Michael Kugelman Revisits the India-Pakistan Crisis
In early May, India and Pakistan were on the brink of war: they exchanged missile fire, sent drones across each other's borders to conduct attacks, and engaged in aerial combat. The conflagration was thankfully short lived; after four days, the two sides declared a ceasefire, causing some analysts to dub the events the '100-hour war.' But the episode, however brief, may have reshaped deterrence dynamics between the nuclear-armed neighbors in a more lasting way.
In the following interview, Michael Kugelman, a South Asia expert and a senior fellow (nonresident) at the Asia Pacific Foundation, explains why the May 2025 clashes were unique from previous India-Pakistan strikes. 'The scale and the intensity of the recent conflict was so much greater than what we've seen for so long,' Kugelman told The Diplomat.
Even after the ceasefire, the India-Pakistan relationship is far from returning to the status quo ante. India has 'suspended all trade with Pakistan, closed down the only open land border, and suspended the Indus Waters Treaty,' Kugelman pointed out. 'These are drastic steps, and, in the case of the IWT move, unprecedented.'
With the benefit of time and hindsight, how serious was the India-Pakistan crisis of early May? What was different in the latest round of strikes, versus previous episodes in 2019 and 2016?
It was very serious, given the level of escalation and the scale of the hostilities. I'd argue it was the biggest test of the nuclear deterrent since both countries formally became nuclear states in 1998 – with the only possible exception of the massive military mobilization along the border in 2001 and 2002.
What we saw in May was part of a consistent pattern in India-Pakistan escalation dynamics over nearly a decade: Each side is comfortable using increasing amounts of limited conventional force below the nuclear threshold. In 2016, India staged what it described as 'surgical strikes' – commandos crossing the border to target terrorists on the other side. In 2019, India launched air strikes on Pakistan, resulting in a Pakistani response and a brief dogfight in the skies before the conflict wound down.
In the most recent case, Operation Sindoor, India carried out air strikes that were greater in scale than in 2019, resulting in a more muscular Pakistani response. And, unlike in 2019, there was another phase in the conflict beyond the initial strike and counterstrike: Both sides launched missiles and drones against each other.
This consistent pattern, however, may mask just how different this crisis was from the previous ones – and in ways that amplify just how serious the escalation risks could be when the next conflict breaks out. Four key differences stand out.
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The Diplomat
4 hours ago
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Exclusive Interview With Detained Activist Dr Mahrang Baloch
The Baloch Yakjehti Committee (BYC) has been advocating for Baloch rights since it was founded in 2020. Since its early days, when the movement was known as the Bramsh Yakjehti Committee, the BYC has organized peaceful protests against the excessive use of force by the Pakistani state in Balochistan – including forced disappearances, extrajudicial killings, and other forms of repression. Also since its beginning, the BYC has been led by women – including Dr. Mahrang Baloch. The 32-year-old became an activist after her father was 'disappeared' in 2009. He was released – only to be abducted again in 2011, and this time killed. Ever since, Mahrang had been a central figure in the movement for human rights and justice in Balochistan, including being honored by Time magazine as of the 100 most influential leaders of 2024. Led prominently by women, including Dr. Mahrang Baloch herself, the BYC represents a new generation of progressive political activism in a region long marred by conflict and marginalization. The Pakistani state has responded to this peaceful mobilization with a sweeping crackdown and arrests, disinformation campaigns, and detentions without due process. In March 2025, Mahrang – along with several other BYC leaders – was arrested, and she has been held in detention ever since, where they report 'continuous mistreatment and harassment.' This exclusive interview with Mahrang, conducted via an intermediary who was able to visit her in prison, offers a rare and urgent insight into the thinking of a movement that, in recent months, has mobilized tens of thousands across Balochistan in protests against enforced disappearances and state repression. Mahrang offers her perspective on the current state of the BYC and its leadership while under state custody, as well as the broader challenge of extremism and the future of political activism and human rights advocacy under increased state repression and now threats from the Islamic State's local branch. In recent months, Balochistan has witnessed a troubling surge in religious extremism, most notably with the emergence of Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP), a group that appears to operate at both regional and international levels. This group has singled you out, publishing your photo in a booklet and labeling you as 'evil' and a 'Western puppet.' How do you respond to these personal attacks? And more broadly, what does the rise of such groups signal for the future of progressive politics in Balochistan? Balochistan has a peculiar and complex history with religious extremism. However, the roots of this extremism are not embedded in Baloch society itself. Based on clear evidence, we assert that religious extremism was imposed upon Baloch society – it was, in a sense, installed from the outside. The influence of religious radicalism in Balochistan began to emerge prominently during the Afghan War and became more pronounced after 9/11. If we study Baloch society from a historical perspective, it is inherently secular, a society that has traditionally embraced religious, ethnic, and regional tolerance and coexistence. The emergence of Islamic State in Balochistan and the threats made against me or declaring me an apostate are not something new. For the past two decades, we have witnessed how religious extremists have been used as a tool against the progressive Baloch political movement and against progressive educators, writers, intellectuals, and journalists. For example, Professor Saba Dashtiari, a Baloch intellectual and teacher at the University of Balochistan, openly criticized the state for human rights violations in Balochistan. In 2011, he was murdered in broad daylight in front of the university. A religious extremist group claimed responsibility for his assassination through the media. Similarly, Professor Razzaq Zehri in Khuzdar was killed merely for promoting co-education and free education for all deserving students. Likewise, in Gwadar, Sir Zahid Askani was also murdered for the same reason. And just last year in Turbat, another educator, Sir Rauf Baloch, met a similar fate. Progressive political activists in Balochistan, those who criticize the policies of the Pakistani state and advocate for human rights, face a dual threat. On one hand, they are subjected to enforced disappearances and extrajudicial killings by the state of Pakistan. On the other hand, they receive death threats from religious extremist armed groups. Last month, Islamic State released my photo, branded me a European agent and an apostate, and warned the public not to attend our events. This rhetoric mirrors the language used against me by ISPR [Inter-Services Public Relations, the media wing of the Pakistani military] in their press conferences. I had long anticipated that a group like Islamic State would eventually be activated and deployed against us, because we have been observing this pattern in Balochistan for the past 20 years, as exemplified by the cases I mentioned above. I believe that threats from Islamic State or their activation against us will not significantly impact progressive politics in Balochistan. The Baloch political society has matured considerably, and the people of Balochistan are well aware of the truth, specifically, who is backing these religious extremists and why. The public fully understands this reality. Our greatest success is that the majority of the Baloch people stand with us. And as long as that remains true, the use of extremist groups like Islamic State against us will not put an end to our struggle. The progressive political circles in Balochistan are deeply rooted. Tactics like these will not silence the progressive political movement in Balochistan, nor will threats from Islamic State silence us. You have now been imprisoned for over three months. During this period, Pakistan's military spokesperson, in multiple ISPR press briefings, has described you as a 'proxy of terror' and used terms like 'evil face' in reference to your activism. How do you respond to these characterizations by the state's military apparatus? For the past three months, I have been detained unlawfully. During this time, according to the information available to me, ISPR has mentioned me in three to four press conferences or media briefings. In each instance, the same baseless accusations were repeated, such as: 'Mahrang is a proxy of terrorists,' or 'Mahrang is a foreign agent,' and so on. Despite being a powerful state with a 600,000-strong army, numerous intelligence agencies, and various civil institutions, ISPR has not presented even one piece of actual evidence against me. Instead, they have relied solely on false accusations and a media trial aimed at character assassination. The military spokesperson has repeatedly misrepresented the press conference I held on March 19 at the Quetta Press Club. That press conference was not about the armed attack on the Jaffar Express or the return of the bodies of armed individuals. In reality, it was held to highlight the harassment faced by our fellow human rights defenders at the hands of Pakistani security forces. We had also submitted related cases to the United Nations Human Rights bodies. The video and written transcript of that press conference are still publicly available in the media. At the end of the press conference, a journalist asked a question regarding the return of bodies lying in the Civil Hospital Quetta to their families. In response, I merely said that the bodies should be identified and handed over to the families, as this is their constitutional right. That is the only comment I made on the matter. The full recording of the press conference exists, and any institution can verify that I made no unlawful or unconstitutional remarks during it. The second allegation that the Pakistani military repeatedly makes against me and my colleagues is that we broke into the gates of the Civil Hospital Quetta to retrieve the bodies of armed individuals. I challenge the Pakistani military to provide evidence to support this claim. If they can, I will declare myself guilty. On that evening, I was at the Quetta Press Club, and afterward, I went straight to my home. Any independent investigative body is welcome to review CCTV footage from the Quetta Press Club and the city of Quetta, or to interview individuals present on that day. My colleagues, our organization, the Baloch Yakjehti Committee (BYC), and I have consistently spoken out against violence and injustice. Wherever I've had the opportunity to speak or write, whether in Pakistan or internationally, I have clearly and unequivocally opposed violence. This is our well-established policy. I believe the real issue ISPR and the Pakistani military have with us is that we raise our voices against the state's violent policies and human rights violations in Balochistan. We question them, we hold different views, and our position has gained international recognition. Our peaceful struggle has been acknowledged globally, and our voice is being heard. This is what troubles the Pakistani military most. That is why ISPR, in its repeated press conferences, is branding me and our organization, the BYC, as terrorists without providing a shred of evidence. The purpose of these statements is clearly to create a false international narrative that Mahrang and the BYC are proxies of terrorists, in an attempt to silence international discourse on human rights violations in Balochistan and to delegitimize our voice. However, it seems the Pakistani military wrongly assumes that international human rights organizations operate like domestic Pakistani media – that they will believe anything, no matter how baseless. But no credible person or institution accepts accusations without evidence. They demand proof or valid evidence. In response to ISPR's false allegations, I have issued a legal notice demanding that either ISPR prove these allegations in court or issue a formal apology. Now we will see how the Pakistani judiciary fulfills its responsibility and whether it will hold the military spokesperson accountable. Reports have emerged through social media, open letters, and messages from your colleagues that you and other detained members of the Baloch Yakjehti Committee have faced harassment, mistreatment, and denial of basic rights in prison. There are accounts of torture, a hunger strike, and the severe case of Beebow Baloch. Can you describe the conditions of your imprisonment and your other colleagues and the nature of the treatment you and other BYC detained leaders have received? Yes, in prison, we have been subjected to continuous mistreatment, harassment, and denial of our basic rights. On the night of April 24 at 8:00 p.m., personnel from the Quetta Police and Counter Terrorism Department (CTD) unlawfully entered the prison and brutally assaulted me and my colleagues, Beebow Baloch and Gulzadi Baloch. During this incident, Beebow Baloch was transferred from Hudda Jail Quetta to Pishin Jail, where she was severely tortured during the transfer. Surveillance cameras were even installed inside her barracks and restroom, violating her privacy. In protest against her transfer and the inhumane treatment she faced, we went on a five-day hunger strike. Ten days later, Beebow Baloch was brought back to Hudda Jail, and she continued her hunger strike for ten consecutive days. Inside the prison, we are continuously harassed and threatened. Our family has been denied access to basic facilities and necessities on multiple occasions, and we have had to suspend visits and meetings with legal counsel. Following the Jaffar Express attack, the Pakistani state – through its media apparatus, official channels, and social media team – directly accused you and the Baloch Yakjehti Committee of supporting terrorism. Yet the BYC is widely known, both locally and internationally, as a peaceful human rights movement. Why do you believe the state is attempting to criminalize your activism? What political calculations or anxieties do you think lie behind this campaign? In March 2025, following an armed attack on the Jaffar Express in Balochistan, the state used the incident as a pretext to target our peaceful political organization, the BYC. A severe crackdown was launched against us, despite the fact that we had no any type of connection to the attack or any act of violence. The entire episode appeared orchestrated, with one clear objective: to silence or dismantle the Baloch Yakjehti Committee, as we have been a strong and consistent voice against human rights violations in Balochistan. We have always raised our voices against all forms of injustice and abuse, and it is this peaceful dissent that the state finds intolerable. Consequently, efforts were made to associate our non-violent struggle with an act of armed violence. However, the BYC is a peaceful political organization. We have never engaged in nor endorsed violent politics. Since our inception, our position and method of struggle have been clear: we resist the state's oppression and brutality in Balochistan through non-violent means. To date, not a single stone has been broken at any of our gatherings or protests – yet we have faced violent crackdowns from the state from day one. After the Jaffer Express attack, the state launched an aggressive media campaign against the BYC, attempting to malign our peaceful political efforts by falsely linking us to the incident. We were repeatedly pressured to issue condemnations that served the state's narrative. But our stance has always been unequivocal: we do not support armed struggle or violence in any form, and this position has been documented in the media multiple times. Nevertheless, our organization has faced an intense crackdown. Following the attack, the Balochistan government suspiciously buried several unidentified bodies in the Kaasi Graveyard in Quetta. Some bodies were stored in the morgue at Civil Hospital Quetta, with no access granted to anyone. This sparked panic and fear among the families of Baloch victims of enforced disappearances, as they feared their missing loved ones might be among the dead. For years, the state has used armed attacks as a cover to execute extrajudicial killings. Victims of enforced disappearances are taken from secret detention centers, killed, and then falsely portrayed as militants killed in combat. Sometimes, the bodies of actual militants are accompanied by those of forcibly disappeared persons to suggest they died together. These incidents are not isolated; as an organization, we have documented evidence of many such cases. The same fear gripped families once again. Every day, relatives of missing persons visited Civil Hospital Quetta, demanding a basic and constitutionally protected right: access to the bodies or disclosure of their identities, so they could determine whether their loved ones were among them. In retaliation for these lawful and peaceful demands, the state brutally targeted these families, subjecting them to violence and further enforced disappearances. The Baloch Yakjehti Committee stood with these families, raised their voices, and supported them through this painful ordeal. As a consequence, our leadership and members have faced the harshest state repression. The recent crackdown against our organization began on March 20, when, at 5 a.m., our colleague Bibagar Baloch was arrested at his home. When we launched a peaceful protest against his arrest, the state responded with violent repression and opened direct fire on the protesters. This resulted in the deaths of three people, including a young child, and left dozens injured. We then held a peaceful sit-in alongside the bodies of those killed. It was during this protest that Beebow Baloch and I were arrested, followed by the arrest of several of our other members. The real reason behind the state crackdown on the BYC is our non-violent resistance to Pakistan's human rights violations, violence, and injustice in Balochistan. Instead of acknowledging our peaceful movement or addressing our demands for justice, the Pakistani state continues to delegitimize our struggle by leveling baseless accusations and using force against our activists. I believe that my arrest and the arrest of my colleagues, the crackdown on the BYC, the state-led media campaign to malign us, and ongoing efforts to damage our reputation are all part of a deliberate attempt to psychologically pressure us into abandoning our political principles and programs. The aim is to silence our voice against human rights abuses in Balochistan, so that the Pakistani military can continue its exploitation of the region's resources and oppression of its people without resistance or accountability. With the emergence of ISKP in Balochistan, and given its explicit threats toward you and other BYC members, how does the Baloch Yakjehti Committee plan to respond? What strategies do you envision for navigating this increasingly volatile political and security environment? As I have already mentioned above, both Islamic State and the spokespersons of the Pakistan military are using the same language against us. Their tone is identical. Both are troubled by our struggle, both speak of eliminating us, both label us as foreign agents, and both feel threatened by our progressive stance. They view our political and human rights struggle as a danger, and in response, ISPR's press conferences and Islamic State's threatening audio-visual content and pamphlets have used hateful and violent language against us. I believe their sole aim is to silence me and my colleague, or to coerce us into abandoning our struggle. We are being subjected to relentless psychological pressure through various means. First, I was arrested. Then, ISPR held repeated press conferences against me, launching character assassination campaigns. A false and misleading media narrative was spread to manipulate international public opinion. The families of my colleagues, Dr. Sabiha Baloch and Beebow Baloch, were collectively punished. Over 300 of our members were detained. An undeclared ban was imposed on the political activities of our organization. The law was weaponized against me and my colleagues. Every peaceful protest was met with violence against our members. Despite all this, our colleagues have remained committed to their peaceful political and human rights activism. Even in the face of imprisonment, torture, arrest, media trials, and false accusations, neither I nor my colleagues have chosen silence. We have remained resolute in continuing our peaceful struggle against human rights violations in Balochistan. When our unwavering commitment became evident, Daesh ultimately became active against us, issuing death threats and calling for our elimination. Yet, we are fully determined that we will not remain silent about the human rights abuses in Balochistan. No matter the cost, we will continue our peaceful struggle, because our demands are simple and lawful: an immediate end to all forms of oppression and violence in Balochistan, and the constitutional and legal right of the Baloch people to make their own decisions regarding their future. Crackdowns on political dissent in Pakistan have intensified in recent years, affecting movements across the ideological spectrum, from the Pashtun Tahafuz Movement (PTM) to the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI). Given this broader climate of repression, how do you see the future of the Baloch Yakjehti Committee? What role do you believe it can continue to play, both within Balochistan and nationally? From day one, the BYC has strived to unite all oppressed and state-affected people within Pakistan, to foster harmony among them, and to lead a collective struggle against human rights violations and for the attainment of public rights. This effort stems from the reality that every community and nation in Pakistan today is suffering under state oppression and injustice. A majority of political leaders have been imprisoned, peaceful political activism has been criminalized, dissenting voices are being silenced, the media is fully controlled, and even the judiciary is being manipulated through controversial measures like the 26th Constitutional Amendment. In essence, a full-fledged authoritarian regime is in place in Pakistan. In the face of this, it is imperative that all oppressed nations and communities come together in a united struggle against this dictatorship.
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