Why US U-turn on climate goals could be India's moment for clean-tech leap

India Today

2 days ago

India may have just been handed the clearest opening yet to emerge as a global clean-tech giant—not by virtue of a new domestic policy stroke or an international alliance but because of a stunning reversal of climate ambition by the United States.During a stormy session in the US Senate chamber, lawmakers voted to dismantle the very foundation of America's landmark climate law, the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). Once hailed as the boldest climate legislation in US history, the IRA had unlocked over $370 billion in subsidies, tax credits and incentives to power America's clean energy transition.advertisementWith the new budget bill passed by the Senate—pending only House reconciliation and a presidential sign-off—those gains now stand gutted. On July 1 late evening (Washington D.C. time), the voting saw a tie, the bill passed with US vice-president J.D. Vance casting the tie-breaking vote.It will now move to the House of Representatives, which may pass it as is or amend it. If amended, it returns to the Senate for another vote. If approved by the House, it then goes to the US president for signature. Republicans have a slim majority, with 220 representatives in the 435-member house.
The global climate economy, into which India has been steadily integrating, is already feeling the tremors. But amidst the churn, India stands out as one of the few nations poised to gain.The retreat of the United States from its clean energy commitments has the potential to reshape global supply chains, redirect hundreds of billions of dollars in green capital and shift geopolitical influence over climate action. For India, which has been investing heavily in solar manufacturing, EVs, battery storage and green hydrogen, this unexpected vacuum in American leadership presents a strategic opportunity: to step into the role of a manufacturing base, innovation hub and investment magnet in the emerging green order. But whether India can truly seize the moment will depend on how quickly and decisively its government and industry move.The scale of the rollback in the US is staggering. The Senate bill—officially a sweeping tax and immigration package—includes provisions that render the IRA practically toothless. It ends federal tax credits for clean energy, electric vehicles, rooftop solar, home efficiency and clean manufacturing. It terminates the commercial clean vehicle credit and the consumer EV rebate. It phases out the clean energy manufacturing production credit beginning 2031. Simultaneously, the bill extends permanent credits for coal used in steel production and delays by a decade the implementation of a fee on methane leaks from oil and gas facilities. As a final blow, it rescinds funding for environmental justice, endangered species protection and low-carbon infrastructure in underserved communities.advertisementThe implications are as economic as they are environmental. The Congressional Budget Office estimates the Senate bill would add $3.9 trillion to the US deficit over a decade. According to Energy Innovation, a clean energy support entity, power generation capacity will fall by 300 GW by 2035, the US economy will lose $960 billion in cumulative GDP and more than half a million jobs will vanish.Others warn of graver consequences still. 'If the Senate reconciliation bill passes,' says Advait Arun, senior associate for energy finance at the Center for Public Enterprise, New York, 'the GOP has all but guaranteed that Americans will face blackouts and grid failures in the coming years This bill forcibly deindustrialises the country and severely reduces our shared standard of living.'For India, that collapse of confidence in American clean-tech policy opens three big doors: the redirection of climate capital, relocation of manufacturing capacity and repositioning of leadership in multilateral green platforms. First, the capital. Over $370 billion had been unlocked by the IRA, and vast pools of private equity, pension funds and climate-focused institutional investors had coalesced around the US clean energy story.advertisementWith tax credits repealed and grid modernisation shelved, much of that capital is now seeking stable, policy-backed alternatives. India, with its green bond framework, sovereign climate finance architecture and expanding production-linked incentive (PLI) schemes, fits the bill provided it can absorb the flows.Second, manufacturing. India's ambitions to build a self-reliant clean-tech manufacturing base—bolstered by the Rs 24,000 crore PLI (Production Linked Incentive) for solar and batteries, the Rs 19,744 crore Green Hydrogen Mission and state-level industrial parks—now appear more globally competitive than ever.Chinese dominance of the green manufacturing chain has long been acknowledged, but India has quietly emerged as a fast-follower, especially in areas like electric two-wheelers, distributed solar, and electrolyser manufacturing. With the US effectively sidelining itself, India is in prime position to become the supplier of choice for the Global South—and increasingly for Europe, Japan and Australia, all of whom are seeking diversified, democratic alternatives to Chinese green goods.It is here that the comparison with China becomes critical. China today controls over 80 per cent of the world's solar wafer and module production, dominates global battery supply chains and has unmatched scale in electrolyser manufacturing. Its mineral refining ecosystem for lithium, cobalt and rare earths is unrivalled.advertisementChinese firms have vertically integrated—from mining to manufacturing to deployment—giving them a cost advantage that few can compete with. However, this dominance has also created geopolitical unease. Western nations worry about overdependence on a single country for critical energy components. Supply chain disruptions during Covid-19 and rising trade frictions have only intensified those concerns.India, by contrast, is late to the scale game but arguably better positioned to serve as a diversified, democratic alternative. It lacks China's vertical integration, but offers political alignment with the West, cost-effective labour and a fast-improving logistics and manufacturing ecosystem.Crucially, India is not yet seen as a hegemon. It can position itself as a partner, not a replacement. Richard Black, director of policy and strategy at global energy think-tank Ember, captured this realignment well. 'Chinese factories are still going to be producing the clean energy goods in increasing demand around the world, with Indian companies in fast pursuit; and while the US government has just decided that it won't be a customer, it's also decided not to be a competitor,' he said.The third opportunity is diplomatic. India's credibility as a climate voice rose during its G20 presidency. Its leadership of the International Solar Alliance (ISA), the Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure (CDRI) and the newly-formed Global Biofuels Alliance shows it can knit together broad coalitions around energy and sustainability. With the US retreating, India can step up as the principal advocate for an inclusive, just energy transition—one that prioritises affordability, access and employment, not just net-zero metrics.advertisementThe question is whether India is ready. Some parts of the answer are encouraging. The Indian clean-tech ecosystem is no longer in its infancy. Adani Green, ReNew Power and Tata Power Solar are among the world's largest renewable asset owners. Vikram Solar and Waaree Energies have ramped up module exports. Ola Electric, Mahindra and Tata Motors are pushing EV adoption deeper into Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities.Reliance New Energy and L&T are investing billions into green hydrogen and battery storage. Infosys, TCS and emerging players like Grid Edge are building AI-based smart grid solutions and energy management systems that can be exported to other developing countries.But India is not yet firing on all cylinders. Supply chains for critical minerals remain thin. EV penetration is still uneven. Financing for early-stage clean start-ups is sluggish compared to China or the US. Power evacuation infrastructure lags in key solar-rich states. Besides, the overall scale of capital needed to convert this opportunity is significant: industry estimates suggest India will need to mobilise Rs 2.5 lakh crore to Rs 3 lakh crore (roughly $30-35 billion) over the next five years to scale up manufacturing, build export zones and underwrite risk in frontier clean technologies. Much of that will need to come from global green capital—through sovereign funds, blended finance vehicles, and ESG (environmental, social and governance)-focused infrastructure trusts.It is here that policy must step in. A new Green Investment Platform, combining the balance sheets of IREDA, NIIF, SBI, and REC, can act as a one-stop shop for investors looking for certainty in Indian climate infrastructure. PLI 2.0 should be rolled out to include energy software, smart grids, carbon tracking systems, and AI-based energy optimisation—areas where India has a comparative advantage.Green SEZs, with fast-track clearances and export corridors, can be established in Gujarat, Tamil Nadu, Odisha and Maharashtra. And perhaps most urgently, a 'Clean Innovation Migration Visa' could invite displaced US clean-tech entrepreneurs, engineers and researchers to set up in India's innovation clusters, including Hyderabad, Pune and Bengaluru.This is not idle speculation. American stakeholders themselves acknowledge what the bill has unleashed. 'This bill gives up on the present and future of American manufacturing,' said Mike Williams of the Center for American Progress, an independent policy institute. 'It kills investments in clean industries that have been driving domestic manufacturing growth This is a gift to other nations who are furiously working towards beefing up their clean-tech capacities.'Manish Bapna of the Natural Resources Defense Council (NDRC) added: 'This measure props up the dirty and expensive technologies of the past while strangling the clean energy investments creating millions of jobs Republicans are punishing the plentiful wind and solar power that can be quickly added to the grid.'India must remember that this opportunity, while monumental, is also fragile. The same global investors now fleeing US policy volatility are watching India's actions closely. Delay, fragmentation or over-centralisation could spook capital. Likewise, any backsliding on India's own climate targets, or politicisation of the clean energy transition, could blunt its credibility.But if India can maintain focus, scale up rapidly and speak with one voice on the global stage, it stands to gain not just market share but narrative power. In the 20th century, India missed the hardware revolution and caught up only late to the telecom boom. Clean-tech could be different. It could be the first global industrial transformation that India shapes from the front—technologically, economically and diplomatically.The US decision to gut its climate law may have dire consequences for the planet. But it has inadvertently thrown down the gauntlet. India must now decide whether it wants to lead this century's green industrial revolution or watch from the sidelines.Subscribe to India Today Magazine- EndsMust Watch