US oil production to fall by 640,000 bpd by end-2026 amid surplus, demand slowdown: S&P Global
S&P Global Commodity Insights
, which cited a weaker demand environment and an oversupplied global market as key drivers.
S&P Global's latest Global Crude Oil Markets Short-term Outlook projects US oil production to average 13.34 million bpd in 2025, a growth of 131,000 bpd over the previous year, but 122,000 bpd lower than its earlier forecast. Production is expected to decline to 12.96 million bpd in 2026, marking the first year-on-year drop since 2020 and a fall of 378,000 bpd from previous projections.
'By the end of 2026, US oil production could be down 640,000 bpd from what it was in mid-2025,' the report stated.
The outlook also highlighted that year-on-year global crude oil and condensate production is expected to grow by 2.2 million bpd in the second half of 2025. In comparison, demand is projected to increase by only 390,000 bpd over the same period.
Total global liquids demand growth for 2025 is expected to average 770,000 bpd—its lowest annual increase since 2001, excluding the financial crisis of 2008–09 and the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.
This widening gap between supply and demand has prompted S&P Global to revise its crude price forecast. Dated Brent is expected to trade between mid-$60s and $50 per barrel for a period, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) may drop to the low $60s or upper $40s.
'The oil price is currently defenseless. Seasonal demand in the northern hemisphere summer may obscure the impact for a bit, but eventually there will be too much crude oil in the market absent a change in production trends,' said Jim Burkhard, Vice President and Global Head of Crude Oil Research at S&P Global Commodity Insights.
S&P Global noted that US shale production, due to its higher sensitivity to price signals, is more vulnerable than other sources of non-OPEC supply such as Canada, Guyana, and Brazil.
'In a lower price environment, US operators are likely to protect shareholder returns by reducing upstream spending. The result is a deceleration in growth to end the year, with the greatest impacts to production coming in 2026,' Burkhard said.
Ian Stewart, Associate Director at S&P Global Commodity Insights, said, 'The United States has been the biggest source of supply growth in recent years and a factor in OPEC+ supply restraint. Signs of weak US crude supply growth and decline could begin to alter oil market psychology. However, much will still depend on the future course of OPEC+ production and oil demand.'
The report follows the recent decision by OPEC+ members to accelerate the unwinding of production cuts. This, combined with output growth from other regions, is expected to add further pressure on prices.
S&P Global added that a significant decline in US production could contribute to a potential price recovery in the future, depending on demand growth and production policy adjustments by OPEC+ and other major producers.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Time of India
30 minutes ago
- Time of India
US stocks open muted with corporate earnings, trade talks in focus
Wall Street opened flat on Tuesday as investors weighed signs of potential trade deals between the U.S. and its partners ahead of the August 1 tariff deadline and assessed a spate of second-quarter company results. Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Wall Street opened flat on Tuesday as investors weighed signs of potential trade deals between the U.S. and its partners ahead of the August 1 tariff deadline and assessed a spate of second-quarter company Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 15.6 points, or 0.04%, at the open to 44338.62. The S&P 500 rose one point, or 0.02%, at the open to 6306.6, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 8.0 points, or 0.04%, to 20982.205 at the opening bell.
Business Standard
an hour ago
- Business Standard
Indices close flat amid cautious sentiment ahead of U.S. trade deal deadline
Domestic equity benchmarks closed mostly flat today, registering slight losses as investor sentiment remained cautious. Market participants continued to grapple with uncertainty ahead of the August 1 deadline for a potential U.S. trade agreement. The Nifty index settled just below the 25,100 mark. All sectoral indices on the NSE ended in the red, with PSU banks and realty stocks experiencing notable declines. The S&P BSE Sensex declined 13.53 points or 0.02% to 82,186.61. The Nifty 50 index fell 29.80 points or 0.12% to 25,060.90. Tata Motors (down 2.04%), Adani Ports & SEZ (down 1.93%) and Reliance Industries (down 1.08%) were major drags. The broader market underperformed the frontline indices. The S&P BSE Mid-Cap index dropped 0.62% and the S&P BSE Small-Cap index slipped 0.17%. The market breadth was negative. On the BSE, 1,790 shares rose and 2,231 shares fell. A total of 177 shares were unchanged. The NSE's India VIX, a gauge of the market's expectation of volatility over the near term, tumbled 4.01% to 10.75. Economy: India's core industries, which include eight key sectors, grew by 1.7% in June 2025, improving from a revised growth rate of 1.2% in May but significantly lower than the 5% growth recorded in June 2024. These eight core industries account for 40.27% of the total weight in the Index of Industrial Production (IIP). Numbers to Track: The yield on India's 10-year benchmark federal paper fell 0.05% to 6.296 from the previous close of 6.300. In the foreign exchange market, the rupee edged lower against the dollar. The partially convertible rupee was hovering at 86.3700 compared with its close of 86.3100 during the previous trading session. MCX Gold futures for 5 August 2025 settlement fell 0.18% to Rs 99,150. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback's value against a basket of currencies, was down 0.06% to 97.79. The United States 10-year bond yield rose 0.18% to 4.387. In the commodities market, Brent crude for September 2025 settlement shed 62 cents, or 0.90% to $68.59 a barrel. Global Markets: Most European shares tanked on Tuesday on lingering tariff uncertainties, while investors continued to wade through a deluge of quarterly corporate earnings. Asian stocks ended mixed as investors turned cautious ahead of the looming August 1 deadline for potential US trade tariffs. Japanese stocks, in particular, saw sharp swings after Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's ruling coalition lost its majority in the upper house. Wall Street offered little direction, with US indices closing mostly flat overnight despite hitting fresh intraday records. The spotlight this week remains firmly on corporate earnings, with Tesla and Alphabet set to report on Wednesday. By the close in New York, the Dow slipped 0.04%, the S&P 500 inched up 0.14%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.38%. Stocks in Spotlight: Eternal zoomed 10.56% after its quick commerce business, Blinkit, surpassed the food delivery segment in revenue during Q1 FY26. Eternal's quick commerce segment (Blinkit) Q1 revenue stood at Rs 2,400 crore (+155% YoY), surpassing the food ordering and delivery segment revenue of Rs 2,261 crore (+16.43% YoY). Eternal reported a 90.12% decline in consolidated net profit to Rs 25 crore on a 70.4% jump in revenue from operations to Rs 7,167crore in Q1 FY26 over Q1 FY25. Profit before tax (PBT) dropped 63.18% to Rs 88 crore from Rs 239 crore in Q1 FY25. The decline in profit was attributed to continued investments and subsidy expenses aimed at expanding the Blinkit business. Info Edge, which held a 12.38% stake in Eternal as of June 2025, saw its shares benefit sharply from Eternal's rally. Info Edge (India) rose 4.10% today. SML Isuzu hit an upper limit of 10% after the company's standalone net profit jumped 44.34% to Rs 66.96 crore, while revenue from operations rose 13.38% to Rs 845.89 crore in Q1 FY25, compared to Q1 FY24. AGI Greenpac surged 14.76% During the quarter, profit before tax jumped 39.6% year-on-year to Rs 118 crore, while profit after tax surged 40.5% YoY to Rs 89 crore, translating into a net margin of 12.3%. The companys net sales stood at Rs 687.66 crore in Q1 FY26, up 21.42% YoY, driven by improving operational efficiencies. Kirloskar Pneumatic Company dropped 11.15% following its subdued Q1 results. On a consolidated basis, net profit of Kirloskar Pneumatic Company rose 4.46% to Rs 28.10 crore while net sales declined 1.20% to Rs 272.00 crore in Q1 June 2025 compared to the same period last year. Blue Jet Healthcare hit a lower circuit of 10% after the companys standalone net profit fell 17.19% to Rs 91.17 crore despite 4.2% jump in revenue from operations to Rs 354.75 crore in Q1 FY26 over Q4 FY25. Colgate Palmolive (India) fell 0.60%. The company reported 11.91% decline in standalone net profit to Rs 320.62 crore on 4.38% fall in revenue from operations to Rs 1,420.64 crore in Q1 FY26 over Q1 FY25. Parag Milk Foods tanked 4.04%. The company reported a 1.02% increase in consolidated net profit to Rs 27.58 crore in Q1 FY26 from Rs 27.30 crore posted in Q1 FY25. Revenue from operation rose by 12.34% year-over-year (YoY) to Rs 851.52 crore during the period under review. Latent View Analytics added 3.26% after the company reported 30% jump in consolidated net profit to Rs 50.6 crore on a 31.9% increase in total revenue from operations to Rs 236 crore in Q1 FY26 as compared with Q1 FY25. Dev Information Technology (DEV IT) rose 5% after the company announced that it has secured an order worth Rs 1.29 crore from the National Informatics Centre Services Incorporated (NICSI). Oberoi Realty declined 0.54%. The company reported a 27.9% decline in consolidated net profit to Rs 421.25 crore on 29.7% fall in net sales to Rs 987.55 crore in Q1 June 2025 over Q1 June 2024. Dhanlaxmi Bank shed 0.27%. The bank reported a standalone net profit of Rs 12.18 crore in Q1 FY26 as against a net loss of Rs 8 crore posted in Q1 FY25. Total income jumped 20.45% year on year to Rs 407.06 crore in the quarter ended 30 June 2025.
Economic Times
an hour ago
- Economic Times
Robert Kiyosaki warns of US collapse, says Bitcoin, Gold, Silver are your only safe bets
Synopsis Robert Kiyosaki is warning of an impending "biggest crash in history," blaming the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and a "rigged system." He urges investors to abandon traditional savings in favor of hard assets like Bitcoin, gold, and silver. Kiyosaki believes Bitcoin, reaching new highs, offers protection against inflation and unstable financial systems, advocating for proactive investment strategies. Robert Kiyosaki, the author of the best-selling book Rich Dad Poor Dad, is once again raising the alarm. This time, he says the next economic downturn will be "the biggest crash in history." Kiyosaki sent a harsh message on X saying that the U.S. financial system is very close to falling apart and that regular savings won't protect anyone. ADVERTISEMENT Kiyosaki, calling the US economy a "rigged system" on the verge of collapse, is urging Americans to abandon traditional savings and invest in what he refers to as real assets. Robert Kiyosaki has long said that the Federal Reserve is irresponsible for printing "fake money." He says that the government has just printed more money instead of fixing the problems that caused the 1987 crash, the 1998 LTCM disaster, and the COVID-19 recession. He says that this cycle of bailouts and denial has made the U.S. dollar less valuable, which puts savers at risk. "The biggest crash in history is coming... soon." "Be careful," Kiyosaki said, urging his followers to act before it's too late, as per a report by The Street. blockquote class="twitter-tweet"p lang="en" dir="ltr"RICH DADs RULE: 'Savers are Losers.'br/br/Q: What does the Fed do when they F.U?br/br/A: 1987 Market Crash? PRINT fake $br/1998 LTCM collapse? PRINT fake $br/2019 Repo Market seizure? PRINTbr/COVID-19 Pandemic? PRINT fake $br/SILICON VALLEY BANK crash PRINTbr/br/It's not a new crisis….its the…/p— Robert Kiyosaki (@theRealKiyosaki) a href=" 21, 2025/a/blockquote script async src=" charset="utf-8"/script ADVERTISEMENT Many investors still use stocks and bonds, but Kiyosaki says that real protection comes from hard assets like Bitcoin, gold, and silver. He calls Bitcoin "the people's money" and thinks that the decentralized digital currency can protect people from inflation and government-controlled financial has always been a fan of Bitcoin, but the recent problems with the world's finances have made him more urgent. He has said many times that Bitcoin is the best long-term investment for people who want to protect their wealth, especially since trust in fiat currencies is falling. ADVERTISEMENT ALSO READ: End of six-figure coding jobs? Meet Devin: Goldman's new AI engineer that works like a human, but for no salary ADVERTISEMENT Bitcoin recently reached an all-time high of over $123,000 as people became more hopeful about cryptocurrency regulation in the U.S. It went over $120,000 just this month, and Kiyosaki thinks that's only the has even gone so far as to say that Bitcoin could reach $1 million in the future because more and more people don't trust traditional banks and want to move toward decentralized finance. He says that now is the time for regular investors to get ahead of the game. ADVERTISEMENT Kiyosaki strongly suggests buying physical gold and silver in addition to Bitcoin. He says that these physical assets have always been valuable, even when there was political unrest and economic instability. He wrote plainly, "Stop saving dollars." "Keep gold, silver, and Bitcoin." He advises Americans to take proactive measures and prepare for potential market crashes. He thinks that moving money out of fiat and into hard assets is no longer just smart; it's necessary. This is true whether you want to protect your retirement savings or just diversify your investments. What does Robert Kiyosaki recommend instead of saving money?He recommends that people invest in Bitcoin, gold, and silver to protect their wealth. Why does Kiyosaki believe a crash is imminent? He blames the Fed's endless money printing and rising debt for the impending collapse. (You can now subscribe to our Economic Times WhatsApp channel) (Catch all the US News, UK News, Canada News, International Breaking News Events, and Latest News Updates on The Economic Times.) Download The Economic Times News App to get Daily International News Updates. Scorching heat alert! These counties are under advisory — is your area bracing for the sizzle? Scorching heat alert! These counties are under advisory — is your area bracing for the sizzle? reAlpha Tech Corp (AIRE) stock explodes 347% in a day and shocks Wall Street — is this AI real estate play the next breakout or just hype? reAlpha Tech Corp (AIRE) stock explodes 347% in a day and shocks Wall Street — is this AI real estate play the next breakout or just hype? U.S. stock market futures dip slightly today — is this the calm before the Big Tech earnings storm as Wall Street awaits Tesla, Microsoft, and Alphabet results? U.S. stock market futures dip slightly today — is this the calm before the Big Tech earnings storm as Wall Street awaits Tesla, Microsoft, and Alphabet results? NYT Mini Crossword Hints, July 22: Decode today's puzzle and answers with this complete guide NYT Mini Crossword Hints, July 22: Decode today's puzzle and answers with this complete guide NYT Strands hints today, July 22: Spangram, themes and answers to decipher today's challenge NYT Strands hints today, July 22: Spangram, themes and answers to decipher today's challenge Wordle Hints July 22: Clues and answer to solve the Tuesday puzzle #1494 to keep the streak alive Wordle Hints July 22: Clues and answer to solve the Tuesday puzzle #1494 to keep the streak alive NYT Connections Hints July 22: Clues and answers to crack the Tuesday puzzle | Complete breakdown NYT Connections Hints July 22: Clues and answers to crack the Tuesday puzzle | Complete breakdown Genshin Impact's new, spooky, Nod-Krai region reveal send fans into frenzy Genshin Impact's new, spooky, Nod-Krai region reveal send fans into frenzy Joe Biden took sleeping pills ahead of US Presidential debate, Hunter Biden reveals details about father's mental health Joe Biden took sleeping pills ahead of US Presidential debate, Hunter Biden reveals details about father's mental health South Korean ex-first lady Kim Keon Hee's big fall, faces bribery charges, degrees revoked for plagiarism NEXT STORY
