Will tropical storm form in Gulf next week? See latest forecast from AccuWeather, NOAA
But AccuWeather forecasters are keeping an eye on an area close to Florida and the United States which shows some potential for tropical development next week. It's the same area where Chantal was born, said AccuWeather lede hurricane expert Alex DaSilva.
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Saharan dust and wind shear are helping to prevent any storm development.
Elsewhere, the National Hurricane Center is tracking four tropical waves.
The next named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season will be Dexter.
Today's weather forecast across Florida calls for showers and thunderstorms across several portions of the state, temperatures in the 90s and heat indices hitting as high as 107.
Here's the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center as of 8 a.m., July 10:
The National Hurricane Center is keeping an eye on four tropical waves in the Atlantic basin:
Tropical wave 1: A tropical wave is analyzed near 21W from 04N-19N, moving west at around 11 mph. Scattered moderate convection is active from 07N-13N between the coast of Africa and 25W.
Tropical wave 2: A tropical wave is analyzed near 38W, from 05N-18N, moving west at around 17 to 23 mph. Scattered showers are noted along the wave axis.
Tropical wave 3: A tropical wave is analyzed near 66W from 20N to northern Venezuela, moving west at around 1a mph. No significant convection is noted with this wave.
Tropical wave 4: A tropical wave is analyzed near 82W from 07-22N, and is moving west at around 11 mph. Scattered moderate convection is seen in the far southwestern Caribbean, and also from 14-17N between 80-85W.
At least in the short term, the tropics should remain quiet, according to both the National Hurricane Center and AccuWeather.
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"There's simply too much wind and too much African dust coming across the Atlantic right now," DaSilva said via email.
"There's a lot of African dust, which is common this time of the year. June and July typically have the most African dust coming across the Atlantic Basin, and this year is no different."
There is a low risk of a tropical depression or tropical storm forming from July 15-18, according to AccuWeather.
"It's in the northeastern Gulf and off the southeast coast, a very similar area to where we outlooked Chantal," DaSilva said.
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"I think it's a similar setup, but not the exact same thing. We are going to have a cold front coming down in that area and you can get a little bit of spin on the end of it. It looks like there could be a little more wind shear with this setup, potentially, and that could prevent development.
"Either way, it looks like over the entirety of the Atlantic Basin, if anything is going to develop here over the next couple of weeks, it's likely to be really close to home. It's likely to be that what we call homegrown tropical development in the northeastern Gulf or off the Southeast coast," DaSilva said.
"Much like Chantal, if something develops, it's unlikely that it would become a hurricane. I don't think it would have enough time to develop, and also it's got to deal with some of that wind shear. If anything develops, it would likely be a tropical depression or tropical storm, and that's if anything develops at all."
Historically, July tropical systems develop close to the United States, in the Gulf, Caribbean and in the southwestern Atlantic. Later in the season, they form out of tropical waves moving off the coast of Africa.
If development of the system occurs in the Atlantic east of Florida, "it may once again drift northward toward the U.S. coast," AccuWeather said.
"Should development occur on the Gulf side of Florida, which is looking more plausible at this time, steering breezes could guide the area of interest westward along the northern Gulf coast.
"In either case, showers and thunderstorms can increase in coastal areas and adjacent waters offshore even if a storm center fails to form. Should a center form, more substantial rain and wind, with building surf, would unfold," AccuWeather said.
An average Atlantic hurricane season has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.
Here's when this year's named storms have developed, compared to historical averages:
Tropical Storm Andrea: formed Juned 24. Average start date: June 20
Tropical Storm Barry: formed June 29. Average start date: July 17
Tropical Storm Chantal: formed July 5. Average start date: Aug. 3.
Next up, Dexter: Average state date: Aug. 15, with the average first hurricane forming Aug. 11.
Here are the names for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, along with how to pronounce them:
Andrea (June 24)
Barry (June 29)
Chantal (July 5)
Dexter: DEHK-ster
Erin: AIR-rin
Fernand: fair-NAHN
Gabrielle: ga-bree-ELL
Humberto: oom-BAIR-toh
Imelda: ee-MEHL-dah
Jerry: JEHR-ee
Karen: KAIR-ren
Lorenzo: loh-REN-zoh
Melissa: meh-LIH-suh
Nestor: NES-tor
Olga: OAL-guh
Pablo: PAHB-lo
Rebekah: reh-BEH-kuh
Sebastien: se-BAS-tee-en
Tanya: TAHN-yuh
Van: van
Wendy: WEN-dee
Florida weather forecast for July 10, 2025
Pensacola, western Panhandle: Scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected to develop this afternoon across the local area, with highs topping out in the low to mid 90s.
Tallahassee, central Panhandle: Afternoon and evening thunderstorms today will pack a bit more punch than a typical summer day, especially across South Georgia. High near 94. Heat index values as high as 103.
Jacksonville, North/Northeast Florida: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 3 p.m. Partly sunny, with a high near 94. Heat index values as high as 101
Daytona Beach to Stuart, East/Central Florida: Scattered showers and storms are forecast today, ranging 30-40 percent along the coast and 40-60 percent west of I-95. While afternoon highs will be near to slightly above normal, humid conditions will produce peak heat index values between 100-106.
West Palm Beach to Naples, South/Southwest Florida: Hot temperatures and high relative humidity will push heat index values to 102-105 for Southeast Florida and 105-107 for Southwest Florida before scattered showers and thunderstorms increase later this afternoon and help cool conditions down.
Fort Myers to Sarasota, West/Southwest Florida: Scattered to numerous mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms today. Best chance for rain will be over the interior and Southwest Florida late afternoon into early evening. Highs from the upper 80s coast to the mid 90s inland with heat indices between 100 and 105.
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
Ninety-seven percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time period, NOAA said.
The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America, as the Gulf of Mexico is now known in the U.S. per an order from President Trump. NOAA and the National Hurricane Center are now using Gulf of America on its maps and in its advisories.
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:
Tropical cyclone is the generic term used by the National Weather Service, NOAA and the National Hurricane Center for any tropical system, even if it's in the tropical Atlantic basin.
To be more precise, a tropical cyclone is a "rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or subtropical waters and has closed, low-level circulation," NOAA said.
Once maximum sustained winds reach 74 mph, what it is called is determined by where it originated:
: for storms in the North Atlantic, central North Pacific, and eastern North Pacific.
: for storms in the Northwest Pacific.
: for storms in the South Pacific and Indian Ocean.
We will update our tropical weather coverage daily.
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This story has been updated with new information.
This article originally appeared on Sarasota Herald-Tribune: Hurricane Center update: Forecasters tracking 5 tropical waves
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