USA vs. Mexico Odds, Best Bets: USA Seeks Upset Of Mexico In Gold Cup Final
Diego Luna (left), Sebastian Berhalter (right) and the Americans are slight betting underdogs vs. archrival Mexico in tonight's Gold Cup Final.
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A rollercoaster ride for the US Men's National Team over the last few weeks concludes tonight with a highly anticipated Gold Cup Final clash with Mexico at NRG Stadium in Houston.
Despite the absences of a number of top players including Christian Pulisic, two rough pre-Gold Cup friendlies and an unconvincing run through group play, USA managed to take down Costa Rica and Guatemala in knockout play to reach another Gold Cup Final.
Mexico, on the other hand, has been dominant defensively throughout this tournament, with 0 goals allowed in the last 360 minutes.
After ugly showings at the 2022 World Cup and 2024 Copa America, the vibes around El Tri under veteran Manager Javier Aguirre -- who is the fourth man to lead this team since Juan Carlos Osorio left the role after the 2018 World Cup -- are the best they've been in a long time.
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USA vs. Mexico Betting Odds
Below are the odds from three top sportsbooks in the two most popular markets for soccer matches: three-way moneyline and match winner.
Gold Cup Final Three-Way Moneyline Odds: USA vs. Mexico
The DraftKings, FanDuel and bet365 three-way moneyline odds below apply to today's result after 90 minutes, plus stoppage time.
DK FD bet365 USA +220 +220 +230 Mexico +150 +145 +150 Draw +200 +195 +190
Gold Cup Final Winner Odds: USA vs. Mexico
Sportsbooks also offer each team's odds to advance tonight.
In this market, it doesn't matter whether the winner comes out on top in 90 minutes, extras or PKs.
DK FD bet365 USA +110 +120 +110 Mexico -135 -142 -138
How to Watch USA vs. Mexico Gold Cup Final
Kickoff : 7 p.m. ET
: 7 p.m. ET TV: FOX
USA vs. Mexico Gold Cup Final History
USA and Mexico have met in the Gold Cup Final seven previous times (1993, 1998, 2007, 2009, 2011, 2019 and 2021).
USA beat Mexico in 2007 and 2021, but Mexico raised the trophy at the Americans' expense in every other final between these countries.
USA vs. Mexico Betting Analysis, Pick
USA deserves credit for the scrappiness it showed vs. Costa Rica and Guatemala, but this squad will be at a clear talent disadvantage vs. Mexico tonight.
While Diego Luna and Malik Tillman have helped the Americans generate enough scoring opportunities to beat weaker competition, they'll face a massive challenge tonight. The Mexico back line has not only combined with goalie Luis Angel Malagon to produce four straight clean sheets, but it has also posted jaw-dropping advanced metrics defensively.
Mexico Game-By-Game Gold Cup Defensive Statistics
The numbers below come from soccer analytics site FOTMOB. xGA refers to expected goals allowed.
Opponent xGA Big Chances Shots Shots on Goal Dominican Republic (group) 0.74 1 12 5 Suriname (group) 0.18 1 5 2 Costa Rica (group) 0.44 1 6 0 Saudi Arabia (QF) 0.02 0 1 0 Honduras (SF) 0.10 0 6 1
Given those numbers, it's hard to overstate how difficult it will be for USA to generate quality chances tonight. That means Luna, Tillman, Patrick Agyemang and anyone else who gets a look will have to be absolutely clinical.
Unfortunately for USA, they will also be tested defensively by Mexico in a way that they weren't against Costa Rica and Guatemala. The Mexican attack led by Raul Jimenez and Santiago Gimenez is much more dangerous than the last two opponents the Americans faced, and the USMNT didn't exactly shut down either of them.
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While the Americans dominated possession against both Costa Rica and Guatemala, they gave up two goals (on three shots on target and 1.59 xGA) to a shorthanded Costa Rica attack missing Manfred Ugalde. In the 2-1 semifinal win over Guatemala, USA allowed five shots on goal, two big chances, per FOTMOB, and 1.32 xG.
Left back Max Arfsten scored a huge goal in the quarterfinals vs. Costa Rica, but he's had a rough tournament defensively. He'll have a tough matchup vs. Mexican winger Roberto Alvarado, while Alexis Vega will put a ton of pressure on 20-year-old American right back Alex Freeman.
USA vs. Mexico Gold Cup Final Injury, Suspension News
Everyone on this version of the USA roster is available tonight. While tonight's group is by no means the first-choice American lineup, Mauricio Pochettino's Gold Cup squad is technically at full strength entering the final.
Mexico is missing midfielder Luis Chavez, who recently suffered torn ACL, but will otherwise be at full strength tonight.
USA vs. Mexico Gold Cup Final Best Bets
USA beat Mexico without a number of top players in the 2021 Gold Cup Final, and it has not lost to El Tri in a competitive match since the 2019 Gold Cup Final.
Tonight, however, Mexico has the better roster, and I expect it to score at least a goal or two on the shaky USA back line while limiting opportunities for Luna and Co.
No one should be shocked to see the Americans find a way to scrape out a draw through 90 minutes and if that happens, all bets are off for extra time and/or PKs.
But the best bets tonight are Mexico to win and Mexico to score Over 1.5 goals, especially at longer than +180. Another tempting plus-money option is Both Teams To Score -- Yes at plus-money.
Three-Way Moneyline Mexico (+150 at DK, bet365) -- 1 unit
Away Team (Mexico) Over 1.5 Goals (+186 at FD) -- 0.5 units
Both Teams To Score -- Yes (+112 at FD) -- 0.5 units
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