How to convert a temporary ceasefire into a permanent one

Arab News

8 hours ago

https://arab.news/yuyyq
The US administration appears to have decided to push for a temporary ceasefire in Gaza, possibly to be announced during the visit by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to the White House on Monday. The question that is on everyone's mind is: Are we facing the end of this terrible revenge war or will this be another two-month ceasefire (or less) before the genocide resumes? What are the future scenarios?
After 21 months of retaliatory warfare under an illegal pretext, a 60-day ceasefire is expected to begin soon. A ceasefire may alleviate the unprecedented suffering of the Palestinian people, especially those in Gaza, but unfortunately it will not end the war unless the pressure continues to grow on Israel to immediately end its criminal war against the Palestinian people.
Netanyahu's agreement to a ceasefire may come because of a series of pressures on him. Firstly, from the Israeli military, which pays a daily price because of consistent resistance acts against the occupiers. This has resulted in a clear rejection by the army's top brass of the continuity of a war without a purpose. In addition, Israeli citizens continue to demonstrate daily, demanding an end to the war because they realize that is the only way to secure the release of the hostages and a return to normality.
In addition, there is mounting international pressure. World leaders appear to have belatedly begun to exert tangible pressure on Israel, as we have seen with the EU seriously considering sanctions as a result of Tel Aviv's violation of the terms of the cooperation agreement between the two parties. Article 2 of the agreement states that it can be revisited if there is a gross violation of human rights.
But perhaps the most important source of pressure on Netanyahu is the corruption case against him that is likely to conclude soon.
Most legal experts expect that the Israeli prime minister will be convicted, which would carry with it a prison term. This is important because, as PM, he has the leverage of accepting a plea bargain that could ensure he stays out of jail in return for agreeing to stay out of politics completely. This option could be removed if the Orthodox parties in his governing coalition push for early elections, as polls show he will likely not be able to create another winning coalition. Elections must be held in 2026 in any case, so he does not have a lot of time to consider making a deal before the court makes its final ruling.
It is unclear how Hamas would behave if a Palestinian, Arab or international party governed the Gaza Strip.
Daoud Kuttab
While the end of the war could be part of a decision by Netanyahu to cut his losses and stay out of jail, the immediate pressure might be on Hamas and other resistance factions to decide how they will behave in the days after the end of the war. Their choices could influence whether an agreement to end the war comes sooner or later.
Pressure to end the war, therefore, will not be limited to the Israeli side. There are clear Israeli, American and international demands on Hamas and Islamic Jihad. Not only will Hamas have to decide to give up control of the Strip, but it must also make a much harder decision. Will it be willing to give up its weapons? Until now, it has refused to — otherwise, we could have had a ceasefire agreement much earlier.
It is unclear how Hamas would behave if a Palestinian, Arab or international party was granted the ability to govern the Gaza Strip. The big question will be whether such an agreement for the day-after scenario can be done while the Palestinian resistance remains armed. Who would agree to govern Gaza if there was no guarantee by Hamas that it would not use its armed power to sabotage governing policy?
Will the resistance commit to allowing reconstruction without engaging in violent actions against the governing body or even against Israel, which would surely retaliate and the war would be back on? Even if Hamas accepts the Arab plan of a temporary technocratic governing committee, how would the issue of it and Islamic Jihad's possession of weapons be bridged?
Some have suggested that the solution may be to place weapons in closed warehouses. But the most critical issue is whether the resistance, especially Hamas and Islamic Jihad, will agree to transition from violent to peaceful, nonviolent resistance and become political parties rather than armed resistance factions.
Thus, there are questions Israel must answer and some questions the resistance must answer. The question remains: Which parties have influence over the two sides to resolve the problems that stand in the way of ending the war and beginning the arduous process of rebuilding Gaza, while simultaneously working diligently to find a comprehensive political solution to the Palestinian issue?