Kathy Hochul's Chances of Beating Elise Stefanik For New York Governor
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources.
Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content.
Governor Kathy Hochul may face a tougher path to re-election in 2026 than many expected, polling suggest.
A new poll shows Hochul locked in a tight race with either Republican Representatives Elise Stefanik or Mike Lawler.
Why It Matters
New York has long favored Democratic candidates in statewide contests, yet recent polls suggest Republicans could be more competitive in 2026 than in past cycles. The close numbers between Hochul and her Republican rivals demonstrate growing voter discontent and could signal a rare opportunity for a Republican to capture the governor's mansion.
With New York's large electoral footprint and political influence, the outcome may have ripple effects for both state and national politics ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
Rep. Elise Stefanik, R-N.Y., leaves a House Republican Conference meeting with President Donald Trump on the budget reconciliation bill in the U.S. Capitol on Tuesday, May 20, 2025 and New York Governor Kathy Hochul...
Rep. Elise Stefanik, R-N.Y., leaves a House Republican Conference meeting with President Donald Trump on the budget reconciliation bill in the U.S. Capitol on Tuesday, May 20, 2025 and New York Governor Kathy Hochul attends the ground breaking for a new Midtown Bus Terminal on May 29, 2025 in New York City. More
AP
What To Know
Governor Kathy Hochul may still hold an edge over Republican Congresswoman Elise Stefanik in a potential 2026 matchup, but new polling paints a picture of a vulnerable incumbent facing growing dissatisfaction—and potentially a stronger GOP challenger in Representative Mike Lawler.
A new Harper Polling survey conducted May 7–9 among 600 likely voters, shared with the New York Post, found Hochul leading Stefanik by a wide margin on the initial ballot, 50.1 percent to 38.8 percent. That lead shrinks to just over three points, 46 percent to 42.6 percent, after voters were presented with information about each candidate's record.
By contrast, Hochul's lead over Lawler was significantly narrower: 48 percent to 41 percent initially, and just 44 percent to 43.4 percent when candidate records are considered—a virtual toss-up within the poll's ±4 percent margin of error.
Regionally, Lawler appears to outperform Stefanik in key battlegrounds. On Long Island, Lawler holds a 20-point lead over Hochul (55 percent to 35 percent), while Stefanik leads the governor 51 percent to 36 percent. In the Hudson Valley, Hochul leads Stefanik by 13 points, but only edges out Lawler by 5 points, a sign of his potential strength in the lower Hudson, where he currently represents New York's 17th congressional district (including Rockland County) in Congress. Both Republicans are neck-and-neck with Hochul in upstate areas including Stefanik's home turf of the Albany and North Country region, where each holds a narrow 1-point lead over the incumbent.
In New York City, Hochul maintains a commanding advantage in the poll, leading Stefanik by 41 points and Lawler by 35.
Despite these regional variances, the poll highlights deep dissatisfaction with the governor. Only 38 percent of voters polled approved of Hochul's job performance, while 59 percent disapprove. Just 29 percent of respondents said she deserves to be reelected, compared to 66 percent who would prefer someone else.
Stefanik has not yet announced a bid for New York Governor. Still, other polls show that she is locked in a tight race with Hochul.
Another poll, conducted by right-leaning firm co/efficient between May 1–2 among 1,163 likely voters, found Hochul in a statistical dead heat with Stefanik, leading 43 percent to 42 percent, with 15 percent undecided. That poll showed Hochul with even worse approval numbers: only 30 percent of voters approved of her job performance, and just 23 percent said she deserves reelection, while 63 percent said it's time for someone new.
In a hypothetical GOP primary tested by co/efficient, Stefanik was the clear favorite with 56 percent support, compared to just 9 percent for Lawler and 8 percent for Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman.
Still, Stefanik's overall popularity remains a potential liability. A Siena College poll conducted May 12–15 found Stefanik with just 25 percent favorability statewide, and only 45 percent of Republicans viewing her favorably.
That same poll showed just 36 percent of voters saying they'd reelect Hochul, while 55 percent preferred a different candidate. Even among Democrats, support for Hochul was lukewarm: 51 percent said they would reelect her, while 38 percent wanted someone else.
What People Are Saying
Denny Salas, former Washington, D.C., consultant, told Newsweek previously: "Anything can happen in politics, and a Republican like Elise Stefanik could have an opportunity to win in New York. I never buy the inevitability arguments when it pertains to party identification enrollments in a particular state like ours. To win, Stefanik will need to secure 35 to 40 percent of NYC, dominate Long Island, penetrate Westchester, and dominate the rest of New York in the rural areas to defeat Hochul."
Alex deGrasse, Stefanik senior campaign adviser, told The New York Post: "Elise is the strongest candidate—and frankly the only candidate—who can build upon the 2022 success of pro-Trump candidate Lee Zeldin and finally end the tyranny of Kathy Hochul."
What Happens Next
The gubernatorial primary and general election campaigns will intensify as candidates formalize their bids.
The New York gubernatorial election is scheduled for November 3, 2026, with future polling and campaign activity likely to clarify the competitive landscape.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
The Hill
42 minutes ago
- The Hill
Adams on Cuomo independent bid chatter: ‘I don't focus on what other candidates are doing'
New York City Mayor Eric Adams (D) on Friday brushed off talks of former Gov. Andrew Cuomo launching an independent bid, saying he's only focused on 'what I am doing.' 'I don't focus on what other candidates are doing. I focus on what I am doing,' Adams said during an appearance on CNN's 'The Lead' with Jake Tapper. 'I came from behind when I ran in 2021, I was head of 13-point deficit from the leading opponent in the race,' he told Tapper. 'And as you see, we were successful. I know I did campaign, I know how to speak to voters.' The mayor added, 'I'm a working class mayor. I'm a blue collar mayor, and I would resonate in the residents of this city. They see I'm one of them.' His comments come days after New York State Assembly member Zohran Mamdani seemed to edge out Cuomo in the Democratic mayoral primary — though results in the city's ranked-choice voting system are not final. Cuomo conceded to Mamdani, 33, after Tuesday's ballots were counted. Adams launched his own independent bid following the election. When asked if he's considered following in the mayor's footsteps, Cuomo told CBS News on Wednesday that he is 'assessing that landscape.' Mamdani also dismissed the chatter, saying he's 'not at all' concerned about that possibility. Asked about the self-proclaimed democratic socialist's perceived victory and what it means for the general election, Adams slammed the state lawmaker — who has lobbied for Palestine to become its own U.S.-recognized state — for being a 'pro-Hamas' candidate. 'I'm not competing against him only for what he's done and praising Hamas,' he told Tapper, a after highlighting the ways he believes Mamdani has backed the U.S.-designated terrorist organization amid its war with Israel. 'I'm competing against him because this is not a socialist city, and that much of what he's promising to people, which I think is really deplorable, people that are struggling like my family did of living without the means that we needed.' Adams earlier in the week also accused his opponent of being disingenuous. 'He's a snake oil salesman,' Adams told 'Fox & Friends' on Wednesday. 'He would say and do anything to get elected.' Tapper questioned the incumbent mayor on reports that he made a deal with the Trump administration to ramp up immigration enforcement in the Big Apple, following the Justice Department's decision to drop federal corruption charges against him. 'I never met the president prior to him running for office, never met in my life. He talked about the unfairness of the charges while he was on the campaign trail. And the first time we met, he also articulated the unfairness and the Justice Department used the same system that determines if someone should be indicted,' Adams said. 'They use that system to determine that I should not have been indicted, and the charges were dropped with prejudice,' he added. The mayor has denied the allegations in the past, even after several DOJ officials resigned following the Trump administration's move to drop the corruption charges.
an hour ago
Trump's so-called 'One Big Beautiful Bill' inches closer to vote
The Senate is working through the weekend as many Republican leaders try to pass President Trump's so-called 'One Big Beautiful Bill".
Miami Herald
an hour ago
- Miami Herald
Immigrant detentions in New Jersey and Pennsylvania hit highs not seen since 2011
The number of individuals arrested and held in New Jersey and Pennsylvania detention centers pending deportation hearings has risen to levels not seen since the early years of the Obama presidency, according to recently released government data. The detained population in New Jersey surged 451% since the end of April, when only 65 newly-arrested individuals were detained while awaiting deportation hearings. Pennsylvania's detained population crossed the 300 mark in March for the first time since 2011. As of May 31, ICE held 358 and 353 people, respectively, in New Jersey and Pennsylvania detention facilities who were detained that month as their deportation cases wound their way through immigration court. New Jersey's figure represents the highest number of such detentions by Immigration and Customs Enforcement in 14 years while Pennsylvania's is the highest in 16. The figures reflect the number of individuals detained in a given month pending removal proceedings who remain in detention at the end of the month in which they were detained. They are an undercount of detained individuals as they do not include people in so-called "expedited removal," a process by which immigration officers can deport noncitizens from the United States without a hearing before an immigration judge. President Donald Trump expanded the use of expedited removal upon returning to office. The figures were published by the Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse, or TRAC, a data gathering and research organization which regularly acquires and analyzes such data from the Executive Office for Immigration Review, or EOIR, and ICE through Freedom of Information Act requests and litigation. The data do not indicate which centers held the individuals but the 1,000-bed Delaney Hall immigration detention center in Newark began housing migrants on May 1. Jenny Garcia, a communications associate at Detention Watch Network, a national coalition that supports local communities trying to shut down local centers, has no doubt the increase is at least partly tied to the facility's opening. "When a detention center opens up within a state - within a community - ICE is going to fill those beds with local people - people in the tri-State Area," Garcia said. The Delaney facility, located in an industrial stretch along the Passaic River, has been dogged by controversy since before it even opened. The administration of Newark Mayor Ras Baraka in March filed a lawsuit and issued a stop-work order against GEO Group, the private prison company which operates the center under a 15-year contract with ICE worth $1 billion, claiming the company blocked city building inspectors from conducting required inspections. Baraka, a candidate in this month's Democratic primary for the state's governorship, was later arrested at a protest outside the center shortly after it began operating. Baraka is currently suing New Jersey U.S. Attorney Alina Habba for "false arrest and malicious prosecution." The U.S. Attorney's Office last week charged four Delaney Hall detainees with attempting to escape earlier in the month amid reports of late-arriving meals and other poor conditions at the facility. Garcia, whose group has held daily vigils outside of Delaney Hall since the center began holding migrants, said detainees have suffered from a lack of medical care and food, alternately freezing and boiling temperatures, and access to family and legal counsel. "We've seen clergy get denied. We've seen families get denied," Garcia said. "And, very concerningly, we've seen many, many lawyers get denied visits with their clients." A spokesperson for ICE's Newark field office did not respond to an email seeking comment on conditions at the facility and whether the agency has been making an effort to detain more individuals now that it's open. While Pennsylvania did not experience the same month-over-month surge in detentions that New Jersey did, the 353 individuals held in detention pending removal proceedings is the highest number since September 2009. The state's detained population has increased every month since last December and crossed the 300 mark in March for the first time since 2011. Peter Pedemonti, the co-director of the New Sanctuary Movement of Philadelphia, decried the increased detentions. "I hope everybody can look at those numbers and agree that those are 353 people who have been abducted out of our communities," Pedemonti said. "These are our are members of our community." The number of detained people in Pennsylvania has long been higher than that of New Jersey. Before May, the last time New Jersey's total exceeded that of Pennsylvania was March 2020. Part of that is the presence of the Moshannon Valley Processing Center. The former federal prison, located 30 miles northwest of State College, was repurposed as an ICE detention facility in 2021. The facility is run by Geo Group, the same private prison company that operates Delaney Hall, and has faced accusations of serious mistreatment of detainees. Activists have identified Moshannon as the ICE facility where detained Philadelphia residents are most often sent. Pedemonti said he expects Pennsylvania's numbers could rise even further based on anecdotal reports of increased arrests in recent weeks. "(ICE) is under tremendous pressure to produce numbers," Pedemonti said. "We've seen an uptick in the last three weeks (in arrests) in Philadelphia and before that was Norristown, and I'm sure we'll see that in the June (detention) numbers." A spokesperson for ICE's Philadelphia field office did not respond to an email seeking comment on whether the agency has recently been making an effort to detain more individuals. Copyright (C) 2025, Tribune Content Agency, LLC. Portions copyrighted by the respective providers.
