Iraq reopens airspace
The 12-day closure of Iraqi airspace began on June 13.
The decision comes after a Trump-brokered ceasefire between Iran and Israel aimed at easing soaring regional tensions.
Earlier this morning, a series of failed drone strikes targeted several Iraqi military bases, including sites in Taji and Dhi Qar. Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani condemned the attacks as 'cowardly' and vowed a strong response. No casualties or significant damage were reported, and no group has claimed responsibility.
The reopening of airspace follows yesterday's Iranian strike on the Al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar, which had prompted several Gulf countries, including Iraq, to suspend air traffic.
As Iraq continues to balance its relations with both the U.S. and Iran, officials stress the importance of preventing regional conflict from spilling into Iraqi territory.
The reopening of its airspace signals cautious optimism toward regional stability, though concerns remain about potential spillover into Iraqi territory.
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China's coast guard may breach Taiwan's contiguous zone – within 24 nautical miles of its coast – sending a message that Beijing does not recognize Taiwan's sovereignty. However, to maintain plausible deniability and avoid the appearance of an outright invasion, it may stop short of entering Taiwan's 12-nautical-mile territorial waters. Beijing could then impose strict customs protocols, authorizing its coast guard to board and inspect passing vessels. Ships that fail to comply with Beijing's rules will be denied passage, effectively disrupting Taiwan's supply lines. A blockade framed as a security quarantine may not be interpreted as an act of war under international law. This ambiguity is strategic – designed to avoid triggering direct military intervention by the U.S. and its allies under existing defense commitments to Taiwan. If Taiwan is unable to break or circumvent the blockade, it risks a gradual erosion of its sovereignty. Isolated and economically strangled, the island nation could be pushed toward a slow and reluctant surrender – accomplishing Beijing's objective without formally engaging in war. What If Taiwan Fights Back? If Taiwan chooses to respond militarily, it will provide Beijing with the justification it needs to escalate the conflict. In such a case, China would likely transition the operation from a quasi-civil enforcement action to a full-scale military campaign, with its navy taking the lead in enforcing the blockade. Taiwan will find itself rapidly drawn into a war it is ill-equipped to win. In the event of escalation, the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) would likely deploy submarines to mine the waters surrounding Taiwan, particularly near key ports and energy infrastructure. Simultaneously, the People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) could enforce a no-fly zone over Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ), asserting control over both air and maritime domains. To further isolate the island, China may sever Taiwan's 12 undersea telecommunications cables. While Taiwan maintain some satellite communications through a partnership with France's Eutelsat, these will prove insufficient to maintain full digital interconnection with the outside world. In short, any military escalation would deepen Taiwan's isolation and vulnerability. At this point, the United States and its allies might intervene – triggering one of several possible war scenarios, all of which will carry catastrophic consequences for Taiwan and its population. Faced with the risks, Taiwan's leadership will be confronted with a hard decision – whether to escalate the conflict and face possible devastation or to de-escalate – possibly at the cost of sovereignty – in an effort to spare its people from the horrors of war. Either way, China has a good chance of subsuming Taiwan in this manner. A blockade is a low-risk, high-leverage strategy to force Taiwan into submission. *Andrew J. 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an hour ago
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