimed to promote self-determination and establish a 'Hong Kong constitution,' alleging it was using illegal means to overthrow and undermine China's fundamental system or usurp the institutions in power in Hong Kong or Beijing. At the request of the police, the city's court issued arrest warrants for activists Elmer Yuen, Johnny Fok, Tony Choi, Victor Ho, Keung Ka-wai and 14 others. They are alleged to have organized or participated in an election abroad for the Hong Kong Parliament, as well as setting up or becoming members of the group. According to a Facebook statement by the group on June 30, its election drew some 15,700 valid votes through mobile app and online voting systems. It said the candidates and elected members came from various regions, including Taiwan, Thailand, Australia, the U.S., Canada and Britain. While the group calls itself Hong Kong Parliament, its electoral organizing committee was founded in Canada and its influence is limited. Police already offered 1 million Hong Kong dollars, or about $127,400, for information leading to the arrest of Yuen, Ho, Fok and Choi when previous arrest warrants were issued against them. For the other 15, rewards of 200,000 Hong Kong dollars were offered, and residents were urged to provide information about the case or the people. 'The investigation is still ongoing. If necessary, police will offer bounties to hunt down more suspects in the case,' police said. They also called on the wanted activists to stop their activities, saying that they hoped they 'will take this opportunity to return to Hong Kong and turn themselves in, rather than making more mistakes.' Yuen said in a Facebook Live broadcast that the election was not quite successful in drawing active participation, and that the police campaign would help the group rally support for the resistance movement. 'It helps us with a lot of advertising,' Yuen said. During the live chat with Yuen, Sasha Gong, another activist targeted by the bounties, accused Hong Kong of becoming a police state. She said she is a U.S. citizen and would report her case to the American authorities and lawmakers. Over the last two years, Hong Kong authorities have issued arrest warrants for various activists based overseas, including former pro-democracy lawmakers Nathan Law and Ted Hui. Authorities also canceled the passports of some of them under a recent security law introduced to the city last year. The moves against overseas-based activists have drawn criticism from foreign governments, especially given the former British colony was promised that its Western-style civil liberties and semi-autonomy would be kept intact for at least 50 years when it returned to Chinese rule in 1997. U.K. Foreign Secretary David Lammy and Home Secretary Yvette Cooper said in a joint statement that the warrants and bounties on people living in Britain are 'another example of transnational repression,' and that the act encourages reckless behavior on U.K. soil. In March, the United States sanctioned six Chinese and Hong Kong officials who it alleged were involved in 'transnational repression' and acts that threaten to further erode the city's autonomy. Beijing and Hong Kong contend that the national security laws were necessary for the city's stability. Hong Kong police have maintained that the Beijing-imposed law applies to permanent residents in Hong Kong who violate it abroad. In retaliation for the U.S. move, China in April said it would sanction American officials, lawmakers and leaders of nongovernmental organizations who it says have 'performed poorly' on Hong Kong issues. Leung writes for the Associated Press.

Los Angeles Times
10 minutes ago
- Los Angeles Times
Judge dismisses Trump administration lawsuit against Chicago ‘sanctuary' laws
CHICAGO — A judge in Illinois dismissed a Trump administration lawsuit Friday that sought to disrupt limits Chicago imposes on cooperation between federal immigration agents and local police. The lawsuit, filed in February, alleged that so-called sanctuary laws in the nation's third-largest city 'thwart' federal efforts to enforce immigration laws. It argued that local laws run counter to federal laws by restricting 'local governments from sharing immigration information with federal law enforcement officials' and preventing immigration agents from identifying 'individuals who may be subject to removal.' Judge Lindsay Jenkins of the Northern District of Illinois granted the defendants' motion for dismissal. Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson said that he was pleased with the decision and that the city is safer when police focus on the needs of Chicagoans. 'This ruling affirms what we have long known: that Chicago's Welcoming City Ordinance is lawful and supports public safety. The City cannot be compelled to cooperate with the Trump Administration's reckless and inhumane immigration agenda,' he said in a statement. Gov. JB Pritzker, a Democrat, welcomed the ruling, saying in a social media post, 'Illinois just beat the Trump Administration in federal court.' The Justice Department and the Department of Homeland Security and did not immediately respond to messages seeking comment. The administration has filed a series of lawsuits targeting state or city policies it sees as interfering with immigration enforcement, including those in Los Angeles, New York City, Denver and Rochester, N.Y. It sued four New Jersey cities in May. Heavily Democratic Chicago has been a sanctuary city for decades and has beefed up its laws several times, including during President Trump's first term in 2017. That same year, then-Gov. Bruce Rauner, a Republican, signed more statewide sanctuary protections into law, putting him at odds with his party. There is no official definition for sanctuary policies or sanctuary cities. The terms generally describe limits on local cooperation with Immigration and Customs Enforcement. ICE enforces U.S. immigration laws nationwide but sometimes seeks state and local help.