2025 John Deere Classic picks: Three long shots to back on PGA Tour this week

New York Post

18 hours ago

Gambling content 21+. The New York Post may receive an affiliate commission if you sign up through our links. Read our editorial standards for more information.
The John Deere Classic occupies a really tough spot on the PGA Tour calendar.
Not only is it scheduled on a holiday weekend, but it is also sandwiched between the U.S. Open and The Open Championship, it's been difficult to get star players to make the trip to the Quad Cities to play in the John Deere, as most opt to head across the pond early to get ready for the Scottish Open, which is the warmup for the year's final major.
This has led to the John Deere Classic boasting arguably the weakest field of any tournament on the PGA Tour calendar.
That may sound like bad news for casual golf fans, but it is terrific news for bettors.
In most PGA Tour events, you need to beat at least a few elite players to contend, but this tournament is headlined by Ben Griffin (16/1), Jason Day (25/1), Denny McCarthy (28/1), and J.T. Poston (30/1), and it is played on an easy course that won't intimidate any player in this field.
Last year's leaderboard featured 16 players who finished 20-under par or better.
All of this should level the playing field considerably, which is good news for those of us who like to sprinkle some long shots in the golf each week.
2025 John Deere Classic Picks
Max Homa (100/1, FanDuel): In a field like this, it's absolutely worth buying low on talented players who are out of form. Max Homa fits that bill.
A six-time winner on the PGA Tour, Homa has endured a nightmare 2025 season, but he has shown some faint signs of life over the last few months.
Homa missed five consecutive cuts going into the Masters, where he got off the schneid with a T12 finish.
Since then, Homa has made six of eight cuts, and though he hasn't contended for a trophy in that span, we know he has the ceiling to lap this field.
Put it this way, if Homa were not in the midst of a horrible year, he would be priced as one of the favorites to win this tournament.
Adam Schenk has three top-10 finishes at the John Deere Classic.
Getty Images
Adam Schenk (150/1, FanDuel): The bet on Homa is about his talent, but the bet on Adam Schenk is about his course history.
Schenk has three top-six finishes in his last four trips to the John Deere (not including a withdrawal), so you can excuse his poor form this season and bet on this being the perfect setup for him to pop.
Adam Hadwin (220/1, FanDuel): Similar to Homa, Adam Hadwin has more than enough talent to overwhelm this field and course.
The reason the Canadian is priced at 220/1 is because he's endured a rough 2025 campaign with just one top-10 finish, two top-25s, and five missed cuts in 18 starts.
Hadwin will need to find his form quickly to contend this week, but his ability to get white hot with his putter makes him a good fit on a course that puts a huge emphasis on the short game.
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.