Analysis: Lebanon intensifies efforts to have Syrian refugees go home

UPI

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With the Gaza war still raging and ongoing challenges to achieving lasting political settlements, the refugee crisis that has swept the Arab region remains far from over. Here, Palestinians bid farewell to relatives who were killed in an Israeli airstrike at Al-Shifa Hospital in Gaza City on Monday. Photo by Haitham Imad/EPA-EFE
BEIRUT, Lebanon, June 30 (UPI) -- Syrian refugees, who fled to Lebanon more than a decade ago to escape war, violence and persecution, have slowly begun to return home, encouraged by improved conditions after President Bashar Assad's ouster.
Firas al Saghir was among those who made the challenging decision to return, even though his house in the Khaldiyeh neighborhood of the largely destroyed Homs, Syria's third-largest city, was severely damaged and looted during the war.
Al Saghir, a 41-year-old plumber who sought refuge in Lebanon in 2013, opted to send his wife and three children first. Last week, he accompanied them to the official Lebanese border crossing at Joussieh, intending to enter Syria legally.
But he quickly changed his mind and arranged for their return through a nearby illegal crossing to avoid paying more than $300 to regularize their status, despite the fact that they would then be permanently banned from re-entering Lebanon.
"I choose the illegal way to save our money," Al-Saghir, who is preparing to join his family in the coming days, told UPI. "We decided to go back because it is safe now, but we don't know what could happen there and we might be forced to return to Lebanon. ... Then we will do that illegally."
Many refugees, like al-Saghir, were encouraged by Assad's ouster and the collapse of the Baath regime, the emergence of new leadership, the lifting of U.S. sanctions, the prospect of investment and reconstruction that could create numerous job opportunities, and the reduction or suspension of services by UNHCR, the U.N. Refugee Agency.
Lebanon, still struggling to recover from its 2019 financial crisis and the recent devastating Israel-Hezbollah war, has seized the momentum to intensify efforts to encourage more Syrians to return; aiming to repatriate between 300,000 and 400,000 people before the start of the school year.
"There is an opportunity for them to go back," Lebanese Social Affairs Minister Haneen Sayed told UPI, referring to the new conditions in Syria and Lebanon focused on facilitating the return of those living in makeshift camps, mostly along rivers in eastern Lebanon.
Sayed said the government approved the "principles" of a plan earlier this month that provides for an "organized return," under which Syrian refugees would gather at designated collection points and be transported into Syria for $100 per person. Others may choose to return independently.
Once in Syria, each returnee is expected to receive a one-time payment of $400, funded by international donors, according to a well-informed source within the ministerial committee overseeing the repatriation plan.
In addition, Lebanon's relevant ministries and security services are coordinating efforts to facilitate exit formalities and secure the necessary documents for returning refugees, Sayed said.
Lebanon continues to host a large Syrian refugee population, making it one of the countries with the highest number of refugees per capita in the world. This massive influx has placed immense strain on Lebanon's already fragile infrastructure, economy and social fabric, leading to increased poverty and pressure on resources.
The World Bank has estimated the annual cost of hosting Syrian refugees in Lebanon at nearly $1.5 billion, while Lebanese officials reported last year that the combined direct and indirect costs have amounted to $58 billion over the past 13 years.
According to UNHCR, an estimated 1.4 million Syrians and 11,380 refugees of other nationalities remain in Lebanon. Since Dec. 8, more than 177,000 Syrians are believed to have crossed from or through Lebanon into Syria, while 106,754 people have arrived in Lebanon during the same period.
Most of these new arrivals fled due to sectarian violence that erupted in Syria's coastal areas last March and unrest that later spread to Druze-controlled areas in the south.
To prevent newcomers and the return of those who had left, Sayed said the Lebanese Army has stepped up efforts to control the 230-mile Lebanese-Syrian border and to curb smuggling attempts.
UNHCR spokesperson Lisa Abou Khaled emphasized the need to benefit from "this historical momentum" to ensure refugees can return in bigger numbers, alleviating the pressures on Lebanon.
Abou Khaled said that 27% of Syrian refugees surveyed in Lebanon, Egypt, Jordan and Iraq said that they were planning to return to their country in the next 12 months, up from below 2% before the fall of the Assad regime.
This, she explained, comes against the backdrop of dire economic conditions in Syria, where nearly 16.5 million people or about 90% of the population require humanitarian assistance. In addition, more than over 7.4 million Syrians remain displaced within the country.
"For returns to be sustainable, Syria needs more than just peace; it needs a comprehensive approach for recovery, including jobs, schools, hospitals and basic services like electricity and clean water," she told UPI.
However, the recent funding freeze by the United States, compounded by broader donor shortfalls, has severely impacted the ability to deliver essential services to refugees and vulnerable Lebanese communities.
Such funding cuts come at a time when needs across the region, particularly in Lebanon and Syria, are at their highest levels in years due to the recent conflict and new wave of displacements, Abou Khaled said.
UNHCR, which was only 21% funded in Lebanon as of last May, will be forced to fully discontinue support for refugees' hospitalization costs by the end of the year. It is also phasing out education assistance, leaving 15,000 children without access to community-based learning and education retention support.
How can Lebanon support Syrian refugees who choose to remain in the country?
Lebanon can promote area-based development that benefits both local communities and refugees rather than focusing solely on refugee aid, according to Yeghia Tashjian, the Regional and International Affairs Cluster Coordinator at the Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy and International Affairs.
Tashjian said that Lebanon must also intensify its diplomatic efforts to pressure donor states to honor pledges and increase their humanitarian and development funding. He noted, however, that the willingness and readiness of global donors to support the stabilization and rebuilding of Syria and Lebanon are complex and influenced by a mix of political and economic considerations.
"Unfortunately, donor fatigue is growing, but there is no lack of resources -- rather, a lack of trust," he told UPI. "For both Syria and Lebanon, substantial global support exists in principle, but hinges on local political will and reform credibility. Without these, aid will remain partial, slow and insufficient for long-term stabilization and rebuilding."
Lebanon also would need to disarm Iran-backed Hezbollah to unlock international funds for its reconstruction. Otherwise, it will be further isolated and miss the opportunity of playing a transit role in launching reconstruction projects towards Syria, Tashjian warned.
Initial estimates reveal a staggering cost for rebuilding the Middle East that could range from $350 billion to $650 billion, including some $53 billion for Gaza, $11 billion for Lebanon and $400 billion for Syria.
With the Gaza war still raging and ongoing challenges to achieving lasting political settlements, the refugee crisis that has swept the Arab region remains far from over.
"The atrocities in Gaza are ongoing and the future of the status of Gaza has not been resolved, I am concerned that a refugee crisis may erupt as many Gazans would be forced from their homeland," Tashjian said.