Republicans race toward crucial vote on Trump megabill despite uncertainties
Senate Republicans are racing into a crucial weekend in their effort to pass President Trump's mammoth tax and spending bill despite not knowing whether they have the votes to advance it or what some aspects of the final package will look like.
GOP leaders are eyeing an initial procedural vote Saturday afternoon to kick off floor consideration of Trump's 'big, beautiful bill.' If it clears a simple majority threshold, the chamber would debate the bill before moving to a 'vote-a-rama,' during which unlimited amendments can be brought to the floor, before a final vote.
Senate Republican leaders took a big step forward when they unveiled most of the final version of bill text shortly before midnight on Friday, reflecting changes required by the Senate parliamentarian and negotiations among various groups.
But whether they'll be able to clear that simple majority is a major question, leaving leadership hustling to court the holdouts.
'We will find out tomorrow,' Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) said with a laugh on Friday when asked if he has the votes.
Republicans can lose no more than three members, and Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) has long said he is opposed to the bill as long as the $5 trillion debt ceiling hike is included.
Beyond that, Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) loudly proclaimed on Friday that he is a 'no' on proceeding to the bill over the Senate's planned rollback of an existing federal cap on provider taxes, a deeper cut to Medicaid than the freeze in the House-passed measure that Tillis prefers.
Without changes, he insisted he would vote against it, saying it would be 'devastating' to the Tar Heel State as it could lose more than $30 billion as a result.
Tillis is up for reelection next year and has warned about the political consequences of keeping that portion of the bill as is.
'I'm looking at this through a policy and political lens. I think this would be extraordinarily difficult politically for my Republican leadership in the legislature to manage,' he said leaving the Capitol on Friday. 'That's what's driving my 'no' vote.'
Leadership is still working him hard, though. Tillis was engaged in multiple conversations with GOP leaders on the floor during a vote on Friday.
Hours later, GOP leaders inserted a delay in implementing the provider tax from fiscal 2027 until fiscal 2028 with an eye toward winning over the North Carolina Republican and others concerned about Medicaid cuts.
Not all Republicans are convinced Tillis will follow through, with many remembering his last minute flip to support Pete Hegseth's nomination to lead the Pentagon earlier this year.
'He sure sounds like he says he would [vote 'no'],' one Senate GOP member said. 'There's a little bit of a pattern here.'
But Tillis's vote isn't Thune's only problem.
There's a trio of conservative members — Sens. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.), Rick Scott (R-Fla.) and Mike Lee (R-Utah) — who have bemoaned the lack of spending cuts in the massive package. The three have indicated they may vote as a bloc.
Johnson told reporters on Friday night that he was still a holdout pending text, which arrived hours later.
A pair of key moderates, Sens. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) and Susan Collins (R-Maine), had also indicated they are in a similar spot absent text.
Murkowski on Friday also indicated she wasn't happy with the provisions regarding the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP).
Asked briefly about the party's SNAP proposals on Friday, Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) told The Hill, 'We're still in trouble on SNAP.'
'The implementation is still next to impossible for us,' she said.
Leadership has made a concerted effort to court Murkowski in the final hours, though, as they plan to add additional grants tied to SNAP to the final language, with the aim of helping Alaska specifically.
'We've made some adjustments based on input we've gotten from them in the last few days,' Thune told Politico about SNAP language alterations, referring to Murkowski and Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska).
Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) also remains a wild card over concerns about Medicaid provisions and their impact on rural hospitals, concerns Murkowski and Collins have also raised.
GOP Leaders included a fund in the final version to bolster them of at least $25 billion in an effort to win over some of the moderates, though Hawley, Collins and others were hoping that number would be higher.
'More money for the rural [hospital] fund is good. But I don't know yet,' Hawley said, rattling off the questions he is still unsure of. 'How much money [for the fund]? What's the delay [for the provider tax]? What are the final provisions?'
Already the timing for the vote is beginning to slip.
Thune on Friday afternoon told lawmakers to expect a noon vote, though he warned the timeline was 'aspirational.'
Republicans are now expected to meet over lunch on Saturday before the chamber reconvenes at 2 p.m. EDT, with the hope of wrapping up the 'Byrd Bath' with the parliamentarian beforehand.
Meetings with the parliamentarian were ongoing on Friday night to nail down clearance on key items, including on Medicaid.
But lawmakers did see progress on some key items Friday, including on the state and local tax (SALT) deduction cap that has proven to be an arduous battle between the Senate GOP and House members from high-tax states.
According to multiple Senate GOP members, the $40,000 deduction cap House members agreed to with Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) is set to stick, though it will only last for five years. The cap would then drop to $10,000 for the following five years.
'I think we're very, very close,' Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told reporters after the Senate GOP's luncheon.
Bessent and Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.), the upper chamber's informal liaison to the House, has huddled and talked with key SALT members multiple times this week in search of a deal.
Even after the Senate begins consideration of the bill, timing could be fluid. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) has threatened to drag out proceedings by having the entire bill, which runs more than 1,000 pages, be read aloud on the floor by the Senate clerk.
Johnson pulled a similar move in 2021 by having the clerk read the entire American Rescue Plan, an endeavor that lasted six hours. Mullin predicted that could take more than twice as much time — potentially delaying what will be a high-stakes weekend for Trump and leadership.
Democrats are also expected to propose dozens of amendments designed to force Republicans into tough votes.
'It's clear we're not [going to have] unanimity on some of this. That's why God made votes. That's why God made amendments,' said Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.). 'I think everybody recognizes that it's time for us to vote.'
Alexander Bolton contributed.
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