Seismic miscalculation? Why Israel's strikes could end up pushing Tehran closer to the n-bomb
The trigger, perhaps, is the latest IAEA report published in May 2025. It confirmed that Iran has amassed more than 400 kg of uranium enriched to 60% U-235, plus thousands more enriched to lower levels. This stockpile is enough for up to nine nuclear weapons. The agency also reported that Iran has disabled key monitoring systems, refused access, and ceased implementing the Additional Protocol, making full verification impossible. The significantly increased production and accumulation of highly enriched uranium by Iran, the only non-nuclear-weapon State to produce such nuclear material, is of serious concern.
This is the clearest nuclear breakout profile the world has seen in decades—and Israel decided it could wait no longer.
Israel's strikes went beyond nuclear weapons facilities. They have killed senior IRGC commanders and nuclear engineers and targeted oil and gas infrastructure. Destruction of the program in its entirety is likely beyond reach. Iran's nuclear sites are dispersed, fortified, and in some cases buried deep underground. So Israel is doing what it can–targeting centrifuges and research centres, and eliminating the human capital behind Iran's progress. It's a strategy of degradation, disruption, and demoralisation.
What sets this round of conflict apart is Israel's open psychological and political messaging. After the first wave of strikes, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu directly addressed the Iranian people, saying, 'The time has come for the Iranian people to unite around its flag and its historic legacy, by standing up for your freedom from the evil and oppressive regime.'
This is a call for uprising. While Israel officially denies that regime change is its objective, Netanyahu's words—combined with military actions targeting Iran's top command—make the message clear.
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Hindustan Times
an hour ago
- Hindustan Times
Australia arrests man behind arson attack on Melbourne synagogue
Australian police have charged a man in connection with an alleged arson attack on a Melbourne synagogue with worshippers in the building, the latest in a series of incidents targeting the nation's Jewish community. A man suspected of setting fire to an Australian synagogue as worshippers ate dinner inside has been arrested and charged,(AFP) There were no injuries to the 20 people inside the East Melbourne Synagogue, who fled from the fire on Friday night. Firefighters extinguished the blaze in the capital of Victoria state. Australia has experienced several antisemitic incidents since the start of the Israel-Gaza war in October 2023. Counterterrorism detectives late on Saturday arrested the 34-year-old resident of Sydney, capital of neighbouring New South Wales, charging him with offences including criminal damage by fire, police said. "The man allegedly poured a flammable liquid on the front door of the building and set it on fire before fleeing the scene," police said in a statement. The suspect, whom the authorities declined to identify, was remanded in custody after his case was heard at Melbourne Magistrates Court on Sunday and no application was made for bail, the Australian Broadcasting Corp reported. Authorities are investigating whether the synagogue fire was linked to a disturbance on Friday night at an Israeli restaurant in Melbourne, in which one person was arrested for hindering police. The restaurant was extensively damaged, according to the Executive Council of Australian Jewry, an umbrella group for Australia's Jews. It said the fire at the synagogue, one of Melbourne's oldest, was set as those inside sat down to Sabbath dinner. Israeli President Isaac Herzog went on X to "condemn outright the vile arson attack targeting Jews in Melbourne's historic and oldest synagogue on the Sabbath, and on an Israeli restaurant where people had come to enjoy a meal together". "This is not the first such attack in Australia in recent months. But it must be the last," Herzog said. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu described the incidents as "severe hate crimes" that he viewed "with utmost gravity". "The State of Israel will continue to stand alongside the Australian Jewish community," Netanyahu said on X. Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese late on Saturday described the alleged arson, which comes seven months after another synagogue in Melbourne was targeted by arsonists, as shocking and said those responsible should face the law's full force. "My Government will provide all necessary support toward this effort," Albanese posted on X. Homes, schools, synagogues and vehicles in Australia have been targeted by antisemitic vandalism and arson. The incidents included a fake plan by organised crime to attack a Sydney synagogue using a caravan of explosives in order to divert police resources, police said in March.
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First Post
2 hours ago
- First Post
West Asia: Can IMEC do what the Abraham Accords couldn't—deliver peace?
The Israel-Iran conflict is over, at least for the time being. The war in Gaza, however, rages on. Despite frequent attempts to get the warring parties to agree to a ceasefire, it remains elusive. The Donald Trump administration, with Egypt and Qatar as key interlocutors, had recently proposed another ceasefire of 60 days. While initial reports suggested that Israel has agreed to the contours of the ceasefire, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in his statements later, denied it, and Hamas is yet to take a call on it. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD The positions of Israel and Hamas in it are acutely divergent. While Hamas is looking at a complete end to the war accompanied by full withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza, Israel is looking for the release of its hostages with no guarantees on ending the war till Hamas is totally removed from Gaza. With this being the case, an early ceasefire in Gaza looks unlikely. Meanwhile, the ceasefire between Israel and Iran has opened doors for American diplomacy in the region. Expansion of the Abraham Accords is being seen as the preferred instrument in it. There are inputs that Lebanon and Syria could be next to join the Abraham Accords now that they are effectively out of the Iranian sphere of influence. With the fall of the Assad regime in Syria, the Al Shaara-led regime has suddenly become the favourite in Washington. Ahmed Hussein al-Sharaa (previously Abu Mohammad al-Joulani with ISIS and Al-Qaeda links) was welcomed in the White House with open hands, economic sanctions on Syria are being removed, and there are economic packages being worked out to help rebuild Syria. The same is the case in Lebanon, where the government has assured the US and Israel that Hezbollah will not be allowed to regain strength in South Lebanon. Concurrently, efforts to restart the normalisation process between Israel and Saudi Arabia are being pursued. In fact, well before the Israel-Iran conflict broke out, President Trump visited Saudi Arabia and the West Asian region in May 2025 as his first visit abroad after taking over the presidency. Despite a successful visit in which a Saudi investment of almost $600 billion was promised, no headway could be made as far as normalisation of ties between Israel and Saudi Arabia is concerned, with the Gaza war and the Palestine issue remaining key sticking points. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD If the normalisation with Saudi Arabia does not move forward, the entire project of Israel being mainstreamed into the West Asian region will remain an unfinished project. It may be recalled that one of the primary reasons for the outbreak of the Gaza war was the process of this normalisation which was nearing fruition in September 2023. In the last week of September 2023, Israeli Tourism Minister Haim Katz became the first Israeli minister to head an official delegation to Saudi Arabia to take part in a conference of the United Nations Tourism Organisation. He was soon followed by Communications Minister Shlomo Karhi on October 3, leading an Israeli delegation to the Universal Postal Union's 2023 Extraordinary Congress. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS), as well as Israel's PM Netanyahu, also spoke publicly of the deal, the contours of which indicated that Saudi Arabia would have gotten a defence pact with the US as well as a nuclear program. Israel was to offer 'assurances' to the Palestinian groups, but there would be no clear outcome on the two-state solution. If Saudi Arabia and Israel had established formal diplomatic relations without a permanent solution to the Palestine issue, it would have dealt a death blow to the struggle of the Palestinians. Before any more progress on normalisation could take place, the war broke out on October 7, triggered by the Hamas terror attack into Israel. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD In the Gaza war as well as the recent Israel-Iran conflict, Saudi Arabia had to join other Arab/Muslim nations in the region to strongly condemn Israeli strikes into Gaza as well as the unilateral strikes on June 13, violating the territorial integrity of Iran. In such a situation, it is very unlikely that Saudi Arabia will relent soon and move towards normalisation. Any major expansion of the Abraham Accords is therefore likely to remain remote in the near future except, possibly, adding Lebanon and Syria to it. What can then be the path towards peace and economic progress in the region? Can economy and connectivity work where diplomacy is currently facing headwinds? Here is where the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) comes into the picture. It may be recalled that IMEC was one of the most successful outcomes of India's G20 Summit in Delhi in September 2023. Coming as a surprise announcement at the Summit, it immediately caught the imagination of policymakers, businesses, and industry. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD In its concept, it is a bold and transformative connectivity project with a vision to connect India with Europe across the deserts of the Arabian Peninsula, creating an alternate link to the Suez Canal, which has faced frequent disruptions due to conflicts in the region. It envisions a multi-modal economic corridor involving multiple businesses, integrating railways, ports, highways, energy networks, and digital infrastructure to enhance trade, investment, and connectivity across the three continents. When implemented in full, IMEC promises to unlock new opportunities for multi-dimensional trade through multi-modal transport linkages across regions that have traditionally been close trade partners. It has the potential to facilitate faster and more efficient movement of goods, bypassing existing bottlenecks, reducing shipping delays, lowering greenhouse gas emissions, and cutting costs. It also aims to secure regional supply chains, improve trade accessibility, and facilitate the economic prosperity of people and countries along the alignment of the project. One of the key and very interesting parts of the architecture unveiled at the G20 Summit was the alignment, which passes through Jordan and Israel, culminating at the port of Haifa, before its onwards sea passage to Europe. Interestingly, Egypt, which was traditionally a gateway from the region, was excluded from the original architecture despite having better-developed ports and rail infrastructure, giving a clear indication that IMEC was being seen as an instrument of economic connectivity as well as a geopolitical instrument to include Israel. However, even before it could take shape, the war in Gaza erupted, putting it on a backburner. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD In recent months, however, IMEC has come alive again. Whether it was PM Modi's visit to Washington earlier in February, the AI Global Summit in France in February, or the visit of EU Commissioners to New Delhi in March, one common thread is the mention of IMEC and the commitment to see that this project is implemented at the earliest opportunity. S Jaishankar, India's External Affairs Minister, during his recent visit to Brussels in June, held extensive talks with the EU delegation. Among the talks, key points of discussion included the India-EU Free Trade Agreement (FTA) and projects like IMEC, which can not only enhance connectivity but also unlock many other opportunities for collaboration. During recent discussions on IMEC, there is also a clear realisation that the originally proposed alignment may require a modification, and perhaps, the inclusion of Oman in the East and Egypt in the West will offer more options, which are less conflict-prone, to advance the IMEC project. In the West Asian region too, there is a strong positive outlook towards getting IMEC off the ground. India is already working bilaterally with the UAE and Saudi Arabia on coordinating many issues, like plugging the missing links and key regulatory mechanisms, which would be essential for smooth transit of goods through IMEC. The EU too has woken up to the huge promise of IMEC and has started deliberations on it. France and Italy, key signatories of IMEC from Europe, have also nominated special envoys for IMEC. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD If signatory countries in the IMEC and others like Egypt, Oman, etc, do decide to move forward, it can create a huge opportunity for the three regions. India, which is seen to anchor the project, can play a very important and pivotal role in kick-starting the project. With close and strategic relationships with Israel as well as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt, and the EU, India can play a key role in putting collective economic prosperity as the driving factor, putting the conflict on a backburner. Focused and collective efforts on a shared vision of enhanced trade, connectivity, green energy, and prosperity can perhaps do what diplomacy is not able to do—end the cycle of conflict in West Asia. Maybe IMEC can do what the Abraham Accords was aimed for—lasting peace in West Asia. Col Rajeev Agarwal is a West Asia expert and a Senior Research Consultant at Chintan Research Foundation, New Delhi. His X Handle is @rajeev1421. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost's views. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD
Time of India
2 hours ago
- Time of India
Weeks after hiding in bunker, why did Khamenei choose Muharram's day of mourning to reappear?
Iran 's Supreme Leader , Ayatollah Ali Khamenei , made his first public appearance in a mourning ceremony on Saturday, July 5, emerging from seclusion amid the nation's tense aftermath of war with Israel . The timing of his return on Ashura , one of the holiest days in the Shiite Muslim calendar, is widely seen as a symbolic gesture aimed at projecting unity, resilience, and religious defiance in the face of military and political pressure. The 86-year-old leader was seen in footage broadcast by Iranian state television attending a religious mourning ceremony at a mosque next to his residence in Tehran. Also Read: Israel hid massive damage from Iran's missile strike; satellite images reveal 5 military bases hit by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like New Container Houses Ukraine (Prices May Surprise You) Container House | Search ads Search Now Undo Attendees rose and chanted in unison as Khamenei entered, though he made no immediate public statement. Then Khamenei turns to senior cleric Mahmoud Karimi, encouraging him to "sing the anthem, O Iran." The song became particularly popular during the war with Israel . Live Events Why now? Ashura commemorates the martyrdom of Hussein, the grandson of Prophet Muhammad. It is a day steeped in themes of sacrifice, justice, and resistance against tyranny, principles that the Iranian leadership often invokes during periods of crisis. Khamenei's appearance on this day, after remaining unseen during the 12-day war with Israel, carries deep political and religious symbolism. Analysts suggest it was designed to rally public support and reaffirm the leadership's spiritual authority after weeks of uncertainty and silence. In an X post, he said, 'Tonight's mourning ceremony on the eve of Ashura was held in the presence of Imam Khamenei, July 5, 2025'. Khamenei had remained out of the public eye for much of the conflict, reportedly sheltering in a bunker due to threats. Some reports, particularly from opposition-linked sources, claimed that up to 20 senior commanders were killed, though this has not been officially confirmed. During the war, Khamenei issued only pre-recorded messages, one of which claimed 'victory' over Israel and warned the US against further military action following airstrikes on Iran's nuclear sites. Security and symbolism Security concerns have kept Khamenei from public events since the conflict erupted on June 13. According to reports, US President Donald Trump publicly acknowledged knowledge of Khamenei's location during the war but dismissed any immediate plan to target him, stating, 'at least for now.' Despite the ceasefire, tensions remain high. Iran's nuclear program is now under greater international scrutiny, particularly after Tehran expelled UN inspectors and confirmed serious damage to its nuclear infrastructure. Meanwhile, Iran's retaliatory missile strikes during the conflict killed at least 28 people in Israel and damaged several sites, although most projectiles were intercepted. Iran has acknowledged significant casualties, with some sources estimating over 900 deaths and thousands injured, though exact figures remain unverified.
