Auto manufacturing emissions in India can drop 87% by 2050 through clean energy and low-carbon steel: Report
Council on Energy
, Environment and Water (CEEW). The study tracks the emissions profile of the world's third-largest auto industry across the full value chain and highlights the role of cleaner inputs in aligning the sector with India's net-zero targets.
Using a custom version of the Global Change Analysis Model, the CEEW study projects that annual vehicle production in India could grow from 25 million in 2020 to 96 million by 2050 under a business-as-usual (BAU) trajectory. In this scenario, annual emissions from manufacturing are expected to double, reaching 64 million tonnes of CO₂, even as emissions intensity per vehicle declines.
The study notes that Scope 3 emissions, which include upstream supply chain emissions from materials such as steel and rubber, currently account for more than 83 per cent of the sector's overall emissions. Scope 1 and 2 emissions, which come from direct factory operations and electricity use respectively, contribute the remaining share.
Dr Arunabha Ghosh, CEO, CEEW, said, 'India's auto industry stands at a turning point. To lead in a low-carbon global economy, we must decarbonise not just the vehicles we drive but the industrial processes that build them. Automakers must clean up how their vehicles are made, what powers their factories, and how their suppliers produce critical inputs like steel and rubber.'
If original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and their suppliers were to align with net-zero by 2050, emissions from the sector could be reduced to just 9 million tonnes of CO₂ annually, down from the projected 64 MtCO₂ under BAU—a reduction of 87 per cent. This would require a shift to 100 per cent green electricity and increasing the share of hydrogen-based energy in steel production to 56 per cent. Coal's share in steelmaking would have to fall below 10 per cent, while scrap-based steel production would need to rise to 48 per cent.
Dr Vaibhav Chaturvedi, Senior Fellow, CEEW, said, 'To align India's automobile sector—central to GDP, jobs, and industrial growth—with a net-zero future, we must go beyond electrifying vehicles. We must decarbonise manufacturing itself. Leading OEMs are already making corporate decisions to stay ahead by decarbonising their operations and supply chains.'
The study also examines a high-hybrid scenario, where hybrid vehicles dominate initially before EVs take off. While this reduces component suppliers' energy demand by 7 per cent, overall emissions remain slightly higher than in a direct shift to EVs due to continued use of combustion engines.
The study recommends a dual approach to achieve net-zero alignment by 2050: accelerate EV adoption and decarbonise the entire manufacturing chain. Since 65–80 per cent of a vehicle's lifetime emissions stem from its use phase, electrification remains the most effective lever to cut total emissions, provided it is coupled with clean manufacturing practices.
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Time of India
4 days ago
- Time of India
Not just electric: Auto sector needs cleaner steel & power to really put the brakes on emissions, says study
India's automobile sector—the third-largest in the world—could slash its manufacturing-related emissions by a staggering 87% by 2050, not just by building more electric vehicles (EVs), but by cleaning up how all vehicles—ICEs, hybrids, and EVs—are made. That's the central finding of a new report released Wednesday by the Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW), which stresses that green electricity, low-carbon steel, and cleaner supply chains—not just EVs—are essential to decarbonising the industry. In recent years, top automakers such as Tata Motors , Mahindra & Mahindra, TVS Motors , Ford, BMW, Mercedes-Benz, and Toyota have set ambitious emission reduction targets and joined the Science-Based Targets initiative (SBTi). Many have expanded electric and hybrid offerings—but the study urges the sector to go further by addressing Scope 1, 2, and 3 emissions, including those from suppliers. 'To lead in a low-carbon global economy, we must decarbonise not just the vehicles we drive, but the industrial processes that build them,' said Dr Arunabha Ghosh, CEO of CEEW. 'Automakers must clean up what powers their factories and how suppliers produce critical materials like steel and rubber.' The Delhi-based think tank's study shows that while production could quadruple to 96 million vehicles by 2050, emissions from manufacturing can be capped—or even dramatically cut—if the sector shifts to 100% green electricity, adopts hydrogen-based and scrap-intensive steelmaking, and makes low-carbon procurement the norm. Today, Scope 3 emissions—mostly from materials like coal-heavy steel and rubber—account for 83% of the industry's carbon footprint in India. Simply electrifying vehicles without addressing these upstream emissions will leave most of the climate problem intact. Hybrids are a temporary bridge CEEW also modelled a 'high-hybrid' scenario, where hybrids dominate before EVs become widespread. While this reduces some energy demand, emissions remain higher than a direct EV transition due to continued combustion engine use. 'Hybrid vehicles may offer short-term efficiency gains, but they're not a substitute for a zero-carbon mobility future,' the report notes. Green manufacturing: Real game changer The report urges OEMs to treat green manufacturing as a strategic lever—not just for climate goals, but for long-term competitiveness. With global supply chains tightening sustainability standards, Indian manufacturers who decarbonise early will have a distinct edge. 'Indian automakers must secure green steel, power factories with renewables, and demand cleaner inputs from suppliers,' said Dr Vaibhav Chaturvedi, Senior Fellow at CEEW. 'Without this, EVs alone won't be enough to meet net-zero goals.' The study calls for a two-pronged strategy: accelerate EV adoption and decarbonise the manufacturing value chain. If done right, it says, the Indian auto sector could become a 'force multiplier' in the country's broader transition to net-zero.
Time of India
4 days ago
- Time of India
Auto manufacturing emissions in India can drop 87% by 2050 through clean energy and low-carbon steel: Report
New Delhi: India's automobile industry can reduce its manufacturing-related carbon emissions by as much as 87 per cent by 2050 through a shift to green electricity and low-carbon steel, according to a study released by the Council on Energy , Environment and Water (CEEW). The study tracks the emissions profile of the world's third-largest auto industry across the full value chain and highlights the role of cleaner inputs in aligning the sector with India's net-zero targets. Using a custom version of the Global Change Analysis Model, the CEEW study projects that annual vehicle production in India could grow from 25 million in 2020 to 96 million by 2050 under a business-as-usual (BAU) trajectory. In this scenario, annual emissions from manufacturing are expected to double, reaching 64 million tonnes of CO₂, even as emissions intensity per vehicle declines. The study notes that Scope 3 emissions, which include upstream supply chain emissions from materials such as steel and rubber, currently account for more than 83 per cent of the sector's overall emissions. Scope 1 and 2 emissions, which come from direct factory operations and electricity use respectively, contribute the remaining share. Dr Arunabha Ghosh, CEO, CEEW, said, 'India's auto industry stands at a turning point. To lead in a low-carbon global economy, we must decarbonise not just the vehicles we drive but the industrial processes that build them. Automakers must clean up how their vehicles are made, what powers their factories, and how their suppliers produce critical inputs like steel and rubber.' If original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and their suppliers were to align with net-zero by 2050, emissions from the sector could be reduced to just 9 million tonnes of CO₂ annually, down from the projected 64 MtCO₂ under BAU—a reduction of 87 per cent. This would require a shift to 100 per cent green electricity and increasing the share of hydrogen-based energy in steel production to 56 per cent. Coal's share in steelmaking would have to fall below 10 per cent, while scrap-based steel production would need to rise to 48 per cent. Dr Vaibhav Chaturvedi, Senior Fellow, CEEW, said, 'To align India's automobile sector—central to GDP, jobs, and industrial growth—with a net-zero future, we must go beyond electrifying vehicles. We must decarbonise manufacturing itself. Leading OEMs are already making corporate decisions to stay ahead by decarbonising their operations and supply chains.' The study also examines a high-hybrid scenario, where hybrid vehicles dominate initially before EVs take off. While this reduces component suppliers' energy demand by 7 per cent, overall emissions remain slightly higher than in a direct shift to EVs due to continued use of combustion engines. The study recommends a dual approach to achieve net-zero alignment by 2050: accelerate EV adoption and decarbonise the entire manufacturing chain. Since 65–80 per cent of a vehicle's lifetime emissions stem from its use phase, electrification remains the most effective lever to cut total emissions, provided it is coupled with clean manufacturing practices.
Time of India
4 days ago
- Time of India
Auto manufacturing emissions in India can drop 87% by 2050 through clean energy and low-carbon steel: Report
India's automobile industry can reduce its manufacturing-related carbon emissions by as much as 87 per cent by 2050 through a shift to green electricity and low-carbon steel, according to a study released by the Council on Energy , Environment and Water (CEEW). The study tracks the emissions profile of the world's third-largest auto industry across the full value chain and highlights the role of cleaner inputs in aligning the sector with India's net-zero targets. Using a custom version of the Global Change Analysis Model, the CEEW study projects that annual vehicle production in India could grow from 25 million in 2020 to 96 million by 2050 under a business-as-usual (BAU) trajectory. In this scenario, annual emissions from manufacturing are expected to double, reaching 64 million tonnes of CO₂, even as emissions intensity per vehicle declines. The study notes that Scope 3 emissions, which include upstream supply chain emissions from materials such as steel and rubber, currently account for more than 83 per cent of the sector's overall emissions. Scope 1 and 2 emissions, which come from direct factory operations and electricity use respectively, contribute the remaining share. Dr Arunabha Ghosh , CEO, CEEW, said, 'India's auto industry stands at a turning point. To lead in a low-carbon global economy, we must decarbonise not just the vehicles we drive but the industrial processes that build them. Automakers must clean up how their vehicles are made, what powers their factories, and how their suppliers produce critical inputs like steel and rubber.' If original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and their suppliers were to align with net-zero by 2050, emissions from the sector could be reduced to just 9 million tonnes of CO₂ annually, down from the projected 64 MtCO₂ under BAU—a reduction of 87 per cent. This would require a shift to 100 per cent green electricity and increasing the share of hydrogen-based energy in steel production to 56 per cent. Coal's share in steelmaking would have to fall below 10 per cent, while scrap-based steel production would need to rise to 48 per cent. Dr Vaibhav Chaturvedi , Senior Fellow, CEEW, said, 'To align India's automobile sector—central to GDP, jobs, and industrial growth—with a net-zero future, we must go beyond electrifying vehicles. We must decarbonise manufacturing itself. Leading OEMs are already making corporate decisions to stay ahead by decarbonising their operations and supply chains.' The study also examines a high-hybrid scenario, where hybrid vehicles dominate initially before EVs take off. While this reduces component suppliers' energy demand by 7 per cent, overall emissions remain slightly higher than in a direct shift to EVs due to continued use of combustion engines. The study recommends a dual approach to achieve net-zero alignment by 2050: accelerate EV adoption and decarbonise the entire manufacturing chain. Since 65–80 per cent of a vehicle's lifetime emissions stem from its use phase, electrification remains the most effective lever to cut total emissions, provided it is coupled with clean manufacturing practices.
