7 Teams Can 'Realistically' Win The Super Bowl, According to ESPN's Computer
The first game of the 2025 NFL season is taking place on Thursday evening.
While it's just the preseason, football is back. The Los Angeles Chargers will be taking on the Detroit Lions in the first preseason game of the year. It's the Pro Football Hall of Fame Game, held in Canton, Ohio.
Everyone's hopes are always high heading into the preseason, as anything could happen. Everyone is 0-0 right now, after all. The postseason - and more - is still on the table for every team in the league.
But how many teams can actually win the Super Bowl this year? ESPN's computer has an idea.
According to ESPN's computer model, the Football Power Index, seven teams have a realistic chance of winning the Super Bowl this year.
The Football Power Index, which "is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule," updated earlier this summer.
It believes seven teams have at least a 5.0 percent chance or better of winning Super Bowl 60.
The 7 teams that can win the Super Bowl
According to ESPN's computer model, here are the 7 teams with a realistic chance of winning the Super Bowl.
The Commanders, led by second-year quarterback Jayden Daniels, are given a 5.0 percent chance to win the Super Bowl.
It's the seventh-best odds in the league.
Matthew Stafford hasn't retired yet. The Rams are given a 5.1 percent chance to win the Super Bowl.
Los Angeles is coming off a loss in the NFC Divisional Round, barely losing to the eventual Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles.
While 2024 felt like the Lions' year, they were shocked in the Divisional Round by the Commanders.
ESPN's computer remains high on them in 2025, though, giving them a 7.8 percent chance to win it all.
The Ravens have yet to truly break through under MVP quarterback Lamar Jackson, but maybe this will be their year.
ESPN's computer model is giving John Harbaugh's team a 9.5 percent chance to win the Super Bowl.
The Bills, much like the Ravens, have not been able to get past Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. But maybe that will change this year for Josh Allen.
Allen, coming off an MVP season, is being given a 9.6 percent chance to win his first Super Bowl, according to ESPN's Football Power Index.
The Chiefs failed to win three straight Super Bowls, losing to the Eagles in Super Bowl 59, falling in blowout fashion, 40-22, in February.
Travis Kelce decided to return for at least one more season, though, and the Chiefs will make a run at the Super Bowl.
ESPN's computer model is giving the Chiefs a 10.3 percent chance to win it all.
The Eagles, coming off a big win in Super Bowl 59, are the favorites to win it all again.
Philadelphia has a 10.9 percent chance of winning Super Bowl 60, as ESPN's computer model is currently picking Nick Sirianni's team to win back-to-back championships.
You can view the full odds for ESPN's computer model and the 2025 NFL season here.
7 Teams Can 'Realistically' Win The Super Bowl, According to ESPN's Computer first appeared on The Spun on Aug 1, 2025
This story was originally reported by The Spun on Aug 1, 2025, where it first appeared.
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