logo
El Nino shift fails to prevent hottest ever January

El Nino shift fails to prevent hottest ever January

The National06-02-2025
An emerging 'La Nina' weather pattern that cools global temperatures was not enough to prevent last month becoming the hottest January on record, scientists have said. January 2025 was 0.79°C above the 1991-2020 global average for the month and 1.75°C above pre-industrial levels, scientists from the EU's Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) said. It extends a persistent run of record highs over 2023 and 2024, as human-caused greenhouse gas emissions crank up the global thermostat. It makes it the 18th month in the last 19 for which average global air surface temperatures were more than 1.5°C above what they were before the industrial era. Climate scientists had expected this exceptional spell to subside after a warming El Nino event peaked in January 2024 and conditions gradually shifted to a cooling La Nina phase. But the heat has lingered at record or near-record levels since, sparking debate among scientists about which other factors could be driving global warming to the top end of expectations. "This is what makes it a bit of a surprise ... you're not seeing this cooling effect, or temporary brake at least, on the global temperature that we were expecting to see," said Julien Nicolas, a climate scientist from Copernicus. La Nina is expected to be weak and Copernicus said prevailing temperatures in parts of the equatorial Pacific Ocean suggested "a slowing or stalling of the move towards" the cooling phenomenon. Mr Nicolas said it could disappear completely by March. Overall, it means 2025 is not expected to follow the previous two years into the history books: scientists predict it will be the third-hottest year since records began. Scientists warn that every fraction of a degree of warming above the 1.5°C threshold increases the intensity and frequency of extreme weather such as heatwaves, heavy rain and drought. The analysis, using billions of measurements from satellites, ships, aircraft and weather stations around the world, also found the 12-month period from February 2024 to January 2025 was 1.61°C above the estimated temperature for 1850-1900, which is used to define the pre-industrial era. The record highs come despite the emergence of the La Nina pattern in the Pacific, which temporarily cools global temperatures. The data shows sea-surface temperatures outside the polar regions averaged 20.78°C, making it the second-hottest January after last year's record. Temperatures were below average in the central Pacific but close to or above average in the eastern Pacific – suggesting a slowing or stalling of the move to La Nina conditions, while surface temperatures were unusually high in many other oceans and seas. The average temperature over land in Europe was 1.8°C, which is 2.51°C above the 1991-2020 average for January, making it the second-warmest January for the continent after 2020. While temperatures were mostly above average over southern and eastern Europe, they were below average in the UK and Ireland, Iceland, northern France and northern Scandinavia. Samantha Burgess, strategic lead for climate at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, which runs C3S, said: 'January 2025 is another surprising month, continuing the record temperatures observed throughout the last two years, despite the development of La Nina conditions in the tropical Pacific and their temporary cooling effect on global temperatures. 'Copernicus will continue to closely monitor ocean temperatures and their influence on our evolving climate throughout 2025.'
Orange background

Try Our AI Features

Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:

Comments

No comments yet...

Related Articles

Climate change made European heatwave up to 4C hotter: study
Climate change made European heatwave up to 4C hotter: study

Al Etihad

time09-07-2025

  • Al Etihad

Climate change made European heatwave up to 4C hotter: study

9 July 2025 17:45 PARIS (AFP)Human-caused climate change made the recent European heatwave up to 4C hotter in many cities, scientists said on Wednesday, pushing temperatures into deadly territory for thousands of vulnerable likely led to far more heat-related deaths than would have occurred without the influence of global warming, concluded a rapid study by over a dozen researchers from five European analysis looked at 12 cities in Europe between June 23 and July 2 as an early summer heatwave drove temperatures well above 40C in some parts, triggering health EU's climate monitor Copernicus on Wednesday said it was the hottest June on record in western Europe, where some schools and tourist sites were shuttered as the mercury assess what role climate change played, scientists compared how intense a similar heatwave would have been in a world that had not warmed due to burning masses of fossil historical weather data, they concluded the heatwave 'would have been 2-4C cooler' without human-induced climate change in all but one of the 12 cities extra heat greatly elevated the health risk in these cities, which have a combined population of more than 30 million and include major capitals Paris, London, Rome and Madrid.'What that does is it brings certain groups of people into more dangerous territory,' said lead author Ben Clarke from Imperial College London, who led the study with the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine."For some people it's still warm, fine weather. But for now a huge sector of the population, it's more dangerous," he told the first time, scientists also sought to estimate the number of heat deaths using established attribution methods and epidemiological study, which has not been peer reviewed, estimated that about 2,300 died in the extreme conditions across the 12 cities during the 10 days in about 1,500, or roughly two thirds, of these deaths would not have occurred had climate change not pushed temperatures to such dangerous highs, researchers authors -- from research institutions in the UK, Netherlands, Denmark and Switzerland -- stressed this estimate was just a snapshot of the wider heatwave, as no official count was yet are particularly dangerous for the elderly, the sick, young children, outdoor workers, and anyone exposed to high temperatures for prolonged periods without effect on health is compounded in cities, where heat is absorbed by paved surfaces and buildings, making urban areas much hotter than their surroundings. Authorities say it could take weeks to tally a more definitive death toll from the recent heatwave, but similar episodes have claimed tens of thousands of lives in Europe during previous summers.

Climate change made European heatwave up to 4C hotter: Study
Climate change made European heatwave up to 4C hotter: Study

Khaleej Times

time09-07-2025

  • Khaleej Times

Climate change made European heatwave up to 4C hotter: Study

Human-caused climate change made recent European heatwaves up to 4C hotter in many cities, scientists said on Wednesday, pushing temperatures into deadly territory for thousands of vulnerable people. This likely led to far more heat-related deaths than would have occurred without the influence of global warming, concluded a rapid study of the episode by over a dozen researchers from five European institutions. Temperatures between late June and early July soared well above 40 degrees Celsius (104F) in many European countries as the first heatwave of the summer broke records and triggered health warnings. The EU's climate monitor Copernicus on Wednesday said it was the hottest June on record in western Europe, where some schools and tourist sites were shuttered as the mercury soared. To assess what role climate change played, scientists compared how intense a heatwave would have been in a world that had not warmed due to burning masses of fossil fuels. Using historical weather data, they concluded the heatwave "would have been 2-4C cooler" without human-induced climate change in all but one of the 12 cities studied. The added degrees greatly elevated the risk in these cities, which have a combined population of more than 30 million and include major capitals Paris, London and Madrid. "What that does is it brings certain groups of people into more dangerous territory," said researcher Ben Clarke from Imperial College London, which co-led the study with the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. "For some people it's still warm, fine weather. But for now a huge sector of the population, it's more dangerous," he told reporters. - Life and death - The study, for the first time, also sought to estimate the death toll from the heatwave in the 12 cities studied, and how many could be attributed to climate change. Based on peer-reviewed scientific methods and established research on heat and mortality, the study concluded the heatwave likely caused about 2,300 deaths between June 23 and July 2 across the 12 cities studied. But about 1,500, or roughly two thirds, of all these deaths would not have occurred had climate change not pushed temperatures to such dangerous highs, researchers said. The authors -- from research institutions in the UK, Netherlands, Denmark and Switzerland -- stressed this estimate was just a snapshot of the wider heatwave, as no official count was yet available. Heatwaves are particularly dangerous for the elderly, the sick, young children, outdoor workers, and anyone exposed to high temperatures for prolonged periods without relief. The effect on health is compounded in cities, where heat is absorbed by paved surfaces and buildings, making urban areas much hotter than their surroundings. Copernicus said large parts of southern Europe experienced so-called "tropical nights" during the heatwave, when overnight temperatures don't fall low enough to let the body recover. "An increase in heatwave temperature of just two or four degrees can mean the difference between life and death for thousands of people," said Garyfallos Konstantinoudis, a lecturer at Imperial College London. "This is why heatwaves are known as silent killers. Most heat-related deaths occur in homes and hospitals out of public view and are rarely reported," he told reporters. Authorities say it could take weeks to tally a more definitive death toll from the recent heatwave, but similar episodes have claimed tens of thousands of lives in Europe during previous summers.

European space ambitions need Gulf partners
European space ambitions need Gulf partners

Arabian Business

time20-06-2025

  • Arabian Business

European space ambitions need Gulf partners

I f Europe wants to stand on its own two feet, it must look up – literally. Space, once associated only with exploration – or, more cynically – national vanity projects, has become crucial to the economic health, security, and soft power of any government, national or regional. That's one reason why Josef Aschbacher, head of the European Space Agency, has called for more investment in the sector. Europe, he argues, cannot afford to lag behind. The ambition to be 'strategically autonomous' and shape its own future depends on catching up in an area where other powers, the U.S. and China most notably, are pulling ahead. Space technology, it's crucial to note, is not just about satellites and rockets even though culturally, that's often what comes to mind when people think about it. This perception has been strengthened by Elon Musk's SpaceX, which communicates aggressively around its many launches. Space in fact touches everything from military equipment and weapons to communications infrastructure to environmental monitoring and supply chain efficiency. A recent study published by the World Economic Forum and McKinsey underscored how 'space-based technologies are revolutionising the supply chain, transportation, and mobility sectors, positioning them as the fastest-growing segment of the global space economy.' In these areas, Europe has some of the world's best engineers. But it consistently fails to support the companies where they work with meaningful investment. Compare this situation with that of the Middle East. The Gulf region has become a surprising contender in the new space race. The UAE and Saudi Arabia, once absent from this arena, are now outspending many of their Western counterparts and making rapid progress. In just over a decade, they have poured $25 billion into the field, and that is expected to grow to $75 billion by 2032. First, national security remains essential. Secondly, they need to plan for the post-oil era. The Gulf economies rely heavily on oil, and they will be in deep trouble if they do not diversify their economies. Thirdly, they need to prepare the labour market for the twin challenges of automation and climate change. They are also closely aligned with strategic initiatives: AI, autonomous systems. Space covers all of these. It promises robust security, long-time prosperity, and future-proof jobs, as well as national prestige and the tools to adapt to an uncertain world. But the Middle East and Europe need not see themselves as rivals. The Gulf states are actively looking for partners; they want to develop their space infrastructure further. They are becoming global hubs of innovation. And Europe, with its highly skilled, highly educated workforce and depth in advanced technology, should be an obvious ally in this undertaking. A paradigm shift is underway: those countries that fail to see how much more the Middle East is than a source of capital will fall far behind. Europe would benefit from the support. It has many promising space companies developing world-beating dual-use technologies. With more funding and backing, they could scale rapidly: ICEYE, one of Europe's most exciting space companies, has benefitted hugely from its presence in the Gulf. Growing fast would stop lesser companies in other nations from appearing, gaining more funding, and out-scaling them. In the United States, small, innovative companies have long been seen as the key to remaining at the forefront of innovation, and those companies receive generous funding for that reason. In Europe, procurement processes badly need rethinking, and there is still some hesitation around investing in defence, which often overlaps with space. There was a time when the Middle East was viewed (wrongly, even then) as a source of oil money and little else. That has changed: it is now widely viewed as a genuine industrial power, as well as a large and growing market and a vital bridge and trading point between East and West. If Europe were to collaborate with the United Arab Emirates, it could get much more than funding. The Gulf is vast, with open landscapes and a climate perfectly suited for the testing of advanced, satellite-based tech. Europe is densely packed and its regulations are stringent. The Gulf, for its part, would gain European know-how, which would accelerate its development in space. Jobs, knowledge transfer and commercial opportunities would also follow. So a strong Europe–Middle East alliance in space would serve both sides: creating economic opportunities, reducing dependency on unpredictable allies, and developing infrastructure that will define the next century. It's a win-win. The Middle East is ready and waiting. It has shown that it's looking ahead to the future, and it is eager to join hands with countries and regions for mutual advantage: the slew of multibillion-dollar U.S. tech deals struck by Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar shows that. Europe, which for a long time has relied on others, and has been able to invest in its social infrastructure due to the promise of U.S. military support, badly needs to work with other countries to ensure its security and the quality of life of its citizens. It should act now. The clock is ticking.

DOWNLOAD THE APP

Get Started Now: Download the App

Ready to dive into a world of global content with local flavor? Download Daily8 app today from your preferred app store and start exploring.
app-storeplay-store