Elliott Wave Live: US Inflation Data Ready To Break The USD Range
One of the key events this week will be the US CPI data on Wednesday, with expectations for no change at 2.9%. I believe this is another piece of the puzzle that may help provide a clearer picture of what the Fed could do next with rates, especially after Friday's mixed NFP data, where fewer jobs were created but unemployment fell to 4%.
From an Elliott wave perspective, the Dollar Index still appears poised for more weakness after the current rebound, which is unfolding in three legs. Right now, the price is testing the first key resistance around 108.30. If the price remains sideways or even pushes toward the higher resistance near 109, there's a chance we could see a bullish triangle remain in play until Wednesday's CPI report, which could finally trigger a major breakout from current dollar's range, hopefully to the downside.
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Calgary Herald
17 minutes ago
- Calgary Herald
US, China negotiators meet in Stockholm to extend trade truce
Article content While China has denied its responsibility for the flow of the deadly drug, last month it tightened controls over two chemicals that can be used to make the opioid. Earlier this month, Trump praised those moves. 'China has been helping out,' he told reporters. 'We're talking to them and they're making big steps.' Article content For the US, the recent Chinese actions aren't enough, as such moves were required to comply with United Nations measures, according to a person familiar with the trade talks. Chances of reducing the 20% tariff in this round of talks are very slim, added the person who asked not to be identified discussing sensitive matters, while noting everything could change on Trump's whim. Article content China would be willing to cooperate more on fentanyl, said Sun Chenghao, a professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. But the US would have to remove the related tariffs, stop blaming Beijing for what it sees as a US domestic problem and provide concrete evidence of crimes, he said. Article content Article content The US business community remains hopeful for progress, with Sean Stein, president of the US-China Business Council, telling Bloomberg TV that movement on fentanyl presents the 'biggest opportunity' in talks. Article content 'That then lowers tariffs on the US side, which then opens the door for China to lower tariffs that lets us sell agriculture, lets us sell airplanes, lets us sell automobiles, that let's us sell energy,' he said. Article content Oil Purchases Article content In his comments announcing the talks, Bessent indicated negotiations can now take on a broader array of topics, potentially including Beijing's continued purchases of sanctioned oil from Russia and Iran. Article content Chinese state media has already pushed back against that idea. 'China won't play along' with such attempts to use China to kill Russia's economy, Lv Xiang, a US expert with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences last week told the state-run tabloid Global Times. Article content Article content By contrast, China's imports of three major energy products from the US hit almost zero in June, marking the first time in almost three years the Asian nation didn't import any crude oil from its top rival. Deliveries of American crude oil, liquefied natural gas and coal have been subject to Chinese tariffs of 10% to 15% since February. Article content Xi's government has begun rolling back some of its other retaliatory measures since the two sides met last month in London. Crucially, Beijing has boosted shipments of rare earth magnets, while the US relaxed restrictions on sales of less-advanced semiconductors to China. Article content In another potential goodwill gesture, as the Sweden talks were announced this month, China revealed it had suspended an antitrust investigation into the local unit of US chemical manufacturer DuPont de Nemours Inc.
Winnipeg Free Press
17 minutes ago
- Winnipeg Free Press
US and China to talk in Stockholm on trade with eye on Trump-Xi summit later this year
WASHINGTON (AP) — When top U.S. and Chinese officials meet in Stockholm, they are almost certain to agree to at least leaving tariffs at the current levels while working toward a meeting between their presidents later this year for a more lasting trade deal between the world's two largest economies, analysts say. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng are set to hold talks for the third time this year — this round in the Swedish capital, nearly four months after President Donald Trump upset global trade with his sweeping tariff proposal, including an import tax that shot up to 145% on Chinese goods. 'We have the confines of a deal with China,' Trump said Friday before leaving for Scotland. Bessent told MSNBC on Wednesday that the two countries after talks in Geneva and London have reached a 'status quo,' with the U.S. taxing imported goods from China at 30% and China responding with a 10% tariff, on top of tariffs prior to the start of Trump's second term. 'Now we can move on to discussing other matters in terms of bringing the economic relationship into balance,' Bessent said. He was referring to the U.S. running a $295.5 billion trade deficit last year. The U.S. seeks an agreement that would enable it to export more to China and shift the Chinese economy more toward domestic consumer spending. The Chinese embassy in Washington said Beijing hopes 'there will be more consensus and cooperation and less misperception' coming out of the talks. With an eye on a possible leaders' summit, Stockholm could provide some answers as to the timeline and viability of that particular goal ahead of a possible meeting between Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping. 'The meeting will be important in starting to set the stage for a fall meeting between Trump and Xi,' said Wendy Cutler, a former U.S. trade negotiator and now vice president at the Asia Society Policy Institute. 'Beijing will likely insist on detailed preparations before they agree to a leaders' meeting.' In Stockholm, the two sides are likely to focus on commercial announcements to be made at a leaders' summit as well as agreements to address 'major irritants,' such as China's industrial overcapacity and its lack of control over chemicals used to make fentanyl, also to be announced when Xi and Trump should meet, Cutler said. Sean Stein, president of the U.S.-China Business Council, said Stockholm could be the first real opportunity for the two governments to address structural reform issues including market access in China for U.S. companies. What businesses will be seeking coming out of Stockholm would largely be 'the atmosphere' — how the two sides characterize the discussions. They will also look for clues about a possible leaders' summit because any real deal will hinge on the two presidents meeting each other, he said. Fentanyl-related tariffs are likely a focus for China In Stockholm, Beijing will likely demand the removal of the 20% fentanyl-related tariff that Trump imposed earlier this year, said Sun Yun, director of the China program at the Washington-based Stimson Center. This round of the U.S.-China trade dispute began with fentanyl, when Trump in February imposed a 10% tariff on Chinese goods, citing that China failed to curb the outflow of the chemicals used to make the drug. The following month, Trump added another 10% tax for the same reason. Beijing retaliated with extra duties on some U.S. goods, including coal, liquefied natural gas, and farm products such as beef, chicken, pork and soy. In Geneva, both sides climbed down from three-digit tariffs rolled out following Trump's 'Liberation Day' tariffs in April, but the U.S. kept the 20% 'fentanyl' tariffs, in addition to the 10% baseline rate — to which China responded by keeping the same 10% rate on U.S. products. These across-the-board duties were unchanged when the two sides met in London a month later to negotiate over non-tariff measures such as export controls on critical products. The Chinese government has long protested that American politicians blame China for the fentanyl crisis in the U.S. but argued the root problem lies with the U.S. itself. Washington says Beijing is not doing enough to regulate precursor chemicals that flow out of China into the hands of drug dealers. In July, China placed two fentanyl ingredients under enhanced control, a move seen as in response to U.S. pressure and signaling goodwill. Gabriel Wildau, managing director at the consultancy Teneo, said he doesn't expect any tariff to go away in Stockholm but that tariff relief could be part of a final trade deal. 'It's possible that Trump would cancel the 20% tariff that he has explicitly linked with fentanyl, but I would expect the final tariff level on China to be at least as high as the 15-20% rate contained in the recent deals with Japan, Indonesia, Vietnam,' Wildau said. US wants China to dump less, buy less oil from Russia and Iran China's industrial overcapacity is as much a headache for the United States as it is for the European Union. Even Beijing has acknowledged the problem but suggested it might be difficult to address. America's trade imbalance with China has decreased from a peak of $418 billion in 2018, according to the Census Bureau. But China has found new markets for its goods and as the world's dominant manufacturer ran a global trade surplus approaching $1 trillion last year — somewhat larger than the size of the U.S. overall trade deficit in 2024. And China's emergence as a manufacturer of electric vehicles and other emerging technologies has suddenly made it more of a financial and geopolitical threat for those same industries based in the U.S., Europe, Japan and South Korea. 'Some enterprises, especially manufacturing enterprises, feel more deeply that China's manufacturing capabilities are too strong, and Chinese people are too hardworking. Factories run 24 hours a day,' Chinese Premier Li Qiang said on Thursday when hosting European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in Beijing. 'Some people think this will cause some new problems in the balance of supply and demand in world production.' 'We see this problem too,' Li said. Bessent also said the Stockholm talks could address Chinese purchases of Russian and Iranian oil. However, Wildau of Teneo said China could demand some U.S. security concessions in exchange, such as a reduced U.S. military presence in East Asia and scaled-back diplomatic support for Taiwan and the Philippines. This would likely face political pushback in Washington. Monday Mornings The latest local business news and a lookahead to the coming week. The Stockholm talks will be 'geared towards building a trade agreement based around Chinese purchase commitments and pledges of investment in the U.S. in exchange for partial relief from U.S. tariffs and export controls,' Wildau said. He doubts there will be a grand deal. Instead, he predicts 'a more limited agreement based around fentanyl.' 'That,' he said, 'is probably the preferred outcome for China hawks in the Trump administration, who worry that an overeager Trump might offer too much to Xi.' ___ Associated Press writer Paul Wiseman contributed to this report
Vancouver Sun
4 hours ago
- Vancouver Sun
Trump and EU strike deal for 15 per cent tariffs on most goods, avoiding trade war
The United States and the European Union agreed on Sunday to a trade framework setting a 15 per cent tariff on most goods, staving off — at least for now — far higher imports on both sides that might have sent shockwaves through economies around the globe. The sweeping announcement came after President Donald Trump and European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen met briefly at Trump's Turnberry golf course in Scotland. Their private sit-down culminated months of bargaining, with the White House deadline Friday nearing for imposing punishing tariffs on the EU's 27-member countries. 'It was a very interesting negotiation. I think it's going to be great for both parties,' Trump said. The agreement, he said, was 'a good deal for everybody' and 'a giant deal with lots of countries.' Start your day with a roundup of B.C.-focused news and opinion. By signing up you consent to receive the above newsletter from Postmedia Network Inc. A welcome email is on its way. If you don't see it, please check your junk folder. The next issue of Sunrise will soon be in your inbox. Please try again Interested in more newsletters? Browse here. Von der Leyen said the deal 'will bring stability, it will bring predictability, that's very important for our businesses on both sides of the Atlantic.' Many facets will require more work As with other recent tariff agreements that Trump announced with countries including Japan and the United Kingdom, some major details remain pending in this one. Trump said the EU had agreed to buy some $750 billion worth of U.S. energy and invest $600 billion more than it already is in America — as well as make a major military equipment purchase. He said tariffs 'for automobiles and everything else will be a straight across tariff of 15 per cent' and meant that U.S. exporters 'have the opening up of all of the European countries.' Von der Leyen said the 15 per cent tariffs were 'across the board, all inclusive' and that 'indeed, basically the European market is open.' At a later news conference away from Turnberry, she said that the $750 billion in additional U.S. energy purchases was actually over the next three years — and would help ease the dependence on natural gas from Russia among the bloc's countries. 'When the European Union and the United States work together as partners, the benefits are tangible,' Von der Leyen said, noting that the agreement 'stabilized on a single, 15 per cent tariff rate for the vast majority of EU exports,' including cars, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals. '15 per cent is a clear ceiling,' she said. But von der Leyen also clarified that such a rate wouldn't apply to everything, saying that both sides agreed on 'zero for zero tariffs on a number of strategic products,' like all aircraft and component parts, certain chemicals, certain generic drugs, semiconductor equipment, some agricultural products, natural resources and critical raw materials. It is unclear if alcohol will be included in that list. 'And we will keep working to add more products to this list,' she said, while also stressing that the 'framework means the figures we have just explained to the public, but, of course, details have to be sorted out. And that will happen over the next weeks' Further EU approval needed In the meantime, there will be work to do on other fronts. Von der Leyen had a mandate to negotiate because the European Commission handles trade for member countries. But the Commission should now present the deal to member states and EU lawmakers — who will ultimately decide whether or not to approve it. Before their meeting began, Trump pledged to change what he characterized as 'a very one-sided transaction, very unfair to the United States.' 'I think both sides want to see fairness,' the Republican president told reporters. Von der Leyen said the U.S. and EU combined have the world's largest trade volume, encompassing hundreds of millions of people and trillions of dollars and added that Trump was 'known as a tough negotiator and dealmaker.' 'But fair,' Trump said. Trump has spent months threatening most of the world with large tariffs in hopes of shrinking major U.S. trade deficits with many key trading partners. More recently, he had hinted that any deal with the EU would have to 'buy down' a tariff rate of 30 per cent that had been set to take effect. But during his comments before the agreement was announced, the president was asked if he'd be willing to accept tariff rates lower than 15 per cent, and said 'no.' First golf, then trade talk Their meeting came after Trump played golf for the second straight day at Turnberry, this time with a group that included sons Eric and Donald Jr. In addition to negotiating deals, Trump's five-day visit to Scotland is built around golf and promoting properties bearing his name. A small group of demonstrators at the course waved American flags and raised a sign criticizing British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who plans his own Turnberry meeting with Trump on Monday. Other voices could be heard cheering and chanting 'Trump! Trump!' as he played nearby. On Tuesday, Trump will be in Aberdeen, in northeastern Scotland, where his family has another golf course and is opening a third next month. The president and his sons plan to help cut the ribbon on the new course. The U.S. and EU seemed close to a deal earlier this month, but Trump instead threatened the 30 per cent tariff rate. The deadline for the Trump administration to begin imposing tariffs has shifted in recent weeks but is now firm and coming Friday, the administration insists. 'No extensions, no more grace periods. Aug. 1, the tariffs are set, they'll go into place, Customs will start collecting the money and off we go,' U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told 'Fox News Sunday' before the EU deal was announced. He added, however, that even after that 'people can still talk to President Trump. I mean, he's always willing to listen.' Without an agreement, the EU said it was prepared to retaliate with tariffs on hundreds of American products, ranging from beef and auto parts to beer and Boeing airplanes. If Trump eventually followed through on his threat of tariffs against Europe, meanwhile, it could have made everything from French cheese and Italian leather goods to German electronics and Spanish pharmaceuticals more expensive in the United States. 'I think it's great that we made a deal today, instead of playing games and maybe not making a deal at all,' Trump said. 'I think it's the biggest deal ever made.' — Associated Press writers Seung Min Kim in Cincinnati and Samuel Petrequin in London contributed to this report. Our website is the place for the latest breaking news, exclusive scoops, longreads and provocative commentary. Please bookmark and sign up for our daily newsletter, Posted, here .
