China's economy grows 5.3% in first half of 2025, momentum slowing amid trade tensions
After a strong start to the year with 5.4 per cent growth in the first quarter, the growth in the second quarter slowed to 5.2 per cent.
BEIJING – China's economy grew 5.3 per cent in the first half of 2025, official data showed on July 15, even as ongoing trade tensions with the United States slowed momentum in the second quarter.
The headline gross domestic product (GDP) figure for the first half of 2025 announced by China's National Bureau of Statistics is broadly in line with the government's full-year growth target of 'around 5 per cent'.
After a strong start to the year with 5.4 per cent growth in the first quarter, the growth in the second quarter slowed to 5.2 per cent, as trade tensions and prolonged property slump weigh down on the world's second-largest economy.
China has so far sidestepped an abrupt downturn, thanks to
a fragile trade truce struck with the US in mid-May and government policy support. But analysts warn that the second half of 2025 could prove tougher, as exports lose steam and consumer confidence remains low.
June's trade figures received a lift from the tariff reprieve, which saw
duties on Chinese goods cut to around 55 per cent – down sharply from a punishing 145 per cent. Exporters raced to ship out orders ahead of an August deadline, giving trade a temporary boost.
Mr Lynn Song, chief economist of greater China at ING, said in a note to clients on July 14: 'Overall, exports have held up better than most forecasters expected through the first half of the year, and contributed to first-half GDP comfortably beating very downbeat forecasts from the start of the year.'
Experts say increasing external uncertainties due to the US-China trade war could raise pressure on policymakers to roll out additional stimulus to support growth.
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Investors will be watching for signs of fresh stimulus at the upcoming July meeting of the Chinese Communist Party's Politburo, a group of 24 top officials who oversee the party and central government led by President Xi Jinping.
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