The data that predicts this year's Eurovision winner. And why it's not looking good for the UK

Telegraph

16-05-2025

It's time for the annual spectacle where glitter, glamour, and geopolitics collide, entertaining millions across Europe and beyond. For Brits, Sam Ryder 's almost -triumphant 2022 performance aside (coinciding as it did with the same year Russia invaded Ukraine), it's a day of national humiliation – an annual reminder of either our hated position on the continent or awful taste in music. The UK is entering its 28th year without topping the Eurovision leader board.
Using our machine-learning model, we look at what truly is holding the UK back – music or politics – and what the country can learn from the rest of Europe, including our prediction for this year's winner.
Choice of song
Song-wise, the UK has played it safe over the years. With the vast majority of winning songs either pop or ballad, the UK has almost entirely followed this path, avoiding genres such as rock, which tend to score poorly, as we were made aware in 2013 when Bonnie Tyler's rock entry Believe In Me landed us in 19th place. However, this isn't always the case: notable first-place exceptions being the Italians' leather-clad, fiery entry Zitti e Buoni (Shut up and Behave) from Måneskin in 2021 and Loreen's EDM hit Euphoria in 2012.
Language barrier
The UK also stumbles into a second advantage: our language. In the past 20 years, 70 per cent of the winning songs have been sung in English, with the lingua franca aiding entrants to appeal to a broader audience, but this wasn't always the case. Historically, the contest had strict language rules forcing countries to perform in their native tongues.
Whilst this made the contest a celebration of linguistic diversity, it limited the ability of entries to resonate with audiences unfamiliar with Slovene, Maltese or other smaller European languages. When the rule was lifted, the dominance of English began in earnest, giving an edge to countries like the UK, Ireland, and Sweden, whose entries defaulted to the international language. Once again, exceptions to these rules exist. A notable example is the Portuguese 2017 ballad Amar Pelos Dois by Salvador Sobral, and Ukraine's Stefania by Kalush Orchestra in 2022.
Similarly, the UK's entries consistently hit the right beat. Our modelling finds that songs in a major key – that is happy, upbeat and brighter sounding – increase the song's odds of success. Whilst they tend to vary between the minor and major tone, the UK repertoire is heavily slanted towards happier songs, with 85 per cent of our entries in the last 15 years being in a major key. From Sam Ryder's Space Man (2022) to Katrina and the Waves' Love Shine a Light (1997) to Sandie Shaw 's Puppet on a String (1967), happy pays off for the Brits – and Eurovision contestants as a whole.
Across these three main areas, the UK hits all the right notes, statistically guaranteeing a high ranking spot rather than our average 18th place since 2010. If the song is right, perhaps it is the performance which brings us down.
Performance matters
The artist's performance on the night can make or break a country's entry. Eurovision is not short of iconic, over-the-top, eye-catching spectacles, from Finland's gothic Lordi to butter-churning Polish milkmaids.
Male performers have a noticeable edge, earning higher points on average than their female counterparts, a trend that the UK has made use of with 50 per cent of our participants in the last 20 years being male artists, as opposed to female artists or mixed groups.
Meanwhile, the UK appears to have carved out a distinctive approach to staging. Compared to other countries, the UK consistently opts for fewer backing dancers, with a lower-than-average number of dancers and minimal variation year-to-year on this choice. This restraint does not stand us in good stead however, with each back-up dancer adding on an average of 10 points to a country's entry in recent times.
Lastly, running order seems to play a pivotal role; acts that perform later in the final or semi-finals often rake in more points, a phenomenon known as recency bias. This plays to our advantage as we have coincidentally averaged quite a late running order position of 15 in the last 25 years, compared to the show's midpoint of 13.
Whilst the UK is often light on spectacle, bar perhaps Buck Fizz 's 1981 famous skirt-ripping routine, our performances, much like our songs, stand us in good stead. The final piece in the Eurovision puzzle is reputation.
Politics at play
It can often feel like Eurovision is a microcosm of broader European politics, with clusters of like-minded and historically linked countries scheming together. This is probably why the UK has long felt isolated on the Eurovision stage: short on allies in a game of bloc voting.
Since 2008, our Northern Europe voting bloc (UK, Ireland, Finland, Denmark…) has contributed the biggest point share out of all the European blocs for only a third of our entries, meaning for the other two-third entries we've received more support from distant countries than we have our closest neighbours. This is a stark contrast to countries like Ireland and Sweden, our fellow northern European countries, who have received the highest percentage of their points from our group on all occasions in the past 20 years.
Tight-knit blocs, particularly in Northern and Eastern Europe, significantly improve winning chances, either through mutual support or by rallying behind standout entries. Since the year 2000, Sweden has given 9 per cent of their total votes to Norway, and Norway has similarly sent 13 per cent, making them the strongest pair of point exchangers along with Cyprus and Greece, which have both given each other around 14 per cent.
The UK, meanwhile, often stands apart, both literally and figuratively, on the voting stage. While our shared cultural history and proximity suggest we should benefit from Northern Europe's solidarity, our relationship with the bloc has been tepid at best, and recent geopolitical shifts have only deepened the divide. The closest ally we have is Ireland, which has been our biggest points donor since 2000, contributing almost 10 per cent of our total received points.
Reputation also plays a role. Countries with a strong Eurovision legacy often enjoy a halo effect, perceived as reliable sources of quality. Our five historic wins should theoretically hold us in good stead, but with the last victory stretching back almost three decades, the newer generation of viewers will certainly not have the UK pegged as a strong producer of talent.
Predictions
With that in mind, bar a once-in-a-generation performance, the UK is going to struggle to win.
This year, our machine-learning model predicts a Swedish victory. The jaunty, folk-inspired song by KAJ leverages the pop genre with male performers and a decent number of backing dancers, all data-backed strategies, and further bolstered by Sweden's reputation as a Eurovision powerhouse. Most importantly, Sweden can count on its voting bloc for support, and its powerful Scandinavian alliances mark them as the act to beat.
The UK's entry, a pop anthem by Remember Monday, ticks many boxes for success, but will restrained staging (by Eurovision standards) and unfavourable voting patterns undermine these efforts once more?
In the end, the UK's struggles at Eurovision are less about our music and more about our place on the European stage. Time and again, our entries align with winning trends, yet we are outpaced by countries with tighter bloc support and stronger reputational momentum. Until the UK can mend its fractured ties with Europe, even the brightest melodies may struggle to find their echo across the continent.