AL East race is heating up. Plus: All-Star starter surprises

New York Times

20 hours ago

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We wrote yesterday about Kershaw's quest to become the 20th pitcher in MLB history to hit 3,000 strikeouts. Well, he got it: Here's the full story.
Plus: Zero (the Yankees' lead in the AL East), 18 (All-Star starters), six (Pirates wins in a row) and 38 (wins from 300 for Justin Verlander). I'm Levi Weaver, here with Ken Rosenthal — welcome to The Windup! (The last one this week, FYI.)
OK Jays, we're paying attention.
When Vlad Guerrero Jr. caught a pop-up to finish a wild 11-9 win over the Yankees last night, it was Toronto's third win in a row over New York, meaning it has pulled into a tie for first place in the AL East standings.
The last time the Blue Jays were in first place? April 13 — when their record was 9-7. In the interim, they fell to eight games behind the Yankees on May 27.
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But since that low point, they've gone 22-10, surging back to the top of the division. They're not the only ones, either — the Tampa Bay Rays went 17-10 in June and are now just a half-game back of the Jays and the struggling Yankees, who went 13-14 for the month.
The loss was particularly frustrating for the Yankees, and not just because it completed a month-long dissipation of their division lead. After allowing seven runs in the first inning, they battled all the way back, scoring six of their own in the fifth, then tying the game at 9-9 in the eighth inning.
And then the go-ahead run scored on a Devin Williams wild pitch.
There's a sweep — and solo possession of first place — on the line when they face off tonight. It'll be Clarke Schmidt (4-4, 3.09) vs. Chris Bassitt (7-4, 4.29) at 7:07 p.m. ET (MLB Network).
From my latest column:
The battle always was going to be uphill. Justin Verlander entered the season needing 38 wins to fulfill his goal of reaching 300. At age 42, seeking to average 13 wins over three years or 10 wins over four, he was never exactly a good bet.
The odds against Verlander getting to 300 are even longer now that he is winless in his first 13 starts for the San Francisco Giants, the longest streak by a Giants pitcher since at least 1901. (Of course it's the longest such streak. Any other pitcher to go winless in 13 straight likely would be out of the rotation.)
Verlander, though, isn't pitching horribly. His park- and league-adjusted ERA is only 9 percent worse than league average. He was disrupted by a strained right pec that kept him out from May 22 to June 18. And he firmly believes he is on the verge of a breakthrough.
'I feel like I kind of found something mechanically,' Verlander said yesterday. 'I'm hopeful it's going to allow me to pitch the way I feel I still can. I'm still throwing 94-95 pretty consistently. I know that's good enough to have success. I just need to find a way to make it click. That's what I've been searching for.'
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Is he a veteran pitcher capable of making the necessary adjustments to succeed, or simply an aging one trying to talk himself into a last hurrah? Verlander's numbers aren't necessarily encouraging. His average fastball velocity of 93.9 mph is below league average. His strikeout rate is only in the 26th percentile. His expected 5.09 ERA is higher than his actual 4.26.
Getting to 300 wins that way won't be easy, if it's even possible at all. Verlander has faced some of the league's worst teams — the Athletics, Colorado Rockies, Miami Marlins and Chicago White Sox — and still has not won.
'I was hurt for a month. It's still a small sample size. You can't make a drastic decision based on that,' Verlander said.
'You just try to pitch better, and hopefully the wins will follow. You've got to be pretty objective. Yeah, I've given us some chances. But I need to pitch better. I do think I'm capable of that. If I didn't, I wouldn't still be playing.'
More here.
The votes have been counted, and we have starters. Chad Jennings has a full list and analysis here, but there were two names that surprised me, both in the AL.
The first surprise: Jacob Wilson of the A's will be the starting shortstop. It has been well-established in this newsletter that I'm a fan of Wilson's game, so this is not a suggestion that he didn't deserve it. (Jeremy Peña of the Astros is having a better year, but I digress.)
At any rate, I am surprised that fans voted for him over more recognizable names like Gunnar Henderson and — the other finalist — Bobby Witt Jr.
The other surprise: Javy Báez is a starting outfielder. Check out his bWAR totals for each of the last six full seasons:
2018: 6.8
2019: 6.7
2021: 4.3
2022: 2.4
2023: 0.8
2024: -1.1
This year, the 32-year-old is already back up to 2.2 bWAR and has been a big contributor to the Tigers' success. Yes — 2.2 bWAR is lower than AL outfielders like Steven Kwan, Byron Buxton, Ceddanne Rafaela and others. But hey: The Tigers are winning! Their fans are excited to vote!
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Reserves and pitchers will be announced Sunday.
More All-Star starters:
Quick quiz: Do you know who has the longest winning streak in the sport?
It's the Pirates, of course. After sweeping the Mets, they went and swept the Cardinals, too, giving them a six-game winning streak.
The biggest difference over the last week has been the offense coming to life. In their first 82 games, the Pirates scored an average of 3.26 runs per game. Over their last six? 7.16 runs per game (and that includes a 1-0 win Tuesday.)
But the pitching has been magnificent. Over the last six games, the Pirates have allowed a total of four runs.
They're still 38-50 — 14 games back in the division and nine back in the wild card — but credit where it's due: The Pirates have been rolling.
But before last night, there was one team with a longer winning streak: the Marlins, whose eight-game winning streak instead came to a frustrating end. In the sixth inning, with the Twins up 2-1 and Jesús Sánchez on second base … well, just watch this:
That's Kyle Stowers hitting a ball 111.5 mph, a no-doubt single to drive in the tying run.
Except … the ball was hit so hard that second base umpire Emil Jimenez couldn't get out of the way. It grazed him en route to the outfield; you can see him waving immediately.
So even though the ball was smoked, and nowhere near a Twins fielder, the game was not tied.
That's because when a ball hits an umpire, MLB Rule 5.06(c)(6) states the play is a dead ball, the batter is awarded first base and all runners return to their bases unless forced.
That's right. Not only did Sánchez not score, he was sent back to second base. First baseman Eric Wagaman struck out to end the inning. The final score was 2-1.
Bummer for the Marlins, but it's still been quite a run. Alas, like the Pirates, this run has been a nice break from an otherwise miserable season: they're 38-46, 11 1/2 games behind the Phillies in the division and seven back in the wild card.
Eno Sarris looks at Kershaw's slider, from strikeout No. 1 to No. 3,000.
More Dodgers: Max Muncy appeared to suffer a serious knee injury just before that 3,000th strikeout. Freddie Freeman capped a dramatic comeback walk-off. And the team is the target of a seemingly retaliatory civil rights complaint by the White House, pointing to their DEI initiatives.
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Two big stories from Atlanta, where the Braves DFA'd Alex Verdugo to make room on the roster for Jurickson Profar, and starter Spencer Schwellenbach joined the ranks of the injured — he has a fracture in his elbow.
Wasn't this year supposed to be the end of the rebuild? So, what is going on in D.C. with the Nationals?
Speaking of D.C. … that's where the new Women's Pro Baseball League will hold its first-ever tryouts in August.
Jim Bowden spoke to MLB execs, who predicted the players most likely to be traded at the deadline.
On the pods: Cubs catcher Carson Kelly joined 'Starkville' to talk about his breakout first half (including that cycle). And on 'Rates & Barrels,' they assess the AL Division leaders, and league-wide offense holding steady, despite a mysterious increase in drag on the baseballs.
Most-clicked in our last newsletter: Ken's All-Star roster picks.