
Josh Brown thinks this brokerage stock is going 'way higher'

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CNBC
an hour ago
- CNBC
‘This market is pricing in perfection,' warns Verdence Capital CIO as tariff deadline looms
The market may be trading around record highs, but the Verdence Capital Advisors CIO is worried trouble is lurking. Megan Horneman, who oversees $4.1 billion in assets under management, thinks there's too much complacency around the Aug. 1 U.S. trade deadline. "This market is pricing in the perfect situation," she told CNBC's "Fast Money" on Monday. In addition to tariff concerns, she lists uncertainty regarding Federal Reserve policy and overbought conditions from a technical perspective as potential issues. "Once we see that [rate cuts] might be priced off the table, coinciding with the fact that we're not quite sure what's going to happen with the tariff perspective, I think you can see a bit of a valuation correction," said Horneman, who's a former Deutsche Bank senior investment strategist. Horneman is particularly concerned that technical levels are signaling overbought conditions in growth stocks — including Big Tech. "These are things that we think might upset the rally that we're seeing here," she said. Despite her short-term caution, Horneman considers herself a long-term bull and views pullbacks as opportunities. She lists international stocks among her top plays on market weakness. "I'd warn that right now, they're expensive from a valuation perspective [but] cheap compared to the U.S.," she said. "They've been underloved for way too long, and I think you're seeing some of that rotation just begin. I think that can continue." To navigate the uncertainty, her key advice to investors right now: Make sure you're allocated appropriately. "Fast Money" trader Guy Adami also sees concerns, citing the number of retail investors driving recent market gains."Just in terms of valuation, things have gotten a tad frothy here," he said on Monday's show. The S&P 500 closed at record highs every day last week. As of Friday's close, the index is 16% over the past three months while the tech-heavy Nasdaq is up 21% over the same period. The Nasdaq is also atDisclaimer


CNBC
5 hours ago
- CNBC
Two brokers vie to be Asia's Robinhood as Hong Kong expands crypto support
Stock analysts are getting excited about the potential boost to Asian crypto trading after Hong Kong's stablecoin bill takes effect on Friday. Stablecoins are virtual assets that reference government-issued, or fiat, currencies. Hong Kong's bill formalizes the process for financial companies to issue and manage the virtual assets, similar to the U.S. GENIUS Act . For now, Morgan Stanley analysts expect the main application for stablecoins centers around crypto trading, and say it could attract more institutional investors to the asset class. They view online brokerage Futu Holdings as the best play, and rate it overweight with a $164.25 price target. Citi analysts prefer its rival Up Fintech , also known as Tiger Brokers, and upgraded it to buy from neutral, according to a report published late on July 21. They maintained a neutral rating on Futu, citing the stock's recent run higher. Both companies, which listed in the U.S. in 2019 before Robinhood went public, operate online brokerages for trading stocks and cryptocurrencies. They have their roots in mainland China, but have evolved to focus more on Hong Kong and Singapore due to Beijing's capital controls and crypto bans. The crypto trading market in Hong Kong and Singapore is $640 billion large, even after accounting for competition from unlicensed mainstream crypto exchanges, the Citi analysts said. That positions Up Fintech and Futu to potentially see gains similar to those of Robinhood, the analysts said. They said a major support for Robinhood's stock surge in the last several months is the company's crypto trading revenue – the segment doubled in the first quarter from a year ago, far faster than Robinhood's 50% growth in overall revenue during that time. Crypto has also grown from 3% of Robinhood's total revenue to 21% between 2020 and 2024, the Citi report said. Robinhood is set to release earnings Wednesday local time. Up Fintech and Futu have not yet disclosed the date of their next earnings releases. The Citi analysts raised their price target on both stocks: to $14 from $9.50 for Up Fintech, and to $176 from $113 for Futu. Part of their additional optimism on Up Fintech comes from possible business opportunities with Avenir Group, an investment firm linked to the founder of bitcoin trading exchange Huobi. Avenir acquired a 5.9% stake in the stock in late April. "We see potential upside for TIGR if i) Avenir Group could use TIGR as the designated crypto exchange for OTC trading; ii) if Avenir Group could potentially use TIGR as its designated custodian bank, paying TIGR a higher custodian fee to help support TIGR's crypto biz development," Citi said. To be sure, there are many differences between the U.S. crypto environment and that of Hong Kong. In contrast to Beijing's more conservative stance in mainland China, Hong Kong, as a special administrative region of the country, has become the nation's test bed for remaining globally competitive in finance. Both Citi and Morgan Stanley analysts expect Hong Kong's stablecoin support to initially focus more on how the Chinese yuan can be used for international payments. But the region's bigger ambitions remain clear as U.S. President Donald Trump's son Eric is slated to headline a bitcoin conference in Hong Kong next month. —CNBC's Michael Bloom contributed to this report.


CNBC
10 hours ago
- CNBC
Global week ahead: Crunch time for trade talks as Trump's deadline nears
I think most would agree that the news cycle has been relentless for most of 2025, but certain stories do seem a little "Groundhog Day" at the moment. Earlier this month, I wrote about the conundrum facing the newsroom over how to approach President Donald Trump's then-trade talk deadline of July 9. Now, at the end of the month, we find ourselves in a similar position, but this time the date we are all watching is August 1. Why? Once again, it's another deadline for countries across the globe to try and agree a trade truce with the United States, with the European Union in particular focus this time round. Debate in the newsroom resurfaces … when is a deadline not a deadline? The week has become even trickier to predict, with talks between the U.S. and China now taking center stage in Stockholm on Monday and Tuesday — potentially further complicating the picture for Europe. A U.S. trade agreement with the European Union has seemed tantalizingly close, with CNBC's Silvia Amaro reporting that a 15% baseline tariff rate is the base-case scenario, according to an EU diplomat. These reports drove stock markets across Europe and the U.S. higher last week. On Friday, however, Trump told reporters there was only a "50-50 chance" of a deal. As CNBC's Holly Ellyatt explains, the EU is keeping its so-called "trade bazooka" — or Anti Coercion Instrument — warm in case an agreement is not reached by the August deadline. The corporate world is crying out for an agreement, piling pressure on the European Union to put an end to the uncertainty. Puma, VW, Michelin and other corporates across Europe have downgraded their outlooks citing the impact of tariffs and the ongoing pressure the restrictions are putting on these businesses. This week, all eyes will be on another raft of earnings from Europe, including banking giants UBS, Santander and Standard Chartered, drinks firm Heineken, pharma giant AstraZeneca and energy major Shell to name a few. On the data front, GDP growth rates for France, Spain, Germany and Italy will be released on Wednesday, providing insight into the wider impact of the market uncertainty. Last week, the tricky economic conditions saw the European Central Bank opt for a hawkish hold of the benchmark rate at 2%, with President Christine Lagarde saying the ECB is "in a good place to hold and watch how risks develop over the next few months." And so Friday August 1st will be a crucial date for market participants and corporates (and the newsroom)… until it isn't.