Nifty resistance seen at around 25,500 levels: Analysts
Nifty
closed below the 25,000 level on Friday after declining almost 1%, and this weakness is likely to continue in the short term, said analysts. While levels around 24,500 are expected to act as key support for the benchmark, resistance is likely around the 25,200–25,500 zone. VIX levels could also see an uptick, especially closer to the monthly expiry. However, pharma stocks could continue their upward trajectory.
ARPAN SHAH
HEAD, TECHNICAL RESEARCH, MONARCH NETWORTH CAPITAL
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Where is the Nifty headed this week?
The benchmark index traded with a negative bias and closed below the psychological 25,000 level with a bearish formation. Bank Nifty outperformed the benchmark index and closed with an indecisive candlestick formation on the weekly chart. FIIs have continued to add shorts on index futures, and their net short positions have reached 86%. Historically, the market has witnessed a short-covering rally once shorts reach the 86-89% zone. Traders can expect volatile momentum in all indices during the monthly expiry week. Nifty has support at 24,500 and resistance at 25,200–25,500 levels. Bank Nifty has support at 56,000 and resistance at 57,200–58,000 levels.
Trading strategies for the week
Pharma has seen outperformance in last two weeks and may continue its outperformance. Biocon is the top pick; Cipla and Syngene are in accumulation zone. RIL has reached near weekly support level; investors can accumulate at current levels. Jindal Steel and Power may continue upward momentum. Nifty Defence index has broken below a key support level; HAL and Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders have closed with bearish candlestick formation, and a rally is a short-selling opportunity. Investors can look to accumulate Capri Global Capital, Saksoft, RACL Geartech, and NLC India at current levels.
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NILESH JAIN
VP, EQUITY TECHNICAL & DERIVATIVE RESEARCH, CENTRUM BROKING
Where is the Nifty headed this week?
The Nifty extended its losing streak for the fourth consecutive week. It faced strong resistance near its 21-DMA, currently around 25,300, which remains a key hurdle. It breached the support level of 25,000, which aligns with its 50-DMA, and this zone is now expected to act as a resistance. A decisive move back above 25,000 could trigger short covering, pushing the index towards 25,200. For the week ahead, the Nifty is likely to trade within a range of 24,500–25,200. The VIX seems to have found support near its multi-month low around 10-mark and has started inching higher, suggesting potential rise in market volatility.
Trading strategies for the week
With the monthly expiry approaching, markets are expected to remain volatile in coming week. We recommend focusing on stock-specific and sectoral opportunities rather than broader index moves. We are seeing sectoral rotation, with market focus shifting back towards defensive segments. The Pharma Index is exhibiting strength by forming a higher top–higher bottom structure, indicating positive short-term trend. Stocks such as Lupin, Cipla, Torrent Pharma, and Apollo Hospitals look well-positioned and can be considered for accumulation. In the insurance space, SBI Life and HDFC Life appear better placed. The IT sector is weighing down indices. The overall structure remains weak. As such, it is advisable to stay away from the sector for now. Additionally, oil & gas and FMCG sectors are also showing signs of weakness and lack nearterm conviction.
RUCHIT JAIN
HEAD, TECHNICAL RESEARCH, MOTILAL OSWAL FIN SERVICES
Where is the Nifty headed next week?
After an 18% rally from the April lows, Nifty has entered a corrective phase this July. Index closed the week below its 50-DEMA, and the RSI on daily and weekly charts continues to show a negative crossover. The index is expected to trade within a range of 24,600–25,250, and a decisive breakout above will be needed for resumption of uptrend. In case of a breakdown below 24,600, next support lies in previous swing low zone of 24,500–24,450.
Trading strategies for the week
Midcap and smallcap indices remain in a consolidation phase. Most sectoral indices are showing signs of a pause or pullback. We continue to advise short-term traders to stay cautious. Pharma and healthcare could outperform, and selective opportunities can be considered in Torrent Pharma, IPCA Labs, and Max Health
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