Elliott Wave Live: US Inflation Data Ready To Break The USD Range
One of the key events this week will be the US CPI data on Wednesday, with expectations for no change at 2.9%. I believe this is another piece of the puzzle that may help provide a clearer picture of what the Fed could do next with rates, especially after Friday's mixed NFP data, where fewer jobs were created but unemployment fell to 4%.
From an Elliott wave perspective, the Dollar Index still appears poised for more weakness after the current rebound, which is unfolding in three legs. Right now, the price is testing the first key resistance around 108.30. If the price remains sideways or even pushes toward the higher resistance near 109, there's a chance we could see a bullish triangle remain in play until Wednesday's CPI report, which could finally trigger a major breakout from current dollar's range, hopefully to the downside.
Grega
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CBC
an hour ago
- CBC
Trump announces trade deal with Japan that would see 15% tariff on all goods
U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday said the U.S. and Japan have struck a deal that will lower the hefty tariffs Trump had threatened to impose on goods from its Asian ally while extracting commitments for Japan to invest $550 billion US in the United States and open its markets to American goods. The agreement — including a 15 per cent tariff on all imported Japanese goods, down from a proposed 25 per cent — is the most significant of the string of trade deals the White House has reached ahead of an approaching Aug. 1 deadline for higher levies to kick in. "This is a very exciting time for the United States of America, and especially for the fact that we will continue to always have a great relationship with the Country of Japan," Trump said on his Truth Social platform. Industry and government officials briefed on the agreement said the deal also lowers the tariff to 15 per cent from 25 per cent on Japanese autos, which account for more than a quarter of all the country's exports to the U.S. Trump's announcement followed a meeting with Japan's top tariff negotiator, Ryosei Akazawa, at the White House on Tuesday, according to a person familiar with the matter. "#Mission Complete," Akazawa wrote on the social media platform X. North American automakers raise alarm Two-way trade between the two countries totalled nearly $230 billion US in 2024, with Japan running a trade surplus of nearly $70 billion US. Japan is the fifth-largest U.S. trading partner in goods, U.S. Census Bureau data shows. The announcement sent stocks in Japan higher, led by big gains in automakers. Honda, Toyota and Nissan all gained eight per cent or more, and U.S. equity index futures gained ground. The yen strengthened against the American dollar. But U.S. automakers signalled their unhappiness with the deal, raising concerns about a trade regime that could cut tariffs on auto imports from Japan to 15 per cent while leaving tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico at 25 per cent. Matt Blunt, who heads the American Automotive Policy Council, which represents General Motors, Ford and Chrysler-parent company Stellantis, said that "any deal that charges a lower tariff for Japanese imports with virtually no U.S. content than the tariff imposed on North American-built vehicles with high U.S. content is a bad deal for U.S. industry and U.S. autoworkers." Reuters could not immediately confirm the elements of the deal announced by Trump, and details were scant. The White House did not immediately respond to a request for additional details. Speaking early on Wednesday in Tokyo, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said he had received an initial report from his trade negotiator in Washington but declined to comment on the specifics of the negotiation. Ishiba is under intense political pressure in Japan, where the ruling coalition was set back by losing control of the upper house in an election on Sunday. He said he couldn't say how a trade deal would affect his decision on whether to step down from office until he saw the details. Announcement follows Trump pattern Trump's announcement on Tuesday was of a pattern with some previous agreements. He announced the deal on social media shortly after a meeting or a phone call with a foreign official, leaving many key details a mystery — and before the other country issued its own proclamations. Nearly three weeks after Trump announced an agreement with Vietnam — in similar fashion — no formal statement has been released by either country spelling out the particulars of the deal that was ostensibly reached. LNG joint venture Speaking later Tuesday evening at the White House, Trump also expressed fresh optimism that Japan would form a joint venture with the U.S. to support a gas pipeline in Alaska long sought by his administration. "We concluded the one deal ... and now we're going to conclude another one because they're forming a joint venture with us at, in Alaska, as you know, for the LNG," Trump told lawmakers at the White House. "They're all set to make that deal now." Japanese officials had initially doubted the practicality of the project but warmed to it — and a range of other investments dear to Trump — as a potential incentive to resolve trade disputes with Washington. Trump aides are feverishly working to close trade deals ahead of an Aug. 1 deadline that the president has repeatedly pushed back under pressure from markets and intense lobbying by industry. By that date, countries are set to face steep new tariffs beyond those Trump has already imposed since taking office in January. While Trump has said that unilateral letters declaring what rate would be imposed are tantamount to a deal, his team has nonetheless raced to close agreements. Trump has announced framework agreements with Britain, Vietnam, Indonesia and paused a tit-for-tat tariff battle with China, though details are still to be worked out with all of those countries.
Toronto Star
an hour ago
- Toronto Star
Why a bad deal on tariffs with Donald Trump is worse than no deal
Donald Trump's tariff ultimatums move around a lot, earning him the hated nickname TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out). His latest deadline is to reach trade 'deals' (actually, non-binding memoranda, not conventional treaties) with more than 100 countries, including Canada, by Aug. 1. Whether he sticks to that timeline or not, our federal government is already preparing Canadians to accept a deal that does not remove Trump's tariffs on Canada. Those tariffs currently target autos, steel, aluminum, and copper, as well as a threatened across-the-board 35 per cent tariff on everything else. Opinion articles are based on the author's interpretations and judgments of facts, data and events. More details
Globe and Mail
3 hours ago
- Globe and Mail
Keep it up, nasty Canadians
When four Canada-friendly, non-MAGA U.S. senators came to Ottawa to meet Prime Minister Mark Carney this week, Oregon's Ron Wyden advised Canada to de-escalate trade tensions by quickly making permanent changes to tax laws the U.S. doesn't like. But elsewhere, Donald Trump's ambassador to Canada, Pete Hoekstra, said Canadians are 'mean and nasty' because they took U.S. liquor off store shelves and cancelled vacations south of the border. So which one do you think worries Mr. Trump more? It's not Canadian tax laws, or retaliatory tariffs – those are the things that the U.S. can push back on with threats of their own. It's the stuff Mr. Hoekstra, exhibiting a mind-boggling lack of self-awareness, calls 'nasty.' It is Canadian customers rejecting U.S. products. There are talks on now to reach some kind of trade deal with Mr. Trump's administration, with a supposed Aug. 1 deadline. But even if there is a deal, you can bet it won't be the end of trade disputes with Mr. Trump. The nasty things that Mr. Hoekstra complains about could be the best tool that Canada has. The U.S. President likes to brag that he's holding the cards, and there is truth to that, especially when it comes to government-to-government negotiations. The U.S. has the bigger market and an economy less dependent on trade. That's why Mr. Carney gave in last month and paused collection of Canada's digital services tax (DST) when Mr. Trump broke off trade talks, citing the levy. It's why Ontario Premier Doug Ford caved on his March threat to add a 25-per-cent surcharge to electricity, after Mr. Trump said he'd retaliate by raising steel tariffs to 50 per cent. (Mr. Trump later did that, anyway.) On Tuesday, Mr. Ford called for 'dollar-for-dollar' retaliatory tariffs against the U.S., but other premiers were not so gung-ho. Yet the premiers – and Mr. Carney – did encourage the consumer boycotts: 'Keep it up,' British Columbia Premier David Eby said. Good advice. And there is still zeal for it among Canadians. Tony Keller: Trump's trade policy is completely nonsensical, and entirely clear 'We're not getting as much coverage in the Canadian media, but I keep my eyes on what the U.S. press is saying, and they are starting to really notice massive drops,' said former New Democratic MP Charlie Angus, now a 'Resistance' ringleader who writes Substack essays and speaks at boycott rallies. U.S. alcohol sales have been hit. American exports of food to Canada amounted to US$28-billion in 2024, but Mr. Angus noted that some grocery stores pulled many U.S. products from their shelves. He argued that ordinary Canadians have more tools to pressure the U.S. than political leaders. Canadians expected Mark Carney to be a tough-talking, 'wartime' prime minister, Mr. Angus said, but 'we haven't seen that.' But he also said he realizes Mr. Carney is trying to navigate the complexities of 'dealing with a gangster regime' in Washington. 'This is where the power of the boycott is a unique political lever, because Mark Carney or Doug Ford or Daniel Smith can't tell people to stop the boycott,' Mr. Angus said. The senators who met Mr. Carney on Monday – three Democrats and Alaska Republican Lisa Murkowski, a moderate swing vote in the U.S. Senate – declared their friendship and conceded that the boycott has had an impact. 'We are seeing a decrease in the travel from Canadians to Nevada,' Nevada Senator Catherine Cortez Masto said. New Hampshire Senator Maggie Hassan even said, 'We miss you.' That's nice. The senators had suggestions on how to settle the issue, such as Canada permanently rescinding the DST. But they didn't seem to include living up to past U.S. trade commitments – or stopping aggressive U.S. attacks on Canada's economy. Mr. Trump, after all, has said he wants the U.S. to imposes tariffs on Canadian autos so that it becomes uneconomical to make them in this country. That's pretty nasty. It isn't easy for Canadian political leaders to counter that kind of strong-arming. But Canadian consumers can have an impact as long as they keep being nasty.
