Now or never for Gaza ceasefire

Politico

6 days ago

With help from Joe Gould, Phelim Kine, Daniel Lippman and Daniella Cheslow
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Israel's parliament went on recess yesterday until mid-October — which could give Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU more flexibility to negotiate a permanent end to the fighting in Gaza as Israel faces a flurry of international outrage over the dire conditions in the enclave.
Netanyahu helms a fragile coalition whose existence would be threatened by additional defections. He relies on the support of two far-right, ultranationalist parties — the Religious Zionist Party and Otzma Yehudit — both of which have throughout the war rejected the Israeli leader's moves to increase humanitarian assistance to Palestinians in Gaza or reach a ceasefire with Hamas.
Throughout the war, both parties have threatened to dissolve the government over such developments. But doing so is much harder when the Knesset is out of session. That gives Netanyahu political cover until at least mid-October to make what could be unpopular overtures within his government after ceasefire talks broke down last week.
'If there was a time he could show flexibility politically, it is now,' said SHIRA EFRON, a senior fellow at the Israel Policy Forum.
The Israeli public backs ending the fighting in Gaza by a wide margin. Seventy-four percent of Israelis, including 60 percent of people who voted for Netanyahu's coalition, said in a recent poll that they'd back an agreement with Hamas to release all remaining hostages at once in exchange for an end to war.
The escalating hunger crisis is adding international pressure for Israel to agree to a deal, with even President DONALD TRUMP — Netanyahu's closest political ally — dismissing the Israeli premier's claims that residents in the embattled enclave are not starving.
'There is real starvation in Gaza — you can't fake that,' Trump told reporters in Scotland today.
Two leading human rights groups in Israel said earlier today that Israel is committing genocide against Palestinians in Gaza, adding to the growing outcry about the country's conduct.
But like so many other efforts to end the fighting in Gaza, just as one party becomes more flexible — in this case Israel — the other hardens its demands. Trump said today he believes Hamas has 'totally changed' and doesn't 'want to give [over] hostages' because the group is using them as a shield to maintain power.
Many political observers in Israel surmised that Netanyahu was holding off on making a deal until the Knesset went into recess.
DAVID MAKOVSKY, a distinguished fellow at The Washington Institute for Near East policy think tank, argues that Netanyahu was working under the assumption that Hamas also wanted a ceasefire as he teed up the recess deadline for a ceasefire.
He added: 'Hamas feels that there's a vulnerability in Israel, so why not keep changing the goal posts?'
There are 50 hostages remaining in captivity in Gaza, including 20 who are believed to be alive and 30 presumed dead. Qatari and Egyptian mediators are continuing to look for a way forward, and Trump's envoy STEVE WITKOFF is meeting senior Israeli officials RON DERMER and TZACHI HANEGBI in Washington later this week to discuss the road ahead.
The Inbox
TRUMP'S NEWEST WARNING: Trump is losing patience with Russian leader VLADIMIR PUTIN as progress toward a ceasefire with Ukraine stalls.
Ahead of his meeting with U.K. Prime Minister KEIR STARMER in Scotland this morning, the president said he was mulling imposing harsh tariffs on Russia before his 50-day deadline for peace expires in a few weeks. He argued that Putin isn't showing any real commitment to reaching a peace deal.
'I want to be generous, but we just don't see any progress being made,' Trump said. 'I'm disappointed in President Putin, very disappointed at him ... and I'm gonna reduce that 50 days that I gave him to a lesser number, because I think I already know the answer.'
Talks resumed last week in Istanbul, but both sides only made progress on the release of additional prisoners of war. Russia also continues to hit Ukraine with drone and missile strikes.
CELEBRATING CAMBODIA-THAILAND CEASEFIRE: The administration, meanwhile, is taking a victory lap after working with Malay counterparts to stop fighting between Cambodia and Thailand.
'President Trump and I are committed to an immediate cessation of violence and expect the governments of Cambodia and Thailand to fully honor their commitments to end this conflict,' Secretary of State MARCO RUBIO said in a statement today. 'The United States will remain committed to and engaged in this U.S.-Malaysia-organized process to end this conflict.'
Trump was more explicit in his gloating. 'I have now ended many Wars in just six months — I am proud to be the President of PEACE!' the president wrote on Truth Social today.
Trump announced the ceasefire over the weekend in a Truth Social post, indicating he used the threat of tariffs as leverage over Cambodia and Thailand to pause fighting. The conflict, which began in July and has killed dozens of civilians, had placed the U.S. in a tricky position given its links to both countries.
LAI'S LAYOVER BLUES: Taiwan's President LAI CHING-TE has canceled plans to visit Paraguay next month — and White House concerns about U.S.-China relations may be to blame.
Taiwan's Presidential Office announced Monday that Lai 'currently has no plans to go on an overseas visit' and would instead focus on domestic issues including recovery from a recent typhoon, per Taiwan state media. That's an abrupt reversal of Lai's plans to travel to the South American country — one of the self-governing island's 12 remaining diplomatic allies — in early August, per the South China Morning Post and a person familiar with Lai's itinerary granted anonymity due to its sensitivity.
The diplomatic problem for Washington and Beijing was that Lai planned to make stopovers in New York City en route to Asunción and in Dallas on his way home. Those visits have become standard for Taiwanese officials traveling to allied Latin American countries and usually include speeches at sympathetic think tanks and protests by pro-China activists. The Trump administration was holding off on green lighting Lai's stopover due to concerns that it could inflame Beijing, as the two countries navigate fragile trade talks and planning for a possible meeting between Trump and Chinese leader XI JINPING in Beijing later this year, per Bloomberg and a second person familiar, granted anonymity to detail sensitive internal discussions.
The Chinese government is highly sensitive about Taiwanese officials visiting U.S. soil, since Beijing claims sovereignty over the self-governed island. China's Foreign Ministry accused Washington of being 'bent on using Taiwan to contain China' when then-Vice President Lai transited through New York en route to Paraguay in 2023. Neither the State Department nor the White House responded to requests for comment on its position on Lai's possible visit.
THE MIGRATION ACE FACTOR? Two top Biden administration officials issued a report with the Brookings Institution that functionally serves as a postmortem on the last administration's migration policy.
The report was written by MARCELA ESCOBARI, the former special assistant to the president and coordinator for the Los Angeles Declaration on Migration and Protection; and ALEX BROCKWEHL former director for migration cooperation at the National Security Council. The report argues that while the Biden administration succeeded in boosting cooperation in the Western Hemisphere on migration and creating new pathways for migrants, its approach didn't quickly enough meet the needs of cities on the frontlines of a major influx of migrants. The two officials also fault the administration's messaging, arguing they let Republicans dictate the terms of the debate.
'Explaining the interplay between lawful pathways, enforcement, and regional coordination earlier and more forcefully, and continuing to explain in the clearest possible terms what the administration was doing, was a gamble worth trying,' Escobari and Brockwehl wrote. 'Instead, the administration largely played defense, allowing media outlets and opposing politicians to define the narrative.'
The report suggests that at least one school of Democratic policy hands is pushing to rethink Democrats' migration messaging when they return to power, as opposed to embracing tougher border policies to recoup ground lost to Republicans in border states. And the messaging crowd may look to convince Americans that creating more legal pathways for migration to the United States will help boost national security.
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Keystrokes
A DIFFERENT KIND OF H20: A group of former officials and analysts is calling on the Commerce Department to restrict China's access to H20 technology — and no they're not referring to the chemical formula for water.
Twenty conservative China policy voices called on Commerce Secretary HOWARD LUTNICK to reimpose export controls that kept Chinese firms from purchasing AI giant NVIDIA's H20 chips. They warned the Trump administration's decision to relax export controls against Beijing imposed by the Biden administration represents 'a strategic misstep that endangers the U.S. economic and military edge in AI.'
The signatories include American Compass founder OREN CASS, former deputy national security adviser MATT POTTINGER and former Army Undersecretary BRAD CARSON. The open letter highlights a growing split in Republican policy circles with the White House over how to counter Beijing's growing influence over artificial intelligence technology, as the Trump administration has moved to deregulate the sector under the auspices of boosting American innovation.
The Complex
QATAR JET FUMING: The Freedom of the Press Foundation today sued the Justice Department for failing to release a legal memo that supposedly justified the Trump administration's acceptance of a $400 million jet from the Qatari government to serve as Air Force One, our own Joe Gould writes in.
The Freedom of Information Act lawsuit, filed in U.S. District Court in Washington and backed by the watchdog group American Oversight, seeks the release of a May memorandum said to be signed by Attorney General PAM BONDI. The memo allegedly cleared the way for the administration to accept the luxury aircraft, which is expected to be retrofitted for presidential use at taxpayer expense and later sent to Trump's private foundation.
The deal has drawn bipartisan criticism and raised concerns about potential violations of the Constitution's Foreign Emoluments Clause — and federal ethics laws.
This is precisely the kind of corrupt arrangement that public records laws are designed to expose,' said CHIOMA CHUKWU, the executive director of American Oversight. 'The DOJ cannot sit on its hands and expect the American people to wait years for the truth while serious questions about corruption, self-dealing, and foreign influence go unanswered.'
ICYMI: 'They're consolidating power': Navy secretary's staff try to undercut incoming deputy by our own Jack Detsch, Paul McLeary, Daniel Lippman and Joe
Broadsides
EUROPEAN TRADE DEAL ANGST: Paris and Budapest don't agree often when it comes to the future of Europe — but they're uniting in opposition to a trade deal the EU reached with the United States over the weekend.
French Prime Minister FRANÇOIS BAYROU today said that the deal reflects EU 'submission' to Trump. Meanwhile Hungarian Prime Minister VIKTOR ORBÁN called European Commission President URSULA VON DER LEYEN a 'featherweight' negotiator who Trump ate for lunch in the trade talks.
And dissent from within the bloc may not be the only challenge for von der Leyen. EU officials acknowledged today that Europe may not be able to meet the $600 billion investment target it set, since the investments would come exclusively from the private sector.
The deal's success will likely be critical for the future of the U.S.-EU relationship while Trump remains in office. He has directed considerable fire toward Brussels and European partners in general for allegedly freeloading off the United States for their security.
Transitions
FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY –– The Heritage Foundation today announced it is creating a 'Defense Advisory Panel' of 13 retired General and Flag Officers to counsel its Allison Center for National Security. The panel's members are Navy Rear Adm. DONALD P. LOREN; Navy Rear Adm. VICTORINO G. MERCADO; Coast Guard Rear Adm. PETE BROWN; Coast Guard Vice Adm. WILLIAM 'DEAN' LEE; Army Lt. Gen. WILLIAM G. BOYKIN; Army Lt. Gen, DENNIS D. CAVIN; Army Brig. Gen. MITCHELL M. ZAIS; Army Brig. Gen. CHRIS PETTY; Army Brig. Gen. ERNEST C. AUDINO; Army Maj. Gen. JOHN DEYERMOND; Air Force Maj. Gen. RICHARD PERRAUT; Marine Corps Maj. Gen. JAMES S. HARTSELL; Marine Corps Maj. Gen. JOAQUIN MALAVET;
FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY – SOHAN DASGUPTA is now a top official for the Millennium Challenge Corporation, our Daniel Lippman reports. Dasgupta, a Trump political appointee, was in a recent photo meeting at the MCC with a visiting Liberian minister. He most recently was assistant secretary for trade and economic security at the Department of Homeland Security, where he was fired in April due to poor performance.
— Controversial conservative activist DARREN BEATTIE was named president of the U.S. Institute of Peace, our colleague Jacob Wendler reported Friday.
— DAVID 'TURK' TURKOVIC has been appointed the Defense Department's deputy comptroller for budget and appropriations. He most recently served as principal for national security policy at Lewis-Burke Associates and previously led industrial policy efforts at the Aerospace Industries Association.
— NEAL URWITZ, former senior vice president at Antenna Group and speechwriter to then-Navy Secretary CARLOS DEL TORO, is now CEO of Enduring Cause Strategies and a senior adviser at Del Toro Global Associates.
— CHRIS LYNCH is now a special assistant to the president and deputy director of presidential correspondence at the White House. He most recently was an administrative and national security law attorney in the 3rd infantry division of the U.S. Army in Fort Stewart, Georgia.
— Former deputy assistant secretary of State for Iraq and Iran VICTORIA TAYLOR will lead the Atlantic Council's Iraq Initiative. A career foreign service officer, Taylor has served in a variety of roles on the National Security Council and at the State Department.
What to Read
— Rachael Bade, POLITICO: Trump 2.0 doesn't like drama. So why's he swallowing so many bad headlines about Hegseth?
— David Remnick, The New Yorker: Israel's Zones of Denial
— Alex Gray, The Telegraph: Diego Garcia is vital to stopping China. Britain's Chagos deal needlessly puts it at risk
— Oliver Dunn and Josef Skrdlik, New Lines Magazine: When a Dutch Drug Kingpin Needed a New Base, Sierra Leone Welcomed Him With Open Arms
Tomorrow Today
— Inter-American Dialogue, 9 a.m.: China's Global Security Initiative in Latin America
— Atlantic Council, 10:30 a.m.: One Year Later: Venezuela's Presidential Election and the Road Ahead
— Center for Strategic and International Studies, 11 a.m.: Stabilizing Syria: Rehabilitating Syria's Public Health System in a Fragile Transition
— Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1 p.m.: Threat Politics: Promise and Peril
— Israel Policy Forum, 2 p.m: Gaza's Humanitarian Emergency
— J Street, 3 p.m.: Israeli Voices Against the War
— George Washington University, 8 p.m.: China Connections: Bridging Generations of U.S.-China Education Exchange: American Scholars to China
Thanks to our editors, Rosie Perper and Rachel Myers, who also shouldn't have access to H20 (both the water kind and the chip kind).