Latest news with #Kugelman
India Today
01-07-2025
- Business
- India Today
US-China race for Pakistan: Trump's transactional diplomacy or Xi's financial doles?
With China announcing a $3.4 billion loan rollover for Pakistan and an increased engagement between Washington DC and Islamabad, experts believe that Pakistan could emerge as a surprising centre of attention-garnering renewed interest not just from China, its long-standing ally, but also from an increasingly transactional Trump-led United States. To unpack these evolving dynamics, we spoke to Michael Kugelman, Senior Fellow at the Asia Pacific Foundation, who offered deep insights into the strategic recalibration underway in the In a rapidly shifting South Asian geopolitical landscape, Kugelman highlighted how Pakistan's civilian and military leadership, particularly Field Marshal Asim Munir, has effectively tapped into key U.S. interests-from critical minerals to cryptocurrency and counterterrorism. These alignments, though narrow, have sparked a fresh wave of engagement with Washington, despite Pakistan's entrenched alliance with China. In fact, recent developments include crypto firms linked to Trump's family doing deals with Pakistan's new crypto council—pointing to a blend of policy and personal interests driving U.S. Iran and Afghanistan, Kugelman noted limited but real convergence, especially on counterterrorism. He also pointed out how the U.S. may be using Pakistan's proximity to Iran to quietly gather intelligence, even amid limited military strikes. India, meanwhile, appears sidelined-possibly due to its cautious response to Trump's claimed role in brokering a ceasefire with Pakistan. Kugelman cautioned, however, against overstating a U.S.-Pakistan pivot, noting strong underlying India-U.S. ties and ongoing trade also touched on Pakistan's adept diplomacy in balancing its China and U.S. relations, and how shifts in Bangladesh and growing ties with Turkey further strengthen Islamabad's strategic for Trump himself, Kugelman described his fascination with power figures like Muneer, contrasting it with his longstanding rapport with Prime Minister Modi-hinting that personal chemistry may yet influence future U.S.-India ties. - EndsMust Watch
The Diplomat
30-06-2025
- Politics
- The Diplomat
Michael Kugelman Revisits the India-Pakistan Crisis
'This is the first time since each country went nuclear that we've seen so much force used in so many places.' In early May, India and Pakistan were on the brink of war: they exchanged missile fire, sent drones across each other's borders to conduct attacks, and engaged in aerial combat. The conflagration was thankfully short lived; after four days, the two sides declared a ceasefire, causing some analysts to dub the events the '100-hour war.' But the episode, however brief, may have reshaped deterrence dynamics between the nuclear-armed neighbors in a more lasting way. In the following interview, Michael Kugelman, a South Asia expert and a senior fellow (nonresident) at the Asia Pacific Foundation, explains why the May 2025 clashes were unique from previous India-Pakistan strikes. 'The scale and the intensity of the recent conflict was so much greater than what we've seen for so long,' Kugelman told The Diplomat. Even after the ceasefire, the India-Pakistan relationship is far from returning to the status quo ante. India has 'suspended all trade with Pakistan, closed down the only open land border, and suspended the Indus Waters Treaty,' Kugelman pointed out. 'These are drastic steps, and, in the case of the IWT move, unprecedented.' With the benefit of time and hindsight, how serious was the India-Pakistan crisis of early May? What was different in the latest round of strikes, versus previous episodes in 2019 and 2016? It was very serious, given the level of escalation and the scale of the hostilities. I'd argue it was the biggest test of the nuclear deterrent since both countries formally became nuclear states in 1998 – with the only possible exception of the massive military mobilization along the border in 2001 and 2002. What we saw in May was part of a consistent pattern in India-Pakistan escalation dynamics over nearly a decade: Each side is comfortable using increasing amounts of limited conventional force below the nuclear threshold. In 2016, India staged what it described as 'surgical strikes' – commandos crossing the border to target terrorists on the other side. In 2019, India launched air strikes on Pakistan, resulting in a Pakistani response and a brief dogfight in the skies before the conflict wound down. In the most recent case, Operation Sindoor, India carried out air strikes that were greater in scale than in 2019, resulting in a more muscular Pakistani response. And, unlike in 2019, there was another phase in the conflict beyond the initial strike and counterstrike: Both sides launched missiles and drones against each other. This consistent pattern, however, may mask just how different this crisis was from the previous ones – and in ways that amplify just how serious the escalation risks could be when the next conflict breaks out. Four key differences stand out.
DW
10-06-2025
- Business
- DW
Pakistan boosts military spending amid India tensions – DW – 06/10/2025
Pakistan has boosted defense spending despite battling severe economic challenges. The military has seen a surge in popularity since recent clashes with India. Pakistan has decided to substantially hike its military spending in the wake of recent clashes with its archrival and nuclear-armed neighbor, India. Islamabad raised next year's defense budget to 2.55 trillion Pakistani rupees ($9 billion), compared to 2.12 trillion in the fiscal year ending this month, marking a jump of roughly 20% year over year. The announcement came as Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif's government unveiled its annual federal budget for the 2025-26 fiscal year on Tuesday. The surge in military spending came despite Pakistan battling weak finances and tremendous economic challenges. In fact, the overall spending planned in the budget is down 7% to 17.57 trillion rupees ($62 billion). Kashmir: Students struggle with trauma from air attacks To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video Pakistan army's popularity surge Pakistan and India recently witnessed a major flare-up in violence, the worst since the rivals' last open conflict in 1999, which sparked fears that it could spiral into a full-blown war. It began after a deadly attack on Hindu tourists in Pahalgam town — in India-administered Kashmir — on April 22, in which 26 people, mostly Hindu men, were killed. New Delhi blamed Islamabad for backing the attack, an allegation Pakistan denies. The crisis soon spiraled into a major military confrontation between the two nations. After four days of fierce fighting, however, both sides agreed to a ceasefire. Against this backdrop, the higher defense expenditures "aren't in the least surprising," said Michael Kugelman, a South Asia expert at the Washington-based Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. "There's the fundamental issue of needing to ensure sufficient resources in the aftermath of a serious conflict with India. Furthermore, the military, which surely sought these increased expenditures, is emboldened following the conflict and will look to push its agenda more rigorously," Kugelman told DW. Pakistan's military, the country's most powerful institution, had been unpopular in recent years, as many people accused it of meddling in politics and keeping the country's most popular politician, Imran Khan, away from power. But the military establishment has seen a surge in popularity after the recent fighting. "Finally, with the nation fully behind Pakistan in its fight with India, the civilian and military leadership know that they have the political space to take these types of measures," remarked Kugelman. Pakistan celebrates its military after standoff with India To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video Struggling with economic crisis Pakistan has been dealing with an economic crisis for years, marked by high inflation, a depreciating currency and International Monetary Fund (IMF) bailouts. As recently as 2023, the country was staring at risk defaulting on its debts. But a multibillion-dollar support package from the IMF has helped steady the economy and bring inflation under control. In January, Pakistan agreed to an unprecedented 10-year plan with the World Bank which will see $20 billion (€19.4 billion) worth of loans for the cash-strapped economy. Sharif's government now projects 4.2% economic expansion in 2025-26. Growth this fiscal year is likely to be 2.7%, against an initial target of 3.6% set in the budget last year. The reliance on the IMF means that Islamabad will have to fulfil the institution's requirements for budget management and economic reforms. The IMF has urged Pakistan to widen the tax base through reforms which include taxing agriculture, retail, and real estate. Analysts say Sharif's government plans to offset the increased defense budget with cuts to spending in other areas, including welfare. "It's a big hike and will have to be funded from somewhere. Of course, it will have implications for expenditure on the social sectors and on development schemes," Safiya Aftab, an Islamabad-based economist, told DW. "It's unfortunate that Pakistan is once again implementing the economic policy of a security state, but to be honest, the situation on the borders makes this inevitable," she added. What role does China play in India-Pakistan tensions? To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video False priorities? Pakistan has faced criticism for years for its heavy military spending at the expense of health, education and social welfare. Kugelman said raising military expenditure while slashing spending on welfare services could worsen the hardships faced by common people who are already struggling to cope with the effects of the economic crisis. "But those in power would contend that recent weeks show the imperative, for national security reasons, of these moves," he underlined. "And they would also point to some improvements in macroeconomic stability, including lower inflation, though surely that wouldn't be a winning argument for the many Pakistanis still dealing with economic stress." Farhan Bokhari, an economic analyst, said that there's broad support in Pakistan for higher defense spending, "for the moment," pointing to the tensions with India. "But for the long term, Pakistan's economy needs to grow faster to be able to support larger defense spending in the years to come," he noted. Edited by: Srinivas Mazumdaru
India.com
18-05-2025
- Politics
- India.com
‘Unreliable Ally': US Actions Push India Closer to ‘No-Drama' Partners Russia, France?
US foreign policy expert Michael Kugelman recently highlighted contrasting dynamics in India's bilateral relationships with key global players. Drawing from past incidents and diplomatic developments, he pointed to multiple moments over the past two decades that have tested Indian public perception of the United States as a strategic partner. While India maintains steady and long-standing relationships with countries such as Russia and France, ties with the US have at times encountered turbulence. Kugelman referred to this difference by describing India's interactions with Russia and France as 'no-drama', in contrast to more complex and occasionally strained episodes with Washington. There've been times over the last 2 decades when in India, public trust in US as a partner is called into question & contrasted w/India's reliable, no-drama relationships w/Russia, France etc. Khobragade affair, late US response to India COVID crisis, Pannun. And right now. — Michael Kugelman (@MichaelKugelman) May 15, 2025 In each case, these moments have been smoothed over on policy levels. But public perceptions of the US and its reliability as evinced by some key Indian constituencies continues to be an issue that flares up periodically. Properly addressing this remains a work in progress. — Michael Kugelman (@MichaelKugelman) May 15, 2025 He cited a few examples – the 2013 'Khobragade affair', in which Devyani Khobragade, then India's deputy consul general in New York, was arrested on charges related to visa fraud. The incident had led to a diplomatic standoff and public outcry in India. Another reference was made to the COVID-19 pandemic, during which the US response to India's health crisis drew criticism for its perceived delay. More recently, the 'Pannun case' – a reported plot to assassinate Khalistani leader Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, allegedly involving Indian agents – resurfaced concerns about bilateral trust. The US responded with a diplomatic warning to India, while authorities in India stated that they were reviewing the shared intelligence. Kugelman's comments also came in the backdrop of recent claims about former US President Donald Trump's involvement in India-Pakistan relations. According to reports, Trump intervened during a cross-border escalation between India and Pakistan, using trade-related pressure to influence India's response. While a ceasefire was eventually agreed upon, his public assertion of credit reignited discussions about the consistency and reliability of the US as a strategic partner. Other analysts also weighed in. Strategic affairs expert Brahma Chellaney said the episode highlights broader concerns about strategic alignment. Meanwhile, former Pentagon official Michael Rubin said that Trump's comments may have economic repercussions, particularly for US defense firms eyeing India as a key market. These developments together add to the ongoing discourse about India's approach to global partnerships, particularly in terms of trust, predictability and long-term cooperation.
India Gazette
12-05-2025
- Politics
- India Gazette
Foreign Expert says PM Modi's address highlights India's strong response to terror attack
Washington DC [US], May 13 (ANI): In the wake of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's national address on Operation Sindoor, Washington DC-based South Asia analyst Michael Kugelman said that the address underscored India's resolve to respond to terrorist threats with 'decisive and robust' action and not being deterred by nuclear weapons. Kugelman further noted that the most significant part of the address was the clarity with which PM Modi drew a line between terrorist groups and the governments that sponsor them. While speaking with ANI, Kugelman said, 'It clearly emphasised the fact that India was responding to a horrific terrorist attack that in India's view is linked to Pakistan, and also not surprisingly, there are significant levels of expressions of support for the Indian military forces. I think that what really stands out is the focus on the current operation and India's position moving forward when it comes to the issue of terrorism.' He added, 'I was really struck in his comments about India having essentially reset the terms for how it will respond to these types of attacks in the future and in terms of emphasising responding decisively and robustly and not being deterred by nuclear weapons. One of the final points he made is not distinguishing between terrorists and the government that sponsors them...' PM Modi on Monday reiterated India's firm stance on talks with Pakistan, saying any future discussions will be confined to terrorism and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK). In his address to the nation following Operation Sindoor, PM Modi said, 'Today, I would also like to tell the global community that our stated policy has been: if there are talks with Pakistan, it will be only on terrorism; and if there are talks with Pakistan, it will be only on Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK).' Prime Minister Modi warned that Pakistan's support for terrorism could lead to its downfall. He added that achieving peace is impossible without destroying the terrorist infrastructure. 'The way the Pakistani army and the Pakistan government are encouraging terrorism, it will destroy Pakistan one day. If Pakistan wants to survive, it will have to destroy its terror infrastructure. There is no other way to peace,' he added. India had launched a surgical strike on terror launch pads along LoC in 2016 and aerial strikes on a terror camp in Pakistan in 2019. Twenty-six people were killed in the ghastly terror attack in Pahalgam on April 22. India responded through Operation Sindoor and launched precision strikes on terror infrastructure in Pakistan and Pakistan-Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (PoK), in which over 100 terrorists were killed. The subsequent aggression by Pakistan was appropriately responded to by the Indian Armed Forces, who also pounded Pakistan's air bases. (ANI)
