As Chirag Paswan seeks to become NDA fulcrum in Bihar, why BJP is watching with caution
While the BJP leadership maintains that Paswan is free to contest from any of the seats his party is allocated as part of a seat-sharing agreement, a section in the ruling party said he was merely trying to take advantage of a sense of confusion in the state unit.
Paswan, the Union Minister for Food Processing Industries in the Narendra Modi Cabinet, recently said he was ready to get back to Bihar politics as contributing to the development of the state had always been his motivation. With his party indicating he could contest from a general seat instead of a reserved constituency, all eyes will now be on Paswan's public rally in Ara in Bhojpur district on Sunday.
Paswan's public statements come at a time when Chief Minister Nitish Kumar's rivals believe that his time at the top of Bihar politics is drawing to a close. The LJP (RV) leader is said to harbour the ambition of being the face that can bring together key electoral forces in the state. Though his party won five seats in the last Lok Sabha elections with 6.47% vote share, it is still not as big a party as Nitish Kumar's JD(U) that had an 18.52% vote share.
A BJP leader admitted that Paswan had the potential to be a leader with acceptability beyond his party's traditional base. A senior BJP leader and former MP from Bihar said, 'He does not want to limit himself to being a leader of only the Paswans with just 4% votes. While the community is with him, he has to expand his base and is playing his cards.'
However, a section of state BJP leaders feel the central leadership failed to groom faces in a politically crucial and unpredictable state such as Bihar, and this has allowed the LJP(RV) leader to cash in. 'If the BJP leadership in the state had been defined, it would not have been like this. Leaders such as Chirag Pawan are taking advantage of this. Chirag is playing his cards carefully,' said a senior BJP leader in Bihar.
'His hints that he could shift to the state and contest from a general seat show that he wants to be the next Nitish (Kumar) in Bihar politics. He (Nitish) has ruled Bihar for almost two decades without having a majority, without having a party that has more than 20% vote share. He gets projected from everywhere. The BJP these days does not make leaders, only workers,' the leader added.
BJP leader Mrityunjay Sharma, the author of Broken Promises: Caste, Crime and Politics in Bihar, said Paswan's posturing was linked to his efforts to expand his party's base. 'It seems that Chirag wants to expand the reach of his party beyond a caste party of Paswans, as it is seen. He wants to include various other voting blocs, such as the youth and women. That's the reason why he says he wants to contest from an unreserved seat,' he said.
However, Sharma said the LJP(RV) chief would find it tough. 'The LJP(RV) is a small party compared to Nitish Kumar's party. Historically, the JD(U) has always been a significant party with around 20% vote share even in a coalition. Paswan would have to expand his base significantly to be such a player, which is really tough in the coming five to 10 years,' he said. The LJP's best performance in the 243-member Assembly was in 2005, when it won 29 seats.
The BJP also recognises that it has to tread with caution in a state as important and electorally fragmented as Bihar, balancing the interests of both its allies. In the state, two of the three key players — BJP, JD(U), and RJD — together make for a winning formula.
Top BJP leaders said it had few options but to keep all the existing allies together and continue with Nitish Kumar as the face. 'The reports about his health condition are not good, but his face brings the votes and his legacy is important. As of now, it is like, 'it will run till it can'. The party has no other option but to go with him,' said a BJP leader in New Delhi.
For the BJP to continue as a dominant force in national politics, Bihar is a crucial factor. The Centre's announcement of caste enumeration during the next Census — it has been a key political plank of the Opposition, especially the Congress and its leader Rahul Gandhi in the last few elections — was also seen as a move to consolidate the BJP's position ahead of the Bihar elections. Both the JD(U) and the LJP (RV) had sought caste enumeration, saying it is necessary to ensure justice to the backward classes. If it succeeds in pulling through in Bihar — it is the only state in the Hindi heartland where the BJP has been in power as part of only coalition governments — the ruling party won't have to look back as it continues its quest to remain the leading national political force.
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