Your city could get twice as hot—India braces for spike in heatwaves and extreme rains
New Delhi: If you've been feeling that summers are getting hotter and rains more unpredictable, you're not alone—and it's going to get worse. A new
climate risk study
by
IPE Global
and Esri India warns that eight out of every ten districts in India are set to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves and rainfall by 2030.
The report found that cities like Mumbai, Delhi, Patna, Chennai, Surat, Thane, Hyderabad, and Bhubaneswar could witness a two-fold increase in heatwave days, with climate change turning once-predictable seasons into extremes. The study noted a 15-fold rise in extreme heatwave days across the March–September period in the last three decades and a 19-fold surge in the past ten years alone.
These changes are not limited to temperatures. The report shows that erratic and heavy rains are becoming more common in regions already facing heat stress. The combination is expected to disrupt lives, damage infrastructure, and affect local economies.
Coastal districts, particularly on both eastern and western coasts, are projected to experience extended heat stress during the monsoon season. Around 69% of these districts could face summer-like conditions during June to September by 2030, rising to 79% by 2040.
Gujarat, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, Odisha, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Meghalaya, and Manipur are among the states likely to experience a double impact of heat and rainfall extremes. Over 80% of districts in these states are projected to be affected by 2030.
Abinash Mohanty, Head of the Climate Change and Sustainability Practice at IPE Global and the study's lead author, said, 'The study and its stark findings suggest how climate change has exposed India to extreme heat and rainfall and the situation is going to be grimmer and harsher by 2030 with majority of the urban centres going to be impacted the most. Further, the meteorological phenomena like El Niño & La Niña are going to gain stronger momentum, resulting in abrupt surge in climate extremes like flood, cyclones, storm surges and extreme heat.'
According to the analysis, 72% of tier-I and tier-II cities are expected to witness more instances of heat stress,
extreme rainfall
, storm surges, lightning, and hailstorms. Areas identified as hotspots are projected to undergo a 63% shift in land-use and land-cover, largely driven by surface changes, deforestation, and loss of wetlands.
The report finds that extreme heatwave hotspots are increasingly seeing more erratic and incessant rainfall. It highlights that monsoon seasons are now resembling extended summers, except on non-rainy days.
Ashwajit Singh, Managing Director of IPE Global, said, 'Climate and development pathways are intricately linked. Nearly all countries of the Global South face the dual challenge of improving living conditions for large segments of their population while simultaneously adapting to the consequences of climate change.'
The study recommends establishing a Climate Risk Observatory (CRO) that uses real-time data, satellite observation, and climate models to assess and predict heat and rainfall risks at the district level. The CRO could guide policymakers, disaster management teams, and infrastructure planners with targeted data.
Agendra Kumar, Managing Director, Esri India, said, 'The growing intensity and frequency of extreme heat and rainfall events across India are no longer rare occurrences—they are signals of a shifting climate reality impacting lives, livelihoods, and infrastructure. Geographic Information System (GIS) technology… offers a powerful lens to understand climate impacts across economic, social, and environmental dimensions.'
The report also calls for introducing district-level 'heat-risk champions' to coordinate efforts through local disaster management committees and to explore climate risk financing mechanisms to manage future weather disruptions.
The study uses a dynamic climate modelling approach with hyper-local assessments to forecast risks for 2030 and 2040. It concludes that relying solely on global models may not be sufficient for planning India's climate adaptation strategies.
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