Susan Collins' Chances of Winning Re-election in Maine, According to Polls

Newsweek

a day ago

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Republican Senator Susan Collins is facing an uphill battle as she prepares to seek a sixth term in 2026, with new polling suggesting she remains deeply unpopular among Maine voters.
The poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire between June 19-23 among 846 voters, also shows that Democratic Governor Janet Mills is considerably more popular than Collins, with speculation mounting that she may challenge Collins in 2026.
Newsweek reached out to Collins for comment.
Why It Matters
While Mills has not announced any plans to run for Senate, speculation about a possible challenge is growing, particularly as Collins' approval continues to lag. If the governor were to enter the race, she could present one of the strongest threats yet to Collins' decades-long hold on her Senate seat.
Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, leaves the Senate Republicans' lunch in the U.S. Capitol on Tuesday, June 24, 2025.
Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, leaves the Senate Republicans' lunch in the U.S. Capitol on Tuesday, June 24, 2025.
Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call/AP
What To Know
Despite her long tenure and national profile, only 14 percent of Mainers have a favorable opinion of Collins, compared to 57 percent who view her unfavorably, according to the poll.
Another 26 percent are neutral, while 2 percent say they don't know enough about her to say. That gives her a net favorability rating of –42, which is virtually unchanged from June 2022, when her rating stood at –40.
Notably, Collins' support appears weak even within her own party. Just 29 percent of Republicans have a favorable opinion of her, along with only 8 percent of independents and a mere 3 percent of Democrats.
In contrast, Democratic Governor Janet Mills remains significantly more popular and is increasingly seen as a potential challenger in 2026. Mills holds a net favorability rating of +10, with 51 percent of Mainers viewing her favorably and 41 percent unfavorably. Seven percent are neutral on Mills, and 1 percent say they don't know enough about her.
Mills' support is strongest among Democrats, 90 percent of whom view her favorably. However, her popularity is sharply divided along party lines: 91 percent of Republicans and 48 percent of Independents have an unfavorable opinion of her.
The poll had a margin of error of +/-3.4 percent.
Historically, the party in the White House loses seats in the midterms. Collins is viewed as one of the Democrats' top targets, as former Vice President Kamala Harris carried the state by about seven points last November.
Collins has been one of Donald Trump's most frequent critics in the Republican Party. She opposed Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's nomination, writing that he does not have the "experience and perspective necessary to succeed in the job."
In April, Collins joined a resolution to repeal Trump's tariffs on Canadian goods, arguing that the levies would hit Maine families and industries with higher costs for food, gasoline, and heating oil.
More recently, during a June 25 Senate Appropriations hearing, Collins pushed back against Trump's plan to rescind $9.4 billion in foreign aid and public broadcasting funds, arguing that the cuts would harm emergency communication and local media. She also raised concerns about the administration's "Big Beautiful Bill" to overhaul healthcare and taxes. Collins said she objects to deep Medicaid cuts and advocated for protections for rural hospitals and more modest tax increases on the ultra-wealthy.
Collins has not said if she will vote for the bill. However, Governor Mills urged Maine's congressional delegation to reject the budget reconciliation bill, citing "profoundly harmful consequences" for Mainers.
"States like Maine do not have the financial resources to absorb cuts of this magnitude," Mills wrote to Sens. Susan Collins and Angus King, and Reps. Chellie Pingree and Jared Golden. "Slashing essential services in this manner will only do the opposite of lowering taxes and fostering economic growth."
The New Hampshire poll shows that "Big Beautiful Bill" is unpopular among Mainers, only 30 percent of whom support its passage. Fifty-eight percent, on the other hand, say they do not want to see it become law.
Trump is also increasingly unpopular in the Pine Tree State, according to the poll. Sixty percent of respondents disapproved of him, while 40 percent approved of his job performance. In April, he was viewed positively by 42 percent of Mainers, according to UNH.
What Happens Next
Collins had not made a formal announcement about her reelection but told CNN in May it is her "inclination to run" and that she is "preparing to do so."
On the Democratic side, two candidates have declared their intent to run. David Costello, who ran in 2024 and held several different positions in Maryland, including acting secretary of the state's Department of the Environment, is running again. Jordan Wood, who served as chief of staff to former Representative Katie Porter, a California Democrat, is also running.
Governor Janet Mills has also not ruled out running, and some Democrats view her as a stronger candidate than those already in the race with deep ties to the state and having already won statewide.