Risk boost from US-EU trade deal of little help to Indian rupee as outflows persist

Business Recorder

6 hours ago

MUMBAI: The Indian rupee is expected to open little changed on Monday, with any support from improved risk sentiment after a trade deal between the European Union (EU) and the U.S. likely to be capped by persistent foreign portfolio outflows.
The 1-month non-deliverable forward indicated the rupee will open in the 86.48-86.51 range versus the U.S. dollar, compared with Friday's close of 86.5150.
Global stocks rose and the euro firmed after the weekend deal between the EU and the U.S., which set the import tariff on most EU goods at 15% - half the rate initially threatened.
Asian currencies traded mixed, while the dollar index was at 97.6.
The U.S.-EU trade pact is expected to reduce trade-related uncertainty in a week dominated by central bank policy decisions and the U.S.'s August 1 deadline for trading partners to strike deals.
Washington has already signed similar framework accords with Britain, Japan, Indonesia and Vietnam.
Meanwhile, India's trade minister told Reuters last week that the country is also hopeful of reaching a deal with the U.S. that includes 'special and preferred treatment'.
Alongside these, monetary policy meetings in the U.S., Japan and other economies will be in focus this week.
While the Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep rates unchanged, ANZ said it will watch for 'tweaks to the language' in the Fed's statement and Chair Jerome Powell's comments for clues on possible rate cuts in September.
Over the week, traders expect the rupee to hover between 86.20 and 86.80-86.90, with a slight depreciation bias given the persistent outflows from local stocks.
Foreign investors have net sold Indian equities worth about $750 million so far in July, reversing three months of inflows.