Ray Thomas and Shayne O'Cass analyse every race at Rosehill on Saturday

News.com.au

a day ago

The Daily Telegraph racing editor Ray Thomas and form expert Shayne O'Cass debate the chances across 10 races at the McKell Cup meeting at Rosehill Gardens on Saturday.
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SUGGESTED BETS
RAY'S BEST
VALUE BET
Race 7 No.3: HOPEFUL
SHAYNO'S BEST
Race 6 No.8: USEAPIN
VALUE BET
Race 7 No.6: MORMONA
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RACE 1: MIDWAY HCP (1300m)
Ray Thomas: CRAFTY EAGLE (1) has improved steadily with each run this preparation and indicated he was close to top form again with a closing third to King Of Rouseau over this course and distance last start. He was forced back to the near the inside which wasn't the place to be last start and still ran on strongly. With the claim, he's not badly in at the weights and he's ready to win. MISS SPACEGIRL (11) and PRESIDES (7) are both very genuine and will be the mix, while HOW MUCH BETTER (10) was very good first-up and should improve.
Shayne O'Cass: PRETTY TAVI (12) has a very famous seventh dam, none other than Chicquita who was a champion on and off the track, RT. He had quite good form in Victoria but was never what you call 'city class'. That's not the case now that he is in NSW, Hawkesbury to be precise. His three Midway runs, all of them very good. KHUMBILA (6) is ready, in fact is crying out for 1300m third-up. He has finally drawn a good alley and that could make all the difference. ROLLING MAGIC (2) has some solid formlines.
King Of Roseau breaks the 532 day drought with a great win at Rosehill! ðŸ'¥ @djgibbons22 | @SnowdenRacing1 pic.twitter.com/9TdN4xR0NA
— SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) June 14, 2025
RACE 2: TAB HIGHWAY (1500m)
Thomas: I've got Brett Cavanough going 1-2 with NEW PHARAOH (5) and WARRIOR FOR PEACE (3), Shayno. New Pharaoh was trapped three-wide most of the way and still ran on strongly late to just miss a place over this trip late last month. New Pharaoh, who finished right alongside stablemate Warrior For Peace (third) last start meets his stablemate better at the weights and he's drawn to get the right run. Warrior For Peace is going to be hard to beat again. THINK LIKE PADDY (1) was competitive at Group 3 level in Brisbane last start and this is much easier. TO BE FRANK (8) is a chance at odds.
O'Cass: RED RAGS TO BULLS (10) has contested two Highways prior to this, finishing third to Super Norwest in the first and fourth to the same horse here at Rosehill two weeks ago. If he is going to win one, probably this is the one. THINK LIKE PADDY (1) ticks all the boxes so let me just throw in a bit of trivia regarding the name, RT. He is by So You Think and was bred by Patrick Hogan (who used to call Sir Tristram – Paddy). This is Sir Patrick's amazing Gay Poss family.
Thomas: Love your work, Shayno. In the third, I don't think there is much between PUNTIN (9) and TASORAAY (10). I'm leaning to Puntin after his good first-up effort when he was narrowly beaten at Canterbury. The step up to 1400m suits, he's very consistent and will be in the finish. Tasoraay might have gone too hard in front and was ambushed late by Don't Forget Jack last start. He will at his peak after two runs from a spell and will take running down. DON'T FORGET JACK (3) appreciated the solid tempo and overwhelmed his rivals with a fast finishing effort two weeks ago. If this race is run to suit, he will be hard to hold out again. NORTHERN EYES (2) is very genuine and deserves a win.
O'Cass: I'm going with a horse than ran 11th of 12 at Randwick last Saturday – PRETTY POWERFUL (12). His run was best summed up by the stewards – 'began awkwardly, held up over the final 400m and, as a result, was unable to be fully tested'. And that's putting it mildly! Can't imagine the same thing happening this weekend with barrier 11 of 12. I've always been a fan of AGITA (11). This is a nice race for the son of Adelaide to resume in. KADAL (6) has finished on the podium at 15 of 21 starts. Deserves another win and is getting close too.
Don't Forget Jack gets back to form with the perfect run at Rosehill! ðŸ'� @NockBraith | @ANeashamRacing pic.twitter.com/T3w9U1C9UM
— SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) June 14, 2025
RACE 4: PRECISE AIR HCP (1400m)
Thomas: WEEPING WOMAN (5) led for a long way only to be collared in the final few bounds by the very promising Sacred Rocks over 1300m here two weeks ago. She will be fitter after two runs from a spell and she gets any sort of control up front, she will be tough to catch. CAPTAIN AMELIA (1) has been improved by recent racing and is on the quick back-up after her solid effort when fourth as favourite at Randwick last week. She's worth another chance. CHANGING COLOURS (7) is very consistent but finds it hard to win. SUPER NORWEST (10) won a Highway last start and has each way claims.
O'Cass: PANJATI (6) was a $500,000 yearling, not so much because she is a Pierro, but the fact that her third dam is the broodmare gem, Shantha's Choice, dam of Redoute's Choice, Manhattan Rain and Platinum Scissors. Gerald Ryan co-trains Pajanti, he also trained her handy mother, Crystal Flute. As for Pajanti, she can't get to 1400m fast enough. WEEPING WOMAN (5) has been a very costly conveyance at her two runs this time; but in her defence, she struck a Heavy 8 first-up then drew 12 of 12 the next time and was only beaten a neck. CHANGING COLOURS (7) hasn't missed a medal in eight starts.
Thomas: LIVIN' THING (3) unleashed an impressive burst of acceleration to race away from his rivals at a Kensington midweek meeting last start. He's up in grace here but gets in well at the weights after the claim. MANAAJEM (13) was beaten as an odds-on favourite first-up at Warwick Farm but she's fitter and will improve on the drier track here. KING'S SECRET (5) has his chance when unplaced in a strong form race last start and he's also worth another chance. SOVEREIGN HILL (7) showed talent last season but is resuming off a long spell but he's trialling well.
O'Cass: USEAPIN (8) is a Chris Waller-trained filly by one of his two Everest winners – Yes Yes Yes. She's won three of her nine starts, albeit at the NSW provincials but she has run some honourable races when tried in town against the likes of More Territories and Aeliana no less. She was never let loose in either trial so watch for market moves. RANTAN (6) had no luck at Gosford there on Cup day in what has turned out to be a very strong form race. SPYWIRE (1) is almost certainly the best horse in the race and I will be watching if they back him.
Livin' Thing records an impressive win in Race 4 at Randwick Kensington. @JohnOSheaRacing pic.twitter.com/OIgu2nzjCP
— SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) June 11, 2025
RACE 6: SCHWEPPES HCP (1500m)
Thomas: MICKEY'S MEDAL (7) is in a rich vein of form although this is toughest test. He's won successive Rosehill 1500m races and is so genuine, he will be in the mix again. THUNDERLIPS (2) was held up for a run but when the gap came he burst through to score an impressive win. He's also racing in top form and carries weight well. SIR ARTIE (3) ran well first-up and can only improve. GREEN SHADOWS (1) ran a blinder in the Civic Stakes last week this easier race sets up well for him.
O'Cass: I've got TESTATOR SILENS (5) to do the ultimate form reversal here, RT. He was rock solid in betting when third-up here two weeks ago but as it turned out, he never passed a horse. Nothing in the stewards' report to shed light on the poor performance so we just have to write it off to horses not being machines. Me? I do think the 4kg reduction in weight will help. THUNDERLIPS (2) deserves so much praise for that win at Randwick last start. GREEN SHADOWS (1) is all but pitched in here with 57kg.
Thomas: HOPEFUL (3) hasn't won a race for over three years but this might be his chance. He stuck to his task in the Winter Cup last start to finish a close third and if he can repeat that effort, he will go close to winning. CASUAL CONNECTION (8) won well at Randwick then led for a long way under a big weight before his close second to Tympanist at Kensington. He drops 5kg and rates highly although the wetter the better for him. BACIO DEL MIST (10) got too far back in the Winter Cup but her effort tin the Lord Mayor's Cup two starts back indicates she can be competitive here. ALEGRON (2) has been struggling this campaign but if anywhere near his best, he would win this race.
O'Cass: MORMONA (6) has been on my radar since before and after he resumed in the Lord Mayors Cup where he ran an eye-catching seventh of 14. He followed that up with a sixth of 14 in the Winter Cup up against a fair few of this weekend's Stayers Cup rivals. By the way, this race should be 3200m if you ask me! I agree with HOPEFUL (3) – he's certainly overdue for another win. The one thing you know about CASUAL CONNECTION (8), he will stay the trip.
What a finish at Rosehill!
Sir Lucan fights off Bear On The Loose to win the Listed Winter Cup! â�'ï¸� pic.twitter.com/ZhbQFfixJ2
— SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) June 14, 2025
RACE 8: ASAHI SUPER DRY HCP (1800m)
Thomas: FEDERER (12) went back to the inside which was inferior going early in the straight then was guided back out wider before he ran eighth to Thunderlips at Randwick when resuming. There were excuses for his last start effort and he did show considerable potential when last in work. PIGGYBACK (10) can give trainer Ciaron Maher a stable quinella. She's racing well and wasn't disgraced when a close third to Shohisha in a slowly run race at Randwick last start. Drawn to get the right run and will be very competitive. PURE ALPHA (9) and MISTERKIPCHOGE (15) haven't been far away in recent starts and find themselves in a winnable race.
O'Cass: I was moderately keen on LENAPE VIBE (14) second-up but few were as he drifted from $51 to $61. Maybe he was run short, RT, but there is no doubt that he should have finished closer than he did. Take note he comes back from 2000m to 1800m but I'm mindful that he is one for one at the track and trip. KALZALARK (13) has raced himself into peak fitness now and gets to 1800m off his best run this time in. I can see where you are coming from with Federer. He will be fitter for his 'second serve'.
Thomas: ELAMAZ (3) is a stakes winner in France who has not missed a top two finish in seven starts, winning four. He makes his Australian debut off three barrier trials where he has shown tactical speed. Promising and this is not a strong race. LOCH EAGLE (2) charged home to win over the Randwick mile course last start and he has won up to 1800m before. This is his first attempt at 2000m but the way he attacked the line last start suggests this is the right time to test his stamina reserves. ADELAIDE RIVER (1) did run fourth in the Caulfield Stakes at weight-for-age last sprint and is resuming off two slashing trial wins. He's very talented and looks to have returned in great order. GLORY DAZE (6) is racing in good form.
O'Cass: ADELAIDE RIVER (1) boasts an absolutely fascinating CV. He is a son of Australia who won the English and Irish Derbies, just like his own father Galileo did. Adelaide River didn't win them but he ran in the English and Irish Derbies (second) as well as the French classic (which he ran second in as well). All we can say about the present day is that he is trialling like he is back in business. BELVEDERE BOYS (5) is two for two at the track and distance including a big win in the Country Classic.
Thomas: LIBERTY STATE (10) resumed with a dominant win at Rosehill, unleashing from back in the field with a powerful finishing surge. She's a smart mare building a good record and she is protecting a perfect second-up record. LADY EXTREME (13) broke through for a deserved confidence-boosting win when resuming at Rosehill and she could got right on with it now. SNACK BAR (12) has had a few chances but can't be overlooked and UNSTOPABULL (9) ran well for third in a good form race last start.
O'Cass: UNSTOPABULL (9) has a commendable overall record of 12 podium finishes from 20 starts and four of them are wins. I would venture to say a few of those eight placings could have been wins but for his pattern and/or circumstances beyond the horse's control. This is more or less his trip, RT, and with Jeff Penza on from a wide gate, it could be down the middle and over the top. FLYING DESTINY (5) has massive excuses for the first-up last at Canterbury when wide throughout being the gist. Drawn three this time.
Liberty State returns after a spell with a big win in the last at Rosehill, and that's a double to @djgibbons22! 🥳 @HawkesRacing | @aus_turf_club pic.twitter.com/gJDKGLq5Lb
— SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) May 31, 2025